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Federal Reserve study links illegal immigration to higher home prices

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Federal Reserve study links illegal immigration to higher home prices

A new Federal Reserve working paper found the record surge in illegal immigration during the Biden administration triggered higher home prices and rents.

The findings arrive as immigration remains a polarizing political issue. Republicans argue former President Joe Biden’s border policies strained housing and public resources, while Democrats say immigration helped ease labor shortages and supported economic growth.

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THE KEY STRATEGY RED STATES ARE USING TO LOWER HOUSING COSTS REVEALED

A home for sale in California.

A “for sale” sign is posted outside a single family home for sale on Aug. 22, 2025, in Pasadena, California. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

The paper, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, combines immigration court records with government administrative data to measure how the unprecedented wave of illegal immigration between 2021 and 2024 affected local labor and housing markets.

The authors caution the study is a preliminary draft circulated for professional comment and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.

Researchers found the influx of illegal immigrants boosted employment with little measurable effect on wages but significantly increased housing demand.

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ONE TYPE OF PROPERTY IS QUIETLY SAVING AMERICANS THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS

President Joe Biden walks along a stretch of the U.S.-Mexico border in El Paso Texas, Jan. 8, 2023.

President Joe Biden walks along a stretch of the U.S.-Mexico border in El Paso, Texas, on Jan. 8, 2023. (AP Newsroom)

A 1% increase in unauthorized workers relative to a local labor force corresponded with roughly a 1% increase in overall employment, with no evidence the immigration surge reduced average wages. The same 1% increase, however, was associated with a roughly 2.2% rise in home prices and a 1.4% increase in rents. Researchers found little evidence that homebuilding expanded enough to meet the added demand, concluding the influx acted as a housing demand shock in markets where supply was already constrained.

The economists estimate unauthorized immigrant worker flows accounted for about 30% of employment growth, roughly 30% of home-price growth, and about 20% of rent growth in the average metropolitan area between March 2021 and March 2024. 

They stress these estimates apply to the average metro area studied and do not suggest immigration was the sole driver of rising housing costs nationwide.

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Builders lift wood frames that are part of a home.

Contractors raise a framed wall in Folsom, California, on March 6, 2025. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The paper describes 2021 through 2024 as an “unprecedented boom” in illegal immigration. 

Citing Congressional Budget Office estimates, the authors said net unauthorized immigration added roughly 7 million people to the U.S. population before slowing sharply in mid-2024.

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Greene County Bancorp's Surge Doesn't Mean It's Time To Pile In

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Janus Henderson Forty Fund Q4 2025 Commentary (MUTF:JACCX)

Greene County Bancorp's Surge Doesn't Mean It's Time To Pile In

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Iran exploring oil sales to Japan, buyers seek longer sanctions waiver, sources say

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Iran exploring oil sales to Japan, buyers seek longer sanctions waiver, sources say

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Zoetis Stock: The 60% Decline Was Justified, But Shares Are Finally Buyable (NYSE:ZTS)

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Zoetis Stock: The 60% Decline Was Justified, But Shares Are Finally Buyable (NYSE:ZTS)

This article was written by

Ian Bezek is a former hedge fund analyst at Kerrisdale Capital. He has spent the decade living in Latin America, doing the boots-on-the ground research for investors interested in markets such as Mexico, Colombia, and Chile. He also specializes in high-quality compounders and growth stocks at reasonable prices in the US and other developed markets. Ian leads the investing group Ian’s Insider Corner. Features of the group include: the Weekend Digest which covers everything from new ideas to updates on current holdings and macro analysis, trade alerts, an active chat room, and direct access to Ian. Learn More.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PFE either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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JCE: Strong Total Returns With An Attractive Discount (NYSE:JCE)

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JCE: Strong Total Returns With An Attractive Discount (NYSE:JCE)

This article was written by

Nick Ackerman is a former financial advisor using his experience to provide coverage on closed-end funds and exchange-traded funds. Nick has previously held Series 7 and Series 66 licenses and has been investing personally for over 14 years.He contributes to the investing group CEF/ETF Income Laboratory along with leader Stanford Chemist, and Juan de la Hoz and Dividend Seeker. They help members benefit from income and arbitrage strategies in CEFs and ETFs by providing expert-level research. The service includes: managed portfolios targeting safe 8%+ yields, actionable income and arbitrage recommendations, in-depth analysis of CEFs and ETFs, and a friendly community of over a thousand members looking for the best income ideas. These are geared towards both active and passive investors. The vast majority of their holdings are also monthly-payers, which is great for faster compounding as well as smoothing income streams. Learn More.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SPXX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Death toll from Venezuela quakes rises to 3,342

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Death toll from Venezuela quakes rises to 3,342


Death toll from Venezuela quakes rises to 3,342

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Equity REITs: Takeaways From REITWeek 2026

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Equity REITs: Takeaways From REITWeek 2026

Equity REITs: Takeaways From REITWeek 2026

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Stock Futures Kick Off Week that Includes Fed Minutes

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Small-Caps Just Had Their Best First Half Since 1991. The Rally Isn’t Over.

Stock Futures Kick Off Week that Includes Fed Minutes

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BMW CEO touts US manufacturing push with $1.7B South Carolina EV expansion

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BMW CEO touts US manufacturing push with $1.7B South Carolina EV expansion

BMW is “here for the long game” in the U.S. as it completes a $1.7 billion South Carolina investment and prepares to build fully electric vehicles at its largest plant, its North America CEO told FOX Business.

Sebastian Mackensen, president and CEO of BMW of North America, said the investment marks a major milestone in the automaker’s U.S. manufacturing strategy and proves BMW is doing more than making promises.

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“One thing is to announce an investment and another one is to actually do the investment, implement it, [and] build the expansion of this facility,” Mackensen told FOX Business.

The expansion, first announced in 2022, includes a $1 billion upgrade at BMW’s Plant Spartanburg and a $700 million battery assembly facility in nearby Woodruff, South Carolina.

BMW COMPLETES $1.7 BILLION SOUTH CAROLINA EXPANSION, UNVEILS ALL-ELECTRIC X5

Sebastian Mackenson said BMW’s investment in Plant Spartanburg shows the company is not just announcing plans, but delivering on them.

Sebastian Mackensen, president and CEO of BMW of North America, said the investment marks a major milestone in the automaker’s U.S. manufacturing strategy and proves BMW is doing more than making promises. (FOX Business / Fox News)

As part of that push, BMW also unveiled the all-new X5 on Tuesday at Plant Spartanburg. The automaker said its new iX5, the first battery-electric BMW X5, will become the first fully electric BMW assembled in the U.S. when production begins at the end of this year.

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The iX5 is expected to be the first of several electric models built in South Carolina. At least five additional fully electric BMW models are expected to be assembled in the U.S. by 2030, according to the company.

The move comes as some automakers have scaled back or delayed their EV plans. BMW, however, says it is staying the course.

“We are convinced that the EV is a relevant and here-to-stay drivetrain option,” Mackensen said. “Will it be the majority of vehicles sold? Probably not in the U.S., at least not in the foreseeable future. But at the same time, we are exporting to global markets from this plant.”

FORD ROLLS INTO NATION’S CAPITAL WITH HISTORIC CAR SHOWCASE CELEBRATING AMERICA’S 250TH

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That global reach has long been central to Plant Spartanburg’s role within BMW’s manufacturing network.

Plant Spartanburg, first established more than three decades ago, currently assembles BMW vehicles including the X3, X6, X7 and XM for both U.S. and international customers

Mackensen said BMW’s growth in South Carolina has also had a broader economic impact, helping attract suppliers and other businesses to the region.

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“It has really had a changing impact on the whole community, not only in Greenville [and] Spartanburg, but also for the entire state,” Mackensen said. 

That local footprint is also part of a larger U.S. strategy. Mackensen said the U.S. is BMW’s second-largest market by volume and remains central to the company’s global plans.

POLESTAR BANNED FROM US MARKET UNDER RULE TARGETING CHINA-LINKED CONNECTED VEHICLES

Vehicles await export at the Port of Charleston in Charleston, S.C., with cargo ships and the Arthur Ravenel Jr. Bridge in the background.

Vehicles await export at the Port of Charleston in South Carolina. (BMW / Fox News)

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“It shows our clear commitment to the U.S. market,” Mackensen told FOX Business. “It makes a lot of sense to assemble your cars where your customers are.”

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BMW said it has been the largest automotive exporter from the U.S. by value for more than a decade, exporting nearly 3 million vehicles worth more than $113 billion from 2014 through 2025.

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FOX Business’ Louis Casiano contributed to this report.

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Trump called FIFA head to seek review of US player red card: source

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Trump called FIFA head to seek review of US player red card: source


Trump called FIFA head to seek review of US player red card: source

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EasyJet’s flight path from start-up to takeover deal

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EasyJet’s flight path from start-up to takeover deal


EasyJet’s flight path from start-up to takeover deal

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