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Health goals don’t collapse in one moment. They erode. Tuesday the routine slips. Wednesday sleep is poor. By the following month, meals are reactive and the plan that felt solid in January has quietly disappeared. Nobody decided to stop. Things just drifted.

Weight management works the same way. Effort alone rarely explains the gap between intention and result. Biology runs a parallel process, one that operates independently of how motivated someone feels on a given morning. For a growing number of people, the real question is how habits and clinical support can fit together without making daily life feel like a medical programme.

Oral semaglutide changes part of that picture. A tablet format may remove one barrier for people who struggle with injections, which is why the Wegovy oral pill has entered the wider discussion. Worth examining what that actually means in practice.

UK Regulatory Status and Anticipated MHRA Approval Timeline

Semaglutide as an oral tablet for weight management is still developing in the UK, not a settled patient route yet. The FDA approved oral semaglutide 25mg in December 2025. In the UK, the 7.2mg Wegovy pen cleared MHRA review in April 2026. The oral tablet? No confirmed UK decision yet.

Private access and NHS routes may move at different speeds. They often do. Costs will vary depending on provider, assessment structure, and what follow-up looks like in each case. Anyone researching this now is doing so before full availability lands. That context matters for setting realistic expectations.

What the MHRA Approval Means for UK Patients

Approval of an injectable format does not automatically transfer to an oral one. Each formulation goes through its own process. What the injectable approval does show is that regulators have assessed higher-dose semaglutide for obesity under a separate formulation. That is useful context. It is not a guarantee of timeline for the tablet.

For people trying to understand how a tablet format might fit into their daily routine, the Wegovy pill is a clinical question first, not a lifestyle upgrade. Eligibility, medical history, side effects, and follow-up need proper review before any decision gets made. That review shapes whether treatment is appropriate, not just available.

Individual response varies. Clinical history, existing conditions, other medications. All of these shape what a prescriber recommends. Two people with similar health profiles may end up on different treatment paths depending on which format fits their actual daily life. That fit matters more than most people expect when treatment is meant to run for months.

Clinical Evidence from the OASIS-4 Trial and Efficacy Outcomes

Sixty-four weeks. Daily oral semaglutide 25mg. OASIS-4 participants recorded notable body weight reductions across the study period. Entry criteria: BMI 30 or above, or 27 and above where weight-related health conditions were present.

Two participants on the same protocol for the same duration can produce different outcomes. The trial cannot control for everything. Data supports efficacy. It does not promise a specific number on any individual’s scale. Starting from that position is more useful than starting from best-case projections.

What the trial does confirm: oral delivery of semaglutide produces clinically relevant weight reduction in eligible adults. Wegovy tablets work through the same receptor pathway as the injectable form. That is the foundation.

How Oral Semaglutide Compares to Injectable Wegovy

Wegovy by injection: 2.4mg, once weekly. Wegovy tablets: 25mg, once daily. GLP-1 receptor agonist action in both cases, influencing appetite and glycaemic control through the same biological mechanism. Outcomes appear to sit in a comparable range across available trial data.

Adherence drives the choice here, not pharmacology. Some people may not want to inject themselves at home over an extended period. Not a weakness. A real barrier that determines whether treatment starts at all. Removing the needle may reduce the training requirement, the anxiety, and the logistical weight of managing an injectable long-term.

Starting a format that gets maintained beats starting a theoretically better format that gets abandoned. That distinction is clinical, not just practical.

Dosing, Administration, and Safety Considerations

Empty stomach. Non-negotiable. Oral semaglutide 25mg needs 30 minutes clear before food or other medications. Built into how the tablet absorbs. Cannot be worked around.

Treatment starts low. Dose titrates upward over several weeks to reach 25mg. Standard for GLP-1 therapies. Nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea, constipation show up commonly in the early weeks. Most run mild to moderate. Many settle as adjustment progresses. Clinical assessment covers contraindications, medical history, and suitability before any prescription is issued. That step is where appropriateness gets determined, not after.

Practical Adherence Strategies for Daily Oral Dosing

Same time. Every morning. Before food. Before anything else. Vague plans to take it “in the morning” produce missed doses by week three. A single smartphone alarm, set once, removes the daily decision. It fires. The tablet gets taken. This is where daily routine does more than motivation.

Pill organisers add a physical confirmation layer. One glance replaces the need to remember. Useful on the mornings when memory is not reliable.

Missing one daily dose may carry less individual impact than missing a weekly injection. That is the maths. Across a full month, though, irregular patterns accumulate. Week one habits tend to stick. Week four corrections rarely do.

UK Access Pathways, Cost Considerations, and Patient Journey

Private prescription routes may move ahead of NHS funding. Costs will vary by provider, assessment model, and follow-up structure. These details should become clearer as approval progresses.

If approval is confirmed, GPhC-registered online pharmacies with clinician oversight may become one access route. A typical regulated process would involve clinical consultation, eligibility review, and a prescription only where criteria are met.

Weight management over the long term comes down to whether the format, the routine, and the clinical structure hold together across months. A treatment route can look strong on paper and still fail if it does not fit the morning, the workday, the meal pattern, and the person using it.

That is why the conversation around tablets matters. Not because a different format removes the need for assessment, follow-up, or daily habits. It does not. But for some patients, a routine that feels easier to keep may make the whole structure easier to maintain.

A high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is being closely watched across global markets, with investors, policymakers and businesses hoping for signs of stability after years of escalating geopolitical friction between the world’s two largest economies.

Speaking to ET Now, market strategist from China Market Research Group & Author Shaun Rein described the summit as one of the most consequential diplomatic engagements in recent years, particularly against the backdrop of trade disputes, AI rivalry and mounting tensions in West Asia.

“This is an important meeting. This is the first time that an American president has stepped foot in China nine years since Trump started the trade war back in 2017-2018 and the whole world, India, United States, Europe, Africa, we have all suffered from the geopolitical split and tension between the US and China,” Rein said.

He pointed out that export controls imposed by Washington on advanced technologies, including AI chips and semiconductors, had intensified the economic divide between the two nations. China, in response, has leveraged its dominance in refined rare earths, a critical input for global manufacturing and electronics.

“As America has forbidden and put export controls on all types of products from Nvidia chips to being exported to China, China has retaliated by holding the Sword of Damocles over the rest of the world, saying, will we send out Chinese refined rare earths or not,” he said.

West Asia Crisis Likely to Dominate Discussions
While trade and AI remain major strategic concerns, Rein believes the worsening conflict in West Asia could overshadow economic discussions during the summit.
“Well, trade, AI, and just competing visions of the global world order is very important. But unfortunately, because Trump has had a self-inflicted wound by invading Iran through bombs, that is what the large part of the discussion is going to be,” Rein said.
According to him, Washington is increasingly dependent on Beijing’s diplomatic leverage to ease tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route.

He argued that China’s interests align more closely with restoring stability in the Middle East rather than prolonging conflict.

“We have to remember they do $108 billion of trade with Saudi Arabia, $103 billion of trade with UAE, and only officially about 15 billion of trade with Iran,” Rein noted, adding that China’s broader economic priorities in the region outweigh its ties with Tehran.

Rein also said China would prefer an end to regional tensions as inflationary pressures begin to re-emerge domestically.

“So, China says, what, let us try to work with the United States and get a win to fix the problems in the Middle East because I do not think that China is as close to Iran as a lot of Americans believe they are,” he added.

Supply Chain Decoupling Still Intact
Despite expectations surrounding the summit, Rein warned that the broader decoupling of US and Chinese supply chains is unlikely to reverse anytime soon.

He said Chinese companies and policymakers no longer trust long-term access to American technology after years of export restrictions and sanctions.

“So, the Chinese will never ever after a decade of being harassed and oppressed by the United States build their AI and their technology sector on the American tech stack anymore. They are going to focus on indigenous innovation,” he said.

Rein suggested investors should increasingly watch domestic Chinese technology players rather than American firms dependent on China exposure.

“So, investors should be looking at Chinese players like Cambricon, SMIC, Hua Hong. The Chinese players are going to do well because nobody in China can trust that they will be able to rely on the American tech stack,” he said.

He also argued that countries across the Global South have become wary of relying too heavily on US-controlled technologies and financial systems after Washington’s repeated use of sanctions and economic restrictions.

China Holds Stronger Position, Says Rein
On the balance of power between Washington and Beijing, Rein said China currently holds greater leverage in both trade and geopolitics.

“China clearly has won the trade war. China clearly has more leverage over the United States right now,” he said.

According to Rein, China’s influence extends far beyond rare earths and electronics, covering pharmaceuticals, antibiotics and key industrial supply chains that are deeply embedded in the global economy.

“It is the fact that China also controls along with India a combined 95% of antibiotic production. It also makes almost 100% of ibuprofen and paracetamol,” he said.

Rein argued that deteriorating ties between the United States and several traditional allies had further strengthened China’s global position.

“But the problem is Trump has ticked off his allies, Canada, France, Germany, and these leaders of these countries have all visited Xi Jinping and made the pilgrimage to China in the last two months,” he said.

India’s Strategic Position Under Spotlight
Rein also spoke extensively about India’s evolving role amid shifting global alliances, suggesting that India has the potential to emerge as one of the world’s leading superpowers over the long term.

“I believe India should and will become one of the three major global superpowers,” he said.

However, he questioned New Delhi’s current balancing strategy between Washington and Beijing and argued that India should adopt a more pragmatic relationship with China.

“I am happy to see that direct flights between the two countries have come back. I am glad to see that more visas are being issued both ways. Both countries should be working together to offset western imperialism,” Rein said.

He added that India should remain cautious about becoming overly dependent on the United States.

“You need to understand that the United States will do all that it can to prevent India from getting too strong,” he said.

As markets assess the possible outcomes of the Trump-Xi meeting, analysts believe even a temporary easing of rhetoric between the two nations could provide relief to global businesses grappling with geopolitical uncertainty, disrupted supply chains and shifting trade policies.

GB News Radio has emerged as the fastest-growing network station in the country, with the latest RAJAR figures showing a 21 per cent surge in year-on-year reach that has pushed the upstart broadcaster decisively ahead of its closest commercial rivals.

The station, which forms part of the wider GB News operation, attracted 676,000 listeners during the first quarter of 2026, comfortably overtaking Times Radio on 604,000 and Talk on 560,000. It is a result that will sharpen the competitive temperature in a speech-radio market that has seen heavy investment from News UK, Global and Bauer over the past five years.

GB News Radio’s 21 per cent expansion outstripped Talk’s 16 per cent uplift and the 6 per cent rise recorded by LBC, the long-standing market leader in the news-and-talk format. Times Radio, by contrast, saw its annual reach contract by 3 per cent, raising fresh questions about the trajectory of News UK’s five-year-old digital station.

Listening hours at GB News Radio reached 4.35 million in the quarter, a modest 1 per cent improvement on the same period last year but a figure the broadcaster argues underlines deepening listener loyalty alongside the headline reach growth.

Much of the momentum has come from younger demographics that commercial talk-radio operators have historically struggled to capture. The station reported a 20 per cent increase among adults aged 35 to 54 over the past quarter, with the 35-to-54 male audience climbing 30 per cent — a cohort that remains particularly prized by advertisers in the speech genre.

Ben Briscoe, head of programming at GB News, said the numbers reflected a clear shift in listening habits. “These figures show more and more people are turning to GB News Radio for breaking news, opinion and coverage of the day’s biggest stories,” he said. “The continued growth reflects the hard work, commitment and first-class journalism produced by our teams across the schedule every day. Just like on TV, GB News Radio is leaving its rivals trailing behind.”

The radio performance mirrors a strong run for the group’s television operation. GB News was the most-watched news channel in the UK on local election results day, with BARB figures showing an average audience of 185,700 on Friday 8 May. That was 56 per cent ahead of Sky News, which drew 119,000 viewers, and almost double the BBC News Channel’s 93,200.

During April, the channel averaged 89,500 viewers and a 1.59 per cent share, edging Sky News on 86,200 viewers and a 1.53 per cent share. Between July 2025 and April 2026, GB News averaged 90,300 viewers and a 1.47 per cent share, ahead of the BBC News Channel’s 83,900 viewers (1.37 per cent) and Sky News’s 72,000 viewers (1.18 per cent), capping a ten-month run in which the broadcaster has consistently outperformed both established rivals.

For the wider commercial broadcasting sector, the latest RAJAR data points to a more fragmented and contestable speech-radio market than at any point in the past decade, and one in which the newest entrant is now setting the pace.

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Britain’s economy delivered a rare piece of good news this morning, with the Office for National Statistics reporting that GDP expanded by 0.3 per cent in March, comfortably ahead of City forecasts and capping a first-quarter growth rate of 0.6 per cent.

The figures, the last to capture activity before the outbreak of the Iran war began rattling global markets, point to a services-led upswing that has handed the Chancellor a brief reprieve as she braces for what most economists agree will be a far bleaker summer.

According to the ONS, the services sector, still the engine room of the British economy, grew by 0.8 per cent over the quarter, with production nudging up 0.2 per cent and construction rising 0.4 per cent. Wholesale, computer programming and advertising were the standout performers.

“Growth picked up in the first quarter of the year, led by broad-based increases across the services sector,” said Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS. “Within that, wholesale, computer programming and advertising performed particularly well.”

For the country’s 5.5 million small and medium-sized enterprises, however, the headline number masks a far more uncomfortable reality. The March print captures only the opening days of the conflict; April and May data, when they land, are expected to reveal the full cost of the disruption ripping through the Strait of Hormuz and into global supply chains.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves seized on the figures to defend her fiscal strategy, telling reporters that “now is not the time to put our economic stability at risk”.

“Today’s figures show the government has the right economic plan,” Reeves said. “The choices I have made as Chancellor mean our economy is in a stronger position as we deal with the costs of the war in Iran. This government is getting on with the job of building an economy that is stronger, more resilient, and prepared for the future.”

Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride was quick to puncture the mood, arguing that “the chaos surrounding the Labour leadership is destabilising Britain’s economy”. His intervention reflects mounting nerves in Westminster, where Sir Keir Starmer is fighting to hold his position amid backbench unrest.

Forecasters have already sharpened their pencils. Capital Economics has slashed its 2026 UK growth projection, with deputy chief UK economist Ruth Gregory warning that “prolonged political instability” represents “an extra downside risk” to her outlook.

“We would be very surprised if growth doesn’t weaken from May as the temporary boost from stockpiling unwinds and the squeeze on households’ real incomes from higher energy prices intensifies,” Gregory said. “In our adverse scenario, the economy suffers a mild recession. So the economy will probably give whoever is Prime Minister a rough ride.”

The energy picture is doing most of the damage. Brent crude has surged by roughly 50 per cent since March on fears of sustained supply disruption, and as a net energy importer Britain is more exposed than most of its G7 peers. Higher import costs are expected to filter rapidly into inflation, while weakening global demand threatens to weigh on the export book just as Britain’s manufacturers had begun to find their feet.

For SME owners, the practical consequences are already taking shape. Survey data shows consumer confidence has fallen sharply since the conflict began, and business investment, which had been showing tentative signs of recovery, is widely expected to stall as boardrooms wait for clarity on energy costs, interest rates and political direction.

The Treasury is understood to be poring over the latest figures ahead of an energy support package for businesses and households, with smaller firms in energy-intensive sectors lobbying hard for targeted relief.

Compounding the uncertainty, Reeves herself is reportedly weighing whether she could remain in her current role under a new Labour leader should Sir Keir be forced out. Bond traders are already pricing in a leftward shift, with gilt yields reflecting expectations that fiscal rules could be loosened and the current government’s growth policies quietly shelved.

For now, Sir Keir has dug in. Following Tuesday’s King’s Speech, in which he promised to “tear down” the status quo and pursue a “radical agenda”, the Prime Minister has cited the war as reason enough to remain at the helm. Whether anxious backbenchers, and equally anxious business owners, will share that assessment over the coming weeks remains very much an open question.

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For all the hand-wringing over privacy, Britain’s high streets, gyms and offices are about to be flooded with cameras hiding in plain sight.

The latest generation of so-called smart glasses, most notably Meta’s Ray-Ban range, has become one of the fastest-selling consumer electronics products in history, and the world’s largest technology companies are queuing up to follow suit.

The commercial momentum is undeniable. Meta has now shipped more than seven million pairs of its Ray-Ban smart glasses, made in partnership with Franco-Italian eyewear giant EssilorLuxottica, and the device accounts for more than 80 per cent of the global AI eyewear market, according to Counterpoint Research. Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s chief executive, told investors earlier this year that the glasses were “some of the fastest-growing consumer electronics in history”, a rare bright spot for a company that has spent tens of billions of dollars chasing the metaverse with limited return.

But the same product line is now sitting at the centre of a rapidly widening privacy row that could shape regulation, workplace policy and consumer trust for years to come, and which British SMEs, from beauty salons to cafés, are already being forced to think about.

A camera in every frame

The appeal of the device, on paper, is straightforward. The Ray-Ban model carries an almost invisible camera in the frame, small open-ear speakers in the arms, and a discreet indicator light. Wearers can take a photo, capture video, place a phone call or summon Meta’s AI assistant with a tap on the temple. For early adopters such as Mark Smith, a partner at advisory firm ISG, the attraction is mundane rather than futuristic. He wears his every day, he says, because they let him take a call or listen to a podcast while washing up without blocking out the room, and spare him from pulling out a phone to capture a moment while travelling.

The problem, as Smith himself concedes, is that nobody around the wearer can tell. The recording light is dim in daylight and easily missed. To the casual observer, the glasses look like any other pair of Wayfarers.

That ambiguity is now generating an uncomfortable run of headlines. Women have reported being approached on beaches, in shops and on the street by men wearing the glasses, who film their reactions to scripted pick-up lines or intrusive questions and then upload the clips for clicks. Victims often only discover the footage exists once it has gone viral — and any subsequent abuse with it. As photography in public places is broadly lawful in the UK, legal recourse is limited. One woman who asked for her secretly recorded video to be removed told the BBC she was informed by the poster that takedown was “a paid service”.

Lawsuits, content moderators and a Kenyan flashpoint

The reputational pressure on Meta has been compounded by the working conditions of those who train the AI behind the product. Content moderators in Kenya, tasked with reviewing footage captured through the glasses to build training data, alleged they had been required to watch graphic material including sexual activity and people using the lavatory. Two lawsuits followed from owners of the glasses themselves: one group claiming they had no idea such videos had ever been captured, another that they had not realised the footage was being shared back to Meta for human review.

The company has pointed to its terms of service, arguing that the possibility of human review in certain circumstances had been disclosed. A Meta spokesman, Tracy Clayton, told the BBC: “We have teams dedicated to limiting and combating misuse, but as with any technology, the onus is ultimately on individual people to not actively exploit it.”

That defence is unlikely to satisfy the regulators now circling the category. Meta is reportedly preparing to add facial recognition to a forthcoming version of the glasses, according to The New York Times, a feature that would allow wearers not just to record passers-by, but to identify them in real time.

The rest of Silicon Valley piles in

For all the controversy, the rest of Big Tech sees a market it cannot afford to miss. Apple is widely reported to be developing its own smart glasses, with Bloomberg suggesting a launch as soon as next year. Snap has confirmed a new, lighter pair of its Specs for 2026. Google, more than a decade on from the spectacular failure of Google Glass, pulled within two years of launch amid a furious privacy backlash, is preparing another attempt under its Android XR platform.

Analysts at Citigroup and researchers at UC Berkeley reckon as many as 100 million people could be wearing AI-enabled glasses within a few years. For investors, that points to a genuinely new product category, the first since the smartwatch. For regulators, public bodies and small businesses, it raises a far thornier question: how do you enforce existing rules against recording in courtrooms, hospitals, changing rooms, museums, cinemas and bathrooms when a meaningful slice of the population is wearing a camera on their face?

David Kessler, who leads the US privacy practice at international law firm Norton Rose Fulbright, says corporate clients are already wrestling with it. “There are some pretty dark places we could go here,” he said. “I’m not anti-technology in any sense, but as a societal matter… will I need to think [of being recorded] anytime I go out in public?”

What it means for British SMEs

For owner-managers in the UK, this is no longer a Silicon Valley curiosity. Anecdotes are mounting of customers and staff being caught off guard: the online influencer Aniessa Navarro recounted feeling “sick” when she realised mid-treatment that her beauty technician was wearing Meta’s glasses. The technician insisted they were neither charged nor recording, and were needed for prescription lenses — but the reputational risk for the salon is obvious.

Smaller businesses in hospitality, retail, healthcare, fitness and personal services should expect to revisit their acceptable-use policies, customer-facing signage and staff training. Under UK GDPR, covert recording of identifiable individuals on a business’s premises is likely to fall on the operator as well as the wearer once that footage is processed for any purpose beyond purely personal use. Insurers and trade bodies are likely to start asking questions.

Meta markets the product under the tagline “Designed for privacy, controlled by you”, and tells wearers not to record people who object and to switch the glasses off entirely in sensitive spaces. Those suggestions, by the company’s own admission, are honoured more in the breach than the observance. A growing genre of “prank” content sees young men in Ray-Bans persuading retail workers to smell candles laced with foul odours, getting members of the public to sign fake petitions, or filming themselves snatching food at drive-throughs.

A Google Glass moment, or a tipping point?

Andrew Bosworth, Meta’s chief technology officer, was asked on Instagram about “the stigma around people wearing smart glasses every day”. His answer leant heavily on the sales figures, arguing that the sheer volume shifted “suggest these are widely accepted”.

Not everyone is convinced. David Harris, a former Meta AI researcher now teaching at UC Berkeley and advising policymakers in the US and EU, believes the category is heading for the same wall that flattened Google Glass. “Technology like this is fundamentally an invasion of privacy and it’s really going to face more and more backlash,” he said.

The signs are already there. In December, a New York man posted a clip lamenting that a woman he had been filming on the subway had broken his Meta glasses. The internet did not commiserate. It crowned her a folk hero.

For Meta, for Apple, for Snap and for Google, the commercial prize from owning the face is enormous. But for an industry that has spent the past decade trying to rebuild public trust, betting the next platform on a device most bystanders cannot tell is a camera may yet prove the most expensive miscalculation of all.

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Global oil stockpiles are emptying at the fastest pace ever recorded as the war in the Middle East tips the world into a deepening supply deficit, in a development that threatens to derail the recovery of Britain’s small and medium-sized businesses just as they were beginning to find their footing.

The International Energy Agency has warned of an “unprecedented supply shock” following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping lane that until recently carried roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. The destruction of energy infrastructure across the Gulf has compounded the damage, leaving traders, hauliers and manufacturers scrambling to absorb costs that were unthinkable only six months ago.

The Paris-based agency now expects a shortfall of around 1.8 million barrels a day to materialise this year, a dramatic reversal of the 410,000-barrel surplus it had forecast as recently as last month. The shift has come even as the economic damage of the conflict pulls demand sharply lower.

“With global oil inventories already drawing at a record clip, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period,” the IEA cautioned.

Global supply is forecast to fall by an average 3.9 million barrels a day this year to 102.2 million, on the assumption that tanker traffic through the strait gradually resumes from the end of June. Even on that optimistic footing, the market is expected to remain in deficit until the final quarter.

Markets have whipsawed since hostilities between the United States and Iran erupted, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, surging to as high as $126 a barrel from just $60 at the start of the year. On Wednesday evening Brent snapped a three-day winning streak, sliding 2 per cent to $105.63 in its sharpest one-day retreat in a week. Even so, the benchmark is up 73.6 per cent year-to-date, a move that has rippled through every corner of the British economy from the haulage yards of the Midlands to the petrol forecourts of the south coast.

The IEA estimates that 246 million barrels have been drawn from inventories since the war began, leaving a perilously thin buffer against further shocks. In March the agency, which represents 32 member countries, released 400 million barrels of strategic reserves as a “stop-gap measure” in a co-ordinated bid to steady nerves.

Producers outside the Middle East have been pumping flat out to plug the gap. Forecasts for supply growth from the Americas have been raised by more than 600,000 barrels a day since January, to 1.5 million barrels a day this year, with Texan shale operators and Brazilian deepwater producers leading the charge. It has not been enough. Global supply slumped by a further 1.8 million barrels a day in April to 95.1 million, taking total losses since February to 12.8 million barrels a day. Output from Gulf states affected by the closure of the strait is running 14.4 million barrels a day below pre-war levels.

For Britain’s SME community, the second-order effects are arguably more punishing than the headline oil price itself. The IEA expects the economic fallout, rising inflation, slower growth and a sharp squeeze on household budgets, to drag global oil demand down by 420,000 barrels a day this year. That compares with a forecast decline of just 80,000 a day last month and projected growth of 850,000 barrels a day before the war began. It is the rapidity of the reversal, rather than its absolute scale, that has unnerved policymakers.

“Escalating demand destruction is underpinned by a surge in oil prices since the start of the war,” the IEA said. “Slower economic growth in both OECD and non-OECD countries is also beginning to weigh on consumer and industrial consumption.”

Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director, last month described the current squeeze as the worst energy crisis the world has ever faced, eclipsing the oil shocks of the 1970s. “We are indeed facing the biggest energy security threat in history,” he said.

For owner-managed businesses already absorbing higher employment costs, stubborn inflation and fragile consumer confidence, the message from Paris is sobering. With warnings that the conflict could push Britain to the brink of recession, the next quarter is shaping up to be the most demanding test of SME resilience in a generation.

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