Business
How Central Bank Decisions Quietly Shape the Silver Price
Central banks rarely mention silver in their official communications. Their press conferences focus on inflation, employment, and the policy rate, with the occasional nod to financial stability and currency markets.
Yet anyone who has watched the silver price move through a full rate-hiking and rate-cutting cycle at SD Bullion or any other reputable chart knows that monetary policy is doing more of the work than the headline numbers suggest. The relationship is indirect, sometimes delayed, and always eventually unmistakable.
The Real Interest Rate Channel
The cleanest link between central bank policy and silver runs through real interest rates, which are simply nominal rates minus expected inflation. When a central bank holds nominal rates below the rate at which prices are rising, the real rate is negative, and holding cash becomes a slow loss of purchasing power. Non-yielding assets, including silver, benefit because the opportunity cost of owning them has collapsed. When the central bank then cuts nominal rates further, as has happened repeatedly since mid-2025, the silver price tends to respond by grinding higher.
The Federal Reserve publishes its policy statements, minutes, and economic projections on a schedule that markets watch intensely. Precious metals investors who take the time to read those documents rather than skim headlines about them develop a meaningfully better sense of where the silver price is headed in the months following each meeting.
The Credibility Question
Central banks trade on credibility. When markets believe the central bank will do what it says, long-term inflation expectations stay anchored and precious metals remain a niche holding. When credibility wobbles, whether because of political interference, fiscal dominance, or a messy policy reversal, expectations drift higher and metals tend to benefit. The recent surge in the silver price is partly a story about industrial demand, but it is also a story about gradually eroding confidence in the ability of monetary authorities to keep a lid on inflation across multiple economies.
Currency Effects That Amplify the Move
When a major central bank eases policy while others hold firm, the corresponding currency tends to weaken on the foreign exchange market. A weaker dollar has historically been one of the most reliable tailwinds for the silver price, because silver is priced globally in dollars and a cheaper dollar makes the metal more affordable for buyers paying in euros, yen, or renminbi. The resulting foreign demand boost is often underestimated by investors who focus only on domestic buying behavior.
The Sovereign Gold Buying Spillover
Central banks themselves do not typically buy silver in meaningful quantities, but their gold purchases have indirect effects that eventually reach the silver market. The sustained accumulation of gold reserves by emerging market central banks over the past several years has supported the gold price and, through the gold-to-silver ratio, eventually drawn silver higher. More recently, Russia’s formal inclusion of silver in its state reserve framework marked the first meaningful break from the gold-only precedent and hints at a potential shift that other countries may eventually follow.
Why the Silver Price Reacts More Than Gold
Silver is a smaller, more volatile market than gold. When the same monetary policy news hits both metals, silver typically moves further in either direction. Investors who understand this relationship can use the gold-to-silver ratio as an early warning indicator. A sharp compression in the ratio after a central bank meeting suggests investors are rotating into the higher-beta metal and anticipating further easing. A widening ratio suggests the opposite. Neither signal is infallible, but both add information.
What to Watch on the Calendar
The Federal Reserve’s scheduled meetings set the tempo, but the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the People’s Bank of China all matter. A synchronized dovish turn across multiple majors produces the strongest moves in the silver price, because the corresponding currency effects reinforce rather than offset each other. Isolated dovish shifts at a single central bank produce more muted reactions, particularly when other majors are holding firm.
The Long View Across Cycles
Across multi-year horizons, the silver price has tended to rise during periods of easy monetary policy and weaker currencies, and to struggle during periods of tight policy and strong currencies. The 1970s, the 2000s, and the current decade all fit the pattern. The 1980s and much of the 1990s do not. An investor with the patience to sit through a full monetary cycle and the discipline to accumulate when real yields are deeply positive and silver is unloved has historically been rewarded for the waiting. That is a harder habit to build than watching the daily move, but it is the one that actually produces returns that matter.
A Realistic Framing
The silver price is not a puppet on a central bank string. Industrial demand, physical inventories, and investor sentiment all push and pull at the number every day. But the broad direction across quarters and years is closely tied to what central banks are doing, and to what markets believe they will do next. Investors who follow monetary policy with even moderate attention pick up on shifts months before most retail participants notice, and the returns that flow from that early awareness are exactly the returns that active silver allocation is supposed to generate.
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U.S. stocks are set to close out a blockbuster quarter with fresh momentum.
Major indexes are marching toward their best quarterly gains in years. The S&P 500 was up 14% through Monday, and the Nasdaq had jumped 20%-the biggest quarterly rallies for both since the second quarter of 2020.
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Business
From deep correction to fresh peaks: 10 stocks soar from 52-week lows to new highs in just three months
Pidilite Industries, makers of Fevicol and FeviQuick adhesives, hit a 52-week high of ₹1,620 on June 25 from a low of ₹1,259.5 on April 06 driven by a revival in sales volume across retail and industrial markets in the March quarter. It also reported a 300 basis point operating margin expansion to 23% amid lower raw material costs. The stock has clocked a 26% gain so far from the lows hit in April.
AgenciesA REVIVAL MADE IN JUST 3 MONTHS ON THE BACK OF MARCH QUARTER SIZZLE
Tata Communications has gained over 50% from the 52-week low of ₹1,323 hit on April 02 following multiple factors including expectations of growth revival in FY27 aided by improving operating leverage after net profit dropped by 21% past fiscal year, recent fund raising at attractive interest rate to fund short term requirements and positive scenario for enterprise communications demand.
Central Mine Planning & Design Institute (CMPDI), a public sector company that provides consultancy for coal and minerals mining, has undergone a major rerating. The company listed publicly on March 30 at a discount to offer price of ₹172 and sank to a 52-week low ₹150.3 on April 07. A strong fourth quarter performance and attractive valuation catapulted the stock to a peak of ₹267.9 on June 24. It currently trades at around ₹248, gaining 65% from the lows.
Amagi Media, which offers software solutions to global broadcasters and video streaming services, has also gained 65% from the 52-week low level amid expectations of a 15-20% increase in net profit for FY27.
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A new Costco warehouse and gas station are one step closer to coming to Downey, California, after city leaders approved a development agreement for the project, though not everyone is convinced the area needs another location.
The Downey City Council recently voted to move forward with plans for the new warehouse on Firestone Boulevard. City officials say the development is expected to create hundreds of jobs and generate new revenue for public services.
Mayor Pro Tem Horacio Ortiz Jr. praised the project in an Instagram post, calling it an investment in the city’s future.
“The Costco project will create hundreds of jobs, generate new revenue for essential city services, and strengthen our city’s future,” Ortiz Jr. wrote.
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A man pushes a trolley outside a Costco supermarket in Los Angeles, the United States, March 14, 2020. (Xinhua/Qian Weizhong via Getty Images / Getty Images)
The announcement drew mixed reactions from residents, with several questioning why another Costco is needed when warehouses already operate in nearby cities of Norwalk and Lakewood.
“Do y’all really need a Costco when the one at Norwalk is a 15 minute drive away?” one commenter wrote.
Another added, “We want a Trader Joe’s not another Costco.”
Others welcomed the project, arguing nearby Costco locations are often overcrowded and difficult to navigate.
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A Costco store in Vallejo, California, on Thursday, May 29, 2025. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg / Getty Images)
“The Norwalk Costco has been a nightmare since they redid the parking lot,” another resident wrote. “Happy to welcome one to Downey.”
According to local reports, the project includes relocating the existing Downey Nissan dealership before construction begins on the new Costco. The warehouse and gas station would be built on roughly 13.6 acres that include the former All American Home Center site and the current dealership property.
| Ticker | Security | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP. | 924.67 | -10.80 | -1.15% |
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The redevelopment package is expected to cost about $10.5 million and involves Costco Wholesale Corp., Downey Nissan and the owners of the surrounding properties.
The retailer still faces several steps before construction can begin. The project must complete a California Environmental Quality Act review and the city’s entitlement process, which officials expect to take up to a year. Construction of the relocated dealership and the new Costco warehouse would follow, putting the store’s opening several years away.
Business
Exclusive-Japan shifts to ambush intervention tactics against yen short sellers, sources say
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In the Nifty 500 pack, 15 stocks saw their closing prices cross above their 200-day moving average (DMA) on July 1, 2026. Of these, we have highlighted the top 9 stocks that gained more than 3% in the previous trading session, according to StockEdge.com’s technical scan data. Traders use the 200-day daily moving average (DMA) as a key indicator to determine the overall trend in a particular stock. As long as the stock is priced above the 200-day SMA on the daily timeframe, it is generally considered to be in an overall uptrend. Take a look:
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Business
Dividend alert! Last day to buy M&M, other 32 stocks for dividends worth Rs 473. How many do you own
Under SEBI’s T+1 settlement cycle, investors must purchase a company’s shares at least one trading day before the record date to ensure the shares are credited to their demat accounts in time, and they become eligible for the corporate action. Therefore, today is the last opportunity for investors to buy the shares so that they are credited to their accounts by Friday, making them eligible for the dividends.
Mahindra & Mahindra dividend
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is among the most notable names on the list. The automaker has fixed Friday as the record date for its highest-ever final dividend worth Rs 33 per share. This comes after the company paid a dividend worth Rs 25 last year and Rs 21 in 2024.
The XUV and Scorpio maker has declared 28 dividends since May, 2001. The stock has a dividend yield of 0.81%.
Tech Mahindra, Union Bank, Shriram Finance dividend
Tech Mahindra has also fixed Friday as the record date for its final dividend of Rs 36 per share. Union Bank of India and Shriram Finance meanwhile will turn ex-record date for their respective final dividend of Rs 5 per share and Rs 6 per share.
Bharat Forge will pay a dividend of Rs 6.5 per share, while Escorts Kubota will pay a dividend of Rs 33 per share. Max Healthcare, Raymond Realty and Redington meanwhile will turn ex-record date for dividend payouts worth Rs 2, Rs 2 and Rs 6 respectively.
Also read: Kajaria Ceramics share buyback worth Rs 297 crore opens on July 3 | Entitlement ratio, other details to know
Other stocks turning ex-record date for dividends
Swaraj Engines accounts for the highest dividend payout at Rs 110 per share, followed by JSW Dulux at Rs 50 per share.
Other companies which will effectively turn ex-record date for their respective dividends tomorrow include Akum Drugs (final dividend of Rs 1 per share and special dividend of Rs 2 per share), Alufluoride (Rs 4 per share), Balaji Amines (Rs 11 per share), BF Investment (Rs 10 per share), Biocon (Rs 0.5 per share), Can Fin Homes (Rs 8 per share), Dalmia Bharat Sugar and Industries (Rs 1.5 per share), DCM Shriram Industries (Rs 0.4 per share), Exide Industries (Rs 2 per share), Gloster (Rs 20 per share), Greenlam Industries (Rs 0.4 per share), Indus Finance (Rs 0.6 per share), Kirloskar Pneumatic Company (Rs 8.5 per share), Onward Technologies (Rs 8 per share), Sagarsoft (Rs 1.5 per share), SKF India Industrial (Rs 10 per share), SKF India (Rs 40 per share), SML Mahindra (Rs 23.5 per share), Thermax (final dividend of Rs 14 per share and special dividend of Rs 6 per share), Transcorp International (Rs 0.4 per share), Welspun Enterprises (Rs 3 per share) and Siddhika Coatings (Rs 4 per share).
Also read: Nomura expects IT firms to see ‘anaemic’ growth in FY27. Here are latest target prices for Infosys, TCS, and others
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Tourism WA’s managing director Anneke Brown has resigned after 18 months in the role.
Investing wisely does not have to be rocket science. It is about discipline and running the numbers. You don’t have to be like a grandmaster chess player playing the game twenty moves ahead of your opponent, you just need to understand how the pieces work.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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