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When BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust crossed $50 billion in assets under management, it became one of the fastest-growing ETFs in history. Institutional and retail investors alike poured money into a product that promised exposure to Bitcoin without the complexity of direct ownership—no private keys to manage, no custody arrangements to evaluate, no technical learning curve.

But a question lingered beneath the convenience: how do you actually know the Bitcoin is there?

Traditional ETF verification relies on auditors, custodians, and regulatory filings—intermediaries that investors trust to do their jobs correctly. Bitcoin exists on a public blockchain where every holding is theoretically visible to anyone who knows where to look. This creates an unprecedented opportunity for independent verification that simply doesn’t exist for traditional assets. The question is whether investors know how to use it.

The traditional trust model

Conventional ETF investors trust a chain of intermediaries, each with professional obligations and regulatory oversight.

The fund manager reports daily holdings. An independent auditor verifies those reports on a periodic basis—typically quarterly, sometimes annually. A regulated custodian holds the underlying assets with insurance and operational controls. The SEC oversees the structure, requiring specific disclosures and imposing penalties for misrepresentation. Multiple parties, each with reputations and legal standing to protect, create layers of assurance that add up to reasonable confidence.

This model has worked adequately for traditional assets over many decades. Gold ETFs rely on vault audits and bar lists. Bond ETFs rely on custodial records and trustee reports. The trust is distributed across institutions, and the system’s track record—while not perfect—has generally justified investor confidence.

Bitcoin ETFs initially adopted the same infrastructure framework. Coinbase Custody holds the underlying Bitcoin for most major issuers, providing institutional-grade security and insurance. Big Four accounting firms provide attestation services. Familiar intermediaries wrap the novel asset in traditional assurance mechanisms.

But Bitcoin offers something that gold bars and Treasury bonds don’t: the ability to verify holdings directly, in real time, without relying on any intermediary’s word.

On-chain verification explained

Every Bitcoin transaction is recorded on a public ledger that anyone can examine. If you know which addresses belong to an ETF’s custodian, you can check the balance yourself—not once a quarter when audit reports come out, but continuously, every ten minutes when new Bitcoin blocks are confirmed.

This isn’t theoretical capability—it’s practical reality. ETF tracking tools have identified the custodial wallets associated with major Bitcoin ETF issuers. Analysts monitor these addresses continuously, comparing on-chain balances to reported holdings and flagging any discrepancies.

How verification works in practice:

1. Identify custody wallets. Through a combination of transaction flow analysis, timing correlation with known ETF creation/redemption activity, and occasional public disclosures, determine which blockchain addresses the ETF uses for custody.
2. Monitor balances continuously. Track holdings in real time using Arkham dashboards or similar tools. Watch for additions when the ETF reports inflows, reductions when it reports outflows, and any movements that don’t correspond to reported activity.
3. Compare to reported data. Cross-reference on-chain balances against daily holdings reports, NAV calculations, and periodic audit attestations. Look for discrepancies in timing, amounts, or patterns that might indicate problems.

If an ETF reported holding 100,000 Bitcoin but the identified custody wallets showed only 80,000, the discrepancy would be visible to anyone watching. The gap might have innocent explanations—operational timing, wallet rotation, transactions in progress—but it would invite scrutiny and demand explanation.

What verification reveals

On-chain ETF monitoring has produced several insights beyond simple confirmation that reported holdings exist.

Custody patterns vary significantly across issuers. Different ETF sponsors manage their Bitcoin differently. Some concentrate holdings in a small number of addresses, making tracking straightforward. Others distribute across many wallets, complicating analysis but potentially improving security. Some move coins frequently for operational reasons; others let holdings sit untouched for extended periods. These operational differences aren’t apparent in marketing materials or regulatory filings.

Flows precede official filings. When ETFs buy or sell Bitcoin as part of creation/redemption processes, the transactions appear on-chain before daily holdings reports are published. Traders monitoring custodial addresses can observe accumulation or distribution in real time, potentially identifying flows hours before they’re officially disclosed.

Reported data has generally matched on-chain reality. For the major issuers, independent verification has largely confirmed reported holdings. This is reassuring—the traditional trust model appears to be working—but the capability to catch discrepancies provides discipline that wouldn’t otherwise exist. Issuers know they’re being watched, which may itself contribute to careful compliance.

The broader principle

Bitcoin ETF verification represents a specific case of a broader phenomenon: blockchain transparency enabling new forms of accountability and verification.

The same principle applies to corporate treasury holdings. When Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) claims to hold over 500,000 Bitcoin, that claim can be verified against identified corporate wallets—not just trusted based on earnings call commentary.

It applies to exchange reserves. The question of whether customer deposits actually exist on exchanges—dramatically relevant after the FTX collapse—can be addressed through proof-of-reserves attestations that leverage blockchain transparency.

It applies to stablecoin backing. Skeptics questioning whether USDT or USDC are actually backed by equivalent dollar reserves can examine on-chain stablecoin supply and compare to disclosed reserve holdings.

On-chain data provides verification capability unavailable for traditional assets. The skill is knowing how to access and interpret it.

For investors evaluating Bitcoin ETFs—or any entity claiming significant cryptocurrency holdings—platforms like Arkham Exchange make independent verification accessible alongside trading capabilities. The traditional trust model hasn’t been replaced, but it’s been supplemented by something new: the ability to check for yourself.

As on-chain verification becomes standard practice among sophisticated investors, it may influence competitive dynamics among ETF issuers. Sponsors that make verification easy—through clearer wallet identification, better alignment between on-chain activity and disclosures, or proactive transparency—may attract assets from verification-conscious investors. Expect more sophisticated verification tools and potentially regulatory recognition that blockchain-based audit capabilities represent a genuine advancement over traditional attestation models.

Mumbai: Indian stocks could open weak on Wednesday, tracking the sell-off in other Asian markets on Tuesday, with the US-Israeli attacks on Iran extending to the fourth straight day. Domestic financial markets were shut on Tuesday for Holi. With the Nifty breaching key technical supports on Monday, the near-term trend is flashing weakness. Analysts have flagged crucial support zones between 24,600 and 24,300 for near-term trading.

Dharmesh Shah, Head – Technical Research, ICICI Securities

With the Nifty falling below the psychological mark of 25,000, a strong support is placed in the 24,400-24,300 zone, which is a confluence of the 20-month exponential moving average (EMA)-held since the post-Covid lows-and the 80% retracement of the May-25 to Jan-26 rally (23,935-26,373). Meanwhile, on the upside, 25,200 would act as immediate resistance.

In the last four decades, there have been six major geopolitical escalations. On each occasion, a major bottom was formed once anxiety around the event settled down. Investing in such panic reactions with a long-term mindset has been rewarding. In the current scenario, post the knee-jerk reaction, we believe the market would stabilise.

We advise that dips should be capitalised on to build quality portfolios from a medium- to long-term perspective. Pullback options would remain open as long as Nifty holds the key support threshold of 24,100.

Ruchit Jain, Vice-President, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
The Nifty had already breached its 200-day EMA support of 25,240 at the end of last week, and negative global news flows led to a breach of the psychological support of 25,000 as well. The breach of supports one after another indicates a near term downtrend for our markets. The immediate supports for Nifty are placed at 24570 and 24330 which is August 2025 swing low.
The near-term trend remains negative, but the global news flows are likely to dominate the short-term trend for the equity markets. Global geopolitical tensions, rising Crude prices, FII selling and depreciating Rupee are all negative factors for equity markets. Thus, markets are likely to trade with higher volatility. Until the index holds below 25,000-25,100, weakness could be seen towards the 24,400-24,350 zones, while hurdles have shifted to 25,100 and then 25,250. Amol Athawale, VP – Technical Research, Kotak Securities
Currently, the market is trading significantly below both short-term and medium-term averages, and on daily charts, it appears to be in a weak formation, indicating a largely negative outlook.

We are of the view that for positional traders, 24,600 would act as a crucial support zone. If the market slips below this level, the correction could continue until 24,300. Further downside may also persist, potentially dragging the index to 24,000.

On the flip side, 25,000 remains the crucial resistance zone for the bulls. The current market texture is extremely volatile, and is expected to remain volatile in the near future.

Dubai International Airport (DXB), the world’s busiest hub for international passengers, remains partially operational as of March 4, 2026, with only a restricted number of flights permitted amid ongoing airspace closures and security concerns stemming from the escalating Middle East conflict involving U.S., Israeli and Iranian military actions.

Dubai Airports, the operator of DXB and the secondary Al Maktoum International Airport (DWC), confirmed that limited operations resumed on the evening of March 2 following a near-total suspension that began February 28. However, major carriers including flagship Emirates have extended the halt on all regular scheduled commercial flights to and from Dubai until 23:59 UAE time on March 4, prioritizing only select repatriation, cargo and repositioning services.

In its latest advisory on the official dubaiairports.ae website, Dubai Airports stated: “Limited airport operations have resumed with a small number of flights operating from DXB and DWC.” The authority urged passengers not to proceed to either airport unless directly contacted by their airline with a confirmed departure time, emphasizing that schedules remain highly fluid and subject to change based on regional airspace availability.

Emirates, which accounts for the majority of DXB traffic, reinforced the message in travel updates: “All scheduled Emirates flights to and from Dubai remain suspended until 2359hrs UAE time on 4 March, due to airspace closures across the region.” The airline noted it is operating a limited number of passenger repatriation and freighter flights on March 3 and 4, with priority given to earlier bookings. Flydubai and other carriers have aligned with similar restrictions.

The disruptions trace back to precautionary airspace measures implemented by the UAE General Civil Aviation Authority following retaliatory strikes and heightened tensions. Neighboring countries including Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and others imposed comparable closures, creating a broad no-fly corridor that severed typical flight paths. Flight-tracking platforms like Flightradar24 and FlightAware report over 12,300 cancellations across seven major Gulf airports from February 28 through March 3, with DXB among the most impacted. More than 80% of scheduled flights to and from Dubai have been axed in recent days, contributing to a regional total exceeding thousands of affected services and stranding tens of thousands of passengers globally.

Despite the constraints, some activity has returned. Limited departures and arrivals — often focused on repatriation efforts for stranded nationals — have operated since March 2 evening. Examples include select long-haul repatriation flights coordinated under strict safety protocols. However, routine commercial traffic remains heavily curtailed, with most international carriers rerouting or canceling connections through the Gulf.

The situation has ripple effects worldwide. Airlines such as Air France, KLM, Air Canada and United have suspended or adjusted services to Dubai and other regional points through early March or beyond. Governments and travel advisories urge caution, with many recommending against non-essential travel to the UAE until stability returns.

Dubai Airports continues close coordination with authorities to prioritize safety while facilitating essential movements. A prior update noted minor damage to a concourse at DXB from an earlier incident, quickly contained without broader operational impact. No major new incidents have been reported since the limited resumption.

Travelers planning to use Dubai International Airport should:

– Verify flight status directly via airline channels, the Emirates website or dubaiairports.ae flight information pages.
– Avoid traveling to the airport without explicit airline confirmation to prevent overcrowding and security bottlenecks.
– Monitor real-time tools like FlightAware or Flightradar24 for live updates on arrivals, departures and delays.
– Prepare for rebookings, refunds or alternative routing, as flexible waiver policies remain in effect from many carriers.
– Check government travel warnings, as evolving airspace rules could further restrict even limited operations.

Industry analysts describe the current phase as a “phased recovery” rather than full normalization, with potential for incremental increases in permitted flights if de-escalation progresses. Dubai’s position as a global transit powerhouse — handling over 90 million passengers annually pre-crisis — makes its constrained status particularly disruptive to worldwide connectivity.

As the region navigates these challenges, DXB’s partial functionality underscores efforts to maintain a lifeline for essential travel amid widespread closures elsewhere. Full resumption hinges on broader security developments, with authorities pledging ongoing updates.

For now, Dubai International Airport stands technically open but far from business as usual, processing only approved movements in a tightly controlled environment.

ET Intelligence Group: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) resumed selling in India’s secondary equity market on March 2, resulting in the largest daily outflow of $751.4 million (₹6,832 crore) in four months. The reversal comes after FPIs pumped $2.2 billion (₹19,782 crore) into secondary equities in February, the strongest monthly inflow in 17 months. Rising geopolitical tensions have triggered a risk-off sentiment, which is expected to persist until greater clarity emerges on the current conflict in the Middle East.

Earlier, on September 1 and November 3 last year, FPIs had sold equities worth $1 billion and $857.2 million respectively in the secondary market. After being net sellers in each of the three months to January 2026, FPIs made a beeline to Indian equities in February amid hopes of thawing international trade relations. The outflow seen on the first trading day of March, therefore, triggers concerns over sustainability of foreign fund flow in the near term as a widespread geopolitical conflict is likely to affect global energy prices, and in turn, the Indian economy, which is a net energy importer.

In February, total net inflow of FPIs was $2.5 billion (₹22,615 crore) including primary and secondary markets. In six out of the 11 months of FY26, FPIs were net sellers, reflecting their subdued stance on Indian equities amid relatively higher valuations compared with some of the emerging markets. However, their selling during this period was more benign compared with the year-ago period.
For 11 months to February, FPIs sold nearly $7 billion of equities, including primary and secondary markets. It was half of $14.2 billion sold in the comparable period of the previous fiscal year. In addition, FPIs halved their investment in the primary market to $7.6 billion from the year-ago level, indicating a more cautious stance while approaching the initial public offers (IPO) and qualified institutional purchases (QIP) segments.

While the Sensex and Nifty have corrected only about 6-7% from their all-time highs, a brutal bear market has been quietly gutting the broader listed universe for eighteen months. Among all listed companies with a market capitalisation above Rs 1,000 crore, more than 64% have fallen 30% or more from their all-time highs. Nearly 78% have fallen 20% or more. In other words, approximately 80% of India’s listed universe above Rs 1,000 crore is already deep in bear market territory and the picture turns bleaker still if smaller companies are included.

This is the finding of a new report from Monarch AIF, which describes the past year-and-a-half as a “peculiar phenomenon” in Indian markets: a phase of simultaneous time and value correction where indices stay elevated on the back of a narrow band of large-cap stocks, while hundreds of small and midcap companies have been silently decimated. That divergence, the firm says, is “very rare.”

And now, with the US-Israel strikes on Iran having pushed geopolitics back to the forefront, the Sensex fell over 1,000 points Monday, Nifty closed below 24,900. Investors now face a compounding of forces: a market already bruised by 18 months of stealth selling, now confronting a crude oil shock and the spectre of a widening Middle East conflict.

The question is whether this is the moment to run, or the moment to act.

Bear market hidden in plain sight

“This feels less like a visible crash and more like a stealth sell-off, especially in the broader small and mid-cap space,” said ArunaGiri N, Founder, CEO and Fund Manager at TrustLine Holdings. “And historically, such phases are painful, but they are also when long-term opportunity quietly begins to build.”

He offered three recent examples of what he called “disproportionate price action on the downside.” UPL shares fell 18% or more following a group restructuring announcement, despite high debt not being new information as the market is in a mood now to magnify potential risks, he said. IDFC Bank lost over Rs 14,000 crore in market capitalisation over a potential fraud loss valued at Rs 590 crore. Dishman Carbogen Amcis fell more than 10% following a mild rating agency downgrade. “One can go on,” ArunaGiri said. “Markets are in a less forgiving mood.”
Yet within the wreckage, something has changed. Monarch AIF’s analysis shows that currently around 36% of all stocks above Rs 1,000 crore market cap are trading at trailing twelve-month P/E multiples below 25x, up from just 25% in September 2024. Several small but fast-growing companies are now available at one-year forward P/E multiples of less than 20x.The firm also points to the fundamental strength of smaller companies that the sell-off has obscured. Profit before tax for the bottom-half of the listed universe by market cap grew at a CAGR of approximately 20% between 2019 and 2025, with PAT growth running at 25%. Net debt-to-equity for these companies has collapsed to just 0.13x. Revenue CAGR for the bottom half over the past three years stood at 14%, versus 11% for the top half.

Also read: Market crash wipes out Rs 8 lakh cr within minutes; 4 reasons behind today’s rout

Rate cuts add further fuel. Monarch AIF notes that after every rate-cut cycle involving more than 100 basis points, midcap and small-cap indices have staged sharp recoveries, with smaller companies tending to benefit more from operating leverage, leading to better margins and earnings growth.
The firm expects further earnings improvement in Q4, with PAT growth in Q3 having been partly suppressed by labour code provisioning. Trade deal announcements with the US and EU are also expected to support export-oriented small caps, with earnings upgrades potentially following through into FY27.

Iran war adding to the pain

Into this already complex picture, the Iran escalation has now landed. History, however, offers some perspective. Elara Securities notes that over the past 25 years of Middle East crises, the median Nifty return is flat at one week and one month, and up 17% at one year. The sell-off deepens meaningfully only when geopolitics morphs into a sustained energy shock, as in the 2011 Arab Spring, when Brent rose 20–25% in the first month and equity drawdowns widened sharply. The Russia-Ukraine episode remains the closest stress template on record.

Emkay Global’s base case is that the current hostilities end in one to two weeks, with markets recovering sharply as they did after the October 2023 and June 2025 episodes. Jefferies, while flagging India’s deep economic linkages with the Middle East — 17% of exports, 55% of crude supply, 38% of remittances — notes that recent regional conflicts have been temporary, and that “a dip could be a buying opportunity.”

Also read: Petronet LNG shares crash 8% after issuing force majeure notices amid Middle East hostilities

Axis Mutual Fund was equally measured. “Markets price duration and economic impact, not emotion,” the fund house said. “Once it becomes clear that supply disruptions are manageable, policy frameworks remain intact and growth is not structurally impaired, risk premiums compress. For India — where growth is driven by domestic consumption, capex recovery, digitisation and manufacturing realignment — geopolitical shocks are typically interruptions, not inflection points.”

The fund house pointed to a consistent pattern across fifteen years of conflict-driven sell-offs: “Investors who exited equities during earlier conflict-driven sell-offs frequently missed the recoveries that followed — sometimes within a relatively short span.”

What should investors do?

Back to the underlying bear market question. ArunaGiri’s prescription is blunt: “It is time to put capital to work, not to time the bottom.” He acknowledges the challenge — “that approach will call for a stubborn stomach to digest temporary and notional losses” — but argues that the number of opportunities offering attractive free cash flow and payout yields alongside high growth potential “have witnessed a sharp surge. Exciting times for bottom-up stock pickers.”

Monarch AIF agrees, saying the risk-reward for bottom-up stock picking has turned “favourable” in a way that typically only happens after a bear market has run its course.

The indices may not be telling you that the bear market is here. But for 80% of Indian stocks, it very much is and some of the most experienced voices on Dalal Street are quietly starting to shop.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)