MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is poised to weaken further on Monday and through the coming week, after holding within a relatively stronger 92.50–93.50 range over the past fortnight.

Persistent dollar demand, a swelling oil import bill and steady foreign portfolio outflows continue to weigh on the currency despite RBI’s efforts to curb speculative activity and limit market participation by oil companies.

The rupee is expected to open with a gap on Monday at 94.40-94.50, weaker from its previous close of 94.25/$.

“Over the past few days, we see RBI tolerating weaker levels. On Friday, it intervened at 94.30/$; before that we saw intervention at 94.15/$. And I expect this tolerance for weaker levels to increase, as sentiments are negative amid prolonged peace talks,” said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors.

He expects the rupee to open at 94.35, and trade within a range of 94 to 94.50 on Monday, with RBI likely stepping in at 94.50/$.

Traders expect crude oil prices to climb back above the $100-a-barrel mark, after briefly dipping below that level on Friday. The decline, seen around 4pm IST, was driven by market speculation that Iran’s foreign minister was expected to arrive in Islamabad with a small delegation for potential peace talks with the US.
However, with no such development materialising, market participants now expect geopolitical risk premiums to add pressure on oil prices.“Peace talks aren’t happening and there are conflicting comments between Iran and the US. This creates uncertainty, and hence, I expect the crude price — which was briefly below $100 per barrel — to again increase. This should cause the rupee to open weaker at around 94.40/$ levels,” said Ritesh Bhansali, deputy CEO, Mecklai Financial Services.

Mumbai: Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL) plans to invest around ₹42,000 crore in capital expenditure in FY27 to add nearly 5 GW of clean energy capacity, Executive Director Sagar Adani said at the company’s latest earnings call.

In FY26, the company added over 5 GW of greenfield renewable capacity, the highest annual addition globally by any company outside China, it said. This has taken AGEL’s total operational portfolio to 19.3 GW, reinforcing its leadership in India’s renewable energy sector.

The management indicated that the company retains the capability and financial flexibility to scale up to 7-8 GW annually. However, it is moderating the pace of additions to better align with transmission infrastructure and grid availability. AGEL reiterated that its long-term target of reaching 50 GW capacity by 2030 remains intact.

The company’s Khavda renewable energy project in Gujarat, which has around 9.4 GW of operational wind, solar, and hybrid capacity, continues to drive its growth.

Alongside generation, the company is stepping up investments in energy storage, including Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and pumped storage projects (PSPs) to enhance reliability and address renewable intermittency.

The Nifty appears to be entering a pause rather than a reversal, said technical analysts. While near-term momentum has weakened after the recent rebound, most see the index holding key support zones and using dips as buying opportunities. Analysts expect a trading band between 23,400 and 24,500, with a decisive breakout needed to revive directional strength, even as the underlying structure remains constructive for a gradual move higher in the coming weeks.

DHARMESH SHAH
HEAD OF TECHNICALS, ICICI SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Going ahead, we expect the index to oscillate within the broader range of 23,400– 24,500. This consolidation would make the market healthy, as it strengthens the market’s foundation for an eventual push towards the 24,800 mark (aligned with the 200-day EMA) in the coming weeks. Thereby, any decline from hereon should not be construed as negative; instead, it should be capitalised on to accumulate high-quality stocks on dips, backed by strong earnings, as strong support is placed at 23,100.

Trading Strategy
We expect the index to hold its key support zone of 23,500, being its former gap support and the 50% retracement of its recent rally (22,182–24,601). Hence, any decline towards 23,390–23,500 should be used as a buying opportunity for a target of 23,800. In the process, strong support is placed at 23,270 levels.
TOP BETS FOR THE WEEK JSW Steel: Buy at Rs 1,240–1,266 | Stop loss at Rs 1,115 | Target Rs 1,445

The stock looks attractive after a strong rebound from the lower band of its long-term rising channel. Structurally, the 52-week EMA has acted as a “floor” since July 2022, with buying demand re-emerging near this level, supporting a favourable risk-reward at current levels.

Power Grid: Buy at Rs 306–316 | Stop loss at Rs 289 | Target Rs 352

Structurally, the stock has broken out of a long-term falling trendline resistance connecting the highs of October 2024 & 2025. The current pullback has formed a bullish flag pattern above the 52-week EMA, signalling base formation near an elevated support zone and an incremental buying opportunity with risk-reward.

SUDEEP SHAH
HEAD – TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, SBI SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
The recovery rally from the recent low of 22,182 has lost momentum, shifting from a sharp rebound into a phase of correction and consolidation. Nifty slipped below 23,900 and ended the week down 1.87%, largely due to profit booking after the prior upmove. Technically, the index has broken below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, indicating weakening short-term strength. Momentum indicators also reflect softness, with RSI slipping below key levels and MACD showing a gradual loss of bullish momentum. This suggests a likely range-bound phase rather than a strong directional move. From a levels perspective, the 23,700–23,650 zone is a crucial support area, with a breakdown potentially dragging Nifty towards 23,300. On the upside, resistance is placed at 24,200–24,250, and only a sustained move above this band can revive bullish momentum.

Trading Strategies
Since the index is trading in a range with volatility, we advise traders to go long on Nifty on a breakout above 24,250, with a stop loss at 24,000 for a target of 24,700.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Cochin Shipyard: Buy at Rs 1,664 | Stop loss at Rs 1,580 | Target Rs 1,850–1,950

Cochin Shipyard is trading above its key moving averages across timeframes. Post consolidation, the stock has seen a strong breakout, with buying visible on all dips. Relative strength versus other defence names and the broader market remains favourable.

Aster DM Healthcare: Buy at Rs 705 | Stop loss at Rs 660 | Target Rs 750–770

It continues to trade in a steady uptrend, holding firmly above its key medium- and long-term moving averages. We expect it to move towards Rs 750–770.

TANMAY SHAH
RESEARCH HEAD, SIHL

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Technically, the index remains influenced by ongoing geopolitical developments, keeping volatility elevated. For the week ahead, Nifty is likely to find strong support around 23,600, which could act as a base for consolidation. As long as this level holds, the broader structure remains constructive, with a potential resumption of the uptrend towards the 200-day moving average placed near 25,125. A decisive move beyond 24,450 would further strengthen bullish momentum.

Trading Strategy
Recommend a bull call spread to position for near-term upside. Traders may consider buying the 23,900 Call and selling the 24,400 Call of the 5th May expiry. The strategy offers a favourable risk-reward with limited downside, while capturing gains if Nifty trends higher towards the upper resistance zone. It is well-suited for a moderately bullish view amid an improving technical setup.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK

Coal India: Buy at Rs 455 | Stop loss at Rs 441 | Target Rs 478–486

The stock shows relative strength in a weak market, consistently holding above its 20-week moving average, indicating strong support. Sustained closes above this level signal a bullish bias.

Graphite India: Buy at Rs 724.8 | Stop loss at Rs 690 | Target Rs 765–780

Technically, the stock has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on the higher timeframe and delivered a decisive upside breakout, indicating structural strength. The trend remains bullish post-breakout

This article was written by

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ET Intelligence Group: Early results trend for the March 2026 quarter shows that aggregate net profit grew in double digits helped by a low year-ago base and strong performance from banking and finance companies, which also offset the subdued numbers of Reliance Industries (RIL).

For a sample of 159 companies, net profit rose 13% year-on-year compared with a 2.6% growth in the year-ago quarter. The profit growth was in single digit in the previous two quarters. Revenue grew 9%, the highest in seven quarters.

Excluding RIL, which reported a fall in profit due to pressure on the oil and gas business, the sample’s net profit grew at a faster rate of 17.6% while revenue rose 8.3%. RIL’s net consolidated profit excluding non-controlling interest fell 12.6% year-on-year to ₹16,971 crore in the March quarter despite a 12.9% increase in net sales at ₹3.3 lakh crore. The company’s share in the total sample’s revenue expanded to 33.5% from 33.1% a year ago while net profit share fell to 14.2% from 17.5% by similar comparison.

Banking and finance companies reported double-digit profit growth for the quarter, thereby, partially offsetting the impact of RIL’s lower profit. Excluding the lending sector, the sample’s net profit growth reduced to 9%while revenue growth improved to 11.4%. Banks and finance companies together contributed 28% and 47% to the total sample’s revenue and net profit in the March quarter.
Operating margin for the total sample contracted to 22.3% from 22.9% year-on-year on account of lower profitability of lenders. Excluding them, the sample’s operating margin improved to 17.9% from 17.1% a year ago.

The IT companies in the sample reported a strong 12.9% year-on-year growth in net profit compared with the 1.7% growth in the year-ago quarter. Their rupee denominated profit got a boost from weaker currency against major currencies in the world. The sector contributed 22% and 27% to the total sample’s revenue and net profit respectively, similar to the previous year’s comparable quarter.
At the beginning of the current results season, analysts had anticipated a high single-digit growth in aggregate net profit to be driven by automobiles, banking and finance and metals & mining companies. More companies are expected to declare results in the coming weeks, which is expected to bring more clarity to the quarterly trend analysis.