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Markets likely to move beyond geopolitics, focus to shift to earnings: Devina Mehra

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Markets likely to move beyond geopolitics, focus to shift to earnings: Devina Mehra
In a conversation with ET Now, Devina Mehra, Founder & CMD, First Global said that while developments around a potential Iran–US deal may ease global uncertainty, they are unlikely to be the primary driver of Indian equities going forward. According to her, market direction will continue to be shaped more by earnings trends, liquidity cycles, and broader investor positioning rather than geopolitical headlines.

“Don’t depend on geopolitical deals to drive markets”

Responding to a question on whether the Iran–US deal could act as a catalyst for global and Indian markets, Mehra said:

“I do not think we should only depend on the deal. But yes, if it happens, it takes away a big overhang overall on all markets. And I do not think that is what is going to drive the Indian markets up. In March, when I had come on your channel, I had said that the market looks on all our indicators as if it is in the bottom range. I cannot tell you whether it will start moving up in two weeks or two months, but the indicators are all positive. Even now, if you see, it is a very different market from what it was in 2025.”

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She pointed out that market breadth has improved significantly compared to last year.

“In 2025, all the Indian indices were up, but the median stock was down, and 40% of stocks were down more than 10%. But midway through the year, the outperforming stocks were only about 15%. The norm is around 40%. Now we actually have a majority of stocks outperforming the indices. So it is completely flipped, which is good news overall for markets, and that is why, as I said in March also, do not be 100% in equity, but whatever is your equity allocation, remain invested. So that remains my advice.”
“Geopolitical risks are not something you should react to”
On whether investors should increase equity allocation given easing global tensions, Mehra cautioned against reacting to geopolitical developments.“The geopolitical risk per se is not something you should react to, and I am not saying this now. There is an early March video of mine which is pinned on my Twitter feed which says exactly that: do not overreact to geopolitics. This is what 125 years of data shows, including the two world wars, the two Gulf wars, the US bombing Libya, 9/11, all of that. The market shrugged it off even when conflicts continued, as has happened with Russia–Ukraine.”

She added that while crude oil movements matter for India, one should avoid building investment decisions around uncertain geopolitical outcomes.

“Of course, in India there is a direct impact because of crude, because that impacts earnings. So you have to take that into account. But I am not betting on geopolitical resolution as far as Indian or global markets are concerned.”

“The dangerous consensus is emotional behaviour”
Discussing investor behaviour, Mehra highlighted how sentiment-driven decisions often lead to poor timing.

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“If you look at the markets in the last couple of months, SIP numbers have turned negative. The number of accounts has also turned negative. Indian investors have been very jittery. If you plot long-term data, mutual fund inflows peak around market peaks and bottom out around market bottoms. Humans act out of emotions, which mislead you completely.”

She stressed the importance of staying invested during periods of panic.

“When you are panicking is when you need to remain in the market. That is the superpower: do not get out when your mind is screaming get out.”

Mehra also pointed out the shift in sentiment around India.

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“A year-and-a-half ago, every fund manager was selling the India growth story. Now, suddenly, the narrative has flipped and people are only talking about risks. Sentiment is always a contra indicator. When sentiment is extremely negative, future returns tend to be above normal. So probability-wise, we are looking at a better year ahead.”

“US is not the globe: diversification is key”
On portfolio strategy, Mehra reiterated her long-standing view that diversification across geographies and assets remains critical.

“You should always have a diversified portfolio. But the US is not the globe. People think buying a US index or a few well-known stocks is enough, but that is not sufficient diversification. It is better than being in a single market, but not a whole lot better.”

She explained how global positioning has already shifted across regions.

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“We have been underweight the US for almost a year-and-a-half. We went overweight Europe and China and added markets like Malaysia and Mexico, which are below the radar for most investors.”

Warning against concentration in a handful of global stocks, she added:

“People think buying the so-called Magnificent Seven will save them. That worked for a couple of years, but in 2025 the leadership narrowed and now several of those stocks are underperforming. The baton has already passed, but investors are still chasing yesterday’s winners.”

“No easy answers in global investing”
Mehra also cautioned against over-simplified global investment products and strategies.

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“There are no easy answers. I am sceptical about schemes being launched without expertise in global markets. Many have underperformed because they invested in yesterday’s stocks instead of tracking what is happening today and anticipating what comes next. If you go global, it must be with real expertise.”

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PGIM Jennison Energy Infrastructure Fund Q1 2026 Commentary (Mutual Fund:PRPZX)

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PGIM Jennison Energy Infrastructure Fund Q1 2026 Commentary (Mutual Fund:PRPZX)

Electric transmission tower with glowing electricity flowing, electrical power transmit from high voltage substation infrastructure to city, energy usage monitoring dashboard interface 3d rendering

Black_Kira/iStock via Getty Images

Performance Recap

Energy infrastructure equities performed very strongly in 1Q26, far outpacing the broad market, though underperforming the broad energy sector. After experiencing a reversal in 2Q25, and having a generally solid year in 2025, the energy sector has performed

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Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS) Flatrock Compression, Ltd., – M&A Call – Slideshow

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS) Flatrock Compression, Ltd., – M&A Call – Slideshow

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Housing wait list structure to change

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Housing wait list structure to change

The state government will try to reform the social housing wait list amid concerns the most desperate people are unable to access a home.

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HCL Tech shares jump 3% after buying stake in Sarvam AI for Rs 1,427 crore

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HCL Tech shares jump 3% after buying stake in Sarvam AI for Rs 1,427 crore
Shares of IT major HCL Tech gained 3% to their day’s high of Rs 1,150 on the BSE on Tuesday after the IT services company emerged as the lead investor in a fresh funding round for Sarvam AI, India’s largest pure-play artificial intelligence startup.

HCL Tech has invested Rs 1,427 crore, or approximately $150 million, in Sarvam AI, securing a 10.46% stake in the company. The investment was part of a Series B funding round of around $300 million, which values the startup at nearly $1.5 billion.

Besides HCL Tech, investors including Nvidia, Prosperity7, Activate and Glade Brook collectively contributed around $100 million in the funding round, while Bessemer invested $50 million. Sarvam AI is also backed by early investors such as PeakXV and Khosla Ventures.

As part of the partnership, HCL Tech will support Sarvam AI’s research and development efforts focused on next-generation frontier AI agentic models, coding models and cybersecurity applications. The funding will also help the startup gain access to large-scale computing infrastructure and expand deployments across key industry sectors.

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Also read: Oil Price Today (June 16): Crude oil rebounds after 5% plunge as traders await US-Iran peace deal details. Where are prices headed?According to HCL Tech, the investment will help it develop industry-specific, client-focused language models and AI solutions for its global customer base. The company expects these offerings to deliver strong price-to-performance results and strengthen its enterprise AI capabilities across industries.


The partnership will also allow HCL Tech to leverage and further develop Sarvam AI’s multilingual capabilities in India and international markets, supporting both sovereign AI initiatives and enterprise deployments. In addition, the company aims to accelerate the development and adoption of sovereign AI solutions for governments, regulated sectors and enterprises seeking localised, secure and compliant AI deployments.

HCL Tech Q4 snapshot

IT major HCL Technologies reported a 4.2% growth in its consolidated net profit for the March-ended quarter at Rs 4,488 crore versus Rs 4,307 crore in the year-ago period. The profit after tax (PAT) is attributable to the owners of the company.
The revenue from operations in Q4FY26 stood at Rs 33,981 crore, 12% higher than Rs 30,246 crore posted in the corresponding quarter of the last financial year.Separately, HCL Tech has guided for revenue growth of 1% to 4% for the financial year 2027 compared with the financial year 2026. The outlook factors in a 50-basis-point impact from client-specific issues and a 2% to 3% impact from AI-led deflation.

HCL Tech shares

Shares of the company are down 32% YTD and about 35% in the last 1 year.

Sensex, Nifty today: Catch all the LIVE stock market action here
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Minderoo, big funders unite to create refugee lending facility

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Minderoo, big funders unite to create refugee lending facility

Some of Australia’s largest philanthropic organisations, including the Forrests’ Minderoo Foundation, have banded together to launch a lending facility for refugee-led businesses.

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Ex-senator Rod Culleton challenges COVID-19 fine in Federal Court

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Ex-senator Rod Culleton challenges COVID-19 fine in Federal Court

Former senator Rod Culleton has compared himself to billionaire Clive Palmer as he fights against a fine over breaching COVID-19 quarantine restrictions.

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Council decision paves the way for one of country’s biggest employment parks

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Project approved despite claims move will ‘concrete Westhoughton over’

Bolton council has approved a masterplan to manage the development of the huge site

Bolton council has approved a masterplan to manage the development of the huge site (Image: Bolton council has approved a masterplan to manage the development of the huge site (Pic: Bolton council planning portal))

A vision to transform an area close to the M61 into one of the UK’s biggest employment destinations has been approved.

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Bolton council’s West of Wingates masterplan sets out the criteria and design expectations for the massive development on the western edge of Westhoughton, which when completed will support up to 6,000 jobs.

The allocation provides for around 440,000 sqm of industrial and warehousing floorspace.

Phase 1 planning permission for the project, next to the A6 on Chorley Road, was granted January 2024 is under construction.

Bolton council’s cabinet meeting heard that some councillors had ‘significant concerns about the road network’ around the site.

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Another campaigner claimed the move will ‘concrete Westhoughton over’ with ‘green fields dug up over the next few years and thousands of extra vehicles per day’.

The cabinet meeting heard form executive member Nadeem Ayub who described the masterplan as providing a framework for ‘a high quality exemplar employment site’.

He added: “The decision on whether the site should be developed has already been made under the Places for Everyone plan. It has been allocated for employment use.

“The principle of development , the amount of floorspace was done after a full public consultation.

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“This document is not a decision on whether to develop it’s about how to develop well.

“The document sets out a vision for a high quality exemplar employment site and puts forward eight design principle that every future application will be tested against.

“It protects landscape features and green corridors.”

Horwich & Blackrod First councillor David Grant told the meeting that it was ‘good that we are creating jobs but the highway network always seems to take a backward step’.

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He added: “Coming from a neighbouring ward I still have significant concerns about the road network, particularly the motorway roundabouts, the Beehive roundabout – all are at capacity, all are still being developed.

“There doesn’t seem to have been any offer of improvements to those junctions. One minor accident or issue and the entirety of Horwich comes to a standstill.

“By adding a significant employment zone on the outskirts of that area will only add to people coming down the A6 and increasing the issues.”

The West of Wingates site in Westhoughton

The West of Wingates site in Westhoughton (Image: The West of Wingates site in Westhoughton (Pic: Bolton Council planning portal))

Campaigner David Wilkinson was a councillor in Westhoughton for more than three decades before losing his seat last month.

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Reacting to the decision he said: “The decision means over 400 acres of green fields will dug up over the next few years and thousands of extra vehicles per day.

“It’s one of the biggest industrial estates in the country.

“Phase II was included in Place for Everyone passed by Bolton Council in March 2024 it also included the development of Hulton Estate by Peel.

“It also removed green belt protection for hundreds of acres on the Phase II site at Wingates making easier to build.

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“So the Labour, Tory and Independent councillors on Bolton council who voted for it, voted to concrete Westhoughton over.”

Bolton Council says that it worked with developers, the Harworth Group, and various public bodies as part of the consultation, as well as councillors and MPs in and around Westhoughton to produce the masterplan planning document.

An eight-week public consultation period ran from November 2025 to January 22 this year.

Planning application for the next phases of the West of Wingates development are expected to be submitted by Harworth Group in the coming months.

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GIC shares decline 6% as Rs 3,088 crore OFS opens at 9% discount

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GIC shares decline 6% as Rs 3,088 crore OFS opens at 9% discount
Shares of General Insurance Corporation of India (GIC) declined 6% to their day’s low of Rs 366 on the BSE on Tuesday as the government’s offer for sale (OFS) to divest up to 5% stake in the state-run insurer opens today at a floor price of Rs 352 apiece, implying a 9% discount to the stock’s previous closing price.

In an exchange filing released on Monday, GIC announced that the government aims to sell up to 3.51 crore shares, representing a 2% equity stake, as part of the base offer which opens for non-retail investors today (June 16). The government can also exercise the oversubscription option to additionally sell another 5.26 crore shares, representing another 3% stake in the company for the OFS that opens for retail investors and employees on Wednesday (June 17).

This collectively brings the total offer size to 8.77 crore shares, or a 5% equity stake in the general insurance company. At the floor price of Rs 352 per share, this would be worth more than Rs 3,087.74 crore.

Also Read | Nilesh Shah bats for minimum qualifying criteria for F&O trading after Maharashtra man kills family, self over Rs 1.8 cr loss

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The latest stake sale comes as the government recently ramped up its disinvestment efforts. Recently, the government offloaded some of its stake in Coal India, NHPC, NLC India and other PSU companies.


The government planned to sell 10% of its stake in the insurer ‌in tranches to meet the market regulator’s minimum public shareholding norm, Reuters reported in 2024. ⁠Of this, the government already sold a 3.4% shareholding in September 2024.

GIC shareholding pattern

The President of India owned more than 82% stake in GIC as of March 31, 2026, according to data on the company’s shareholding pattern on NSE. Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) meanwhile held around 10% stake, while 22 mutual funds held around 1.5% stake.
Around 2.07 lakh retail investors collectively owned a 1.4% stake in the company.

GIC share price

GIC shares have fallen around 1% in one week but are up nearly 2% in 2026 so far. The shares of the company have rallied 103% in three years and 92% in five years.The company has a market capitalisation of more than Rs 67,588 crore.

Also Read |
M-Cap of Vedanta’s split cos jumps 67% to Rs 3.5 lakh crore

(With inputs from agencies)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Form 13D/A BeOne Medicines Ltd. For: 15 June

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Form 13D/A BeOne Medicines Ltd. For: 15 June

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Politics And The Markets 06/16/26

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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The comments below are not regulated with the same rigor as the rest of the site, and this is an ‘enter at your own risk’ area as discussion can get very heated. If you can’t stand the heat… you know what they say…

More on Today’s Markets:

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