A Nobel Prize-winning economist has warned that persistent predictions of artificial intelligence destroying the job market could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Robert Shiller, who shared the 2013 Nobel Prize in economics for his work on asset prices, wrote a guest essay on Monday in The New York Times that argued the panic over AI is not a new sociological phenomenon.

In fact, he wrote, humans have been worried that new technology could replace them since the days of Aristotle, who envisioned a self-powered loom and a lyre that could play music without someone plucking the strings.

And in the 19th century, a group of English textile workers — who later became known as Luddites — intentionally destroyed machines they believed would put them out of a job.

ROBERT SHILLER: PEOPLE AREN’T AS IMPRESSED BY HOMES ANYMORE

Professor Robert J. Shiller wins Nobel Prize in economic sciences during an awards ceremony on Dec. 10, 2013, in Stockholm, Sweden. (Pascal Le Segretain / Getty Images)

Shiller fears that similar anxieties inherent within us are rearing their head once again.

He cited a Quinnipiac poll from March, which found that 70% of people believe AI will reduce the number of jobs. Additionally, only 16% of Americans believe AI will have a positive impact on society over the next two decades, according to a Pew Research survey conducted in June.

“Like many others, I believe AI could lower employment. But unlike most, I don’t necessarily blame the technology itself. Instead, I worry about the potency of the fear it is generating,” Shiller wrote.

“Our brains are wired to respond to stories. Narratives floating in a population can affect individuals’ economic decisions,” he continued. “When millions of people make millions and millions of decisions based upon negative expectations, there is a risk that fear can actually help birth the reality.”

THE AI REVOLUTION THREATENS OFFICE JOBS, BUT REVIVES DEMAND FOR SKILLED TRADES

Robert Shiller attends the 2019 Forbes 30 Under 30 Summit at Detroit Masonic Temple on Oct. 29, 2019, in Detroit, Michigan. (Taylor Hill / Getty Images)

Much of the negative media coverage around AI centers on speculation over how much it will impact jobs and the economy.

In late May, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei told Axios that in the next one to five years, AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to as much as 20%. He later expressed uncertainty over the exact timeline.

The current unemployment rate is 4.3%, up from 4% at the beginning of President Donald Trump’s term in January 2025.

AI IS TOP REASON FOR US JOB CUTS FOR THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH

“While the job market has slowed for a host of reasons, there are reports that fear of an AI apocalypse is worsening the freeze and contributing to record lows in consumer sentiment,” Shiller argued.

A CloudHQ data center in Ashburn, Virginia, on May 31, 2026. (Lexi Critchett/Bloomberg / Getty Images)

Shiller implied that tech leaders like Amodei, who promote doom-and-gloom scenarios their own companies could help realize, are being somewhat short-sighted and should be reined in to prevent an economic recession.

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“Perhaps the best we can do is to appeal directly to the leaders of Silicon Valley who have been promoting these negative narratives with such vigor,” Shiller wrote. 

He continued: “Surely the resulting media attention highlighting how dangerously powerful your AI model is may help you sell more wares, but it may be far harder to do so in a period of recession. Try not to forget the critical lessons taught by our past.”

Indonesia’s expanding digital economy offers opportunities for investors amid regional disparities and regulatory complexities requiring real-time, localized insights for successful investment.

Indonesia’s Growing Economy and Investment Opportunities

Indonesia’s rapidly evolving economy offers significant opportunities for foreign investors, with the digital sector projected to surpass US$124 billion. Its large population of nearly 285 million people, including over 212 million internet users, drives digital growth. However, regional disparities, varied regulatory interpretations, and macroeconomic volatility add complexity to investment decisions, requiring careful navigation of this dynamic market.

Modernization of Regulatory Frameworks

Despite economic fluctuations, Indonesia remains attractive to both regional and global investors. Central to its regulatory system is the Online Single Submission — Risk-Based Approach (OSS-RBA) launched in 2021 to streamline licensing. The system simplifies requirements based on risk levels and consolidates approvals into a single platform. Recent updates aim for better integration with sectoral agencies and stricter enforcement of service standards, improving overall regulatory efficiency.

The Need for Localized Regulatory Insights

Implementation of regulations varies across Indonesia’s provinces, with licensing durations and requirements differing in practice. Investors need real-time, ground-level intelligence to navigate these variations effectively. Local insights help anticipate delays, administrative hurdles, and infrastructural challenges, allowing decision-making based on actual operational conditions rather than relying solely on national data, ultimately enhancing investment success.

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This article was written by

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.