India has moved to curb speculative bets against the rupee, taking one of its most forceful steps in over a decade as the cost of defending the currency rises.

Late Friday, the Reserve Bank of India announced new rules capping the open positions banks can hold in the onshore currency market at $100 million at the end of each trading day. The change, effective April 10, forces lenders to shrink their books, limiting their ability to run large one-sided bets against the rupee.

The urgency reflects deep concern about the rupee, which has slid to successive record lows following the Iran war. That is pushing the RBI to shift away from relying mainly on spot and forward market interventions — tools that have already contributed to a more than $30 billion drawdown in foreign-exchange reserves in the first three weeks of March, according to people familiar with the matter, to more direct measures targeting financial institutions.

“The move signals clear discomfort with rupee weakness and reflects a shift from direct intervention to controlling market positioning, offering near-term stability but limited influence on longer-term fundamentals,” said Kunal Sodhani, head of treasury at Shinhan Bank in Mumbai.

Lenders are seeking to delay the deadline to comply, warning that such a rapid unwind may trigger large losses, and urging that the rule apply only to new bets, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News.

Pressure on the rupee has mounted since the Iran war broke out a month ago. The currency has fallen more than 4% over that period to 94.82 as of Friday, and is Asia’s worst performer this year. Uncertainty over the duration of the conflict has prompted global funds to pull more than $11 billion from Indian equities, while index-eligible bonds have seen record outflows of $1.6 billion in March.
Part of the challenge for policymakers is where that pressure is coming from. While the rupee trades in Mumbai, price signals are increasingly determined overseas in hubs like Singapore, London and New York, through derivatives that let investors take positions without access to domestic markets.That makes traditional intervention less effective. Large positions can build outside India’s regulatory reach and feed back to domestic markets via arbitrage, forcing the RBI to respond by selling dollars, draining reserves while doing little to curb the underlying build-up.

By capping how much risk banks can carry, authorities are trying to make it harder for those positions to accumulate in the first place — echoing steps taken in 2011, when the RBI tightened banks’ net open position limits.

“This is a period of extreme stress for the rupee because of an unprecedented energy shock,” said R. Gurumurthy, a former RBI regional director who previously oversaw dollar-rupee interventions. “If you look at past instances where the rupee has faced such rapid depreciation in such a short time, the RBI has always stepped in with exceptional steps.”

The growth in offshore trading has long unsettled the RBI. When London overtook Mumbai as the top center for rupee trading in 2019, officials warned that offshore rupee trading was being driven by “speculators and arbitrageurs.”

Most of this activity is in non-deliverable forwards — contracts commonly used in emerging markets, especially for currencies that are not freely traded — allowing investors to hedge or bet on future values without physically exchanging the rupee.

The market’s rapid expansion has coincided with a persistent slide in the rupee, even as India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies, expanding at more than 7% annually in recent years. Capital markets have also grown, drawing about $16 billion from foreign investors into Indian bonds since their inclusion in JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s flagship index in June 2024.

Yet the rupee has weakened more than 25% since 2019, underscoring the disconnect between strong domestic fundamentals and currency performance.

The offshore market “exhibits exaggerated movements,” said G. Mahalingam, a former RBI executive director who was part of a 2019 task force set up to examine overseas rupee trading. “It takes the lead and the domestic market follows.”

Root Problems

Intervention alone has struggled to close that gap. The RBI was a net seller of $51.7 billion of dollars last year, the most on record, and has continued to step in during bouts of volatility, including at the onset of the Iran conflict.

The impact has been limited, highlighting the constraints of direct intervention when it runs up against broader macro forces like a strong dollar and shifting global risk sentiment. Other emerging-market currencies like the Philippine peso and South Korean won have also tumbled after the Middle East conflict broke out.

“Trying to stem currency depreciation by putting the squeeze on offshore markets rarely has the intended effect of staving off speculative pressures,” said Eswar Shanker Prasad, senior professor of trade policy at Cornell University. “The root problems underlying a currency’s falling value need to be addressed.”

With intervention proving costly, the central bank has widened its approach. Besides the limits on open positions, it has also proposed stricter reporting rules requiring overseas affiliates of lenders to disclose rupee-linked trades to a clearing house supervised by the RBI, in a bid to better understand who is driving offshore activity and why.

The plan has met resistance. Global banks said it could breach client confidentiality, conflict with data and reporting rules in other jurisdictions and require major changes to their systems, data formats and legal agreements.

“Some banks may need time to set up their reporting mechanisms, which could result in a temporary, limited decline in liquidity,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management.

SYDNEY: Stock markets slumped in Asia on Monday as investors dug in for a protracted Gulf conflict that already has oil prices heading for a record monthly rise, bringing a spike in inflation and the risk of recession to much of the globe.

The Financial Times on Sunday quoted President Donald Trump saying the U.S. could seize Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, from where Iran exports much of its oil, but also that a ceasefire could come quickly.

Pakistan said it was preparing to host “meaningful talks” to end the conflict over ‌Iran in coming days ⁠even though ⁠Tehran earlier accused Washington of preparing a land assault as the U.S. military sends more troops to the region.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis also launched their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict.

“Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, capacity to disrupt global energy and food markets, and sustained missile and drone capabilities give it little incentive to concede, pressuring the U.S. to escalate,” said Madison Cartwright, senior geo-economics analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“We expect the war to run at least into June, with the risk tilted to a longer conflict.”
The clampdown on the Strait has sent prices for oil, gas, fertiliser, plastic and aluminium surging, along with fuel for planes and shipping. Prices for food, pharmaceuticals and petrochemical products are all set to rise. That is bad news for Asia, as much of the region is highly dependent on energy from the ⁠Middle East. ‌Japan’s Nikkei shed another 4.7%, bringing losses for March to almost 14%.

South Korea’s market fell 4.2%, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.2%.

S&P 500 futures lost 0.7%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.9%. For Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both slid 1.5%, while FTSE futures fell ⁠1.0%.

Brent crude rose 3.0% to $115.98 a barrel, bringing its gains for the month to 60% and topping the jump that followed Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. U.S. crude climbed 3.0% to $102.52, making a monthly rise of 53%.

“The longer the Strait remains closed, the sharper the drawdown in buffer supplies that could spark dramatic increases in the price of crude oil, natural gas and other commodities,” warned Bruce Kasman, global head of economics at JPMorgan.

“A scenario in which the Strait remains closed for an additional month would be consistent with oil prices rising towards $150/bbl and constraints on industrial consumers of energy supply.”

FED IN FOCUS AS PAYROLLS LOOM
The inflationary threat has led investors to revise up the outlook for interest rates almost everywhere. Markets now imply 12 basis points of tightening by the Federal Reserve this year, compared with 50 basis points of cuts a month ago.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have a ‌chance to air his own views at an event later on Monday, and the influential head of the New York Fed, John Williams, is also talking.

Data on U.S. retail sales, manufacturing and payrolls this week will provide an update on how the economy is travelling. Jobs are seen rising 55,000 in March, after February’s shock 92,000 drop, keeping unemployment ⁠at 4.4%.

In the European Union, figures on Tuesday are forecast to show annual inflation leaped to 2.7% in March from 1.9% the month before, though core prices should be steadier.

The energy shock, combined with pressure on fiscal budgets from higher borrowing costs and the need for more defence spending, has slugged sovereign bond markets.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields are up roughly 47 basis points for the month so far at 4.428%, while two-year yields have climbed 54 basis points.

Heightened volatility in markets has tended to benefit the U.S. dollar as the world’s most liquid currency. The United States is also a net energy exporter, giving it a relative advantage over Europe and much of Asia.

The dollar was holding at 160.12 yen, having last week crossed the 160 barrier for the first time since July 2024 when Japan last intervened to prop up the currency.

The euro was stuck at $1.1500, not far from the March trough of $1.1409.

In commodity markets, gold was down 1.0% at $4,445 an ounce , having drawn scant support as a safe haven or as a hedge against inflation risks.

A nationwide recall has been issued for two chocolate products after they were found to contain undeclared prescription drug ingredients, federal health officials warn.

California-based Gear Isle is voluntarily recalling certain units of its “Gold Lion Aphrodisiac Chocolate” and “ilum Sex Chocolate” after testing revealed the presence of sildenafil and tadalafil — active ingredients commonly used in erectile dysfunction medications, according to a Thursday announcement from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

The products were sold online across the U.S. and marketed as dietary supplements.

CHOCOLATE CANDY SOLD AT LIDL RECALLED OVER UNDECLARED HAZELNUT ALLERGEN

The FDA warned that the undeclared ingredients could pose serious health risks, particularly for people taking nitrate medications for heart conditions. 

The combination can cause a sudden and potentially “life-threatening” drop in blood pressure, according to the FDA.

“Among the adult male population who are most likely to use these products, adult males who use nitrates for cardiac conditions are most at risk from these products,” the announcement noted.

ALDI RECALLS POPULAR SNACK FOOD OVER POSSIBLE RODENT HAIR CONTAMINATION

The recall covers:

• Gold Lion Aphrodisiac Chocolate Male Enhancement Sachet (UPC: 795847916279, exp. June 2027)
• ilum Sex Chocolate Male Sexual Enhancement Booster (UPC: 1002448578911, exp. Dec. 25, 2027)

Gear Isle said it has not received any reports of adverse events tied to the products.

Consumers are urged to stop using the products immediately and return them for a refund. 

HERBAL SUPPLEMENT FOUND TO CONTAIN HIDDEN VIAGRA INGREDIENT, FDA URGES CONSUMERS TO STOP USE

Anyone experiencing symptoms should contact a healthcare provider, according to the FDA.

The recall follows a similar action earlier this month, when New Mexico-based Primal Supplements Group LLC voluntarily recalled certain units of its Primal Herbs “Volume” sexual enhancement product after it was also found to contain sildenafil, according to the FDA.

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Gear Isle did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment.