AHMEDABAD: Its too late and too little done in the US to come out of the financial turmoil, a crisis of 240 trillion $ cannot be stemmed with bailout packages of 1 to 10 trillion $, Arun Kumar, professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University said here on Thursday.

“When the US president elect Barrack Obama assumes office in January, the crisis will still be bigger,” Kumar said while delivering lecture on Current Financial Turmoil and Lesson for Future at Ahmedabad Management Association today.

“150 billion $ tax cut package for the housing sector was too little and too late to stem the collapse of a much higher magnitude,” Kumar said adding “Every aspect of financial sector got sucked into the financial turmoil.”

“In last two decades the financial markets in US got deregulated, under the guidance of Alan Greenspan as he worked on assumption that markets are self stabilising, but in a recent testitmony Greenspan admitted he was wrong for 16 years,” Kumar said while quoting a US leading daily.

This deregulation led to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stern and other troubled entitites, he added.

“Government has intervened, crisis has slowed down, but there is crisis of confidence now amongst the banks. The financial and money markets work on certain degree of trust and confidence and this should not be shattered at any cost,” he added.”Collapse in US was so sharp against the gradual rise because the banks were interlocked in deals. Due to deregulartion there were instruments promising much higher returns and even a marginal fall in assest pricing triggered it all,” Arun Kumar said.

US economy was thriving on borrowed funds, so post crisis countries such as Japan, China, Iceland, Ukraine and others are in deep trouble. China is finding ways to delink from dollar, after corporate profits began falling showing early signs of heading into recession, Arun Kumar said.

Now protectionism of economy has creeped in due to lack of confidence, that too is dangeorus, he cautioned. So when the US President-elect Barrack Obama joins office he would prioritise job creation in sectors like BPO and call centres, Kumar said adding, in the past 1.5 billion job loss has been reported in US.

So at this historic juncture a out-of-box re-architecturing is required for the $ 600 trillion financial sector, he added.

In the backdrop of such a scenario the G-20 initiative is important and extensive coordination between the government’s including Indian should be evolved to come over it, Kumar added.

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When the Finance Minister set this year’s disinvestment and asset monetisation target of Rs 80,000 crore in February, market conditions were markedly different. Since then, markets have corrected significantly, making it more challenging to meet both the fiscal deficit target and the disinvestment plan in the current economic environment.

In this context, one segment that remains relatively insulated from market volatility is Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). The government can leverage this space to achieve most of its targets. These instruments have proven to be effective tools for the Government and their entities to monetise income-generating assets through the capital markets. Importantly, the REIT and InvIT markets remain active, with transactions continuing despite broader market fluctuations.

There are several infrastructure assets that generate steady income through tariffs or tolls. These can be bundled into InvITs/REITs and offered to investors. The government has already launched InvITs that are large, well-structured, and actively traded.

At the same time, State Governments hold significant portfolios of similar revenue-generating assets that remain largely untapped for monetisation. If properly structured, InvITs can enable State Governments not only to raise resources but also to support their fiscal deficit targets. The key question is how best to operationalise this opportunity. An optimal approach would be for various State departments and agencies to transfer their eligible assets into centrally sponsored or established InvIT platforms such as NHIT. This would create larger, more diversified asset pools, improve liquidity, attract a broader base of institutional investors, and ultimately lead to better pricing and faster execution.

Rather than each state or agency creating its own InvIT (which would likely result in smaller, fragmented, and potentially suboptimal vehicles), aligning with a centralised InvIT platform offers clear advantages of scale, standardisation, and market credibility. Individual state-level InvITs may struggle with limited size, lower liquidity, and reduced investor interest, whereas a unified platform can aggregate assets across jurisdictions to create a more compelling investment proposition.

Existing InvITs are already performing well and have significant headroom for further scale. NHIT (NHAI’s flagship monetisation vehicle), for instance, has a market capitalisation of approximately Rs 34,126 crore and an enterprise value of about Rs 58,500 crore. It has monetised around Rs 50,000 crore of assets over the past five years and has demonstrated the capacity to absorb additional assets. Its portfolio comprises 28 toll road assets spanning roughly 13,000 lane kilometres. It has successfully attracted several marquee global institutional investors such as OTPP, CPPIB, KKR, and GIC, demonstrating strong investor appetite for stabilised toll road assets and validating the scalability of the InvIT model as a repeat monetisation platform.
With NHAI having significantly deleveraged its balance sheet through successive monetisation rounds, and with new highway awards progressing at a measured pace, the pipeline of readily monetisable national highway assets is becoming constrained. In this context, state-owned expressways are emerging as the next frontier for monetisation.Currently, state-operated highways and expressways represent an estimated Rs 1.4 lakh crore of assets awaiting monetisation. Since 2018, the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) has monetised assets worth approximately Rs 1.22 lakh crore through InvITs (NHIT and Raajmarg) and the Toll-Operate-Transfer (ToT) framework.

State-operated highways present a substantial capital recycling opportunity, supported by a growing pool of mature, revenue-generating assets. Leading state authorities collectively manage over 22,500 km of monetisable stretches, with an estimated aggregate valuation exceeding Rs 3 lakh crore. Maharashtra leads this segment, accounting for over 50% of the total estimated asset value among the top six states.

A select pool of high-quality assets with strong revenue potential (supported by predictable, inflation-linked toll income and operational maturity) includes key projects across Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. These include the Samruddhi Mahamarg (Mumbai–Nagpur), Bandra–Worli Sea Link, Atal Setu, Coastal Road, Agra–Lucknow Expressway, Purvanchal Expressway, and Gorakhpur Link Expressway. Together, these seven assets represent approximately 1,492 km of operational, toll-generating infrastructure and generate over Rs 2,250 crore in annual revenue. This is precisely the type of stable, mature portfolio that InvIT investors have actively sought in the NHAI pipeline, with the potential to generate approximately Rs 1.4 lakh crore in upfront value.

Entities such as MSRDC, MMRDC, and UPEIDA carry significant debt arising from the construction of these assets (for instance, MSRDC alone has incurred around Rs 55,000 crore for the Samruddhi Mahamarg). Unlocking even a portion of this value through structured monetisation would free up substantial capital for future infrastructure development, reduce debt burdens on state agencies and public finances, transfer operations and maintenance risks to specialised long-term operators, and preserve public ownership of the underlying infrastructure through concession-based structures rather than outright sales.

A coordinated, platform-led approach to monetisation can therefore play a pivotal role in bridging fiscal gaps while accelerating infrastructure development. By aligning state assets with established InvITs rather than pursuing fragmented, standalone vehicles, governments can unlock superior value through scale, standardisation, and stronger investor confidence. This not only ensures more efficient capital recycling but also builds a sustainable pipeline for future monetisation. At a time when traditional disinvestment avenues face headwinds, leveraging InvITs as a unified, scalable mechanism offers a pragmatic and market-aligned path to meeting fiscal objectives while continuing to invest in India’s infrastructure growth story.

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — As artificial intelligence spending continues to reshape the semiconductor industry in 2026, investors face a high-stakes choice among Nvidia, Intel and AMD. The three companies represent very different bets on the AI chip market, with Nvidia maintaining overwhelming dominance, AMD mounting a credible challenge and Intel fighting for relevance through a costly turnaround.

Nvidia remains the undisputed leader in AI accelerators. Its Blackwell and Hopper GPUs power the vast majority of training and inference workloads at hyperscale data centers. Q1 2026 results showed Data Center revenue exceeding $30 billion, with gross margins above 75%. Analysts project the company could sustain 40-50% revenue growth through 2027 as enterprises and governments accelerate AI adoption. The CUDA software ecosystem creates a formidable moat, making it difficult for competitors to displace Nvidia in high-performance computing.

Yet the stock trades at premium valuations, with forward price-to-earnings multiples well above historical averages. Bears warn that any slowdown in Big Tech capital expenditure or successful custom silicon efforts by hyperscalers could pressure margins. Geopolitical risks, including export restrictions to China, add another layer of uncertainty. Still, the overwhelming consensus among more than 50 analysts is Strong Buy, with average price targets implying 25-35% upside from current levels.

AMD offers a more affordable way to play the AI boom. Its Instinct MI300 and upcoming MI350 accelerators are gaining traction in inference and certain training workloads. Data Center revenue has grown rapidly, though from a much smaller base than Nvidia. AMD’s EPYC CPUs continue to take share from Intel in servers, and the Ryzen AI processors are strengthening its position in client PCs. Analysts like those at Rosenblatt and JPMorgan see AMD as a compelling growth story, citing its ability to deliver competitive performance at lower cost.

Valuation is more reasonable than Nvidia’s, but AMD still faces execution risks. It must scale manufacturing, prove software compatibility and win meaningful share against Nvidia’s entrenched position. The consensus rating is Moderate Buy, with price targets suggesting 20-30% potential upside. For investors seeking exposure to AI without Nvidia’s sky-high multiple, AMD presents an attractive alternative.

Intel tells a different story. Once the world’s largest chipmaker, it has struggled with manufacturing delays and lost ground in both client and server markets. Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, the company is executing a high-stakes turnaround, focusing on the 18A process node and foundry ambitions. Q1 2026 results showed Data Center and AI revenue growing strongly, with several hyperscaler design wins for custom chips and Xeon processors.

Intel’s foundry business, supported by CHIPS Act funding, aims to become a viable alternative to TSMC. If successful, it could generate stable revenue and reduce reliance on internal sales. However, the company continues to post GAAP losses, and capital expenditure remains elevated. Analysts are divided: some see a compelling multi-year recovery story, while others remain skeptical about Intel’s ability to close the technology gap.

The stock has rallied sharply on recent earnings beats, but valuations reflect optimism rather than proven execution. Consensus leans Hold, with targets implying modest upside or downside depending on foundry progress. For risk-tolerant investors betting on a U.S.-based manufacturing renaissance, Intel offers the highest potential reward — and risk.

Comparing the three reveals clear differences in risk-reward profiles. Nvidia offers the safest way to capture AI growth but at a premium price. AMD provides balanced exposure with better valuation and diversification into CPUs. Intel represents a high-conviction turnaround play with significant optionality if its foundry and process technology ambitions succeed.

Market dynamics favor all three to varying degrees. Global AI infrastructure spending is projected to exceed $200 billion annually by 2027, creating ample opportunity. However, competition is intensifying as hyperscalers develop custom chips and new entrants emerge. Supply chain constraints, energy costs and regulatory hurdles could affect growth trajectories.

Investors must weigh several factors. Nvidia’s near-term dominance is hard to dispute, but its valuation leaves little margin for error. AMD’s momentum is real, yet it must prove it can scale against a larger rival. Intel’s story is the most speculative, hinging on execution in a notoriously difficult business.

Analysts emphasize diversification. Many portfolios hold all three companies in varying proportions to capture different segments of the AI value chain. Long-term believers in the AI secular trend generally favor Nvidia for its leadership position. Those seeking value and growth often tilt toward AMD. Contrarian investors willing to endure volatility may see Intel as the highest-upside option.

Ultimately, there is no universal “best” choice. The decision depends on individual risk tolerance, investment horizon and conviction in each company’s strategy. Nvidia remains the default AI play for most. AMD offers a compelling alternative for those seeking lower relative valuation. Intel appeals to those betting on a successful U.S. semiconductor resurgence.

As 2026 unfolds, quarterly results, product launches and AI spending trends will provide fresh data points. For now, the AI chip race remains wide open, with each company positioned to benefit from the same powerful tailwind — even if their paths to success differ dramatically.

After months of caution across the broader market, Siddharth Vora has turned increasingly constructive, arguing that the recent correction has reset valuations to more attractive levels and opened up opportunities across select smallcap pockets. Speaking to ET Now, Vora said sentiment had meaningfully shifted over the past two months as panic subsided and the market began stabilising.

“So, actually, we have turned quite constructive over the last, I would say, two months broadly since the whole panic and the sharp selloff and correction, valuations have turned attractive,” he said. For nearly 15 months, his portfolio remained largely tilted towards largecaps and midcaps, with less than 10% exposure to smallcaps. That stance is now changing. “We are finally turning constructive on smaller caps as well and as we speak we have been increasing some exposure to the smallcaps in our portfolio.”

Vora added that “the peak pessimism seems to be behind us now,” prompting a gradual reweighting towards smaller companies while maintaining a disciplined sectoral approach.

Metals, Power, Materials Continue to Dominate

The core thesis driving his portfolio remains intact: crude long, India short. “Metals continue to be the largest overweight,” Vora said, noting that 25–27% of the portfolio is allocated to the sector, with another 5–7% to cement. Combined materials exposure is roughly 30%, significantly above benchmark weights.
Power, energy and utilities make up another 15% through names such as Coal India, NTPC and Torrent Power. Pharma also accounts for 10–12% of the portfolio.

Within metals, Vora owns a broad basket: “Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Hindalco, Nalco, Sail, Hindustan Copper… Vedanta.” Both ferrous and non-ferrous themes, he said, enjoy tailwinds from pricing, supply constraints, currency trends and China dynamics.

IT Still a Clear Avoid

On IT, Vora said his models show little reason to turn positive. “Valuations are not tremendously cheap given the growth. The guidance has been also very weak. There is no momentum in the sector.” IT, he added, “does not have enough legs for a sustained move.”

Turning Contrarian on OMCs

Interestingly, he has recently exited ONGC after the crude-linked rally played out, calling it a capped upside story given regulation and taxation risks. The contrarian opportunity, he believes, now lies with oil marketing companies.

“It is a good time to start looking at some contrarian plays around crude rather than play the Oil India, ONGC theme,” Vora said, citing decades of crude-market data that signal strong equity performance after crude price peaks.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

SYDNEY — Airlines around the world are caught in a classic squeeze: soaring fuel prices driven by Middle East tensions are pushing costs higher, yet major carriers like Qantas and Virgin Australia are simultaneously running aggressive domestic fare sales as demand softens in key markets.

The apparent contradiction has left many travelers confused when trying to book flights in April 2026. Industry executives and analysts say the dual strategy reflects the complex economics of modern aviation, where pricing is driven by route-specific demand, competition, hedging practices and the need to fill seats on less popular flights.

Qantas and Virgin Australia both warned this week that higher jet fuel prices and operational disruptions linked to the ongoing Iran-related conflict are forcing capacity reductions on some international routes. Fuel typically accounts for 25-35% of an airline’s operating costs, and sustained prices above $100 per barrel for Brent crude have created significant pressure.

Yet both airlines launched major domestic sales this month, with discounted fares across popular routes in Australia. Industry observers say this is not inconsistency but sophisticated revenue management at work.

“Airlines use dynamic pricing,” said aviation analyst Gerry Toft of the University of Sydney. “They charge premium prices on high-demand routes or peak times while offering discounts on off-peak or lower-demand flights to maximize load factors. Rising fuel costs don’t change the fundamental need to fill aircraft.”

Data from flight booking platforms shows international long-haul fares, particularly to Europe and parts of Asia affected by airspace restrictions, have climbed 12-18% year-over-year. Domestic leisure routes in Australia, however, have seen promotional pricing as carriers compete for discretionary travel spending amid economic caution from households.

The Middle East conflict has complicated global supply chains for jet fuel. Reduced shipments through key chokepoints have driven up refining and transportation costs. Airlines with poor fuel hedging positions are feeling the pain most acutely, forcing them to either absorb higher costs or pass them on through fare increases on less elastic routes.

At the same time, softer domestic demand in Australia — driven by high interest rates, cost-of-living pressures and increased competition from new entrants — has prompted carriers to stimulate travel with sales. Empty seats generate zero revenue, so even with higher fuel costs, it can be more profitable to sell a ticket at a discount than fly with it empty.

Qantas CEO Vanessa Hudson acknowledged the balancing act in recent comments. “We’re seeing strong demand on certain international corridors, but domestic leisure travel has been softer. Our job is to match capacity with demand while managing significant cost headwinds.”

Virgin Australia has taken a similar approach, cutting some international capacity while promoting domestic deals to boost load factors. The airline recently expanded its sales calendar with fares as low as $49 one-way on select routes, a move designed to stimulate travel during traditionally quieter periods.

Experts say this pricing strategy has become more sophisticated with the help of advanced revenue management systems. Airlines now use artificial intelligence to analyze booking patterns in real time, adjusting prices multiple times per day based on demand signals, competitor pricing and fuel cost fluctuations.

“Modern airline pricing is incredibly granular,” said Professor Rigas Doganis, a longtime aviation economist. “A single flight might have dozens of different fare buckets. Rising fuel costs might push up the price of flexible business class tickets while the airline still offers deep discounts in the lowest economy bucket to ensure the plane flies full.”

The strategy carries risks. If too many passengers book heavily discounted fares, it can erode overall yields. Carriers must carefully balance load factor gains against revenue per passenger. In the current environment, many airlines are accepting slightly lower yields on certain routes to protect cash flow and market share.

Fuel hedging also plays a crucial role. Airlines that locked in lower prices earlier are better positioned to run promotions. Those without effective hedges face more pressure to raise base fares. Qantas has historically been an active hedger, which has helped cushion some of the current volatility.

Broader industry trends show mixed signals. While international premium travel remains relatively strong, leisure domestic markets in several countries are showing price sensitivity. This has created opportunities for low-cost carriers and aggressive pricing from full-service airlines seeking to protect their market positions.

For consumers, the environment creates both challenges and opportunities. Strategic travelers can find genuine bargains on domestic routes by being flexible with dates and monitoring sales. However, those needing to book peak international travel or last-minute flights are facing noticeably higher prices.

The situation highlights the cyclical and unforgiving nature of the airline industry. Carriers must navigate volatile fuel prices, geopolitical risks, changing consumer behavior and intense competition while trying to deliver consistent returns to shareholders.

As the northern summer travel season approaches, analysts expect continued pricing volatility. Airlines will likely maintain a dual-track approach — protecting revenue on constrained or high-demand routes while using promotions to stimulate traffic elsewhere.

For now, travelers are advised to shop around, remain flexible and book early where possible. The current mix of rising costs and promotional pricing creates a complex but navigable market for those willing to put in the effort.

The paradox of higher fuel costs alongside fare sales ultimately comes down to one simple aviation truth: an empty seat is the most expensive seat of all.