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Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) Mining Forum Europe 2026 April 14, 2026 4:00 AM EDT

Company Participants

Daniel Breeze – Senior Vice President of Corporate Development – RGLD Gold AG

Conference Call Participants

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Cosmos Chiu – CIBC Capital Markets, Research Division

Presentation

Cosmos Chiu
CIBC Capital Markets, Research Division

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Next up, we have Dan Breeze, Senior VP, Corporate Development at Royal Gold. Morning, Dan. I’ve heard about higher royalties and not really complaining, but the producers are talking about higher royalties, and we have now Royal Gold, the recipient of some of these royalties, so.

Daniel Breeze
Senior Vice President of Corporate Development – RGLD Gold AG

Okay. Thanks for that context, Cosmos. Good to see you. Yes. Thanks for hosting this session again. Good morning, everybody. We certainly appreciate the invitation from the Denver Gold Group to be here, and thank you for your interest. I’m really pleased to update you on the Royal Gold story. The last year has been the most defining period in the history of the company. We’re going to go through a few of the key items that we want to cover off for you.

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Just bear with me for a moment, I will be making forward-looking statements during this presentation. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. These details are in our most recent 10-K that was filed with the SEC.

This is a high-level presentation and we’ll get into a little bit of detail as we go through it. But I want to start with a summary of why we think Royal Gold is a compelling investment. We are a mine finance and portfolio management company. We are focused on making perpetual investments in royalties and streams, primarily in gold. And in fact, we lead the sector in terms of gold exposure as a percentage

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SYDNEY — As Australian Idol 2026 reaches its nail-biting conclusion Tuesday night, 21-year-old Kesha Oayda stands on the cusp of stardom with a genuine shot at claiming the season’s crown in the two-night grand finale.

The Jindabyne skier-turned-singer, one of three remaining finalists, performed her heart out Monday alongside Kalani Artis and Harlan Goode. With public votes now locked in and the winner set to be revealed live on Channel 7 and 7plus at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday, the question on everyone’s lips is whether Oayda’s raw vocal power, emotional depth and hometown momentum can carry her across the finish line.

Oayda has been a breakout star since her Feb. 15 audition, where she delivered a show-stopping rendition of Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ “Die With A Smile.” Judges Kyle Sandilands, Marcia Hines and Amy Shark were impressed by her natural stage presence and powerhouse voice, fast-tracking her through the Top 30 and into the live shows. Her journey has been anything but smooth. She landed in the bottom two during Top 12 Movie Week after singing Madonna’s “Like a Prayer,” only to save herself with a stirring “Lay Me Down” by Sam Smith on results night. In Aussie Week’s Top 10, her take on Olivia Newton-John’s “Hopelessly Devoted To You” earned her a judges’ save after another close call.

Yet each setback seemed to fuel her. By Top 6 Heroes and Tributes Week, Oayda hit an emotional peak, performing Miley Cyrus’ “The Climb” with her father Nolen on guitar — a full-circle moment that moved the audience and judges alike. She sailed safely into the Top 3 after a strong “Dancing Queen” save performance. Her consistency, combined with undeniable star quality, has made her a fan favorite and a legitimate threat heading into the finale.

The grand finale kicked off Monday with high-stakes solo and duet performances. Oayda took the stage solo with Adele’s “When We Were Young” and joined Vanessa Amorosi for a show-stopping duet of “Shine.” Guest stars including Pete Murray, Anthony Callea, Morgan Evans and judge Amy Shark added star power to the night, but all eyes remained on the Top 3 as they fought for Australia’s votes.

Oayda’s background sets her apart in a competition full of polished vocalists. Born and raised in the Snowy Mountains town of Jindabyne, she grew up on skis, following in the footsteps of her father Nolen, a professional skier, and her mother, also an avid slope enthusiast. Music, however, was always her true calling. Her father gifted her a guitar the day she was born, and by age 8 she was competing in the local Jindy Idol. The tight-knit farming and skiing community has rallied behind her, flooding social media with support and turning her run into a regional pride story.

In an exclusive interview ahead of the finale, Oayda credited her “secret weapon” — simply enjoying every moment on stage. She discovered the approach after landing in the bottom two earlier in the season. “I just went out and enjoyed it, and I think that was a really big turning point in the competition,” she told New Idea. “As much as it is a competition, it’s doing something you love.” That mindset has kept her grounded amid the pressure, she said, allowing her to focus on connecting with the audience rather than obsessing over votes.

Her father remains her biggest inspiration. Sharing the stage with him during “The Climb” was “indescribable” and “absolutely incredible,” Oayda said. “That’s just my way of beginning to thank him for everything he’s done for me musically and just my life on a regular day-to-day basis.” The duet not only showcased her vocal range but highlighted the personal stakes driving her performance.

Oayda enters Tuesday’s results show as one of the strongest vocalists left. Her performances have consistently drawn praise for emotional authenticity and technical skill — from Hozier’s “Take Me To Church” in the Top 21 to Madonna’s “Like a Prayer,” Cyndi Lauper’s “Girls Just Wanna Have Fun” and ABBA’s “Dancing Queen.” Fans and analysts note her ability to deliver “chills” with powerhouse ballads and upbeat numbers alike. Spotify streams of her Idol tracks, including “The Climb” and “Die With A Smile,” have surged, signaling broad appeal.

The other finalists bring their own strengths. Kalani Artis, 23, a former landscaper from the NSW Central Coast, has impressed with soulful, heartfelt delivery and quiet determination. Harlan Goode, 19, the Brisbane musical theatre standout, wows with big-ballad power and stage-ready charisma inspired by artists like Sabrina Carpenter and Sam Smith. All three delivered standout moments Monday, but the outcome now rests entirely with public votes cast over the past weeks and during the live shows.

Prize incentives are massive for the winner: $100,000 cash, a recording package with Hive Sound Studios, a songwriting camp with Sony Music Publishing, marketing support and VIP access to the ARIA Awards and TV WEEK Logie Awards. For Oayda, the real prize is the platform to launch her original music. “I’m ready to go on tour, I’m ready to start getting songs out,” she said. “I’ve got these songs that I’m writing every day.”

Season 11, which premiered Feb. 2 on the Seven Network, has been a ratings success under hosts Ricki-Lee Coulter and Scott Tweedie. Judges Sandilands, Hines and Shark — joined by guests including Jessica Mauboy and Anastacia — have guided contestants through themed weeks that tested versatility, from Movie Week to Super Twist Week. Oayda’s resilience through multiple bottom placements proved her growth and made her progression to the Top 3 feel earned.

Local support in Jindabyne has been overwhelming. Community posts on social media urge votes via the official Australian Idol app, SMS and online portals. “The Final Climb! Let’s get Kesha to the grand final,” one regional outlet declared after her Top 6 advancement. Her Instagram handle @keshaneve.music has become a hub for fans sharing clips of her performances, including “Hopelessly Devoted To You” and “Take Me To Church,” which racked up tens of thousands of views.

Analysts and fan forums give Oayda solid odds. Some power rankings place her as a dark horse with strong public backing, citing her consistent “wow” factor and underdog narrative. While no official betting odds are released, online buzz suggests the race between the three is tight, with Oayda’s emotional storytelling resonating deeply. One fan site noted her “high probability” of a deep run based on viewer engagement trends.

Regardless of Tuesday’s outcome, Oayda has already won over hearts. Her story — trading skis for a microphone while honoring her roots — embodies the Idol spirit. Whether she takes the title or not, the exposure positions her for a post-show career in music, potentially including tours and original releases.

As the clock ticks toward the 7:30 p.m. announcement, tension is high across Australia. Viewers tuning in will witness history: the culmination of months of auditions, live battles and public votes. For Oayda, it’s the final step in a journey that began with a guitar gift and backyard dreams in the Snowy Mountains.

Will her secret weapon of pure enjoyment and vocal fireworks be enough? Australia decides tonight. One thing is certain: Kesha Oayda has proven she belongs among the best, and her chances remain very much alive as the votes are revealed in what promises to be an unforgettable grand finale.

NEW DELHI — Millions of anxious students and parents across India are on edge as the Central Board of Secondary Education prepares to declare the CBSE Class 10 results 2026 for the first phase of board examinations, with strong indications pointing to an announcement as early as this week.

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The Class 10 exams, conducted from February 17 to March 11, 2026, saw approximately 25 lakh students appear for papers in core subjects including Mathematics, Science, Social Science and English. This year’s exams operated under the board’s new two-phase system, with the main session (Phase 1) results now in the final stages of processing and verification. A second phase for improvement or compartment cases is scheduled for May 15 to June 1, with those results expected around June 6.

CBSE officials have not yet issued an official date and time, but multiple sources and trends suggest the results could drop anytime after April 14, potentially by mid-to-late April. This marks an earlier-than-usual timeline compared to previous years, largely to accommodate the second-phase exams and allow students sufficient time for revaluation or supplementary processes. DigiLocker has already prepared a “Coming Soon” result window, heightening expectations that the declaration is imminent.

Students will be able to access their scorecards through multiple platforms once released. The primary official websites are results.cbse.nic.in, cbse.gov.in and cbseresults.nic.in. Results will also be available on the UMANG app, via DigiLocker accounts linked to Aadhaar, and through SMS services. To check results, candidates need their roll number, school code or center number, and admit card ID. The board advises keeping admit cards handy and creating DigiLocker accounts in advance for seamless download of digital marksheets.

The two-board experiment introduced this year allows students who wish to improve their performance a second opportunity without waiting a full year. Education experts view the change as a student-friendly reform aimed at reducing stress and providing flexibility, though it has also increased logistical demands on the board for faster result processing.

In recent years, CBSE Class 10 pass percentages have consistently hovered above 93%. In 2025, the overall pass rate stood at 93.66%, with girls outperforming boys by a notable margin — 95% for girls compared to 92.63% for boys. Over 1.99 lakh students scored above 90%, while more than 45,000 achieved 95% or higher. Similar trends are anticipated this year, though final statistics will only emerge with the official declaration.

The board discontinued the practice of releasing an official merit list of toppers in 2020 to reduce unhealthy competition and mental pressure on students. Instead, high achievers receive merit certificates. Last year’s standout performances included students securing perfect 500/500 scores, with names such as Ayan Dutta making headlines. Schools and coaching institutes are expected to celebrate local toppers once individual results are out.

Evaluation of answer sheets has been underway since mid-March, involving thousands of teachers across the country working under strict confidentiality protocols. CBSE Controller of Examinations Sanyam Bhardwaj has emphasized the board’s commitment to accuracy and transparency in the assessment process.

For students who do not clear all subjects, compartment or supplementary exams offer a second chance. Revaluation and photocopy of answer books will follow in June and July, with final revaluation results expected in August. The board has also outlined clear guidelines for students seeking verification or scrutiny of marks.

The run-up to results has triggered the usual mix of excitement, nervousness and strategic planning among Class 10 students. Many are already exploring stream options for Class 11 — Science, Commerce or Humanities — based on expected performance. Career counselors advise against panic, reminding students that board marks, while important, are only one milestone in a longer educational journey.

Parents and teachers have been urged to provide emotional support during this period. Mental health organizations have issued advisories highlighting the need to manage expectations and avoid undue pressure, especially in a competitive academic environment.

The early result timeline is particularly significant this year because of the two-phase structure. Students who opt for Phase 2 will have their performance evaluated separately, ensuring that the first-phase results do not delay future academic planning for the majority.

CBSE has modernized result access in recent years with features such as digital marksheets on DigiLocker that carry the same legal validity as physical documents. Students are encouraged to download and securely store both digital and printed versions for future use in admissions and job applications.

Regional variations in performance have been a consistent feature of CBSE results. In past years, regions such as Delhi, Chandigarh and some southern zones have recorded higher pass percentages, while remote and rural areas sometimes face challenges related to infrastructure and resources. The board continues efforts to bridge these gaps through improved digital learning initiatives and teacher training.

As anticipation builds, social media platforms are buzzing with hashtags and countdowns. Coaching centers and schools are organizing result-watching events and counseling sessions. Online portals have prepared dedicated result pages with live updates, how-to guides and post-result career advice.

Education Minister has previously emphasized the government’s focus on reducing examination stress through reforms like the two-board system and competency-based questions introduced in recent years. The 2026 papers reportedly featured more application-oriented questions aligned with the National Education Policy 2020.

Once declared, the results will provide critical data on overall academic standards, subject-wise performance trends and gender gaps. Analysts will scrutinize pass percentages, compartment cases and high-score clusters to assess the effectiveness of teaching methodologies and curriculum changes.

For the millions of 15- and 16-year-olds who sat for the exams, this week could bring life-changing news — whether jubilation over stellar scores or motivation to work harder in the supplementary round. Either way, the CBSE Class 10 results 2026 represent a pivotal moment marking the end of secondary schooling and the beginning of specialized senior secondary education.

Students and parents are advised to check official CBSE channels regularly for the exact announcement and to rely only on verified websites to avoid falling prey to fake result portals that often surface during this period.

As the board puts finishing touches on what promises to be one of the most significant academic announcements of the year, the entire education community waits with bated breath. Whether the results arrive on April 14, later this week or by the end of the month, one thing is certain — they will shape the immediate academic futures of lakhs of young Indians and spark nationwide conversations about performance, equity and the evolving landscape of school education in the country.

Michael Petersen

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and I’m Mike Petersen, Chair of Scales Corporation. And it’s my pleasure to welcome you all to this annual meeting. Thanks for coming out today. I know it’s a beautiful day outside, and you would probably rather be enjoying it in the sun. But we’re thrilled to have you in attendance here, not only in person but online as well as through the virtual meeting today.

It’s a 114th Annual Meeting of the company, the 12th since it became a listed company and my fourth as chair. Once again, we’re holding a hybrid annual meeting and whether you are here in person or joining us online, I’d like to thank you and welcome you all.

As you may recall, shareholders, proxies and guests attending the meeting virtually, will be able to hear and see a live webcast. In addition, shareholders and proxies have the ability to ask questions and vote on resolutions. I’ll provide further details on those matters shortly. Just wanting to roll off on the floor.

Some housekeeping matters for those of you who have joined us in person. First, I’d like to remind you as a matter of courtesy to please turn your mobile phones to silent. Also, if there’s an emergency we need to leave, please do so through the marked exits. Staff will be available to help us in the eventuality that, that happens.

I’m pleased to confirm that we have a quorum and, therefore, declare the 2026 Annual Shareholders Meeting of

Thailand is transitioning from fragmented, sector-specific environmental regulations to a unified and comprehensive national framework through its proposed Climate Change Act (CCA). This legislative shift, driven by international trade pressures such as the EU’s carbon border adjustments and domestic net-zero commitments, aims to establish an economy-wide architecture for carbon management.

Key Points

• Structural Regulatory Shift: The draft CCA moves away from traditional pollution control toward a centralized governance regime that includes statutory emissions targets, mandatory reporting for designated operators, and market-based mechanisms.
• Core Market Mechanisms: The Act proposes an emissions trading scheme (ETS), a potential carbon tax based on emissions intensity, and a regulated framework for the verification and trading of carbon credits.
• Green Taxonomy Integration: Thailand has introduced a “traffic-light” (Green, Amber, Red) classification system to define sustainable economic activities, which is expected to become the standard for disclosure requirements and sustainable finance.
• Legal Risks: Companies face increasing exposure to litigation regarding “greenwashing” or misleading sustainability claims, which may be prosecuted under securities laws, consumer protection statutes, or the new CCA enforcement regime.
• Regional Interoperability: The legislation is designed to be technically compatible with foreign carbon markets, with long-term goals of integrating Thailand’s carbon mechanisms with those of neighboring ASEAN states.
• Adaptive Legislation: The Act is structured as “living legislation,” featuring a mandatory five-year review cycle that allows authorities to tighten targets and recalibrate regulatory tools without requiring constant parliamentary amendments.
• Preparation Strategy: Businesses are encouraged to establish emissions baselines and internal carbon pricing frameworks immediately, rather than waiting for the formal enactment of the law.

Thailand is being driven to adopt a centralized, economy-wide carbon management framework (the draft Climate Change Act) by a combination of domestic policy imperatives and external market pressures.

Domestic Drivers

• Net-Zero Commitments: The primary domestic driver is the government’s commitment to achieving national net-zero policy goals, which require the transition from incremental, sector-specific regulations to a unified, enforceable legislative framework.
• Standardization of Sustainability: There is a need to establish a centralized governance regime that can effectively translate national emissions targets into binding obligations for specific sectors and operators.
• Integration of Fiscal and Market Tools: The government aims to move beyond traditional pollution control toward a system that integrates mandatory greenhouse gas reporting, emissions trading schemes (ETS), and potential carbon taxes to manage environmental impact at scale.

International Drivers

• International Trade Pressures: Thai exporters face significant risks from external regulations, most notably the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) . Without a domestic carbon pricing mechanism, Thai goods may be subject to carbon tariffs, placing them at a competitive disadvantage in global markets.
• Investor Demand: There is growing pressure from investors for credible, standardized sustainability regulation. This includes the use of a “traffic-light” green taxonomy to categorize economic activities against technical screening criteria, which influences sustainable finance and disclosure requirements.
• Regional Integration: Thailand is positioning its carbon management framework to be technically compatible with foreign carbon markets. The draft Act anticipates future connectivity with carbon markets in neighboring ASEAN states, which will likely evolve through bilateral or plurilateral arrangements based on regulatory equivalence and mutual recognition.

While political delays have pushed the timeline for enactment, legal experts advise businesses to proactively implement emissions tracking and internal governance systems to prepare for mandatory reporting, carbon pricing, and stricter sustainability disclosure standards.

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of DTEGF either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

NEW YORK — David Letterman, the longtime face of CBS’s late-night television, has sharply criticized the network’s decision to end “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” after more than three decades of the franchise and hand the coveted 11:35 p.m. time slot to syndicated programming from media mogul Byron Allen.

In a candid conversation on his Netflix podcast released Friday, the 79-year-old comedy icon described the move as a clear cost-cutting measure rather than a creative choice. “They don’t want to spend any money, so they’re going to make money,” Letterman said while speaking with former “Late Show” executive producers Barbara Gaines and Mary Barclay.

CBS announced earlier this month that Colbert’s final episode will air May 21. Starting May 22, the network will air back-to-back half-hour episodes of Allen’s “Comics Unleashed” in the former “Late Show” slot, followed by Allen’s game show “Funny You Should Ask” at 12:35 a.m. The arrangement is a time-buy deal for the 2026-27 television season under which Allen Media Group pays CBS for the airtime and sells all the advertising itself.

Letterman, who hosted “Late Night with David Letterman” on NBC from 1982 to 1993 before moving to CBS to launch “The Late Show” in 1993 and retiring in 2015, suggested the shift marks the end of an era for big-budget, network-produced late-night talk shows. He characterized Allen’s panel-style format positively but bluntly tied the decision to finances. “They charge Byron Allen some reasonable price. He sells all the advertising for his ‘Comics Unleashed,’ and it’ll be, I think, 90 minutes or two hours of comics talking about funny stuff,” Letterman said. “The show is a pretty good idea. It’s all panel. Nobody’s doing any stand-up, except they’re seated doing stand-up.”

The comments come as the traditional late-night model faces mounting economic pressures. Ratings for “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” have declined in recent years amid broader industry challenges, including audience fragmentation across streaming platforms and competition from YouTube, podcasts and cable news. Colbert’s program, known for its sharp political satire, often targeted former President Donald Trump and other conservative figures, drawing both praise and criticism depending on the viewer’s perspective.

CBS, now under Paramount Skydance ownership, has described the change as a way to turn a financially challenged late-night hour into a profitable one without the high production costs associated with a full-scale talk show featuring a house band, celebrity guests, writers’ rooms and extensive staff. Industry insiders say the time-buy model allows the network to collect revenue while offloading creative and operational responsibilities to Allen Media Group.

Byron Allen, a comedian, producer and billionaire businessman who built Allen Media Group into a major independent syndication force, has long aired “Comics Unleashed” in later time slots. The show features Allen moderating a panel of comedians riffing on topics in a roundtable format. Allen has called the upgrade to the 11:35 p.m. slot a career milestone, joking in recent interviews that after decades in the business he is ready for the spotlight. Reports indicate he is paying tens of millions of dollars for the lease, betting that strong ad sales and broader distribution will make the venture lucrative.

The transition ends a 33-year run for “The Late Show” brand on CBS. Letterman’s version defined the franchise with its quirky humor, innovative segments and memorable interviews. Colbert, who took over in 2015 after a successful run on Comedy Central’s “The Colbert Report,” brought a more politically charged voice that resonated during the Trump era but faced declining viewership in recent seasons.

Some television observers view the move as part of a larger industry reckoning. As streaming services and digital platforms siphon younger audiences, traditional broadcast networks are rethinking expensive original programming in fringe hours. Similar cost-conscious experiments have appeared at other networks, though none have fully abandoned the late-night talk format yet.

Letterman’s remarks carry extra weight given his deep history with CBS. He expressed disappointment that the network appeared unwilling to invest in developing a new high-profile host or sustaining the established brand. His podcast comments quickly spread across social media, with fans and industry figures debating whether the change signals the death of traditional late night or simply an evolution toward more sustainable models.

Allen, who began his career as a stand-up and later became one of the most successful Black media executives in Hollywood, brings a different energy. His programming emphasizes accessible comedy without heavy political commentary, potentially appealing to a broader, less polarized audience. Supporters argue the format could attract advertisers wary of controversy, while critics lament the loss of a platform for cultural and political satire that “The Late Show” provided under Colbert.

CBS has not publicly responded to Letterman’s comments. A network spokesperson previously described the Allen deal as a strategic step to ensure profitability in late night while maintaining comedy programming. The network will continue airing local news lead-ins, preserving the traditional flow into the 11:35 p.m. hour.

For viewers, the change means a shift from monologues, celebrity interviews and musical performances to a steady diet of panel comedy and game-show laughs. Whether the new lineup can retain the audience that tuned in for Colbert remains to be seen. Early social media reactions have been mixed, with some praising the lighter tone and others expressing nostalgia for the “Late Show” era.

Letterman, who has largely stayed out of the spotlight since retiring and focusing on his Netflix series “My Next Guest Needs No Introduction,” used the podcast moment to reflect on the business realities of television. At 79, he continues to offer unfiltered opinions shaped by decades at the top of the industry.

The final weeks of “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” are expected to feature emotional farewells, high-profile guests and retrospectives. Colbert has not yet detailed his post-CBS plans, though speculation includes potential streaming projects or a return to more flexible formats.

As the calendar turns to May 22, CBS affiliates will debut the new comedy block. Byron Allen’s “Comics Unleashed” will lead, followed by “Funny You Should Ask.” The arrangement covers at least the 2026-27 season, with options for renewal depending on performance.

Letterman’s blunt assessment has reignited conversations about the future of broadcast television. In an era of cord-cutting and digital disruption, networks face difficult choices between prestige programming and bottom-line stability. His words — “They don’t wanna spend any money” — have become a succinct summary of the tension playing out behind the scenes at CBS and across the industry.

For a franchise that once defined late-night comedy, the transition to a syndicated time-buy represents a stark departure. Whether Allen’s panel format can capture lightning in a bottle or simply fill the hour profitably will determine if this experiment becomes a template for other networks or a cautionary tale.

In the meantime, fans of traditional late-night talk shows may find themselves flipping channels or turning to streaming replays of Letterman and Colbert classics. The desert of 11:35 p.m. is about to look very different, and the man who once ruled it has made clear he is not impressed with the new tenant.

Since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have withdrawn a staggering $18 billion from Indian equities, causing the Nifty to tumble more than 9% from its 52-week high. What was once the world’s favorite emerging market growth story has rapidly transformed into a “no-go” zone as global capital flee amid rising energy prices.

While a sharp market correction has brought valuations down to fair levels, institutional desks are not yet signaling a “compelling buy.” Instead, a sense of urgency has taken hold as the math for dollar-based investors fundamentally breaks.

Market data from Elara Securities shows that India remains an outlier in emerging markets as it saw outflows extend to the fifth consecutive week while other EMs saw flows stabilizing.

Here are the seven brutal truths driving the great FII retreat:

1) The Ceasefire Mirage

The two-week truce in the Iran-US conflict gave markets a brief bounce, but institutional investors are not treating it as a turning point. FIIs view the pause as tactical, not diplomatic. With a blockade still looming and the threat of a “Phase 2” escalation firmly on the table, global funds are staying on the sidelines until a long-term settlement is actually signed. In the language of markets, this has been a dead cat bounce and sophisticated money knows it.

Also Read | Is Nifty’s cheap-looking valuation a mirage? Why $100 oil could trap value hunters

2) Crude Oil: The Twin Deficit Time Bomb

Brent crude hovering near $100 a barrel is not just an energy story for India but a macro-stability threat. FIIs are acutely conscious of the twin deficit trap: elevated oil prices simultaneously widen the current account deficit and stoke domestic inflation, creating pressure on the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates precisely when the economy needs relief.

3) The Yield Spread Has Flipped Against India

The arithmetic for foreign investors has fundamentally shifted. As US 10-year Treasury yields climb toward 4.5%, the risk premium for holding Indian equities has compressed sharply. Compounding the problem is the rupee, which recently breached the ₹95 mark for the first time. For dollar-based investors, currency depreciation acts as a silent tax on returns. And when risk-free USD assets are yielding meaningfully, the case for enduring emerging market volatility weakens considerably.

4) Better Returns Are Available Elsewhere

India is losing the capital allocation argument to its regional peers. Markets like South Korea and Taiwan are considered significantly more attractive from an FII perspective, with expectations of far superior earnings growth compared to the modest outlook for India in FY27. When global funds run relative value screens, India is no longer automatically at the top.

5) India’s Tax Regime Has Become a Competitive Disadvantage

India’s evolving tax landscape is increasingly being cited as a structural deterrent. The 2024 Union Budget raised short-term capital gains tax from 15% to 20% and pushed long-term capital gains tax from 10% to 12.5%. Combined with tweaks to the LTCG/STCG structure and a hike in Securities Transaction Tax (STT) from FY27, the cost of entry and exit for global funds has risen materially. When benchmarked against tax-friendly regimes in competing destinations like Vietnam or Indonesia, India’s framework is no longer the draw it once was.

6) Four and a Half Years of Zero Returns

Perhaps the most haunting statistic circulating in global investment banks is this: measured in US dollar terms, the Nifty has delivered almost zero CAGR since late 2021. For a global fund manager who held Indian stocks for four-plus years only to watch currency depreciation erase every capital gain, making the case for re-entry to an investment committee is an exceptionally difficult conversation.

7) The Earnings Shock

Beyond the immediate geopolitical crisis, a deeper fear is building: a structural earnings downgrade for India Inc. War-induced supply chain disruptions and elevated input costs are expected to weigh heavily on the Q1 and Q2 margins of India’s manufacturing and FMCG sectors. FIIs appear to be front-running this earnings shock by exiting before official numbers confirm what the macro data already suggests.

The double-digit earnings growth that was supposed to define FY27 is now at serious risk. If the geopolitical storm persists, that growth could be downgraded to single digits, delayed by at least two quarters, and potentially reset structurally lower.

The Bottom Line

The correction has brought Indian valuations down from stretched to fair. But fair is not a buy signal for investors who can find better risk-reward elsewhere, who are staring at a zero-return track record, and who face a macro backdrop that could deteriorate further before it improves. Until crude stabilises, the ceasefire holds credibly, and earnings guidance provides a floor, the $18 billion exodus may be the beginning of a longer reckoning.