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India the new ‘no-go’ zone for FIIs? 7 brutal truths behind $18 billion exodus

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India the new 'no-go' zone for FIIs? 7 brutal truths behind $18 billion exodus
Since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have withdrawn a staggering $18 billion from Indian equities, causing the Nifty to tumble more than 9% from its 52-week high. What was once the world’s favorite emerging market growth story has rapidly transformed into a “no-go” zone as global capital flee amid rising energy prices.

While a sharp market correction has brought valuations down to fair levels, institutional desks are not yet signaling a “compelling buy.” Instead, a sense of urgency has taken hold as the math for dollar-based investors fundamentally breaks.

Market data from Elara Securities shows that India remains an outlier in emerging markets as it saw outflows extend to the fifth consecutive week while other EMs saw flows stabilizing.

Here are the seven brutal truths driving the great FII retreat:

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1) The Ceasefire Mirage

The two-week truce in the Iran-US conflict gave markets a brief bounce, but institutional investors are not treating it as a turning point. FIIs view the pause as tactical, not diplomatic. With a blockade still looming and the threat of a “Phase 2” escalation firmly on the table, global funds are staying on the sidelines until a long-term settlement is actually signed. In the language of markets, this has been a dead cat bounce and sophisticated money knows it.


Also Read | Is Nifty’s cheap-looking valuation a mirage? Why $100 oil could trap value hunters

2) Crude Oil: The Twin Deficit Time Bomb

Brent crude hovering near $100 a barrel is not just an energy story for India but a macro-stability threat. FIIs are acutely conscious of the twin deficit trap: elevated oil prices simultaneously widen the current account deficit and stoke domestic inflation, creating pressure on the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates precisely when the economy needs relief.

3) The Yield Spread Has Flipped Against India

The arithmetic for foreign investors has fundamentally shifted. As US 10-year Treasury yields climb toward 4.5%, the risk premium for holding Indian equities has compressed sharply. Compounding the problem is the rupee, which recently breached the ₹95 mark for the first time. For dollar-based investors, currency depreciation acts as a silent tax on returns. And when risk-free USD assets are yielding meaningfully, the case for enduring emerging market volatility weakens considerably.

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4) Better Returns Are Available Elsewhere


India is losing the capital allocation argument to its regional peers. Markets like South Korea and Taiwan are considered significantly more attractive from an FII perspective, with expectations of far superior earnings growth compared to the modest outlook for India in FY27. When global funds run relative value screens, India is no longer automatically at the top.

5) India’s Tax Regime Has Become a Competitive Disadvantage


India’s evolving tax landscape is increasingly being cited as a structural deterrent. The 2024 Union Budget raised short-term capital gains tax from 15% to 20% and pushed long-term capital gains tax from 10% to 12.5%. Combined with tweaks to the LTCG/STCG structure and a hike in Securities Transaction Tax (STT) from FY27, the cost of entry and exit for global funds has risen materially. When benchmarked against tax-friendly regimes in competing destinations like Vietnam or Indonesia, India’s framework is no longer the draw it once was.

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6) Four and a Half Years of Zero Returns


Perhaps the most haunting statistic circulating in global investment banks is this: measured in US dollar terms, the Nifty has delivered almost zero CAGR since late 2021. For a global fund manager who held Indian stocks for four-plus years only to watch currency depreciation erase every capital gain, making the case for re-entry to an investment committee is an exceptionally difficult conversation.

7) The Earnings Shock


Beyond the immediate geopolitical crisis, a deeper fear is building: a structural earnings downgrade for India Inc. War-induced supply chain disruptions and elevated input costs are expected to weigh heavily on the Q1 and Q2 margins of India’s manufacturing and FMCG sectors. FIIs appear to be front-running this earnings shock by exiting before official numbers confirm what the macro data already suggests.

The double-digit earnings growth that was supposed to define FY27 is now at serious risk. If the geopolitical storm persists, that growth could be downgraded to single digits, delayed by at least two quarters, and potentially reset structurally lower.

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The Bottom Line

The correction has brought Indian valuations down from stretched to fair. But fair is not a buy signal for investors who can find better risk-reward elsewhere, who are staring at a zero-return track record, and who face a macro backdrop that could deteriorate further before it improves. Until crude stabilises, the ceasefire holds credibly, and earnings guidance provides a floor, the $18 billion exodus may be the beginning of a longer reckoning.

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FinVolution Group 2026 Q1 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:FINV) 2026-05-25

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

This article was written by

Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team

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The crop that thrives in the toughest conditions

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The crop that thrives in the toughest conditions

“Custard apple sits in a strange gap. Demand is rising, but the farming hasn’t gone high-tech as the crop is naturally hardy. It grows in poor soil, needs very little water, and survives on rainfall. Farmers don’t need expensive irrigation, sensors, or controlled environments so tech adoption stays low,” he says.

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Hindalco to deliver a robust show, Novelis will turn around in FY27: Satish Pai

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Hindalco to deliver a robust show, Novelis will turn around in FY27: Satish Pai
Hindalco Industries‘ performance in the ongoing quarter will be better than the last quarter of FY26, and the next fiscal will mark the turnaround of its US arm Novelis, managing director Satish Pai told Nikita Periwal in an interview. Pai also said aluminium prices are likely to remain elevated at least until the end of 2026. Edited excerpts:

How much of Hindalco’s India business performance is driven by structural factors and how much is cyclical?

The upstream business for any commodity is driven by LME (London Metal Exchange)… Our profitability rose proportionately with the gains in LME, but our aluminium downstream business is not linked to LME and still had a great quarter. For copper, it was because of sulphuric acid and the downstream business. So, a part of it is related to pricing, but for manufacturing companies, a large part of it is also how well you run your operations and take care of your customers. Therefore, both factors have to be given credit.

How sustainable are these numbers?
The first quarter of FY27 will be better than the fourth quarter of FY26. We feel that prices will be in the range of $3,400-$3,500 per tonne at least up to the end of 2026. About 2.5-3.0 million tonnes of aluminium have gone off the market because of the West Asia crisis, and it will take six months to get these back online.

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Between the higher prices of aluminium and higher input costs, what will profitability look like?
Commodity prices are much higher compared with our cost of production, so it is safe to say fiscal 2027 is going to be much stronger. The first three quarters of this year are going to be very strong.


Will the company’s performance in India overshadow that at Novelis?
Fiscal 2027 will be the turnaround year for Novelis-one, because of Oswego, which will restart next week, and the other reason is the commissioning of the hot mill in Bay Minette. Once these two are done, deleveraging will start from FY28. Ebitda will also start to stabilise at around $500 per tonne on a consistent basis. Next year, even if LME corrects, Novelis will be back. This year is a positive inflection point for Novelis.
Will the IPO for Novelis be planned by FY28?
No. The only focus for Novelis is the restart of Oswego and the full commissioning of Bay Minette.
Do you think the fires at Oswego have impacted investor sentiment for Novelis?
We have done some analysis to make sure this does not happen again. But what the fires have shown the market and the customers is that companies like Novelis have an advantage because they have scale. We have managed to keep supplying Ford Motor because of our worldwide presence and scale.

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Government vows to act as under-16s social media ban consultation ends

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Government vows to act as under-16s social media ban consultation ends

“Later today, I, and other families who have lost children to social media, will tell the prime minister directly: social media is a product, and like any other faulty product causing the deaths of children, it should be restricted until the companies responsible have fixed it and proven it is safe,” Ellen said.

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Next boss warns of 'dramatic' fall in entry-level jobs

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Next boss warns of 'dramatic' fall in entry-level jobs

Lord Wolfson tells the BBC Next now typically receives double the number of applicants for one role than it did two years ago.

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Hyundai recalls 421k Tucson and Santa Cruz models for braking bug

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Hyundai recalls 421k Tucson and Santa Cruz models for braking bug

A recall issued by Hyundai could impact more than 421,000 vehicles after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) discovered a software bug.

The software issue in the front cameras may cause the forward collision-avoidance system to activate prematurely. This means the brakes could unexpectedly be applied, potentially causing a crash, according to the announcement.

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MASSIVE HONDA RECALL IMPACTS 440K VEHICLES OVER AIRBAGS POTENTIALLY DEPLOYING ‘UNEXPECTEDLY’

A Hyundai Tucson Hybrid

Hyundai Tuscon Plug-in hybrid crossover SUV on display. Hyundai has recalled more than 421,000 vehicles over a software bug that could cause the vehicles to brake prematurely.  (Getty Images / Getty Images)

Four crashes have been reported, the NHTSA said in a May 19 recall report.

The recall includes certain 2025–2026 Hyundai Santa Cruz, Tucson, Tucson Hybrid, and Tucson Plug-In Hybrid vehicles.

Between October 28, 2024, and April 27, 2026, Hyundai received 376 reports related to the operation of the Forward Collision-Avoidance (FCA) system, the report states.

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TESLA RECALLS MORE THAN 218K VEHICLES OVER REARVIEW IMAGE ISSUE THAT POSES CRASH RISK

Out of the hundreds of reports received, four indicated crashes where the Hyundai vehicle was rear-ended by a closely following vehicle, resulting in four alleged injuries.

Owners of the recalled vehicles are expected to receive notification letters by July 17, the NHTSA said.

To remedy the issue, owners must bring their vehicles to a Hyundai dealer, where technicians will update the front camera software for free.

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The Hyundai logo is displayed at the New York International Auto Show, March 28, 2018, at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in New York City (Drew Angerer/Getty Images / Getty Images)

GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE

Last week, Hyundai recalled more than 54,000 Elantra Hybrid vehicles in the U.S. due to a defect in the hybrid power system that could overheat and spark a fire.

FOX Business has reached out to Hyundai. 

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Lumentum Holdings Inc.’s SWOT analysis: optical stock positioned for AI data center growth

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Lumentum Holdings Inc.’s SWOT analysis: optical stock positioned for AI data center growth

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FM Sitharaman says Government open to hear investor concerns on LTCG, STCG taxation

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FM Sitharaman says Government open to hear investor concerns on LTCG, STCG taxation
New Delhi: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said the government is willing to listen to concerns raised by stock market investors regarding the tax system, including issues related to Long-Term Capital Gains (LTCG) and Short-Term Capital Gains (STCG) taxation.

Speaking to the media on the sidelines of the TEXPROCIL Export Awards event on Monday, the Union Finance Minister said the government remains open to receiving suggestions and feedback from investors on the matter.

Also Read: The three Fs that Sitharaman flagged as India braces for a widening global oil shock, forex strain

“On this specific issue, and on any issue, we are always ready and willing to listen to the people. We will certainly take their inputs,” Sitharaman said while responding to questions regarding demands from stock market participants for a review of LTCG and STCG taxes.

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Her remarks come amid growing discussions among market participants over the impact of capital gains taxation on equity market participation and investor sentiment.


LTCG and STCG are taxes imposed on profits earned from selling shares and other financial assets.
Short-Term Capital Gains (STCG) tax is charged when shares are sold within a shorter holding period, while Long-Term Capital Gains (LTCG) tax applies when investments are held for a longer duration before being sold.The Union Finance Minister, however, did not announce any formal review or change in the taxation structure.

Also Read: FM asks lenders to go beyond standard loans, design credit repayments around biz cycles

Her remarks only indicated that the government is open to hearing feedback and suggestions from stakeholders regarding the current tax framework.

The comments come at a time when domestic equity markets have been witnessing increased volatility due to global geopolitical tensions, crude oil price movements, foreign investor flows and concerns related to inflation and interest rates.

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Sitharaman’s statement is being viewed by investors as a signal that the government is willing to engage with stakeholders and consider their concerns regarding market-related taxation issues.

She also addressed crucial domestic fiscal issues, firmly clarifying the mechanics behind recent petrol and diesel hikes before weighing in on gold optimisation, the RBI dividend, and India’s growth trajectory amid the West Asia crisis.

FM Sitharaman clarified that price hikes are purely operational and driven by global procurement realities rather than sudden government policy changes.

She also revealed that the central government had previously absorbed massive shocks–resulting in a Rs 1 lakh crore fiscal hit from reducing central taxes–to insulate consumers for over two and a half months.

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CD rates on the rise could soon bring more on retail deposits

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CD rates on the rise could soon bring more on retail deposits
Mumbai: Costs on certificates of deposit (CD), often seen as a leading proxy for the broader retail deposit rates, rose 60 to 70 basis points in May compared with April, pointing to the likelihood that banks would soon begin offering savers more returns for parking funds with them.

One basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.

One-year CD rates are quoting at 7.70%, compared with around 7% at the end of April as tighter liquidity and demand for funds compel banks to offer higher rates for large institutional deposits, typically with a ticket size of ₹500 crore or more.

Bankers and analysts expect the price of deposits to go up, eventually buoying retail deposit rates, even if the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) does not immediately raise policy rates. To be sure, the quantum of increase in deposit rates would be in line with the rise in policy rates.

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“Higher CD rates definitely indicate that money is becoming more expensive. It is correct to say that deposit rates will go higher, but when and how much will depend on how the RBI moves from here,” said Gopal Tripathi, head of treasury and capital markets at Jana Small Finance Bank. “The longer end of the CD curve is pricing in a repo hike sooner or later this year. Deposit rates are likely to move upwards.”

CD Rates on the Rise Could Soon Bring More on Retail Deposits

Fund flow One-year certificate of deposit rates jump 60-70 bps in May amid tighter liquidity and strong demand; market also said to be pricing in a repo hike later this year

Liquidity Crunch
Tripathi pointed out that the gap between the one-year government treasury bill, the short tenure borrowing benchmark for the government, and one year CD rate is now 200 basis points. In normal course, that differential is 130 to 140 basis points, indicating tighter liquidity for the banking system. The 364-day t-bill is quoting around 5.75%.
Soumyajit Niyogi, director, core analytical group, India Ratings & Research, said the firmed up CD rates clearly point to tighter liquidity in the banking system.

“It is fair to assume that retail deposit rates will also move up. System liquidity has shrunk further from about 2.5% of banking deposits in March to about 0.5% of deposits now,” Niyogi said. “Going forward, as banks are expected to disburse large credit as part of the govt package to MSMEs, there will be more pressure on liquidity. We should expect deposit rates to go up from here.”

Average daily banking system liquidity has shrunk to about ₹50,000 crore from about ₹3 lakh crore in April. Bankers said all these facets point to more expensive deposits. “Even the mutual fund money, which made its way to CDs has shrunk; so, all in all, we are in a tighter situation,” said a senior public sector bank official.

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Of course, it all depends on how and when RBI moves with the benchmark repo rate, which will force banks’ hands to raise deposit rates,” said a senior public sector bank official.

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Williams-Sonoma: Current Valuation Supports A 'Hold'

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Williams-Sonoma: Current Valuation Supports A 'Hold'

Williams-Sonoma: Current Valuation Supports A 'Hold'

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