Lots of smart people think President Trump and the Republicans have a very steep uphill climb if they expect to win the midterms, especially the House. Newt Gingrich thinks if the election were today the GOP would lose. I’ve been exhorting GOP leaders to tout the red-hot economy with numbers and repetition, as often as possible, at every campaign stop.

More positive numbers came out today for the Institute for Supply Managers, where the combined purchasing managers’ indexes for manufacturing and services are the best they’ve been in nearly two years. And there’s a business boom. And there’s a productivity boom. And wages are outstripping inflation. Yet it’s a story that has got to be told, including the Trump Accounts, which can turn working-class minority children into millionaires. Where the next generation of youngsters can be a nation of owners, democratizing stock ownership, and understanding the miracles of free-market capitalism. That, too, is a story that has to be told over and over again.

Yet not all is lost. The latest Harvard CAPS Harris poll shows some improvement in personal financial situations, and though it’s still underwater, it’s getting better. That same poll shows a strong support for Mr. Trump closing the border. And 73 percent say criminal illegal aliens should be deported, 67 percent say local jails should hand over criminal illegals to federal authorities for deportation, which is exactly what the border czar, Tom Homan, is trying to do. And roughly 60 percent see the Democrats as encouraging resistance to deporting criminal illegals.

Another part of that poll shows that 60 percent favor a platform described as reduced government spending, lower taxes, tougher trade deals, lower prescription drug costs, and a closed border, which is of course, the Trump package. And only 40 percent prefer more government spending, liberal immigration, more taxes, and higher healthcare subsidies. Polls are not votes, but good polls are informative.

And finally, money matters. Politico is reporting that Mr. Trump raised $26 million through his joint fundraising committee in the back half of last year. And another $8 million directly into his leadership political action committee. A super PAC linked to him has more than $300 million in the bank. That’s a lot of money. All in, they estimate the president’s orbit has $375 million of firepower. And the president is outstripping everybody in fundraising by a long shot.

So, all is not lost. It’s still early in the game.

Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott said Wednesday that he doesn’t think Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell committed a crime during his testimony last summer about the central bank’s costly renovation project.

Scott, R-S.C., said in an appearance on FOX Business’ “Mornings with Maria” that while he has other issues with how Powell has led the central bank and its monetary policy moves, he doesn’t believe that the Fed chair committed a crime in his testimony.

“As it relates to the DOJ investigation, I’ll tell you what I would tell a prosecutor if they came into my office. I was the one asking the questions, Jay Powell was responding to me. Obviously, he and I have very, very strong disagreements on many issues, No. 1,” Scott said. “No. 2, I believe that it’s time for a new Federal [Reserve] chair. Thank God almighty, we’re getting ready to get one.” 

“No. 3, I found him to be inept at doing his job, but ineptness or being incompetent is not a criminal act. I believe what he did was make a gross error in judgment, he was not prepared for that hearing. I do not believe that he committed a crime during the hearing,” Scott said.

TRUMP SAYS HE WILL NOT DROP DOJ CRIMINAL PROBE INTO FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL

The Department of Justice opened a criminal inquiry into whether Powell misled Congress during his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last summer about the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation, which has run over budget.

The criminal probe came against the backdrop of an effort by President Donald Trump and his allies to pressure Powell and the Fed into cutting interest rates to spur the economy. 

Powell denied wrongdoing and called the probe a pretext for exerting political influence over monetary policy decisions.

TRUMP’S FED PICK KEVIN WARSH FACES UNEXPECTED ROADBLOCK OVER ONGOING POWELL PROBE

A key member of the Senate Banking Committee, Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., responded to the probe by vowing to block any Federal Reserve nomination until the DOJ’s investigation of Powell concludes.

“If there were any remaining doubt whether advisors within the Trump administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none. It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question,” Tillis said last month.

POWELL OFFERS ADVICE FOR NEXT FED CHAIR, ADDRESSES FUTURE AT CENTRAL BANK

Scott told Bartiromo on Wednesday that he thinks the investigation of Powell will be resolved and that will clear the path for considering the nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to serve as the next chair of the central bank. 

Trump nominated Warsh to the role last week, and Tillis reiterated his stance that he won’t consider Fed nominees until the DOJ probe is over.

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“I believe that we’re going to resolve that issue, we’re going to move forward and Thom Tillis will be voting for Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. That’s my prediction,” Scott said.

Kristin Dziczek

Well, thank you so much for coming back and staying with us. This you won’t want to miss. So it’s my pleasure to introduce our next session, managing transformation in a dynamic environment. [Operator Instructions] I’d first like to introduce our moderator, Mike Colias. Mike is the U.S. Auto Editor for Reuters. He’s long covered the auto industry and for the Wall Street Journal and Automotive News, and he’s the author of a 2025 book, Inevitable: Inside the Messy, Unstoppable Transition to Electric Vehicles. So he’s pretty ideally positioned to lead today’s fireside chat with GM’s CFO, Paul Jacobson.

And speaking of which we are tremendously honored that Paul has decided to join us. He’s a well-known around Detroit and in the auto industry since he joined General Motors in 2020 as the Executive Vice President and CFO. He’s established himself as an exceptional leader on GM’s executive team, demonstrating a remarkable financial stewardship during some very unprecedented business and industry challenges.

From navigating the post-pandemic supply chain disruptions to orchestrating GM’s strategic pathway to EV profitability and tariffs and what we can all agree has been a very uncertain policy environment. Under Paul’s guidance, GM has delivered impressive results in 2025 with robust earnings and a strong outlook. We are again thankful that Paul has agreed to join us today to share his insights.

I’ll bring Paul up for a few remarks, and then Mike will join him on stage for the Q&A.

Paul Jacobson
Executive VP & CFO

Well, thank you all. I was having to look around to figure out who

FSN E-Commerce, which owns Beauty & Personal Care (BPC) brand Nykaa, is expected to report a strong set of numbers in the December ended quarter, led by robust festive demand, sustained momentum in its BPC segment. Brokerage estimates show the company could deliver up to 192% surge in its Q3FY26 net profit falling in the range of Rs 60 crore to Rs 78 crore. The revenue growth is pegged at 26%-28%, estimates revealed, forecasting the topline in the range of Rs 2,859 crore to Rs 2,902 crore.

The estimates from ElaraCapital, Nuvama Institutional Equities and JM Financial have been taken into account. The margins could take a hit in the October-December quarter.

The company will announce its earnings on Thursday, February 5.

Here’s what estimates say about these four key parameters:

1) PAT

— Elara Capital: Rs 60 crore, up 128% YoY and 88% QoQ
— Nuvama: Rs Rs 64 crore, up 139% YoY and 89% QoQ
— JM Financial: Rs 78 crore, up 192% YoY and 117% QoQ
2) Revenues
— Elara Capital: Rs 2,869 crore, up 27% YoY and 22% QoQ
— Nuvama Institutional Equities: Rs 2,902 crore, up 28% YoY and 24% QoQ
— JM Financial: Rs 2,859 crore, up 26% YoY and 22% QoQ

3) EBITDA
— Elara Capital: Rs 202 crore, up 43% YoY and 27% QoQ
— Nuvama Institutional Equities: Rs 209 crore, up 48% YoY and 31% QoQ
— JM Financial: Rs 215 crore, up 52% YoY and 35% QoQ

4) EBITDA margin

Nuvama has pegged the Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) at 7.2% in Q3FY26, down 100 bps YoY and down 40 bps QoQ. Meanwhile, JM Financial sees margin expansion of 130 bps YoY, indicating sustained operating leverage.

Read more: Tata Motors PV Q3 Preview: JLR hit to weigh on profits; revenue may slip up to 9% despite festive, GST tailwinds

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

NEW DELHI: India and the United States have struck a trade deal to cut ‍U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% in exchange for New Delhi halting purchases of Russian oil and lowering trade barriers.

Both ⁠sides have shared the broad outlines of the deal but not the details, with early indications suggesting India will grant the U.S. only limited access to its agricultural market.

WILL INDIA LOWER TARIFFS ON US CORN, SOYBEANS OR SOYMEAL?
India, which bans genetically modified (GM) food crops, is unlikely to ‌lower tariffs on ‌imported farm goods such as corn, soybeans and soymeal as it seeks to protect millions of small farmers who eke out a living on meagre incomes.

The United States ‌primarily produces GM corn and soybeans, limiting the scope for market access in India.

Unlike China, which buys millions of tons of corn and soybeans from the United States, India’s import requirements for both crops are relatively small.

India is holding large stockpiles of corn and soymeal, an animal feed derived from crushing soybeans for soyoil.
While India is the world’s largest importer of soyoil, sourcing supplies mainly from Brazil, Argentina and the United States, its overseas purchases of soybeans remain negligible, including from Africa where non-genetically modified oilseeds are produced. India also has ample supplies of domestically produced ethanol, made ‌from corn, rice ‍and sugarcane, making it unlikely to concede to requests for imports of either ethanol or ‍corn as feedstock for ethanol production.

While the U.S. has pushed for greater access to ‌India’s dairy market, long protected by high import duties and non-tariff barriers, New Delhi is likely to keep the sector off the table given its importance to farmer livelihoods.

The average herd size in India is only two to three animals per farmer, compared to hundreds in the United States – a difference that puts small Indian farmers at a disadvantage, Indian officials have argued.

WHERE ELSE COULD INDIA CEDE GROUND IN AGRICULTURE?
India could agree to lowering tariffs or allowing expanded import quotas on farm products such as almonds, walnuts, pistachios, apples, pears and berries. New Delhi could also lower ‍trade barriers for fruits and vegetables, wine and spirits – the areas that do not tend to hurt Indian farmers.

Since India is already import-dependent for almonds, walnuts, pistachios, apples, pears and berries, it ‍would be easier for ⁠Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata ⁠Party to sell any lowering of import barriers on these premium farm products to voters and other political constituencies.

Similarly, President Donald Trump’s administration can tout access to Indian markets as a major win for American farmers.

WHY AGRICULTURE REMAINS SENSITIVE ISSUE FOR INDIA
Although the farm sector contributes a relatively modest 15% to India’s almost $4 trillion economy, it sustains nearly half the country’s 1.4 billion people.

Nearly 80% of Indian farmers are smallholders, owning two hectares of land or less, which limits their income. But farmers form an influential voting bloc, and successive governments have sought to avoid angering millions of growers.

The Samyukt Kisan Morcha, an umbrella group of farmers’ organisations, and its top leaders including Rakesh Tikait have already taken Modi’s government to task over its trade deal with Washington.