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strange coincidences in the appointment of a judge, a dismissed prosecutor, and a possible conspiracy
The legal dispute between Kernel Corporation and the state-owned Sense Bank is ongoing. The largest player in Ukraine’s sunflower oil market is seeking to get 1.75 billion hryvnias from the bank. The legal battle is taking place at the Kyiv Commercial Court.
I have already written about why there is a lot wrong with these proceedings. Literally everything about it is strange: how Sense Bank was drawn into the proceedings (even though it shouldn’t have been involved), how the judge was selected, and how the claim was formulated. The question of whether there are grounds for involving Sense Bank remains one of the key issues in the case. It is surprising that this $39 million has absolutely nothing to do with either Sense Bank or the state – yet they may be forced to pay it. It is also crucial to understand that the payment of 1.75 billion hryvnias will be borne by the state budget, either directly or indirectly, because it is clear that the payment of such a sum cannot fail to have a negative impact on the bank’s capital as a whole.
There is currently cause for optimism. If the court proves to be impartial, and the bank and its owner (the state, represented by the Ministry of Finance) make every reasonable effort, the likelihood of a ruling in Kernel’s favour is minimal. But this is precisely where the risks I have already written about arise.
I have reasonable doubts about the randomness of the judge’s selection, about Kernel’s motives, and even about the impartiality of Sense Bank’s senior management. Yes, this is not a ‘suspicion’ in the sense that investigators and prosecutors attach to this word, but simply my own personal assessment. However, I have a substantial body of facts that allows us to view this court case from a different angle. I have already posted some of them; I will present the rest in this text. I would suggest that representatives of the Ministry of Finance and the High Council of Justice (HCJ) pay particular attention to these facts.
A little background
The devil is in the detail, and this whole story is, quite literally, woven from details. All in all, the plot itself sounds implausible – just as a metal pole, a rope and a sheet, taken separately, cannot cross the sea. However, if you tie them together into a single raft using logs and empty plastic containers, and stretch a sheet over the pole, you’ll end up with a viable structure. In my view, that is precisely what Kernel’s lawyers did.
To understand how their case against ‘Sense’ is progressing, one needs to consider the legal intricacies, the characters’ life stories, possible signs of a conspiracy and the large sums of money involved.
I’ll start with the general framework. I have described the substance of the claim in detail, explaining why the Kernel v Sense Bank case is a matter of national importance.
If you don’t want to waste time on the details, here’s the short version. The Kyiv Commercial Court is hearing a claim brought by the Cypriot company Etrecom, which is part of the Kernel Group. The claim has been brought against another Cypriot offshore company, Greatford, which was previously linked to Sense Bank through a common shareholder. At first glance, a Ukrainian court is not required to hear a dispute between two foreign companies. However, Etrecom’s lawyers named the nationalised Sense Bank as a co-defendant and put together a tort claim that was clearly flimsy. As a result, the case fell within the jurisdiction of a Ukrainian court. However, such a claim requires careful judicial assessment as to whether it complies with the rules of jurisdiction and the appropriate remedy.
The dispute centres on a debt of $39 million. Kernel has a fairly long history of dealings with Sense Bank, dating back to when ‘Sense’ was known as ‘Alfa-Bank Ukraine’. The group was a client of the bank, took out loans, and, on the whole, the relationship had been positive. It was precisely on the basis of this positive experience that Kernel, through its company Etrecom, decided to invest its own funds in Loan Participation Notes (LPNs) issued by the Dutch independent fund E.M.I.S. Finance B.V. To this end, it purchased these bonds on the secondary market from Greatford.
Loan Participation Notes (LPNs) from E.M.I.S. were a very good instrument. The Dutch company E.M.I.S. was legally independent of Sense Bank. This ‘money bag’ in the Netherlands collected funds and then channelled them as a loan to ‘Sense’ via the bank’s parent company. The bank used this money to grant loans, and the repayments collected on those loans were eventually intended to be used to service the bonds.
Money was also collected for E.M.I.S. via ‘Sense’. Bonds issued by a Dutch company were offered for sale to clients (investors) of the Ukrainian VIP banking service of ‘Sense’, formerly known as ‘A-Club’. LPNs offered higher returns compared with foreign-currency deposits and foreign-currency government bonds, and also allowed investors to transfer substantial savings out of Ukraine without obtaining the relevant foreign-exchange licences, which was entirely legal, as investors could already receive all LPN payments into accounts held with foreign banks. That is why people were happy to buy them. The buyers included many wealthy families, represented by leading figures in Ukrainian business and senior officials.
As far as I am aware, Kernel’s relationship with Sense Bank and Etrecom’s relationship with Greatford are in no way connected. They merely demonstrate that the Kernel group of companies was closely linked, through economic ties, to the group of companies that included both Sense Bank and Greatford. This is precisely what demonstrates just how insidious such relationships can sometimes be, if one of the parties is able to draw on administrative resources.
Kernel did not register LPNs under any of its numerous companies, nor even under the publicly listed Luxembourg holding company, but under the Cypriot offshore company Etrecom. This offshore company is the financial heart of Kernel; it is through this company that the agricultural holding channels loans, dividends and other cash flows.
Nationalisation took place in July 2023. The Ukrainian government, represented by the Ministry of Finance, has become the new owner of Sense Bank. The Ministry of Finance has announced that it will not recognise the debts of the previous owners. In particular, it prohibited the bank from making payments to E.M.I.S. in respect of the LPN bonds.
However, this was of little significance to Kernel, as E.M.I.S. had undergone restructuring and promised to repay the bonds in 2029–30. All that was left to do was wait.
However, Kernel decided not to wait another three years, but to get the money back straight away. In their claim, the lawyers effectively stated that Sense Bank must pay Kernel 1.75 billion UAH – the hryvnia equivalent of $39 million at the current exchange rate.
It is interesting to note that Etrecom itself claims that there is apparently an LPN repurchase agreement, entered into between Etrecom and Greatford under English law. However, Etrecom failed to fulfil the aforementioned contract and is therefore fully aware that it has no cause of action in England. The court system in Ukraine is therefore an attempt to get round this shortcoming.
Formally, the claim has been brought against the same Cypriot offshore company Greatford, which was once affiliated with Sense Bank. However, all the funds held by this offshore company are frozen as part of criminal proceedings in Ukraine; in other words, they are inaccessible, whereas ‘Sense’ does have funds at its disposal. I think Kernel’s lawyers named the bank as a co-defendant precisely in order to get their hands on the money. Although the state-owned bank has absolutely nothing to do with this debt, it is being led to the gallows and may well be forced to pay.
And, as the icing on the cake, here’s another interesting fact. The recovery of funds from the bank is in no way linked to future LPN payments. The structure of the claims stated rightly raises the question of how the possibility of double compensation will be ruled out in the event of future payments under the LPNs. It cannot be ruled out that Etrecom is attempting to obtain funds twice: first, to recover funds from the bank through a tort claim, and then, at a later date, to receive further funds following the repayment of the LPNs by E.M.I.S.
The legal framework itself is extremely vulnerable. At the same time, it was presented as though it were entirely justified and in accordance with the law. In essence, Etrecom is seeking to use the mechanisms for the protection of infringed rights provided for under Ukrainian law to turn them against the State of Ukraine at this extremely difficult time for the country.
One would like to believe that the Ukrainian justice system will be able to establish the true legal nature of the legal relationship that arose between Etrecom and Greatford, to distinguish between artificially created torts and genuine obligations, and to prevent the financial burden of private investment from being shifted onto the shoulders of a nationalised banking institution
Next, I’ll talk about a few pitfalls in this matter.
Strange coincidences regarding the appointment of a judge
I have already mentioned that Kernel filed the same claim three times, and the case was ultimately assigned to Judge Svitlana Pogribna. It should be noted that she had previously ruled on cases involving companies within the Kernel Group. In recent years, Ms Pogribna has worked at the Commercial Court of Poltava Region, and was seconded to Kyiv for a period of one year to help optimise the court’s caseload.
Perhaps Kernel saw this secondment as a positive sign. If you follow the link, you will find several cases in which Judge Pogribna has already handed down rulings that could be interpreted as having been in the holding company’s favour.
Presumably, the holding company was so keen for her specifically to hear the case that it paid a hefty fee – around $50,000. Whenever the claim was refiled, Kernel paid the court fees. It won’t be able to get some of the money back.
Such extravagance suggests that Kernel may be expecting a much larger win. The question of why the case ultimately ended up before Judge Pogribna may be the subject of a further investigation by the High Council of Justice (HCJ).
In this very moment important to mention, that the public outcry and press attention to this process did not go unnoticed and led to certain consequences – the judge Pogribna was forced to recuse herself.
I understand Kernel’s logic perfectly. $39 million today is worth much more than $39 million in three years’ time. Receiving the money ahead of schedule will more than make up for all the costs. And if, by some miracle, they manage to hold on to the Loan Participation Notes (LPNs) and wait until 2029, they could receive their $39 million again, this time from E.M.I.S.
The very fact that Svitlana Pogribna had already ruled on legal proceedings involving Kernel should have been a ‘compelling’ reason for her recusal from hearing Kernel’s case. However, the judge is continuing to preside over the case. One explanation for this is that she herself considered the application for recusal, found nothing amiss, and ruled that the recusal was unfounded. Which, in itself, raises questions about her motives.
However, the colleague who considered the motion for her recusal supported Pogribna’s position and also rejected the motion.
From notary to judge
The career path of the judge presiding over this case is interesting in its own right. Svitlana Pogribna began her career as a private notary in Kharkiv. Her office was originally located in an industrial and residential area on Plekhanivska Street, but later she moved to the quiet historic centre, near Sumska Street, Teatralna Square and the former Peremohy Square. The area around her office on Gogol Street (later Skrypnyk Street) was home to the offices of numerous companies and a prestigious residential neighbourhood. Working as a notary in such a place was straightforward, prestigious and lucrative. In essence, it is a guarantee of a comfortable life for oneself and one’s family right through to old age.
I don’t know what prompted Ms Pogribna to give up such a golden opportunity and go into the judiciary. She made that decision in 2012, at the height of the Yanukovych era. It is clear that this appointment was not the result of backroom dealings, as she did not hear any politically significant cases. Proof: The Euromaidan took place shortly afterwards, but the lustration process did not affect Pogribna. She weathered the staff purges and integrity checks carried out by the new reformers just as smoothly, following the 2016 judicial reform.
In recent years, Ms Pogribna has worked as a judge at the Commercial Court of Poltava Oblast, even though all her assets were officially still registered in Kharkiv. It was whilst in Poltava that she upheld decisions which could be regarded as beneficial to ‘Kernel’.
An analysis of the [tax] declarations revealed nothing untoward. The judge has not managed to amass a large fortune; her property and car are extremely modest, and she also has a mortgage on the property. And yet, Pogribna’s biography is not without its flaws. In 2020, the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) received a report alleging that she had breached anti-corruption legislation. However, the case was not heard because, by the time the report was received, the limitation period within which the judge could have been held administratively liable had already expired. It is quite possible that someone carried out a procedural step, but at a time that was extremely favourable to Pogribna, in order to minimise the risks to her.
The question remains: Could Judge Pogribna be a convenient choice for ‘Kernel’ in this particular case? If so, what might her personal motivation have been there? In this regard, I would like to draw your attention to the following two points.
Firstly, Svitlana Pogribna is 61 years old. The age limit for a judge is 65, and she is already frequently on sick leave. Pogribna is due to return to work at the Commercial Court of Poltava Oblast shortly, after which she faces a few more years of routine work before retirement. Her possessions are modest. A judge’s pension is decent by Ukrainian standards, but following yet another devaluation and several years of inflation, the purchasing power of that money will be eroded.
The second point also relates to Svitlana Pogribna’s motivation. The thing is, her son – Oleg – is going through a difficult time at the moment. It cannot be ruled out that helping him might serve as a further incentive [for her] to side with one of the parties in the Kernel v Sense Bank case.
I am not suggesting that Judge Pogribna should automatically be suspected of corruption. On the contrary, the recent sentencing of the former President of the Supreme Court, Vsevolod Kniaziev, was intended to deter judges from deliberately ruling in favour of one of the parties.
Nevertheless, circumstances relating to the judge’s family situation may give rise to heightened public interest in the hearing of this case. Given the scale of the claim and the judge’s personal circumstances, the transparency of her actions in this case should be the subject of close scrutiny by the supervisory authorities.
The case of Oleg Pogribny
The register of decisions of the Qualification and Disciplinary Commission of Public Prosecutors contains Decision No. 180dp-26. The Commission decided to hold him accountable under disciplinary proceedings and to impose a disciplinary sanction in the form of dismissal from his post within the public prosecution service. The Commission adopted the decision on 1 April 2026, and the order imposing the disciplinary sanction is dated 5 May, as stated in the Register of Persons Who Have Committed Corruption or Corruption-Related Offences.
Prior to this decision, the son of Judge Svitlana Pogribna had held the post of prosecutor at the Luhansk Specialised Prosecutor’s Office for Defence in the Eastern Region since July 2024. Judging by the text of the decision, complaints against him were lodged simultaneously by several former colleagues. The case was heard over several months and ended in dismissal.
The document states that his actions bore the hallmarks of a criminal offence relating to corruption. The Specialised Prosecutor’s Office for Defence in the Eastern Region has established that he:
“demonstrated a lack of integrity in the course of his official duties, breached restrictions on personal contacts and relationships that could compromise the office of a prosecutor, and engaged in conduct that could give the impression of corruption; in particular, he entered into an off-duty relationship with one of the individuals involved in criminal proceedings No. (confidential information), with whom, during private conversations via the ‘Signal’ messaging app from 1 March 2025, he discussed and planned his assistance in the unlawful removal from military registration of draft-age persons liable for military service, as well as influencing officials at the territorial recruitment and social support centres (hereinafter referred to as ‘TRSSC officials’) with the aim of obtaining an unlawful benefit in return for their entry of false data into the Unified Electronic Register of Conscripts, Persons Liable for Military Service and Reservists ‘Oberig’ (hereinafter referred to as the ‘Oberig’ register)’.
If I have understood it correctly, Prosecutor Pogribny helped someone evade conscription by exploiting his position as a prosecutor. It would appear that he wasn’t doing it for free. According to the decision of the Qualification and Disciplinary Commission of Public Prosecutors, Oleg Pogribny’s actions were deemed to breach the restrictions on personal ties and to give the impression of corrupt practices.
It is possible that the Office of the Prosecutor General was referring to these very incidents when it carried out a secret integrity check on Prosecutor Pogribny in 2025. “According to the findings of the aforementioned investigation, O.I. Pogribny’s integrity has not been confirmed,” states the official statement from the OPG, which I have in my possession.
Oleg Pogribny appealed against the decision to impose disciplinary sanctions at the High Council of Justice, but from the outset this appeal had little chance of success. In his declarations of integrity as a prosecutor for the periods 2023–2024, 2024–2025 and 1 January 2025–19 March 2026, he stated that he had not engaged in any corrupt practices and had not used his position as a prosecutor for his own benefit or that of third parties. However, reality has proved otherwise. The trouble came from an unexpected source. Somewhere in the Lviv Region, investigators searched a car in which they found a smartphone containing correspondence.
The decision of the Qualification and Disciplinary Commission of Public Prosecutors refers to the same correspondence on ‘Signal’. This is the main piece of evidence on which the decision of the Qualification and Disciplinary Commission of Public Prosecutors was based.
Here is just one of the quotes: “Thus, during an examination of the mobile phone seized on 9 April 2025 from a Volkswagen Passat (registration number withheld – confidential information) used by PERSON 3, correspondence dated 1 March 2025 was discovered, in which O.I. Pogribny asked PERSON 3 to cancel the summonses issued to an unidentified person registered with the Saltiv Territorial Centre of Recruitment and Social Support (TCR and SS) in the city of Kharkiv. During this conversation, PERSON 3 informed O.I. Pogribny that such actions would require a payment of between 4,000 and 5,000 US dollars and that this could be arranged through the TCR and SS located in the city of Lviv. Subsequently, PERSON 3 sent further information to O.I. Pogribny, stating that a total of between 6,000 and 7,000 US dollars would be required to have the summons cancelled, the wanted notice withdrawn and the place of registration changed (photos Nos. 1–11)”.
Because of this case, the former prosecutor has already made the headlines for all the wrong reasons. He himself claims that there was nothing at all suspicious about the correspondence, although I personally didn’t see it that way. And it’s not just me that didn’t see it that way.
Just a few days ago, on 16 July, a meeting of the HCJ took place. The High Council of Justice considered Oleg Pogribny’s appeal, as well as his application to postpone the hearing. The former prosecutor argued that he had been called up for military service and was therefore unable to attend the hearing in person. That’s certainly true. The order for his dismissal from the Public Prosecutor’s Office is dated 5 May, and the day before (4 May) he joined the National Guard.
This argument has worked twice. The HCJ adjourned the hearing of the Pogribny case on 18 June and 2 July 2026. However, on this occasion, the HCJ refused to adjourn the session or suspend the proceedings, taking the view that the matter could be considered in his absence. The Council also noted that the former prosecutor is not in a combat zone, and this does not prevent him from taking part in the hearing; in view of this, the suspension of the consideration of his appeal is unfounded. The meeting was attended by representatives of the General Inspectorate of the Office of the Prosecutor General, the Qualification and Disciplinary Commission of Public Prosecutors and the Specialised Prosecutor’s Office for Defence in the Eastern Region – representatives from all levels of the prosecutorial hierarchy who were involved in the decision to dismiss Pogribny.
Those present at the meeting examined the case file and upheld the decision of the Qualification and Disciplinary Commission of Public Prosecutors. Oleg Pogribny is still considered to have been dismissed on the grounds of “conduct that brings the office of prosecutor into disrepute and may cast doubt on his objectivity, impartiality and independence, as well as on the honesty and integrity of the prosecution service; and systematic (on two or more occasions within a single year) breaches of the rules of prosecutorial ethics”.
What’s more: As stated by Mr Pogribny’s lawyer and the prosecutors present, a criminal case has been opened in relation to the facts that have come to light, and is being investigated by the State Bureau of Investigations. For the time being, this is a case based on the facts under Part 2 of Article 369 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, concerning the exertion of influence on a public authority; the former prosecutor appears in the case as a witness. I’m no expert, but I imagine that as the case progresses, Pogribny’s status may change from that of a witness to that of a suspect. In that case, a combination of offences under the Criminal Code may apply, specifically abuse of influence (if he exerted pressure on TCR staff in the interests of third parties), receiving an unlawful benefit (if he received money in return) and aiding and abetting evasion of mobilisation.
Yes, there is a statute of limitations on prosecution under these sections, and this offers a chance to avoid punishment – just as in the case of Judge Pogribna. I suspect that the former prosecutor’s service in the National Guard may have been an attempt to drag out the proceedings in order to buy time.
So, we have a proven fact: the son of Judge Svitlana Pogribna was dismissed from the prosecution service for unacceptable behaviour that brings the office of prosecutor into disrepute. The decision withstood the appeal.
What does this mean in the context of the Kernel v Sense Bank case? There is certainly no direct link, but questions arise regarding Judge Svitlana Pogribna’s motives.
Any mother would want to help her son sort out his problems, even if he’s in the wrong. Dismissal from the Public Prosecutor’s Office means the end of one’s career and, almost certainly, the impossibility of returning to the service in the future. For its part, the criminal case looks set to have even bleaker prospects. The situation is critical, and Oleg Pogribny could do with some help to ensure that the civil case never turns into a criminal case against him. I think this situation presents a serious temptation for Judge Svitlana Pogribna to consider, at the end of her judicial career, the possibility of handing down a decision in favour of Kernel that is not in the public interest. I repeat, this is merely a reasonable assumption, but it calls for reasonable caution.
Possible collusion with the bank
I cannot overlook another important aspect.
The incredible audacity with which Kernel is taking the state to court may be explained by a traditional Ukrainian phenomenon – an agreement between the agricultural holding and the top managers of Sense Bank. I don’t usually doubt the integrity of officials at state-owned banks. However, the Mindich case has added a new dimension to the picture of the leadership of the nationalised Sense Bank, in particular that of Oleksiy Stupak, Chairman of the Management Board, and Mykola Hladyshenko, Chairman of the Supervisory Board. I wrote that a whole series of systemic irregularities had been uncovered in the bank’s operations, which can be attributed to deliberate actions on the part of management. So far, these breaches have had no consequences for the management of ‘Sense’, but this will not last forever.
I suspect there may have been an agreement between Kernel and the senior management of Sense Bank. For example, to ensure that the bank loses the case and pays 1.75 billion hryvnias to the agricultural oligarchic group.
To reiterate, this is not an accusation or a suspicion in the legal sense. This is an assumption based on my many years’ experience as a financial journalist. I have come across similar cases on more than one occasion. Usually, this is how it went. A state-owned company or agency has been locked in fierce legal battles, for example, with an oligarch’s company. But at the crucial moment, either the documents turned out not to be in order, or the representative of the state-owned company failed to appear in court, or the lawyers did not show sufficient resolve during the hearing – and the case was lost.
It was the bank’s strange stance that led me to suspect a possible conspiracy. It is reflected in two aspects.
Firstly, the bank’s lawyers are vigorously contesting Kernel’s claim and are preparing documents to support the state’s position. However, ‘Sense’ strangely ignores the fact that the case is being heard by Judge Svitlana Pogribna. It is precisely her involvement in the case that should have caused the state-owned bank the greatest concern.
To reiterate, whilst serving as a judge at the Commercial Court of Poltava Region, she repeatedly handed down rulings that could be regarded as favourable to the Kernel Group’s business interests. The claim itself, for 1.75 billion hryvnias, coincided, surprisingly, with her annual business trip to the Kyiv Commercial Court. The judicial ‘merry-go-round’ went round three times before the case ended up in Pogribna’s hands. It would seem to be highly telling, and the lawyers at ‘Sense’ should have sought the judge’s recusal on the basis of a number of circumstantial indications. But they ignored this opportunity, thereby calling the entire outcome of the case into question.
Secondly, the bank has made no public mention of the 1.75 billion hryvnia claim. But this is by no means a technical legal process.
We must be fully aware that one of Ukraine’s three largest agricultural groups is attempting to extract money from a state-owned bank in a case to which the bank has no connection. In cases such as these, public engagement is often far more important than legal action. A united stance by the state could halt such a lawsuit within an hour, and even turn the situation around in the public interest.
However, so far I am the only one writing about this process. The bank, the Ministry of Finance, the National Bank and the Office of the President have not issued any statement regarding Kernel’s lawsuit. It is possible that this silence can be explained by the bank’s management’s stance. They are obliged to sound the alarm and knock on the right doors, but they are not doing so. And this is where I believe a conspiracy is a possibility, as one of many scenarios, and the lack of an active public stance on the part of Sense Bank and the Ministry of Finance regarding this lawsuit may give rise to public debate and calls for a response from the state authorities.
It appears, therefore, that the prospects of the case being decided in Kernel’s favour are increasing sharply, whilst a victory for the agro-oligarchic group in court is highly undesirable for the state-owned bank and for Ukraine as a whole. Not only will it cost the state budget 1.75 billion hryvnias, but it will also set a precedent for all holders of LPN bonds to take legal action against Sense Bank. And this represents a potential risk amounting to many billions of hryvnias. This will have an impact on Ukraine’s budget and its commitments to the IMF and the EU (the programme focuses on risk mitigation and the privatisation, rather than the recapitalisation, of state-owned banks).
The mere fact that this claim was being discussed publicly would have spared ‘Sense’ many surprises. In fact, the claimant’s position in this case is contentious, and it is impossible to win it without outside ‘help’. Even if the court rules in its favour, Kernel stands to lose its reputation. And if the case is won at first instance, it will almost certainly go to the Supreme Court, where, following the Kniaziev case, the chances of recovering 1.75 billion hryvnias from the state are slim. But all this would only apply in the event of public disclosure, which has not yet taken place.
I apologise in advance should my hypothesis prove to be incorrect, and should the senior management of the state-owned Sense Bank be making a sincere effort to rule out the very possibility of the recovery of 1.75 billion UAH, to which it has absolutely no connection. But a single action is worth a thousand words. I hope that, in the near future, ‘Sense’ and the Ukrainian government will launch a public campaign to make the recovery of $39 million impossible.
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Nifty can rally to 28,615 by this December in Axis’ bull case scenario. Here’s why
With Nifty earnings expected to sustain a 13%+ CAGR over FY23–28, this backdrop could attract fresh capital inflows into Indian markets and support a re-rating of valuations, strengthening the equity outlook.
In a base case scenario, Axis maintains the Nifty target at 27,220 for December, while remaining constructive on Indian equities, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, sustained government capital expenditure, GST 2.0 reforms and an improving corporate earnings cycle. The brokerage has based the target on 19.5x December 2027E earnings.
The brokerage expects Nifty earnings to grow at 13% CAGR over FY23–FY28, led by financials, underpinning healthy medium-term market returns, and notes that geopolitical tensions, crude oil volatility and currency movements may create near-term volatility.
Axis Direct recommends investors maintain good liquidity (10-15%) to use any dips in a phased manner, amid market volatility, and build a position in companies where the earnings visibility is quite high, with an investment horizon of 12-18 months.
While extreme volatility has subsided as per India VIX, the market is not entirely out of the woods. Intermittent spikes may persist, especially given ongoing global uncertainties.
The near term outlook for the Indian economy and corporate earnings may witness increased volatility, driven by commodity price movements, global risk aversion, and foreign fund flows.However, the medium-to-long-term outlook remains constructive, supported by domestic demand resilience, improving earnings visibility, and structural reforms.
Axis values Nifty at 16.5x in a bear case scenario, implying a target of 23,030 in December this year.
While valuations may remain above average amid potential policy shifts under the Trump regime, persistent inflation in developed markets and historically elevated interest rates increase downside risks.
Uncertainty around currency movements, oil prices, and global trade is likely to weigh on export-driven growth in 2026. Additionally, concerns over global growth, exacerbated by tariffs and geopolitical tensions, could compress market multiples in the near term.
Elevated Valuations
The Nifty is currently trading slightly above its long-term average valuation multiples (18.4x) and continues to command a premium over most emerging markets. The premium is supported by superior earnings growth, stronger corporate governance, macroeconomic stability and favourable demographic trends. However, elevated valuations imply that future market appreciation will increasingly depend on earnings upgrades rather than multiple expansion.
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Going forward, market performance is likely to be driven increasingly by sustained earnings growth, healthy free cash flow generation, improving ROCE and balance-sheet strength, rather than further valuation expansion. Companies that can navigate cost pressures while maintaining growth and generating consistent cash flows are likely to emerge as key outperformers through FY27. Axis continues to favour a bottom-up approach, with greater emphasis on quality growth companies having sustainable business models, pricing power, strong earnings visibility and execution capabilities.
In this environment, Axis Direct has maintained an overweight stance on BFSI, Telecom, Capital goods, Healthcare, Auto, Power & Energy, but it remains cautious on IT in the medium term, led by AI disruption.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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Dhierin-Perkash Bechai is an aerospace, defense and airline analyst.
Dhierin runs the investing group The Aerospace Forum, whose goal is to discover investment opportunities in the aerospace, defense and airline industry. With a background in aerospace engineering, he provides analysis of a complex industry with significant growth prospects, and offers context to developments as they occur, describing how they might affect investment theses. His investing ideas are driven by data informed analysis. The investing group also provides direct access to data analytics monitors.
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Ireland’s online betting market has rarely been busier. A World Cup summer has pushed sports betting turnover to seasonal highs, while the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) continues to roll out the country’s first dedicated licensing regime in decades.
The result is a market in which sportsbooks are competing harder than ever for Irish customers, on odds, mobile apps and payout speed rather than marketing spend alone.
That competition has changed how punters choose where to bet. Instead of defaulting to the most familiar high-street name, a growing share of customers now compare Irish betting sites on the measures that matter over a full season: the depth of GAA and horse racing markets, everyday odds value, withdrawal times and how well a bet slip holds up on a phone. Independent comparison platforms such as Topend Sports now test operators with real deposits before ranking them, a sign of how much more discerning the Irish bettor has become.
A newly regulated market takes shape
The backdrop to all of this is the Gambling Regulation Act 2024, the most significant overhaul of Irish gambling law in almost seventy years. The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland, established in March 2025, is phasing in a licensing framework covering betting, gaming and lotteries, alongside consumer protections that include a ban on gambling with credit cards and a National Gambling Exclusion Register.
For operators, the message is straightforward: the era of light-touch oversight is ending. Sportsbooks that want a long-term future in the Irish market are investing in compliance, safer-gambling tools and identity verification, while bettors are being encouraged to check an operator’s licence position before depositing. Brands that appear on the Revenue Commissioners register, and in time on the GRAI’s own register, offer dispute-resolution and self-exclusion protections that offshore operators cannot match.
What separates the best betting sites in Ireland this year
Irish bettors have priorities that set the market apart from its British neighbour. GAA coverage is the clearest test: the sportsbooks earning strong reviews in 2026 price the All-Ireland championships well beyond the match result, into handicaps and scorer markets. The horse racing calendar, from Punchestown to the Galway Races, demands proper each-way terms and best-odds-style concessions, while football remains the biggest driver of turnover, with League of Ireland depth increasingly treated as a mark of an operator that takes the local market seriously.
The way people bet has shifted too. Most wagers are now placed on a phone, so app stability and mobile bet slips carry real commercial weight, and the credit card ban has pushed payments towards debit cards, Revolut and e-wallets. Free bets still headline most sign-up offers, but reviewers consistently advise that everyday odds value beats a one-off promotion over the course of a season. In short, the best betting sites Ireland has to offer in 2026 are winning on product quality rather than promotional noise.
Why the shake-up matters beyond the bookmakers
The Irish experience carries lessons well beyond gambling. The operators gaining ground are, notably, those that treated compliance as a product feature rather than a cost centre. That will sound familiar to UK business owners: a recent government survey on regulation found 96 per cent of firms believe regulators create unnecessary problems, yet in Ireland’s betting market clear rules appear to be rewarding the best-prepared companies rather than holding them back.
Advertising and affiliate marketing are adjusting in parallel. The GRAI has signalled tighter restrictions on gambling promotion, including a broadcast watershed, and comparison publishers are responding with more prominent licence disclosures and responsible gambling signposting. With licensing costs likely to thin the field, analysts expect some consolidation among smaller brands, leaving a market where competition is fought on odds, market depth and payout speed. For Irish bettors, the practical advice from reviewers is consistent: judge a sportsbook on its everyday product and its licence position, not the size of its welcome offer.
Business
Disney weighs free, ad-supported streaming, says Super Bowl ads sold out
Rita Ferro at Disney Upfront 2026.
Courtesy: Disney Co.
Disney could soon make a bigger play into advertising.
During an earnings call with investors on Wednesday, CEO Josh D’Amaro said the company is exploring a free, ad-supported streaming product for consumers.
“We see it as a way to expand our reach to a customer segment that’s more price-sensitive, and expanding our reach … is one of our strategic priorities,” D’Amaro said.
He added that unlike many of Disney’s ad-supported competitors, the company has more ad inventory that “would actually help us accelerate our ad revenue growth.”
“A free offering could help us drive top of funnel Disney+ subscriber growth,” D’Amaro said, though he fell short of making any official announcements. Business Insider earlier reported that Disney was considering a free offering.
Free, ad-supported streaming services like Fox Corp.’s Tubi, Paramount Skydance’s Pluto TV and Roku’s The Roku Channel have been garnering more viewers as the cost of streaming has risen across various services.
Cheaper, ad-supported plans for major streaming players like Netflix and Disney+ have also become increasingly important to attract more customers and boost profitability.
Advertising for live sports and streaming has remained strong, even in a more competitive environment.
Disney also announced Wednesday that it has sold out ad spots for the upcoming Super Bowl, which will air on the company’s ABC and ESPN networks in February.
The Super Bowl has long beckoned the highest ad rates of any live TV programming. This year 30-second spots have reportedly been sold for $9 million.
Read more about media and advertising
Disney CFO Hugh Johnston told investors on Wednesday that Disney was “pleased” with commitments from its recent Upfront negotiations and noted volume commitments were up double-digits compared to last year.
He added other marquee live events, such as the College Football National Championship, the Grammys and Oscars helped to drive ad sales.
“Overall, the current tone I would have is to characterize the market is healthy in sports,” Johnston said on Wednesday’s call, “but at the same time, competitive in streaming, especially given the growth of supply in the marketplace.”
Johnston added the increased streaming supply has led to pricing pressure for ads. Disney reported in Wednesday’s quarterly earnings that lower ad rates weighed on revenue for its overall entertainment unit.
Business
What happened to the internet?
Faced with a barrage of ads, misinformation, AI slop, toxicity and doom-scrolling, it can feel like the internet is kind of… broken. Is it? And what are the alternatives?
Business
Hecla Mining Shares Rise as Silver Producer Posts Debt-Free Balance Sheet and Record Output This Quarter
Shares of Hecla Mining Company rose Wednesday to $16.80, up 9.16%, extending gains following the company’s second-quarter results released Tuesday, which showed the largest silver producer in the United States and Canada achieving a debt-free balance sheet alongside record production at one of its key operations.
The Coeur d’Alene, Idaho-based miner reported cash flow from continuing operations up 61% year over year to $175 million, while free cash flow more than doubled from the prior year to $136 million, results the company described as reflecting the strongest balance sheet in its history.
Record Production at Lucky Friday
Hecla’s Lucky Friday mine set a new quarterly production record during the period, contributing to consolidated silver output from continuing operations that rose to 4.2 million ounces for the quarter. Greens Creek, the company’s flagship low-cost operation located near Juneau, Alaska, continued to deliver strong production, while the company’s Keno Hill operation in Canada’s Yukon territory posted its fourth consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow, a milestone the company said demonstrated the mine’s underlying profitability at current throughput rates and silver prices.
Despite the strong operational performance, Hecla’s overall revenue for the quarter came in at $334 million, representing an expected pullback from a record prior quarter, primarily reflecting lower realized silver and gold prices during the period. Income from continuing operations totaled $118 million, or 18 cents per share, down from $165 million, or 25 cents per share, in the first quarter, while adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations fell 25% sequentially to $199 million but remained more than double the $93 million posted in the same period a year earlier.
Debt-Free for the First Time in Years
A central highlight of Hecla’s results was the redemption of its remaining $263 million in 7.25% senior notes, a move that leaves the company debt-free, excluding financial leases, for the first time in its recent history. That redemption followed the earlier closing of the sale of Hecla’s Casa Berardi operation, which the company said sharpened its focus on its core silver business while also enabling the earlier redemption of a separate tranche of senior notes in April.
Hecla ended the quarter with a cash position of $483 million, alongside an undrawn $225 million revolving credit facility, giving the company substantial financial flexibility as it continues investing in its operating mines and exploration programs. The company also declared cash dividends on both its common and preferred stock, with a common stock dividend of $0.00375 per share payable to shareholders of record as of Aug. 26, alongside a larger preferred stock dividend tied to a mid-September record date.
Exploration Fuels Long-Term Optimism
Beyond its quarterly financial results, Hecla has continued reporting strong exploration and definition drilling results across several of its key properties, including extensions of high-grade mineralization at Keno Hill and the discovery of new high-grade veins at its Midas property. The company has said these results support its broader district-scale growth strategy, with additional drilling recently initiated at its Hollister property and further exploration planned at Aurora in the coming weeks.
Rob Krcmarov, Hecla’s president and chief executive officer, addressed the company’s strengthened financial position in a statement following the company’s first-quarter results earlier this year, saying the results demonstrated the strength of the platform Hecla has built, and specifically pointed to the Casa Berardi sale and subsequent debt redemption as leaving the company with the strongest balance sheet in its recent history.
A Cautious Note From Analysts
Not all analyst commentary surrounding Hecla has been uniformly bullish. Scotiabank recently trimmed its price target on the stock to $21 from $25, citing more cautious expectations for gold prices heading into 2027, even as the firm maintained a relatively more constructive stance on the outlook for silver pricing specifically. A separate non-binding memorandum of understanding with NVRO Metals, under which Hecla would process 35,000 tonnes of tailings, drew a modest premarket pullback in the stock at the time of its announcement, reflecting some investor concern about execution risk associated with the arrangement despite its potential long-term strategic upside.
Guidance for the Remainder of the Year
For the full year 2026, Hecla has maintained its consolidated silver production guidance in a range of 15.1 million to 16.5 million ounces, alongside consolidated gold production guidance of 65,000 to 72,000 ounces. The company’s shares had traded down as much as 20.9% year to date prior to this week’s rally, reflecting a period of broader caution across the metals sector even as the company’s underlying operational and financial performance has continued to strengthen.
With its balance sheet now debt-free and cash reserves continuing to build, Hecla’s near-term focus is expected to center on the completion of its surface cooling project at Lucky Friday, tracking toward completion by mid-2026, along with continued ramp-up efforts at Keno Hill following recent weather-related production disruptions tied to reduced power availability in the Yukon.
Business
AMD: Likely Priced For Perfection
AMD: Likely Priced For Perfection
Business
(VIDEO) Kansas Mother of Four Recovering After Suspected Spider Bite Causes Severe Liver Complications
WICHITA, Kan. — A Kansas mother of four is continuing her recovery at home after a suspected spider bite during a Memorial Day weekend campfire triggered a cascade of medical complications that left her fighting for her life, including surgery, dangerous infections and a diagnosis of end-stage liver failure that doctors warned could be fatal.
Britagne Miller, of Goddard, a small city roughly 14 miles west of Wichita, said she was sitting around a campfire with her husband, Jake, and their four children at Cheney Lake on May 28 when several spiders crawled onto her and bit her multiple times, according to local outlets KAKE and FOX Kansas. At the time, none of the bites seemed cause for immediate concern.
A Bite That Kept Getting Worse
Four days later, the situation changed. The area surrounding one bite on Miller’s calf began to swell and grow increasingly painful, prompting her to seek medical care. Describing the sensation to KAKE, Miller said the bite kept swelling and swelling, comparing the feeling to a hot metal fire poker shooting down her leg into her foot, as though she were being stabbed.
Miller was admitted to Wesley Hospital in Wichita on June 4, where doctors performed surgery to address the wound. According to a GoFundMe campaign created by her husband and reporting from KAKE, surgeons removed nearly 300 milliliters of blood clots from the affected area and inserted a drain to help the wound heal.
Complications Multiply
Miller’s treatment quickly grew more complicated. Following the surgery, the wound became infected with both a staph infection and a separate gram-negative bacterial infection, according to KAKE. Her situation was further complicated by preexisting health conditions, including blood-clotting disorders first diagnosed during a previous pregnancy, along with an already compromised liver and allergies to certain medications that limited her treatment options.
As her condition worsened, doctors determined that Miller was suffering from end-stage liver failure and warned her family that her condition could ultimately prove fatal, according to KAKE. Doctors reportedly gave her a prognosis ranging from just days to as little as a month to live. Miller was placed in both medical and cardiac intensive care during the most critical stretch of her hospitalization.
Despite the grim outlook, Miller made the decision to continue pursuing treatment rather than enter hospice care. Recalling the moment she absorbed the severity of her diagnosis, Miller told KAKE that her first thought was that she was done, before her focus immediately shifted to her husband and children. She has said she remembers little from her time in intensive care, a period she described as largely a blur given the severity of her condition.
A Long Road to Recovery
Miller spent roughly 10 days in intensive care before being discharged from the hospital on July 11, bringing her total hospitalization to approximately 44 days. She is now continuing her recovery at home, though her medical journey is far from over. According to her family, Miller now requires ongoing home health care, physical therapy to help her relearn how to walk on her injured leg, and regular visits with specialists in the months ahead.
Perhaps most significantly, Miller still needs a liver transplant, but she is not yet eligible to be placed on a transplant waiting list. Doctors have said her blood clotting levels and other lab values must first stabilize before that process can move forward, leaving her family in a continued state of uncertainty even as she has moved past the most immediate danger.
An Unconfirmed but Suspected Culprit
Despite the severity of Miller’s reaction, doctors have not definitively confirmed which species of spider was responsible for the bite. Based on the appearance of the wound and the region in which the incident occurred, medical staff believe it is consistent with a bite from a brown recluse spider, according to Miller and reporting from KAKE.
Dr. Raymond Cloyd, a horticultural entomologist at Kansas State University, told KAKE that the brown recluse and the black widow are the two venomous spider species most commonly found in Kansas. According to the Cleveland Clinic, brown recluse spiders are typically not aggressive toward humans, and their bite is usually painless at the moment it occurs. In most cases, a bite produces only a red, itchy reaction that resolves without serious complications. However, if left untreated, a brown recluse bite can progress to bruising, blistering, an open sore and lasting scarring. In rare and severe cases, symptoms can include rash, fever, dizziness, vomiting and chills, alongside more serious systemic effects, particularly in individuals with preexisting health vulnerabilities such as compromised organ function or clotting disorders, conditions that closely mirror those Miller was already managing before the bite occurred.
Practical Precautions
For those looking to avoid similar encounters, Cloyd advised sealing cracks and gaps around homes and outdoor structures, and exercising caution when handling boxes, shoes and other items that have gone undisturbed for extended periods, common hiding spots for spiders such as the brown recluse.
A Family Leaning on Community Support
As Miller continues her recovery, her family has turned to a GoFundMe campaign to help offset the costs associated with her extended hospitalization and ongoing medical needs. In an update shared through the campaign, the family expressed hope for better days ahead, writing that although there remains a long road ahead, they are holding on to hope that this season will eventually be behind them and that Miller will be able to return fully to the roles she cherishes most, being a mother now, and someday a grandmother.
Fox News Digital reported it was unable to immediately reach the Miller family for additional comment. As Miller works toward eligibility for a liver transplant, her case has drawn renewed attention to the potential severity of spider bites, particularly for individuals with underlying health conditions that can complicate what might otherwise be a minor, self-resolving injury for most healthy people.
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