As investors enter June with hopes of seasonal strength, technical indicators are flashing warning signs that could challenge historical market trends. While June has traditionally been a positive month for Indian equities, the current geopolitical backdrop and weakening chart patterns suggest that volatility may remain elevated in the weeks ahead.

Speaking to ET Now, Rupak De, Sr Tech Analyst, LKP Securities highlighted that although June has generally delivered gains for the Nifty over the last decade, the market’s current setup appears less encouraging.

According to De, the last three Junes have ended in positive territory, and most June performances over the past 10 years have generated gains, with average returns of around 1.5%. However, he noted that historical patterns also show that after every three positive Junes, the market has often witnessed a negative June.

“So, the last three Junes have been positive if we look at the last 10 years’ data. Overall, the performance of June has been positive in most cases, but the overall return has been around 1.5%. And if we look at the overall 10-year trend, after every three positive Junes, there has been a negative June. So, I expect the market to remain volatile. Maybe this time June may be weak, and Nifty might give a negative return in June.”

Consolidation Breakdown Raises Near-Term Concerns

Beyond seasonal trends, De pointed to fresh technical weakness that emerged at the start of the month. He observed that the Nifty has broken below a rising trendline on the daily chart, a development that typically signals weakening momentum and increases the risk of further downside.
The breakdown, coupled with prevailing geopolitical uncertainties, has contributed to a cautious outlook for the benchmark index.
“When we are starting June, we have negative data. Today, Nifty has given a consolidation breakdown and has fallen below a rising trendline on the daily time frame. The sentiment looks bearish for the short term, and I expect the bearish sentiment to continue in the next few weeks as well.”
Key Levels to Watch on Nifty
From a technical perspective, De identified important support and resistance zones that traders should closely monitor.

According to him, Nifty has immediate support around the 23,250 mark. A breach of this level could open the door for a deeper correction towards 22,700. On the upside, the 24,000 level remains a significant hurdle that needs to be crossed before sentiment improves materially.

“On the lower end, Nifty has support at 23,250. Below that, it might correct further towards 22,700. So overall, sentiment looks bearish. On the higher end, resistance is there at 24,000. Till the time it remains below 24,000, bearish sentiment might prevail in the market.”

Bank Nifty Also Showing Signs of Weakness
The cautious outlook is not limited to the broader market. De believes the banking index is also displaying technical weakness after failing to sustain above a key moving average resistance level.

Bank Nifty encountered resistance near its 50-day exponential moving average during the week and eventually closed below that level, reinforcing the bearish undertone.

“Next week, I expect overall bearishness. If we consider Bank Nifty, Bank Nifty is looking a bit bearish. During this week, it faced resistance around the 50-day exponential moving average, and it closed below it. The near-term sentiment for the banking index is also looking a bit bearish.”

Critical Support and Resistance for Bank Nifty
For Bank Nifty, De sees 53,000 as a crucial support level. Any sustained move below this mark could trigger additional downside pressure. On the upside, 54,700 remains a strong resistance zone that traders should keep an eye on.

“On the lower end, we have support at 53,000, and below that it might correct further. Whereas on the higher end, we have a very good resistance at 54,700. Till the time Bank Nifty remains below 54,700, sentiment is likely to remain bearish for Bank Nifty.”

Outlook
While historical seasonality has generally favored bulls during June, technical indicators currently suggest a more cautious approach. With Nifty and Bank Nifty both trading below important resistance levels and broader uncertainty weighing on sentiment, market participants may need to brace for heightened volatility and the possibility of a weaker-than-usual June performance.