Inflation dropped to 2.8 per cent in the year to April, latest ONS figures have revealed
Inflation fell slightly compared to the previous month’s figure as Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Budget policies held back an anticipated surge in price growth. The Office for National Statistics revealed the consumer price index (CPI) reading came in at 2.8 per cent, below what City forecasters had predicted.
The price growth data for the year to April was measured against a previous inflation reading of 3.3 per cent in the year to March.
Both of the last two readings have exceeded initial expectations as a consequence of the Iran war, where disruption across the Strait of Hormuz has triggered an energy price shock and threatened critical supply shortages.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy, stood at 2.5 per cent, as reported by City AM.
The services inflation rate came in at 3.2 per cent, which may ease concerns among some Bank of England policymakers, as the figure is regarded as a key indicator of underlying price pressures.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, said she anticipated prices would climb as “food costs feed through”, with the ONS reporting a 7.7 per cent rise in prices for raw materials over the year.
“Firms are likely to seek to protect margins by passing on some of these higher costs to consumers,” Selfin said.
“However, weak domestic demand is likely to limit firms’ ability to pass on higher input costs in full, reducing the risk of a broader pickup in inflation.”
Economists believe inflation will “hover” around the three per cent mark until July.
The latest figures may offer Reeves some justification that her Budget policies have helped to ease price pressures.
Responding to the data, she said: “The war in Iran is not our war but one we will need to respond to, and the decisions I took in the Budget last year have kept inflation down as we deal with global instability.
“We have the right economic plan, and to change course now would risk our economic stability and leave working people worse off.”
The central policy involved removing the renewable obligation subsidy from household energy bills and transferring them to general taxation, resulting in a £117 reduction on Ofgem’s energy price cap for April.
Reeves also financed a freeze on train fares and prescription charges in a bid to tackle the cost of living.
However, inflation is anticipated to deteriorate further in the coming months, with the Bank of England cautioning that the CPI figure could surpass six per cent within months in the worst case scenario where the US and Iran fail to re-open the Strait in peace negotiations.
Economists are concerned that second-round factors – whereby robust wage growth and escalating price rises fuel a spiralling effect – could trigger a surge in inflation, after the economic phenomenon was underestimated following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Traders and prominent economists also believe the UK is especially vulnerable to the energy price shock, given its position as a net importer of oil and gas.
The latest batch of figures could offer Reeves and fellow Labour ministers a brief reprieve from the mounting political turbulence engulfing the party.
The Chancellor is expected to set out a full energy support package, which is understood to include scrapping a planned fuel duty rise in September.
On Tuesday evening, reports emerged that Reeves was seeking to broker a deal with supermarkets whereby prices on essential food items would be capped in return for a suspension of packaging and health regulations.
The proposal has faced a backlash from leading City economists, while a retail boss has cautioned that it could prove damaging to businesses.
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said: “Any fall in inflation is welcome, but prices are still rising far too fast and Labour have left our economy weak and exposed to the impacts of the Iran war.
“The recent spike in borrowing costs shows markets are increasingly worried about Labour’s leadership chaos and economic mismanagement, leaving families to pick up the bill for a £300 Burnham Penalty.”







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