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Wall Street Brunch: U.S.-China Summit In Spotlight (NYSEARCA:SPY)
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Download this episode on Apple Podcasts/Spotify or listen below:
Trump and Xi meet with trade, tariffs and AI on deck. (0:13) Trump pitches an AI Force while Google reveals Gemini breach. (1:07) Costco earnings put valuation in focus. (2:03)
The following is an abridged transcript:
This week, President Donald Trump will host Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House, with trade, tariffs, Taiwan and AI expected to feature prominently in the talks.
Bilateral meetings are due ahead of the big meeting Thursday, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng today in New York.
Investors will also be watching for possible announcements on Chinese purchases of U.S. goods, including Boeing (BA) aircraft, and flows of rare-earth magnets from China.
SA analyst Damir Tokic says the failure to make a deal to extend the rare-earth export ban truce “could trigger a major geopolitical escalation.”
But with oil sales to China and U.S. tech exports also on the table, a deal “would have to settle the war in Russia, the war in Iran, the AI race,” not to mention the original trade war, he said.
AI dominated the news this weekend, with President Donald Trump posting that he intends to create an AI Force with an AI Czar to protect an industry that he says will one day make up 25% of U.S. GDP.
He says the AI Force will “not in any way hinder or stifle” growth and will use the current criminal and civil justice systems to handle any “bad” aspects.
While he stressed again that fears of an AI takeover are a “hoax,” Trump also canvassed for an AI rebrand to Superior, Extreme or Supreme Intelligence.
Meanwhile, Google (GOOG) confirmed that its Gemini model gained unauthorized access to three companies in May during a review of its cybersecurity capabilities, the first known incident of the company’s AI system autonomously engaging in such an act.
Gemini accessed outside systems by guessing login information or using credentials found publicly, assuming the systems were part of the test. But in all three cases, the model stopped short of doing anything further after entry.
On the earnings front the calendar is still very sparse.
Costco’s (COST) report Thursday will likely garner the most attention.
Seeking Alpha Head of Quant Steve Cress says he always leans toward a positive Hold for Costco.
Looking at price-earnings/growth, “even the PEG is freaking expensive. It’s got a D (Quant grade) for PEG, it’s at a 76% premium. So it really is a rich and expensive stock. But, there is a growth element to it,” Cress said on Wall Street Breakfast Friday.
“I’m just not sure the valuation framework is worth it.”
And you can hear more from him every morning around market open with Rena Sherbill on TikTok, X and YouTube @cresstopstocks.
Looking to the rest of the earnings calendar:
AutoZone (AZO) and KB Home (KBH) report Tuesday.
Cracker Barrel (CBRL), General Mills (GIS) and Paychex (PAYX) weigh in on Wednesday.
BlackBerry (BB) joins Costco on Thursday.
Among other corporate happenings this week, investors will be looking for more statements from media companies, especially CNN owner Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and MS NOW owner Versant (VSNT), after CNN, MS NOW and Politico journalists were prevented from accessing White House grounds over the weekend amid Trump’s ban of the outlets.
All three outlets, along with others like AP and the New York Times, have decried the action as violating the First Amendment.
SpaceX (SPCX) will make up 2.82% of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) after rebalancing on Monday, up from its current weighting of roughly 1.28%, according to Bloomberg.
And McDonald’s (MCD) holds an investor day Wednesday.
And for income investors, Broadcom (AVGO) and Meta (META) go ex-dividend on Monday. Broadcom pays out on Sept. 30 and Meta on Sept. 28.
Seagate (STX) goes ex-dividend on Thursday, paying out on Oct. 7.
Medtronic (MDT) goes ex-dividend on Friday with an Oct. 16 payout date.
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Fidelity Capital & Income Fund Q2 2026 Commentary
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Main Street Capital Went Public at $15 a Share. $10,000 Invested Then Now Collects About $177 a Month in Regular Dividends.
Main Street Capital (NYSE: MAIN) completed its initial public offering on Oct. 4, 2007, at $15 per share. If you invested $10,000 into the business development company (BDC) stock at its IPO, you’d have purchased around 667 shares. Those shares would now generate around $177 per month in regular dividend income alone at the current rate of $0.265 per share. You’d also currently collect another $200 each quarter in supplemental dividends at the current $0.30 per share rate.
Here’s a look at Main Street Capital’s impressive dividend track record.
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An income-producing machine
As a BDC, Main Street Capital must distribute 90% of its taxable income to shareholders each year to remain compliant with IRS regulations. It has a unique strategy to meet that obligation while also providing income investors with the stability they desire. It has set its monthly dividend at a level it can sustain throughout market cycles. Main Street Capital currently generates enough distributable net investment income to cover its regular monthly dividend by a comfortable 1.39 times. The BDC pays supplemental quarterly dividends to return excess taxable income to shareholders and remain compliant.
Main Street Capital has grown its monthly dividend by 141% since its IPO. It has paid a cumulative $42.465 per share in regular monthly dividends during that period, and an additional $8.74 per share in supplemental dividends. It has never suspended or reduced its regular dividend, though it has at times stopped paying supplemental dividends.
What’s driving the dividend growth?
Main Street Capital stands out from other BDCs for its growth. The company has grown its net asset value (NAV) per share from $12.85 at its IPO to $33.92 at the end of the second quarter, 164% total growth (5.4% compound annual growth rate). One of the keys to its success is its dual investment strategy of investing in the secured debt of smaller private companies with meaningful equity participation. The company’s equity investments provide upside.
For example, this past June, Main Street announced the exit of a portfolio investment. Its initial investment consisted of a $2.4 million revolving line of credit, a $12.2 million first-lien senior secured loan, and a $5.8 million direct equity investment. It subsequently completed seven follow-on investments, growing its total debt and equity investments to $42.3 million and $6.4 million, respectively. The BDC recently realized a $46.4 million gain on its equity investment in this portfolio holding, which had also generated $2.2 million in cumulative dividend income. Gains like these have supported its growing NAV per share while providing the BDC with additional capital to reinvest to grow its portfolio. That portfolio growth has helped support its rising dividend.
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Diesel at $6.48 per gallon pushes truck drivers to spend $3,500 a week on fuel, forcing some to quit
It’s safe to say that truck drivers around the country are feeling the impact of record-breaking diesel prices.
As of Sept. 19, diesel stood at $6.48 per gallon nationwide, according to AAA. And per GasBuddy, the highest prices can be found in Washington, Hawaii and California, the latter which has seen diesel top $8 per gallon.
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Diesel is needed to fuel trucks that transport food to your local supermarket, vehicles to out-of-state dealerships and your latest retail purchase to a local distribution center, plus much more. The American Trucking Associations estimates that trucks moved 73% of the nation’s freight by total weight in 2024.
However, high diesel prices — thanks in part to geopolitical conflicts like the U.S.-Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine War — can strain the supply chain and increase operating costs for logistics companies and freight operators. Ultimately, the prices consumers pay for goods also go up.
Some owner-operators are calling it quits
While the entire trucking industry is feeling the pinch, it’s possible that owner operators — drivers with their own trucks in business for themselves — are feeling it the most.
One owner operator, Yahathan, told WALB 10 News that he has cut down on loads because of the distances he has to travel. Owner-operators like himself have had to be extra careful about managing fuel spending of late.
“I feel that diesel for truck drivers, you know, it shouldn’t go up at a high rate because we make the world go ’round,” he said.
Vatissa Rhodes, whose weekly fuel bill has nearly doubled, said in an interview with ABC affiliate KATU 2 that she is contemplating selling her truck and working for someone else.
“I’m actually already looking to drive for another company to park my truck,” she said. “My paycheck has been cut maybe about a third.”
On cross-country trips, Rhodes would spend anywhere from $1,700 to $2,000 a week on fuel. Now, it’s at least $3,500, she told the outlet. She has been running her own business for six years, as a means to grow her savings and reinvest in her company. But the venture has instead landed her in debt, with each year being more difficult than the last.
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Northern Small Cap Value Fund Q2 2026 Commentary
Northern Trust Asset Management is a global investment manager that helps investors navigate changing market environments in efforts to realize their long-term objectives.
Entrusted with $1.2 trillion in assets under management as of March 31, 2024, we understand that investing ultimately serves a greater purpose and believe investors should be compensated for the risks they take — in all market environments and any investment strategy. That’s why we combine robust capital markets research, expert portfolio construction and comprehensive risk management in an effort to craft innovative and efficient solutions that seek to deliver targeted investment outcomes.
As engaged contributors to our communities, we consider it a great privilege to serve our investors and our communities with integrity, respect and transparency.
Northern Trust Asset Management is composed of Northern Trust Investments, Inc., Northern Trust Global Investments Limited, Northern Trust Fund Managers (Ireland) Limited, Northern Trust Global Investments Japan, K.K., NT Global Advisors, Inc., 50 South Capital Advisors, LLC, Northern Trust Asset Management Australia Pty Ltd, and investment personnel of The Northern Trust Company of Hong Kong Limited and The Northern Trust Company. Note: This account is not managed or monitored by Northern Trust Asset Management, and any messages sent via Seeking Alpha will not receive a response. For inquiries or communication, please use Northern Trust Asset Management’s official channels.
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PGIM Government Income Fund Q2 2026 Commentary
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