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Why the next Bitcoin cycle will be won by investors who understand liquidity

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Why the next Bitcoin cycle will be won by investors who understand liquidity
There was a time when a single tweet could move Bitcoin by 10%. When a celebrity endorsement sent token prices through the roof overnight. When “to the moon” counted as an investment thesis for millions of retail crypto investors around the world.

Today, that market has been replaced by more serious, more structural, and more interesting market participants. The next Bitcoin rally will not be driven by narrative. It will be driven by liquidity. And if you don’t understand how liquidity moves, you will keep misreading every crypto cycle that follows.

What the Numbers Are Telling Us

Over the past eight months, more than $10 billion has moved out of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and that exodus has been a major driver of the downturn we’re witnessing. In 2024, inflows into those same ETFs powered Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Institutional capital pulled back, the pillar supporting the rally faded, and retail investors simply did not have the conviction to hold the market up on their own.

Spot ETFs now hold 6-7% of circulating supply, which means every billion dollars of net flow ripples directly into spot prices and through the rest of the crypto market.

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How the Market Grew Up

The 2021 bull run was the last great hype-driven market. Retail FOMO, social media momentum, and speculative excess pushed Bitcoin to its then all-time high. Then came the unravelling of Luna, Celsius, and FTX. Each collapse eroded the casual investor’s willingness to act on hype without scrutiny.

At the same time, the market’s composition changed underneath it. The SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 brought institutional capital into the space through regulated vehicles. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust alone commands approximately $43 billion in assets under management as of June 2026.


These are investors who allocate based on macro conditions, rate environments, and portfolio construction frameworks with a long-term view, the same forces that move equity and bond markets.

Liquidity Is the Variable That Matters Now

Empirical research shows a significant strengthening in the relationship between global M2 money supply growth and Bitcoin price appreciation, with roughly a 90-day lag and correlation coefficients reaching 0.78 during the 2020-2023 period.
Put simply, when global liquidity expands, Bitcoin goes up. When it contracts, Bitcoin comes under pressure. That three-month lag means the direction of global money supply today is a leading indicator of where Bitcoin is headed next quarter, whether you’re watching for it or not.
Stronger-than-expected inflation readings and elevated bond yields have complicated the picture for Federal Reserve policy. Persistent energy price pressures and geopolitical instability now have investors worried that rate cuts could be delayed, and that makes for a less supportive environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.

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What the On-Chain Data Is Actually Saying

Here is where it gets interesting. Beneath the price weakness, the network is telling us a different story altogether. CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Network Activity Index has climbed steadily since January and recently hit its highest level since late 2024. Daily Bitcoin transactions have crossed 800,000, nearing the highs of the previous bull cycle.

Even the selling pressure from ETF redemptions has not triggered a rush of coins onto exchanges for liquidation, which tells you that some of these outflows are internal portfolio rebalancing, not investors walking away from Bitcoin.

What the Next Rally Needs

Any rotation back into growth positioning would likely pull Bitcoin along with it, re-anchoring the asset to the liquidity backdrop. An ETF flow reversal would provide direct support to prices.

Watch for a softening in Fed language, easing inflation data, and a resolution to the geopolitical tensions that have kept oil prices elevated and rate-cut expectations suppressed. Any one of these could meaningfully improve liquidity conditions, and when liquidity returns, Bitcoin has consistently been among the first assets to reflect it.

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The next leg of this cycle will not announce itself through celebrity endorsements or viral posts. It will show up quietly, in ETF flow data, in M2 expansion numbers, and in what the bond market is telling us about where rates are headed.

The investors who stand to benefit most from the next Bitcoin rally are the ones watching the Fed, tracking ETF flows, and understanding that Bitcoin’s price today is largely a function of how much capital the global financial system is willing to allocate to risk assets.

(The author Prateek Gupta is Head of Business, Mudrex)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Rivian Stock Soars on Target Price Hike. There’s Just One Problem.

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Rivian Stock Soars on Target Price Hike. There’s Just One Problem.

Rivian Stock Soars on Target Price Hike. There’s Just One Problem.

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BRP: Good Brands, Bad Tariff Hit

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BRP: Good Brands, Bad Tariff Hit

BRP: Good Brands, Bad Tariff Hit

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Electing Devon mayor could ‘unlock billions of pounds’ for county

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The council’s leader is hopeful Andy Burnham will devolve more power to the county if he becomes PM

View of Plymouth in the sunshine

View of Plymouth in the sunshine(Image: Jay Stone)

Electing a Devon mayor could unlock billions of pounds of local investment over the next decade, the leader of the county council has said. Julian Brazil (Liberal Democrats) said modelling indicated a mayoralty in Devon could attract up to £3bn of funding for key services and economic development.

The council leader is hopeful Devon could become one of the first new Mayoral Combined Authorities created under a future government after Labour leader hopeful Andy Burnham pledged to devolve more power to the regions and nations if he becomes Prime Minister.

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If the Devon does elect a mayor, it would become one of the largest mayoral authorities in England – and Mr Brazil believes it would drive economic growth, improve public services and secure long-term investment.

“Devon is ready to deliver a mayoralty at pace and with ambition,” he said. “We have the scale, the partnerships and the determination to unlock major economic growth for both our urban centres and rural communities.

“This is about bringing investment home to Devon – creating well-paid jobs, delivering homes for young people and ensuring our whole county can thrive.”

Julian Brazil, leader of Devon County Council

Julian Brazil, leader of Devon County Council(Image: Alison Stephenson, Radio Exe)

Existing mayoral areas, such as the West of England Combined Authority – covering Bristol, Bath and North East Somerset and South Gloucestershire – benefit from additional funding and greater control over transport, planning and economic development, allowing decisions to be tailored to local needs.

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Mr Brazil’s comments come just a week after he wrote to Labour leadership hopeful Andy Burnham setting out how Devon could quickly deliver a mayoralty in line with the former Greater Manchester mayor’s ambition to accelerate devolution and support “good growth in every British postcode”.

Devon County Council and Torbay Council already work together through the Devon and Torbay Combined County Authority, which was established to secure additional funding and powers. Mr Brazil said the partnership provided “a strong platform” for further devolution.

Last year, all eleven council leaders in Devon signed a joint letter supporting devolution, demonstrating broad political backing for greater local powers.

“Devolution must not stop at the big cities,” Mr Brazil said. “Too often, rural and coastal communities are overlooked in national policy. A Devon mayoralty would ensure our voices are heard at the very centre of government.”

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Billions in potential investment

According to Mr Brazil, a Devon mayoralty could unlock the billions of pounds over a decade through devolved funding and locally generated revenues, with additional private-sector investment potentially worth billions more.

Potential sources of funding include central government devolution settlements; retention of business rates growth; major transport and infrastructure programmes; new revenue-raising powers; public-private partnerships; inward investment; and strategic development initiatives.

Supporters say the funding streams would help deliver regeneration projects, transport improvements and wider economic development across the county.

“A Devon mayoralty would accelerate the delivery of affordable and council housing, unlock and coordinate growth across council boundaries,” added Mr Brazil.

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“It could also support the creation of Mayoral Development Corporations while balancing the needs of growing cities such as Plymouth and Exeter with those of rural communities.”

Last week, Burnham pledged to create a ‘No 10 North’ if he becomes Prime Minister, claiming it would help power flow into regions including the West Country.

In his first major policy speech since launching his leadership bid, the new MP for Makerfield said he would deliver the “biggest change in our lifetime to the way the country is run” while remaining “consistent” to Labour’s 2024 manifesto.

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Migration changes lack local flavour

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Migration changes lack local flavour

Regional bodies are concerned they could miss out amid a shift in workforce migration agreements.

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Perth Airport unveils new international terminal offering

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Perth Airport unveils new international terminal offering

A refreshed retail and hospitality precinct at Perth Airport’s main international terminal has reached completion, amid major works for the planned $5 billion expansion.

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Govt to sell up to 5.04% stake in Cochin Shipyard through OFS. Check details

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Govt to sell up to 5.04% stake in Cochin Shipyard through OFS. Check details
The government will sell up to 5.04% stake in Cochin Shipyard Ltd through an offer for sale, with the floor price fixed at Rs 1,400 per share. The offer will open for non-retail investors on July 7, while retail investors will be able to place bids on July 8.

The government will first sell 2.52% of Cochin Shipyard’s paid-up equity as the base offer. It has also kept an additional 2.52% stake as a green-shoe option, which can be exercised if the issue receives strong demand. This means the total stake sale can go up to 5.04%.

An offer for sale is a route through which promoters, including the government, can sell shares in a listed company through the stock exchange mechanism. In this case, the government is looking to reduce part of its holding in Cochin Shipyard while allowing institutional and retail investors to buy shares through the OFS window.

The floor price of Rs 1,400 per share is the minimum price at which investors can bid. The final allotment will depend on demand, bids received and the clearing price under the OFS process.

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Cochin Shipyard is one of India’s leading public sector shipbuilding and ship repair companies. The stock has been in focus over the past year due to strong investor interest in defence and shipbuilding companies. The broader sector has benefited from rising government spending on defence manufacturing, naval modernisation and Make in India-linked orders.


The OFS comes at a time when public sector defence and shipbuilding stocks have seen strong market interest. Investors will watch the discount or premium of the floor price compared with the market price, as that usually drives demand in such issues.
For non-retail investors, the bidding will take place first. Retail investors will get their separate window the next day. In many OFS issues, retail investors are also sometimes offered a discount, though the current announcement only mentions the floor price and the offer structure.The green-shoe option gives the government flexibility to sell a higher stake if demand is strong. If the OFS is fully subscribed along with the green-shoe portion, the government’s stake in Cochin Shipyard will come down by 5.04%.

The stake sale will also help the government move ahead with its disinvestment programme for FY27. While the offer does not involve any fresh issue of shares by Cochin Shipyard, it will increase the public float in the company if fully subscribed.

The market’s response will depend on the pricing, recent movement in the stock and investor appetite for defence-linked public sector companies. Given the strong rally in several PSU defence names, the Cochin Shipyard OFS is likely to be closely tracked by both institutional and retail investors.

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Microsoft to cut 4,800 jobs as AI reshapes work, says layoffs aren’t replacing employees

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Microsoft to cut 4,800 jobs as AI reshapes work, says layoffs aren't replacing employees

Microsoft said on Monday that it will eliminate roughly 4,800 jobs – or about 2.1% of its global workforce – as it restructures parts of the company to prioritize artificial intelligence investments and other long-term business goals.

The reductions will primarily affect Microsoft’s commercial and Xbox organizations, with additional changes planned across engineering teams as the company reshapes its operations to better serve customers and accelerate AI adoption. Microsoft has historically announced organizational changes near the close of its fiscal year as it sets spending plans for the year ahead.

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In a separate message to Xbox employees, Xbox head Asha Sharma described the move as “the most significant restructure in Xbox history,” saying the gaming division plans to eliminate about 3,200 positions during fiscal 2027, including roughly 1,600 roles effective Monday. Sharma said four game studios will transition to new ownership or management as part of the restructuring, which she said followed years of heavy investment in content, Game Pass and platform expansion that did not grow as quickly as the company had expected.

TOP TOBACCO COMPANY TO CUT THOUSANDS OF JOBS

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The reductions will primarily affect Microsoft’s commercial and Xbox organizations. (Cesc Maymo)

In a message to employees, Chief People Officer Amy Coleman said the restructuring is designed to better align Microsoft’s workforce and investments with a rapidly changing technology landscape, while emphasizing that the layoffs are not the result of AI directly replacing employees.

“I also want to be direct that the roles eliminated today are not being replaced by AI,” Coleman wrote. “At the same time, what is true is that AI is changing how work gets done.”

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JEFF BEZOS PREDICTS AI WILL CREATE A LABOR SHORTAGE, NOT REPLACE HUMAN WORKERS ACROSS THE ECONOMY

Coleman acknowledged that artificial intelligence is automating some workplace tasks, saying employees across the company will need to continue developing new skills as the technology transforms business operations.

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In a message to employees, Chief People Officer Amy Coleman emphasized that the layoffs are not the result of AI directly replacing employees. (iStock)

“Some of the tasks we do every day can now be automated,” she wrote. “We all need to keep learning, keep building new skills, and keep adapting as the work evolves.”

AMERICA CAN’T COMPETE WITH CHINA IN AI WITHOUT THESE WORKERS, META’S PRESIDENT SAYS

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Microsoft said it considered alternatives before implementing layoffs, including redeploying more than 4,000 employees into new roles over the past year and reassigning another 500 workers this month. Coleman also pointed to a voluntary retirement program and the transfer of four gaming studios to new ownership or management.

The layoffs come as Microsoft continues investing heavily in artificial intelligence, data centers and cloud infrastructure while integrating AI tools across its product lineup. The broader technology industry has also been reshaping workforces as companies increase spending on AI infrastructure while looking to manage costs, with Amazon and Meta among the firms that have announced job cuts this year.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
MSFT MICROSOFT CORP. 390.49 +6.21 +1.62%

Coleman suggested Monday’s announcement may not be the last round of organizational changes.

“We are still early on this journey, and there will be more changes ahead; other parts of our business will need to make similar changes,” she wrote.

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Microsoft said it will provide affected employees with financial support and career resources as they transition to new opportunities.

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GBP Money Markets: Bank of England Is Supporting Liquidity

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GBP Money Markets: Bank of England Is Supporting Liquidity

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Millennials, Gen Z upending baked food sales

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New preferences are shifting consumption patterns.

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Humber Growth Board meets for first time as mayors cite ‘untapped potential’

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The Humber Growth Board Joint Mayoral Committee held its first meeting in Hessle, with the mayors of Hull and East Yorkshire and Greater Lincolnshire outlining economic development and investment strategies across the four-council region

Hull and East Yorkshire mayor Luke Campbell

Hull and East Yorkshire mayor Luke Campbell(Image: Local Democracy Reporting Service)

The Mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire has said “there is so much untapped potential” in the Humber region. Luke Campbell ( Reform UK ) made the remark at the first-ever meeting of the Humber Growth Board Joint Mayoral Committee, in Hessle.

This brings together himself and Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, Dame Andrea Jenkyns (Reform UK), as the two Mayors representing north and south banks of the Humber and representatives from all four councils in the area to coordinate cross-Humber collaboration, especially on economic development. It has taken over a year since the two Mayors were first elected for the board to meet, which has been criticised by a former council leader.

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The board’s first meeting saw its terms of reference confirmed. The two Mayors will rotate chairing of it on an annual basis, with Mayor Campbell chairing it first.

Each mayor and combined authority outlined Local Growth Plans for their areas, which will guide economic development and investment priorities they will pursue in coming years. Hull and East Yorkshire’s sets out a ten-year framework, with development potential of Bridlington Bay and regeneration of Hull’s Western Docklands among identified major investment opportunities.

“There is so much untapped potential in this region and I think all of us working together can really unlock that potential,” said Mr Campbell, talking up the benefits of cross-Humber collaboration. “Everything you do see in that video is all possible,” he said referring to a Local Growth Plan video Hull and East Yorkshire Combined Authority (HEYCA) have produced. “But look, if it was easy, it would all be done by now, right?”

Greater Lincolnshire’s Local Growth Plan is due for adoption in September, so its current draft was presented. Greater Lincolnshire Combined County Authority’s (GLCCA) chief executive Lee Sirdifield led this, and highlighted sectors for focus will be agri-food, defence, port and logistics, and advanced manufacturing and energy.

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(Image: Getty Images)

While mentioning work with partners including Humber businesses on elements such as energy, he was interrupted by Dame Andrea: “You sneaked in a ‘decarbonisation’, didn’t you?” Mr Sirdifield confirmed it was in the draft.

“That didn’t run past me,” said Dame Andrea, lightly chastising. “That won’t be there in September,” she said to laughter from some in the room. The Greater Lincolnshire Mayor ran on an electoral platform that “Net zero policies are crippling Lincolnshire’s economy.”

The board also discussed Local Innovation Partnership Fund (LIPF) investment coming to the area. Greater Lincolnshire will get up to £20m to support particularly agri-tech and defence. HEYCA successfully jointly bid with Teesside for £30m, for clean energy and industrial research and development projects.

Mr Sirdifield noted each combined authority supported the other’s bid. “We worked to identify areas where we could each get some benefit, which I think is a real precedent to the relationship between the organisations.”

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The meeting ended with discussion of future agendas. It is now required to meet at least four times a year. North Lincolnshire Council leader Cllr Rob Waltham (Conservative) raised the prospect of further devolved powers to the combined authorities in future. “We’ve got to be getting ready for deal 2. It’s a conversation that we had at our combined authority yesterday. So we’re using this pan-Humber working to be preparing for what deal 2 looks like.”

In an interview with the LDRS prior to the board’s first meeting, former North East Lincolnshire Council leader Cllr Philip Jackson (Conservative) criticised the time taken for it to meet. He mentioned in the context of emphasising the importance of Humber collaboration and the economic role green energy plays in North East Lincolnshire. “It’s taken almost a year to get it constituted.

“That’s been a huge frustration because all the unitary authority leaders around the Humber have all been working together to try and get some sort of a growth board moving that could talk with a single voice to Government.”

“We’ve spent so much time with the Mayors wrangling over what that’s going to look like,” he said. He added the Labour Government had emphasised cross-Humber economic working as part of the devolution deals, and there is a power of Government devolution review “if they aren’t satisfied after three years”, noting a year has already passed. Both mayors were contacted for opportunity for comment via their respective combined authorities.

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