Hashdex said it will liquidate its eponymous spot-price Bitcoin exchange-traded fund this month, distributing the cash to all remaining shareholders and selling the fund’s roughly 225 BTC holdings.

In a filing on Monday, the fund issuer said the decision was made after evaluating factors including trading liquidity, operating costs and investor interest. The 200,000 shares, which have traded on NYSE ARCA under the DEFI ticker since March 2024, have net assets of $14.25 million, according to the fund’s website.

Late to the game, which saw the first of 10 other competing BTC ETFs debut months ahead of it, analysts saw opportunity at a time when BTC was trading for the then-all-time high of more than $73,000.

“The getting is so good right now I could see this one getting some bites (if the fee is competitive) despite being so late,” said Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas in a March 27, 2024 post.

Originally launched in 2022 as a Bitcoin futures ETF, Hashdex Bitcoin Futures ETF, its highest asset level was $17.54 million, reached on May 9, 2025, according to data tracker SoSoValue. The next largest ETF among the US-traded BTC issues is WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust (BTCW), with $140.37 million in net assets as of Friday’s market close.

Related: Bitcoin may find bear market bottom in August: 10x Research

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

What is behind the fall in the yen?

Strategy, the publicly traded Bitcoin holding company formerly known as MicroStrategy and led by chairman Michael Saylor, disclosed another sizable Bitcoin sale in an SEC filing. In the period from July 27 through Sunday, the company sold 1,638 BTC and used the proceeds to support capital-market obligations tied to its preferred stock financing structure.

According to the company’s Monday 8-K filing, the sale totaled $104.7 million at an average price of $63,957. Of that amount, $52.4 million was allocated to dividend payments on its STRC preferred stock, while $52.3 million funded STRC share repurchases.

Key takeaways

• Strategy sold 1,638 Bitcoin from July 27 through Sunday, generating $104.7 million, per an SEC 8-K.
• Dividend funding and STRC buybacks accounted for nearly all sale proceeds, underscoring how Bitcoin liquidity is being used to manage preferred-stock obligations.
• The company says it now holds 842,138 BTC, bought at an aggregate cost of $63.5 billion.
• Strategy also raised $290.6 million through MSTR share sales during the same period, increasing its US dollar reserve to $4 billion as of Sunday.
• STRC trades below its $100 target value—something investors may watch because it can affect the attractiveness and efficiency of future STRC fundraising.

Bitcoin sales feed dividends and STRC repurchases

In the latest disclosure, Strategy characterized the July 27-to-Sunday transaction as one of its larger BTC sales for the year. The company’s filing indicates this was its second-largest Bitcoin sale of 2024.

Crucially, the proceeds were not used for general corporate purposes. Instead, they were split between two items linked to STRC: dividend payments on the preferred stock and STRC repurchases. Together, those allocations amounted to just over $104.7 million, leaving little room for other uses from this tranche.

Strategy’s total Bitcoin balance after the sale stands at 842,138 BTC, with the company reporting an aggregate acquisition cost of $63.5 billion.

How this compares with earlier reported BTC sales

The latest sale follows other previously disclosed events that frame Strategy’s approach to managing its capital structure.

Earlier coverage noted that Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million on July 6. The company also disclosed that it sold 32 Bitcoin in early June—its first reported BTC sale since a 2022 tax-loss transaction.

While each sale reduces the company’s Bitcoin exposure, the repeated pattern of tying sale proceeds to STRC-related obligations suggests Strategy is treating Bitcoin liquidity as part of a broader financing and cash-management playbook rather than treating every sale as an isolated departure from its prior accumulation stance.

Cash buffer grows as USD reserve rises to $4 billion

Alongside the BTC sale disclosure, Strategy reported raising additional funds through MSTR share sales during the same period. According to the 8-K, it raised $290.6 million, with multiple allocations.

The filing states that $250 million of the MSTR proceeds was used to increase Strategy’s US dollar reserve, which stood at $4 billion as of Sunday. It also reports that $28.9 million funded STRC repurchases and $11.7 million was added to the company’s cash balance.

In a post on X on Monday, Michael Saylor said Strategy repurchased $81.2 million worth of STRC stock and extended its US dollar “runway” by 57 days to 2.3 years.

STRC trading below target and what that may imply

Strategy’s financing mechanism includes its perpetual preferred stock, STRC. Market data cited in the report suggests STRC was trading at $89.40 during Monday’s pre-market session, or about 10.6% below its $100 target value, according to Yahoo Finance data.

In the same period, the company’s common stock—MSTR—was indicated to have declined roughly 0.9% in pre-market trading, based on Yahoo Finance data referenced in the article.

Trading below STRC’s intended par has potential consequences for Strategy’s capital strategy. If STRC remains below target value, investors may view future fundraising through STRC sales as less efficient for Strategy—because selling preferred stock at a discount typically brings in fewer dollars per unit sold relative to the target. That, in turn, can increase the importance of the company’s dividend policy to attract buyers and provide support to STRC pricing.

Earlier comments from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju had urged Strategy to pause Bitcoin purchases and replenish cash reserves after dividend coverage deteriorated. In a June 24 X post, Ju said the company should “pause Bitcoin purchases, rebuild cash reserves, and adopt a systematic framework for purchase timing.” Earlier reporting in the same context noted that dividend coverage had fallen to 14 months from seven years.

Strategy has previously responded to these concerns by laying out a framework for capital allocation. A June 29 8-K filing described a capital framework allowing Bitcoin sales to fund dividends, raised the annual dividend rate on STRC preferred stock to 12%, and disclosed that the US dollar reserve had grown to $2.55 billion.

What investors should watch next is whether the new $4 billion USD reserve and the disclosed approach—using Bitcoin sales to service STRC dividends and repurchases—continues alongside STRC trading conditions, particularly how far STRC remains below target and whether Strategy’s dividend and preferred-stock buyback activity accelerates or slows in subsequent filings.

Hashdex will close and liquidate its US-listed Bitcoin ETF, DEFI, after the fund struggled to attract enough assets and trading activity to remain viable.

DEFI will stop trading on Aug. 17

According to a WSJ report, asset management company Hashdex said the Hashdex Bitcoin ETF, which trades on NYSE Arca under the DEFI ticker, will stop trading after the market closes on Aug. 17. The company will then begin liquidating the fund’s assets and delist its shares.

The fund will also stop accepting creation orders from authorized participants after that date. Investors can continue buying and selling shares through their brokers until the final trading session, although market prices may differ from the fund’s net asset value as the closure approaches.

Hashdex attributed the decision to several factors, including the fund’s asset base, trading liquidity, operating expenses and investor demand. DEFI managed about $14.7 million as of July 30, placing it among the smaller US spot Bitcoin products.

The fund’s website listed a net asset value of $71.32 per share and a closing price of $71.15 as of July 31. DEFI normally invests at least 95% of its assets in spot Bitcoin, with the remainder available for cash, cash equivalents, and CME-listed Bitcoin futures.

Shareholders will receive cash after liquidation

Investors who continue holding DEFI shares after the final trading day will not receive Bitcoin. Instead, the fund will sell its holdings and distribute the remaining proceeds in cash after deducting its liabilities and liquidation costs.

Hashdex expects to make the distribution around Aug. 28. The amount shareholders receive will depend partly on Bitcoin’s price while the portfolio is being liquidated, meaning the final payment may differ from DEFI’s net asset value before trading ends.

The liquidation could also create tax consequences for US investors. A cash distribution may be treated as a taxable disposal, depending on the shareholder’s cost basis, account type and individual circumstances.

Investors who sell their shares before Aug. 17 will receive the prevailing market price rather than the final liquidation value. Trading volume and the spread between bid and ask prices could become more important as the fund approaches delisting.

Hashdex faced heavy competition from larger Bitcoin ETFs

DEFI entered the US spot Bitcoin ETF market through a conversion of an existing futures-based product. The fund began holding spot Bitcoin in March 2024, more than two months after the SEC approved the first wave of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.

That timing placed DEFI behind larger competitors that had already accumulated substantial assets and trading volume. Its relatively small asset base made it harder to compete on liquidity, despite charging a 0.25% expense ratio.

The closure does not signal Hashdex’s exit from the US crypto ETF market. Its separate Hashdex Nasdaq CME Crypto Index ETF, trading under NCIQ, held about $206.82 million in net assets as of July 31.

NCIQ currently provides market-cap-weighted exposure to Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Cardano, Chainlink, Stellar and Bitcoin Cash. Bitcoin represented 78% of its portfolio as of July 27, while Ethereum accounted for 12.2%.

Hashdex also reduced NCIQ’s annual management fee from 0.50% to 0.25% in March. The fund was renamed from the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF in January but retained its existing ticker.

DEFI investors face three remaining dates

DEFI shareholders now face a short liquidation timeline. Aug. 17 will be the final day to sell shares on NYSE Arca and the cutoff for new creation orders. Hashdex will then unwind the portfolio before making the expected cash payment around Aug. 28.

Bitcoin price changes during that period will affect the fund’s remaining assets and, in turn, its final distribution. Investors who retain their shares through liquidation should also expect the position to disappear from their brokerage accounts once the cash payment is processed.

The closure applies only to DEFI and does not affect NCIQ or Hashdex’s other crypto investment products.

South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb said Monday it plans to apply for a preliminary listing review in 2027 and complete an initial public offering in 2028.

Bithumb said it has reorganized its business structure, including spinning off Bithumb Asset, to clarify responsibilities across its business units and reduce potential conflicts of interest ahead of the listing review.

The exchange said its preparations will include upgrading internal controls and shifting from domestic accounting standards to K-IFRS, the international accounting framework used by listed companies in South Korea.

Bithumb said the timetable could change depending on market conditions and the review schedules of relevant authorities.

The exchange is one of five South Korean platforms that support fiat currency trading through real-name bank accounts, offered through its partnership with KB Kookmin Bank.

Bithumb’s listing push comes as rival South Korean exchanges deepen their ties with traditional finance and technology groups. Mirae Asset Consulting took control of rival exchange Korbit on July 23, while Upbit operator Dunamu is pursuing a share-swap deal that would make it a wholly owned subsidiary of Naver Financial, subject to regulatory and shareholder approval.

Related: Kiwoom eyes Bithumb stake as Korean brokerages push into crypto: Report

Bithumb’s 620,000 BTC crediting error

In a February promotional error, Bithumb mistakenly credited customer accounts with balances totaling 620,000 Bitcoin instead of distributing 620,000 Korean won in cash rewards. Bithumb recovered 99.7% of the erroneous credits, though customers sold about 1,788 BTC before accounts were frozen.

At a Feb. 11 National Assembly parliamentary hearing, Bithumb CEO Lee Jae-won said the exchange’s process for checking the planned distribution against its actual holdings had failed and that the promotional amount had not been earmarked in a separate account.

Its IPO preparations also come as two Bithumb-linked listed companies face continuing audit and listing problems. Vidente, a major Bithumb shareholder, and Bucket Studio, which indirectly controls Vidente, have had trading in their shares suspended since March 2023 over audit and other listing issues.

According to Yonhap news agency, Bucket Studio appointed a former police official as its standing auditor in June, while Vidente plans to appoint a former National Tax Service official to the same role. South Korea’s Government Public Service Ethics Committee cleared both hires after finding no close relationship between the officials’ previous duties and their new roles.

Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures

Bitmine Immersion Technologies added 10,399 ETH to its treasury and repurchased another 4.5 million shares, but BMNR stock fell toward $17 as investors weighed its mounting unrealized losses.

Bitmine’s Ethereum holdings approach 5.8 million ETH

Bitmine said it acquired another 10,399 ETH over the past week, continuing the accumulation strategy it adopted last year. The purchase increased its total holdings to 5,797,813 ETH, equivalent to approximately 4.8% of Ethereum’s circulating supply.

The latest purchase followed Bitmine’s acquisition of 9,946 ETH during the previous week. Together, the transactions added more than 20,000 ETH to the company’s treasury within two weeks.

Chairman Tom Lee linked the continued accumulation to Ethereum’s recent performance against US technology stocks. He said ETH outperformed the Nasdaq 100 by 25% during July, its widest margin since July 2025.

“This is the largest outperformance since July 2025, and we believe it is reflective of the strengthening fundamentals of crypto.”

Lee noted that ETH climbed from $2,375 in July 2025 to $4,057 by the end of the following month. However, past performance does not guarantee that Ethereum or BMNR will repeat that move.

Bitmine has maintained its accumulation strategy despite the broader crypto downturn and the paper losses attached to its holdings. DropsTab estimates that the company has an unrealized loss of approximately $8.8 billion on its Ethereum position.

Staked ETH could generate $247 million annually

Bitmine has also placed most of its Ethereum treasury into staking. The company reported 4,917,189 ETH staked, representing nearly 85% of its total holdings.

At the stated valuation, the staked position is worth about $9.2 billion. Bitmine projects that it could generate approximately $247 million in annualized staking revenue.

Staking provides the company with ETH-denominated income while it holds the asset on its balance sheet. However, that revenue may fluctuate with Ethereum’s staking yield, validator performance and the market value of ETH.

The strategy also means BMNR investors are exposed to several overlapping risks. These include Ethereum price volatility, the company’s cost basis, dilution from capital raises and operational risks associated with staking such a large position.

For US investors, BMNR offers equity-market exposure to Ethereum without requiring direct token custody. Unlike a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund, however, the stock also carries corporate management, financing and capital-allocation risks.

BMNR buyback enters its third consecutive week

Bitmine repurchased 4.5 million common shares during the past week, marking the third straight week of purchases under its buyback program.

The company has now bought back more than 16 million shares. Management said it considers BMNR attractively valued relative to its assets and long-term Ethereum strategy.

Share repurchases reduce the number of outstanding shares when they are retired, potentially increasing each remaining shareholder’s proportional claim on the company. Their impact depends on the price paid, the source of the funds, and whether new stock issuance offsets the reduction.

Lee argued that periods of strong monthly ETH performance against the Invesco QQQ Trust have historically been followed by BMNR outperforming Ethereum during the next month. That relationship remains a company observation rather than a guarantee of future returns.

The buyback may provide some support for BMNR, but investors have yet to respond positively to the latest Ethereum purchase and repurchase announcement.

BMNR stock struggles with resistance near $17.15

BMNR traded near $17.06 on Aug. 3, falling about 1.3% on the daily chart. The stock recorded an intraday high of $17.23 and a low of $16.63.

BMNR price is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $17.15, which is acting as the immediate resistance level. A daily close above that mark could allow BMNR to challenge $18.49, corresponding to the 50% retracement level.

The next resistance sits at $19.82. A stronger recovery beyond that level could bring $21.48 into focus, although the stock would need greater momentum and trading volume to sustain such a move.

BMNR remains above an ascending trendline drawn from its June low near $12.81. That structure suggests the short-term recovery has not failed, but the stock has struggled to build momentum above $17.

Aroon readings of 64.29% and 21.43% favor the recent recovery attempt. However, the average directional index stands at 18.04, below the commonly watched 20 threshold, indicating that the prevailing trend remains weak.

A rejection at $17.15 could send BMNR back toward the rising trendline around $16. Stronger support sits at the 78.6% Fibonacci level of $15.24. A decisive break below that area would weaken the recovery structure and increase the risk of another test of $12.81.

Bitcoin begins the first full week of August trading around the $63,000 area as traders look past a difficult macro calendar and focus on a fresh, ongoing catalyst from within the crypto ecosystem. Sentiment is being tested by the fallout from a Coldcard wallet hack, while broader markets await key US data and geopolitical signals that can swing risk assets.

At the same time, investors are weighing whether August will follow the bearish script that has marked prior cycles. Even with July ending higher, analysts point to technical resistance and liquidation zones that could amplify downside if momentum fades.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin is hovering near $63,000 as traders digest the continuing Coldcard hardware wallet incident and its effects on flows.
• Crypto market participants say US nonfarm payrolls—due Thursday—may drive volatility depending on how labor strength and unemployment evolve.
• Oil prices slid after President Donald Trump signaled potential movement on an Iran-related deal, adding to macro uncertainty for risk assets.
• Long-term holder behavior appears consistent with accumulation, even as near-term traders warn that resistance could keep August pressured.
• CoinGlass and other technical observers highlight the 50-month EMA around $65,827 as a key barrier, while derivatives positioning points to liquidation risk near $64,200.

Why Treasury and FX policy still matters to crypto

The week’s macro backdrop is shaped not only by upcoming US economic releases, but also by renewed attention to how dollar liquidity and Treasury market stress can spill into global financial conditions. According to QCP Capital, the US and Japan executed a rare coordinated foreign-exchange intervention last week, designed to support the yen after it neared levels around 164 per USD, based on TradingView data.

QCP Capital emphasized that the operation’s mechanics matter: the New York Fed acted as a fiscal agent using the Federal Reserve’s Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) repo facility, rather than reflecting a Federal Reserve monetary-policy decision. In QCP’s view, that distinction highlights how institutions outside the FOMC can still move liquidity and influence broader conditions.

Further, industry commentary cited a desire to reduce the risk of Japan selling large quantities of US Treasuries, which could otherwise disrupt the dollar environment. Louise Loo of Oxford Economics told CNBC that volatile conditions tied to potentially fiscally aggressive policies in Japan could extend into US Treasury markets, destabilizing the dollar.

In a post on X, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also argued the FIMA facility could be used again, describing it as an “important backstop” and encouraging that it be “upsized” in coming months. For crypto traders, the practical takeaway is that interventions affecting FX and Treasury-market liquidity can quickly shift risk appetite—often before any direct crypto-specific news lands.

US payrolls, oil, and the Iran signal: the risk-asset checklist

For digital-asset markets, the next major swing factor is Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls release. Earlier in this cycle, weaker-than-expected labor numbers put pressure on expectations for how aggressively the Federal Reserve might move on rates, a dynamic that coincided with a reaction in Bitcoin when June payroll data came in well below forecasts, as Cointelegraph previously reported.

Market positioning for Thursday remains mixed. Continuum Economics, for example, expects July nonfarm payrolls to rise by 120k overall (and 110k in the private sector), while also projecting unemployment will edge up to 4.3% from 4.2%. The firm’s forecast also notes average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% in line with its trend, according to its published preview.

Beyond labor data, traders are monitoring signals related to US-Iran de-escalation. On Sunday, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he had agreed to cancel further strikes on Iranian territory “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL,” adding language about potential opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Oil responded quickly, with both WTI and Brent down by more than 8% on Monday.

For crypto markets, the relevance of oil is straightforward: sustained moves in energy prices often feed into inflation expectations and, by extension, interest-rate expectations. When the path of rates is uncertain, risk assets—including Bitcoin—tend to trade with sharper sensitivity to macro surprises.

Coldcard hack: exchange inflows rise, but not in an outsized way

On the crypto side, one of the most immediate concerns remains the Coldcard wallet hack. Earlier coverage cited a “low-entropy bug” in Coldcard hardware wallets, with theft activity continuing for multiple days. Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn advised Coldcard users to move funds “ASAP” and suggested using higher transaction fees to reduce the time spent interacting with the wallets.

Yet exchange flow data suggests the reaction is not turning into a broad, panic-driven transfer into trading venues. According to CryptoQuant, net exchange inflows were 34,932 BTC on Friday and 8,768 BTC on Sunday. CryptoQuant’s data framing indicates the inflow volume, while meaningful on certain days, aligns with typical levels seen during the month rather than representing a one-off liquidation wave.

What did change more noticeably was the number of inbound transactions. CryptoQuant data shows exchanges received 31,217 inbound BTC transactions on Friday, dropping to 19,537 on Sunday. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno attributed the influx mainly to transactions between 1 and 10 BTC, which he said had their highest daily total since early February.

Separately, CryptoQuant reported that on a rolling 30-day basis Bitcoin long-term holders remain in a broad accumulation phase. In its analysis, the BTC LTH Accumulation & Distribution indicator showed LTH supply inflow around 220.4K BTC, implying ongoing inflow into long-term holdings outweighs distribution back to the market.

That combination—exchange activity rising in transaction count, but long-term holders still accumulating—suggests the market is processing the incident through behavior that is more nuanced than a simple rush to sell.

August caution: resistance levels and leverage-built downside

Even as Bitcoin finished July about 7.4% higher, traders are preparing for a difficult August. CoinGlass data shows monthly performance for BTC/USD came in slightly below its 2025 result, but the broader narrative remains that downside pressure can return during August, consistent with patterns some analysts associate with prior midterm-era behavior.

Rekt Capital pointed to the 50-month exponential moving average as an ongoing ceiling, stating on X that the 50-month EMA continues to act as resistance. That level is near $65,827, and the expectation is that repeated rejections could set up further downside continuation.

Derivatives positioning adds another layer of near-term risk. CoinGlass data tracking clusters of high-leverage BTC bets highlighted $64,200 as a potential area where forced liquidations could occur if price moves higher against leveraged positions.

On the other end of the spectrum, quant analyst David Eng described Bitcoin as “sitting on its long-term statistical floor” around $63,000, referencing a power law framework that expects price to grow as a power of time. While such models do not guarantee short-term price direction, they help explain why some participants remain willing to accumulate near specific long-horizon reference points.

With long-term holders accumulating quietly while near-term technicals and leverage maps warn of friction, the next macro prints and any follow-through from the Coldcard incident will likely determine whether August breaks from prior weakness—or extends it.

Traders should watch Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls for cues on rates and risk appetite, while also tracking whether Coldcard-related wallet activity continues to translate into exchange selling or stays contained to transaction-level spikes; the answer could shape how quickly Bitcoin sheds or absorbs this month’s technical pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the first full week of August circling $63,000 as traders weigh the impact of the ongoing Coldcard wallet hack.

Key points:

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent leverages a Federal Reserve repo facility for a joint intervention as the Japanese briefly recovers from forty-year lows against the dollar
• Oil prices fall sharply as president Donald Trump gives hope of a deal with Iran.
• Bitcoin rounds out July 7.4% higher, but warnings of a red August stay in place.

Bessent eyes further yen interventions

Concerns over US Treasury markets were behind the US decision to intervene in the Japanese yen last week. Washington engaged in a rare operation to support the yen after  USD/ JPY had reached almost 164 last week, per data from TradingView.

USD/JPY one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“It was the first coordinated US–Japan foreign-exchange intervention since 2011 and the first joint operation specifically supporting the yen since 1998,” crypto trading company QCP Capital noted in analysis released on Monday. 

“The distinction matters. The New York Fed acted as the Treasury’s fiscal agent rather than as an independent monetary-policy decision by the Federal Reserve. The operation therefore highlights how institutions outside the FOMC can also influence currencies, liquidity and broader financial conditions.”

Speaking to mainstream media, industry insiders placed emphasis on the desire to avoid Japan selling large amounts of US Treasuries. The use of the Fed’s Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) repo facility, which allows a handful of foreign central banks to access dollar liquidity without selling Treasuries, supports the theory.

“There is a self-preservation element here. Volatile markets driven by potentially fiscally-aggressive policies from Japan could extend to the U.S. Treasury markets, destabilizing the dollar,” Louise Loo, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, told CNBC.

In a post on X, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued that FIMA could make further appearances going forward.

“Friday’s coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements. Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at MOF and BOJ. We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention. The FIMA Repo Facility is an important backstop. We would encourage it to be upsized in the coming months,” he wrote. 

Oil dives as Trump teases hope of Iran deal

US nonfarm payrolls data is the main point of interest for crypto and risk asset traders this week. Due on Thursday, the numbers will shed light on the strength of the labor market as recent US inflation prints have delivered mixed signals.

Last month, nonfarm payrolls came in far lower than expected. Only 57,000 jobs were added in June, short of the 114,000 anticipated, while the previous two months’ numbers were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs. Bitcoin jumped on the news, because weaker labor-market conditions put pressure on the Federal Reserve to soften its stance on rate hikes. 

Some market participants expect a rebound in July’s payrolls data. However, macro research firm Continuum Economics simultaneously projects an uptick in unemployment.

“We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June decline, and an in line with trend 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings,” it forecast last week. 

US civilian unemployment rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Macroeconomic data prints form just one locus of potential risk-asset volatility as markets look for cues for a lasting ceasefire between the US and Iran.

In a post on Truth Social on Sunday, US president Donald Trump revealed a delay to further strikes on Iranian territory, with a potential deal on the table.

“This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s  nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL,” he wrote.

Oil prices fell immediately as the week began, with WTI and Brent crude both down more than 8% on Monday.

Stocks face tough seasonality into US Midterms

US stocks face seasonal friction between now and October, in the run-up to the US Midterm elections, analysis from trading resource Mosaic Asset Company warns.

The S&P 500 finished July down 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index saw its worst July losses since 2006 at -3.2%. 

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic, flagged seasonal changes as a major hurdle for equities beginning this month.

“Based on multiple lookback periods, seasonality becomes a much stronger headwind over the next couple months,” it wrote, with data indicating that it could take until the start of Q4 for the situation to improve.

S&P 500 average monthly returns. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

US equities failed to mount a meaningful comeback into the monthly close, even as Asia markets rebounded from a major sell-off centered around semiconductor stocks. Missed earnings and concerns over debt obligations fueled a $620 billion wipeout over just two days. This comes as combined 2026 capex guidance from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta is now tracking toward $730 billion.

For Bitcoin itself, the picture has a familiar precedent, analyst Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of quantitative analysis platform Into the Cryptoverse argued. 

“Bitcoin is still generally tracking the average of prior midterm years (only slightly elevated off of that average),” he reported on X while tracking year-to-date return on investment.

Bitcoin RoI comparison. Source: Benjamin Cowen on X.com

Exchange flows cool after Coldcard shock

Bitcoin investors continue to react to the low-entropy bug in Coldcard hardware wallets as funds are being stolen for a fourth consecutive day. The hack, which appeared to be centered on a security vulnerability originating in 2021, had drained BTC worth nearly $90 million as of Sunday.

Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at crypto and blockchain research platform Galaxy Research, told Coldcard users to move funds “ASAP” and employ high transaction fees to reduce the remaining time spent interacting with Coldcard wallets to a minimum.

Exchange transaction data, however, does not show a mass influx of BTC from users seeking a temporary alternative to hardware wallet storage or converting their funds to ETFs. Data from CryptoQuant shows net inflows of 34,932 BTC on Friday and 8,768 BTC on Sunday. While this constitutes a significant inflow day, it is not out of the ordinary and matches the levels seen throughout the month.  

Bitcoin exchange inflows. Source: CryptoQuant

The number of depositing transactions saw a more pronounced reaction, spiking to match some of its highest daily totals since March before dropping significantly over the weekend. Exchanges recorded 31,217 inbound BTC transactions on Friday, while on Sunday, the number fell to 19,537.

Bitcoin exchange deposit transactions. Source: CryptoQuant

Responding, CryptoQuant head of research, Julio Moreno, revealed that the influx was driven by transactions of between 1 and 10 BTC. At around 7,300, these saw their highest daily total since early February.

Bitcoin exchange inflows by transaction size. Source: Julio Moreno on X.com

In some of its latest analysis released on Monday, CryptoQuant observed that on a rolling 30-day basis, Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) remained in a broad accumulation phase.

“Data shows that the BTC LTH Accumulation & Distribution (30D) indicator is currently recording LTH Supply Inflow of around 220.4K BTC. This suggests that the amount of Bitcoin flowing into the Long-Term Holder cohort continues to outweigh the amount being distributed back to the market,” it wrote.

Bitcoin 30-day LTH accumulation and distribution (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Trader consensus sees a “red” August for Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to see key trend lines act as resistance into August as market participants warn over bear-market history repeating. BTC/USD finished July up 7.4%, slightly below its 2025 performance, per data from CoinGlass. 

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Despite this, expectations remain for downside BTC price pressure to return this month, keeping the 2026 bear market in line with historical patterns. The 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) at $65,827 is an important psychological level for traders.

“It has been confirmed. The 50-Month EMA continues to act as resistance,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital wrote in an X post on Sunday. 

“Continued rejection from the 50 EMA would set price up for downside continuation over time.”

BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

On shorter time frames, CoinGlass data that tracks clusters of high-leverage BTC bets in the derivatives market showed $64,200 as a potential area of forced liquidations should price reverse higher.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Quant analyst David Eng described the price as “sitting on its long-term statistical floor” near $63,000. Eng uploaded data from the power law model, which sees price growing as a power of time.

Bitcoin Power Law data. Source: David Eng on X.com

Bitcoin heads into August with long-term holders quietly accumulating even as short-term charts flash caution. Whether the month breaks its historical pattern of weakness will likely come down to how the next few macro data points land.