SpaceX stock is attempting to stabilize near $110 ahead of its first post-IPO earnings report, but a $100 billion share unlock could limit any recovery.

SpaceX will report its second-quarter results after the US market closes on Aug. 4, giving investors their first detailed look at the company since its June initial public offering.

The report arrives at a difficult point for SPCX stock. Shares recently traded at $110.41, down about 18% from their $135 IPO price and roughly 52% below the June intraday high of $225.64.

That decline has reduced some of the valuation premium created by the IPO’s limited float. However, the company is still valued at roughly 35 to 37 times projected 2026 revenue, leaving little room for weak results or cautious guidance.

SpaceX earnings face unusually high expectations

Wall Street expects SpaceX to report approximately $6.88 billion in second-quarter revenue, according to FactSet data. Analysts forecast a loss of $0.23 per share and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of about $2.1 billion.

Full-year expectations stand near $39 billion in revenue and $17.3 billion in EBITDA.

These estimates place considerable pressure on SpaceX’s three main businesses: Starlink, rocket launches and artificial intelligence. Investors will assess whether revenue growth from Starlink and launch contracts can support the company’s spending on Starship, satellites and AI infrastructure.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield has warned that the first report could contain an “extreme expectation bias,” reflecting the potential gap between Wall Street forecasts and SpaceX’s actual performance.

Starlink is likely to receive the most attention because its recurring subscription revenue could help offset the more volatile economics of rocket development. Analysts expect the connectivity segment to remain SpaceX’s largest revenue source, supported by more than 10 million users.

The launch business also enters earnings with a substantial order pipeline. SpaceX recently secured a $1.6 billion US Space Force contract covering 18 Falcon 9 launches through 2027, adding visibility to its government-related revenue.

AI presents a less certain outlook. Investors will want details on spending, revenue and expected returns following SpaceX’s expansion into AI infrastructure. High capital expenditure without a clear path to positive free cash flow could renew concerns about the company’s valuation.

SPCX stock shows early signs of stabilization

The 4-hour chart shows SPCX stock moving out of a descending channel that guided prices lower throughout July. Shares recently rebounded from an intraday low of $104.85 and reached $112.70 before settling near $110.41.

That breakout suggests the decline may be losing momentum. However, it does not yet confirm a wider trend reversal because the stock remains close to its record low and well below several former support levels.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has produced an early bullish crossover. The MACD line stood at minus 6.99, above its signal line at minus 7.80, while the histogram turned positive at 0.81.

Because both lines remain below zero, the signal points to improving short-term momentum rather than an established bullish trend.

The Average Directional Index stood at 32.82. An ADX reading above 25 normally indicates a relatively strong trend, but the indicator does not determine its direction. In this case, it primarily confirms the strength of the decline that preceded the latest stabilization attempt.

A strong earnings report could provide the catalyst needed to validate the channel breakout. Weak results, however, could turn the move into a temporary pause within the larger downtrend.

SPCX needs to reclaim $120 to extend its recovery

Immediate resistance sits between $112.70 and $115, an area that has repeatedly limited rebounds since late July. A 4-hour close above that zone could allow SPCX to test $120.

The $120 level previously acted as short-term support before the latest breakdown. Reclaiming it would improve the technical structure and could expose the stock to resistance between $127 and $130, near the upper boundary of the former descending channel.

A move above $130 would offer stronger evidence that SPCX has formed a short-term bottom. The next major resistance area would then sit between $140 and $150, where sellers controlled several July rebounds.

On the downside, $104.85 is the first support level. A break below that intraday low would place the psychological $100 mark at risk.

Falling below $100 after earnings would invalidate the latest channel breakout and leave SPCX without a clear historical support level because the stock has traded publicly for less than two months. That lack of price history could increase volatility as investors search for a new valuation floor.

The Aug. 6 unlock could limit an earnings rally

Even an earnings beat may not remove the stock’s most immediate supply risk.

Up to 911.5 million shares held by employees and some early investors become eligible for sale on Aug. 6, the second trading day after the earnings release. At $110.41 per share, the tranche is worth about $100.6 billion.

The release exceeds the approximately 639 million shares initially available for public trading. If every eligible share entered the market, the tradable supply would rise to roughly 1.55 billion shares. Eligibility does not mean holders must sell, but the size of the tranche creates the potential for considerable selling pressure.

A second tranche of 455.8 million shares could have qualified for early release if SPCX closed at or above $175.50 on at least five of the 10 trading days through earnings. The stock’s decline means that condition will not be met.

SpaceX’s staggered lock-up structure will release additional shares over the coming months. By Dec. 8, the number of potentially tradable shares could reach approximately 5.33 billion, compared with fewer than 640 million following the IPO. Elon Musk’s holdings remain subject to a longer restriction extending into mid-2027.

Can SpaceX earnings revive SPCX stock?

The bullish scenario requires SpaceX to beat revenue expectations, demonstrate strong Starlink margins and give investors a credible plan for funding AI and Starship investments. Those results could push SPCX through $115 and toward $120 or $130.

The bearish case centers on continued losses, elevated capital spending and weak guidance. Those concerns would become more damaging when combined with the Aug. 6 unlock, particularly if employees and early investors use the earnings window to sell.

SPCX’s improving MACD and channel breakout provide an early technical basis for a rebound. Still, the stock must reclaim $120 before the move can be treated as more than a relief rally.

Earnings could revive SPCX in the short term, but holding those gains may prove harder. The company must satisfy high operating expectations just two days before its available share supply begins to expand.

The odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act’s (CLARITY) passage are dwindling as the US Senate is scheduled to begin summer recess at the end of this week, threatening another leg down for cryptocurrency valuations, according to wealth manager Bernstein.

Bernstein said that the Senate’s failure to pass the legislation could trigger an immediate negative “industry knee-jerk reaction,” which may result in another leg down for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

“From a tactical standpoint, we expect the crypto market to bottom and start showing momentum towards late Q3 and early Q4 prior to the mid-terms,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph.

At the same time, however, the analysts said that Senate failure to pass the legislation may bring more proactive policy support from regulators, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which may accelerate rulemaking initiatives under Project Crypto.

Project Crypto is a regulatory initiative first announced by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins in July 2025, which was later expanded into a joint staff initiative between the SEC and CFTC in September 2025. The initiative aims to create a workable regulatory framework for digital assets using existing agency authority while Congress finalizes crypto market legislation under the CLARITY Act.

Bernstein said that the two agencies could provide more interpretive releases tied to the taxonomy of tokens, clear rules around decentralized finance (DeFi) and accelerate the innovation exemption for issuing tokens that would be exempted from securities status during a finite period.

CLARITY Act odds decline to 31%

Bernstein’s skepticism is supported by prediction market traders who are betting against the passage of the CLARITY Act before the end of 2026.

Odds of the legislation’s passage before the end of the year are now at 31%, down 7% in the past week and down 9% in the past month, according to Polymarket, which shows about $3.7 million has been wagered on that prediction.

Prediction market odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law by the end of 2026. Source: Polymarket

Meanwhile, White House officials are reportedly weighing a bipartisan ethics counterproposal received on Thursday, following weeks of negotiations between Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego.

The proposal would enable state attorneys general to sue the Department of Justice if it fails to enforce ethics laws against federal officials, three sources familiar with the matter told crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett.  

Related: ABA, state banking groups push back on CLARITY Act stablecoin yield provisions

The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US, but it has been met with pushback from the banking industry, which argued that the current draft would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without facing the same requirements as traditional financial institutions. 

On June 26, Galaxy Digital cut its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, warning that the US Senate is running out of time to move the crypto market structure bill before its August recess. 

Magazine: How the EU’s crypto tax rules are expected to work for users and platforms

BlackRock has launched two tokenized money market products as the world’s largest asset manager expands its blockchain-based cash management and real-world asset strategy.

BlackRock launches BSTBL shares on Ethereum

The BlackRock Select Treasury Based Liquidity Fund, or BSTBL, will introduce tokenized shares of an existing money market fund on Ethereum.

Institutional investors will be able to move the shares between approved wallets, subject to regulatory and compliance requirements. This structure brings transferability onto a public blockchain while retaining controls commonly applied to regulated financial products.

BNY Mellon will serve as BSTBL’s transfer agent and tokenization service provider. Its role will connect the fund’s shareholder records and transaction processes with the infrastructure used to issue and transfer the on-chain shares.

BSTBL will invest in cash, short-term U.S. Treasury securities, and overnight repurchase agreements backed by Treasuries. The portfolio aims to preserve principal and liquidity while generating returns from short-duration government debt.

The model differs from a stablecoin because investors hold fund shares rather than tokens designed to maintain a fixed redemption value. Returns will depend on the income generated by the underlying portfolio.

BRSRV targets stablecoin reserve management

BlackRock’s second product, the BlackRock Daily Reinvestment Stablecoin Reserve Vehicle, or BRSRV, is designed for digitally native institutional investors.

Unlike BSTBL’s initial Ethereum-based structure, BRSRV will support access across multiple blockchains. The fund will also reinvest dividends daily, allowing income generated by its assets to remain within the product.

BlackRock said BRSRV could be used in several digital-asset settings, including stablecoin reserve management. Stablecoin issuers typically need liquid, low-risk assets to support redemptions, making Treasury bills and Treasury-backed repurchase agreements common reserve instruments.

Securitize will act as the fund’s transfer agent and tokenization service provider. The company already supplies infrastructure for tokenized securities and previously worked with BlackRock on its blockchain-based investment products.

BRSRV will use the same core asset categories as BSTBL: cash, short-term U.S. government debt and overnight repurchase agreements collateralized by Treasuries.

BlackRock expands its role in tokenized U.S. markets

The two launches extend BlackRock’s involvement in real-world asset tokenization beyond individual blockchain products.

crypto.news reported in July that BlackRock joined a Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation pilot testing tokenized stocks and U.S. Treasuries. The initiative involves securities already held within DTCC’s custody framework, which safeguards about $114 trillion in assets.

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, the New York Stock Exchange and nearly 40 other financial firms are also participating. The pilot lets institutions test blockchain-based representations of traditional securities without moving the underlying assets outside established market infrastructure.

For U.S. institutions, that model may reduce the operational gap between conventional securities and on-chain markets. However, wallet transfers, investor eligibility and access will remain subject to regulatory requirements rather than operating as permissionless crypto transactions.

BlackRock’s cash management group now oversees close to $1.1 trillion for corporations, banks, insurers, foundations and public institutions. Its scale could help introduce tokenized fund shares to investors already using its traditional liquidity products.

BlackRock builds across crypto and traditional finance

BlackRock has also expanded its position in regulated cryptocurrency markets through the iShares Bitcoin Trust, its U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.

As previously reported by crypto.news, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved an increase in the position limit for options tied to the fund. The limit rose fourfold from 250,000 to 1 million contracts, giving eligible traders room to hold larger options positions linked to IBIT.

The tokenized fund launches represent a separate part of BlackRock’s digital-asset strategy. Rather than providing Bitcoin exposure, BSTBL and BRSRV place traditional cash-management assets on blockchain infrastructure.

Their adoption will depend on institutional demand, regulatory access, and whether on-chain transfers provide meaningful operational advantages over existing money market fund systems.

In less than six weeks, Amazon has gained almost as much market capitalization as SpaceX has lost. Since June 26, both companies have swapped precisely $560 billion in market cap.

Believe it or not, as recently as June 16, both companies had the same valuation, each being a $2.65 trillion company.

Since then, however, their valuations have trended in opposite directions.

Shares of Amazon climbed above $284 today, carrying the online retailer’s market value past $3 trillion for the first time. Only four publicly traded companies had ever reached that mark before.

Elon Musk’s rocket, internet, and AI conglomerate SpaceX had a great start after its IPO, running above $2.9 trillion within three days and briefly eclipsing the value of Amazon for one glorious week.

Stock in SpaceX then crashed, crashed, and crashed some more. Over the past month, the stock has lost 32% of its value.

Today, Amazon’s $3.06 trillion market cap is more than twice as valuable as SpaceX’s $1.44 trillion.

A good earnings report from Amazon

Last week, Amazon reported second quarter net sales of $200 billion and operating income up an impressive 43%, largely due to tariff refund checks and an increase in its Anthropic investment.

Its Amazon Web Services division grew at its fastest rate in 18 quarters.

The company posted adjusted earnings of $1.97 per share that beat Wall Street’s $1.82 estimate, on impressive revenue of $200 billion versus an expected $196 billion.

Accelerating cloud-computing growth eased investors’ concerns about Amazon’s heavy AI spending, with analysts framing its AI expenditures as bets that were starting to pay off.

The stock surged 15% the day after the report and was up about 5% again on Monday, marking another record high.

CEO Andy Jassy said, “There’s a lot to be excited about, and we have much more coming for customers in the second half of the year and beyond.”

Some of that excitement came from outside the business. Roughly $53 billion of the quarter’s $62.6 billion net income arrived as non-operating gains, largely on Amazon’s stake in Anthropic. 

Amazon even nudged capital spending guidance toward $220 billion, and investors were happy to oblige — bidding up its stock 22% over the past week despite its plans to spend more cash on AI.

Wall Street raised its Amazon price targets. Analysts at JPMorgan raised their price target to $365 from $330, Wells Fargo reiterated its overweight recommendation and $328 price target, and TD Cowen said buy up to $350.

Kenya has anchored more than 15 million academic records to the Avalanche C-Chain as it replaces slow, paper-based certificate checks with a national electronic verification system.

Kenya moves academic verification onto Avalanche

The Kenya National Examinations Council launched the system through a local technology provider, according to an Ava Labs announcement published on Aug. 3.

The initial rollout covers more than 15 million historical examination records dating back to 1989. It also includes certificates for nearly 1 million candidates who took the Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education examination in 2025.

Those certificates are now issued exclusively through KNEC’s electronic certificate platform. Students can access and download their credentials, while employers, universities and other institutions can verify them online.

“Candidates no longer have to rely solely on physical certificates. Instead, they can securely access, download and verify their KCSE certificates online, providing a faster, more reliable and more convenient way of managing academic credentials in the digital age,” KNEC CEO David Njengere said.

KNEC plans to expand the system to about 35 million records. Its expected scope includes primary and secondary qualifications, advanced diplomas and government teacher-training certifications.

Avalanche system targets certificate fraud

Academic verification in Kenya previously depended on manual requests, physical files and centralized databases. Ava Labs said individual checks could take a month, while large verification requests from recruiters could take up to six months.

The new platform is designed to reduce that process to seconds. Anchoring certification data on Avalanche creates a tamper-resistant reference that authorized users can check against records presented by candidates.

KNEC also aims to reduce certificate forgery and the use of fraudulent verification websites. However, the announcement did not provide detailed information about which data fields are stored directly on-chain, how personal information is protected, or the cost of operating the platform.

The rollout extends Avalanche’s use in government record systems. In the United States, California’s Department of Motor Vehicles has digitized 42 million vehicle titles using Avalanche, while Bergen County, New Jersey, is using the network in a project covering 370,000 property deeds valued at about $240 billion, according to Ava Labs.

AVAX sees no clear boost from Kenya rollout

The announcement did not produce a clear breakout in AVAX, Avalanche’s native token. crypto.news data showed the token trading near $6.54, with a market capitalization of roughly $2.82 billion.

Its 24-hour trading volume stood near $170 million, down about 35% from the previous day. That suggests the Kenya announcement had not yet generated a sustained increase in market activity.

KNEC’s platform nevertheless adds a nationwide public-sector use case to the Avalanche C-Chain. Its long-term effect will depend on whether the system reaches the planned 35 million records and continues processing new certifications at scale.

Kenya expands blockchain use amid cyber risks

The academic project arrives as Kenya develops broader oversight of digital assets. As crypto.news previously reported, the Capital Markets Authority moved in July to procure surveillance software capable of monitoring Bitcoin, Ethereum and more than 20 other blockchain networks.

The regulator wants the system to trace funds, flag suspicious wallets and identify offshore crypto platforms serving Kenyan users without authorization.

Kenya’s digital expansion also faces cybersecurity risks. Hackers temporarily defaced President William Ruto’s official website on July 18 and demanded five Bitcoin as ransom. Authorities opened an investigation, but the incident was separate from KNEC’s Avalanche deployment.

The next test will be whether KNEC can expand the certification platform while protecting student data, maintaining access and preventing the digital system from creating new points of failure.

Once a goldmine for carry traders, bitcoin futures have flipped, consistently underperforming plain‑vanilla U.S. Treasuries every month since February.

Carry trades consistently yielded 20% or more across regulated and unregulated crypto exchanges during the 2021 bull market. The strategy involved shorting bitcoin BTC$63,805.30 futures while simultaneously buying a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Now they return just 3% compared with an average 3.8% yield on two-year Treasuries.

Traders have long used futures, agreements to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a specific date, to set up trades that profited from the gap between futures and spot prices, known as basis. That basis, in annualized terms, has been lower than the two‑year Treasury note continuously for more than five months, according to data source Glassnode.

“Three-month futures basis has paid less than a two-year Treasury since February. Only one other stretch on record has run this long: August 2022 into January 2023. It ended at the cycle low,” Glassnode said in a post on Telegram.

The three-month basis has been yielding less than the two-year Treasury note for 157 days, according to Glassnode’s Sunday chart.

Bitcoin analysts are pointing to August as a potential inflection point, hinging on whether the asset can secure a key monthly close that would confirm a technical bear-market bottom signal. Separately, Grayscale research suggests the bottom could have occurred earlier than the typical four-year cycle implies, pushing the focus to macro conditions rather than the calendar.

According to a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph by 10x Research founder Markus Thielen, Bitcoin’s July performance did not meet the threshold needed to validate a technical bottom. However, the firm argues that a monthly close near $63,000 in August could flip several of its cycle indicators to a bullish configuration.

Key takeaways

• 10x Research says a July monthly close failed to confirm its technical bottom signal, but an August monthly close near $63,000 could trigger a reversal indication.
• 10x Research continues to favor long positions, but would turn more neutral if Bitcoin breaks key support levels and moving averages.
• Grayscale’s Zach Pandl told investors in a July 22 report that Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the four-year cycle would suggest, potentially placing the cycle low in September or October.
• Macro variables—especially Fed policy and changes in the 10-year Treasury yield—remain central to timing both analysts’ outlooks.
• Other market participants highlight supply-side stress indicators, including the share of Bitcoin held at a loss.

What needs to happen for a 10x Research bottom signal

10x Research’s technical framework centers on cycle indicators tied to Bitcoin’s monthly price behavior. Thielen said in the Monday report that Bitcoin closed July below the level required to confirm the firm’s bear-market bottom setup.

When the analysis was prepared, Bitcoin was trading at $63,140. That matters because 10x Research argues the distance from the July closing level to the next confirmation threshold may be small. In its view, if Bitcoin prints an August monthly close around $63,000, the change could be sufficient to turn multiple cycle indicators bullish.

Importantly, 10x Research is not treating the signal as unconditional. The firm said it continued to favor long positioning, but would shift to a neutral stance if Bitcoin breaks key support levels and moving averages—an acknowledgement that technical confirmation can fail if price action deteriorates before the month ends.

Macro risks remain the timing driver

While the chart-based trigger is specific, 10x Research frames macro policy as the overriding variable. Its base case assumes the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady. But the firm also flagged two key uncertainties: further increases in the 10-year Treasury yield could raise the probability of a September rate hike, and the Iran conflict adds geopolitical risk that could disrupt risk assets more broadly.

That emphasis on the macro backdrop is also echoed by Grayscale. In a July 22 report, Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl argued that Bitcoin’s timing might not match the traditional four-year cycle pattern, but that macroeconomic conditions—including Fed policy—still represent the primary mechanism shaping Bitcoin’s price.

Grayscale: a bottom may have come early—cycle low could be later

Grayscale’s view diverges from a strict reliance on the four-year cycle. Pandl told investors that Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the traditional four-year cycle would suggest. Under that interpretation, the cycle low would still fall in September or October, even if the earliest “bottoming” signals appeared sooner.

For traders and portfolio managers, the practical difference is not just the date—it is what to monitor. If bottoming can occur in phases, then early relief rallies or stabilization periods may not immediately complete the cycle, and investors may need to watch macro catalysts that can either sustain or reverse the improvement.

Supply-side pressure and the loss-held supply signal

In addition to technical and macro narratives, market structure indicators are contributing to the debate about how close Bitcoin may be to a durable bottom.

Earlier in July, crypto brokerage K33 pointed to a supply-side stress measure: more than half of Bitcoin’s supply was held at a loss. K33 described this as another sign that the market could be approaching a bottom, because prior periods with similar loss concentration were followed by strong subsequent returns.

K33 also reported that Bitcoin bottomed within 13 to 31 days of when that threshold was reached in 2017, 2018, and 2022. The key takeaway for investors is that the timeline is not only about price resistance or moving averages—distribution and holder pain can compress into a short window that may precede a broader trend reversal.

Another data point referenced in the broader discussion is long-term holder behavior. In a June interview, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten told Cointelegraph that long-term holders’ record balance of 14.7 million BTC was an indication Bitcoin was nearing a bottom. The idea aligns with a broader pattern often seen during bear markets: if long-term holders absorb supply while not distributing into weakness, downside pressure may eventually fade.

What to watch as the month turns

For now, the near-term question is straightforward: can Bitcoin produce an August monthly close around $63,000 in a way that validates 10x Research’s cycle indicators, while macro conditions do not undermine the setup. Investors should also monitor how supply-side stress measures evolve and whether the market behavior stays consistent with the historical windows flagged by K33—because that combination of technical confirmation and shifting holder dynamics is what will determine whether “bottoming” turns into a sustained trend.

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