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Aave’s WETH unfreeze hands leverage to whales and illiquidity to everyone else

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Aave’s WETH unfreeze hands leverage to whales and illiquidity to everyone else

Spark’s MonetSupply says Aave’s decision to unfreeze its Core WETH market lets LST/LRT whales farm ~45% weETH loops while aEthWETH sits at 100% utilization, trapping regular users.

Aave (AAVE) has decided to unfreeze its Ethereum Core WETH market just as liquidity is at its tightest, drawing sharp criticism from Spark’s strategy director MonetSupply. In a post on X, he called the move “quite ill‑considered,” arguing that under the current interest rate model, LST and LRT holders can spin up aggressive circular leverage loops using assets like weETH while ordinary users are effectively locked in.

High-octane loops on a dry WETH market

According to his calculations, traders can exploit roughly a 0.5% discount on weETH’s secondary‑market price relative to ETH and an Aave ETH borrowing rate capped around 5.15% to construct recursive long ETH positions with an annualized return profile near 45% when stacked on top of the base staking yield. With the aEthWETH market already sitting at 100% utilization, every fresh loop tightens the squeeze on exit liquidity for plain‑vanilla depositors and borrowers.

The problem, MonetSupply argues, is that unfreezing WETH under these conditions does nothing to relieve the liquidity stress facing aEthWETH users. “This decision provides arbitrage opportunities without addressing the liquidity tension of aEthWETH,” he wrote, warning that users trying to withdraw WETH or roll over leveraged stables are discovering there is simply no buffer left in the pool.

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Recent comments from the Spark strategist on related ETH‑market fragilities flagged how similar dynamics can spiral: once utilization is pinned at 100%, suppliers lose incentives to stay, while borrowers lose room to deleverage, raising the risk of stuck positions and cascading liquidations if rates or collateral prices move against them. Combined with post‑Kelp DAO nerves and elevated demand for on‑chain ETH liquidity, Aave’s decision to reopen the throttle on WETH looks, in his view, less like restoring normalcy and more like inviting sophisticated loopers to farm a basis trade atop an already strained market.

If those incentives persist, the likely outcome is a familiar split: whales and structured funds capturing leveraged carry via weETH loops, while retail depositors and stablecoin borrowers face rising odds of being trapped in a market where the exit door is technically open—but functionally blocked by 100% utilization.

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Crypto World

Here Is Why The Bitcoin Price Upside Could Be Capped at $84K

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Here Is Why The Bitcoin Price Upside Could Be Capped at $84K

Market analysts said Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest rally to $78,000 means that the “uptrend has began,” but the upside could be capped at $84,000, based on several key metrics.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin profitability suggests BTC rally “has begun” 

Bitcoin’s recent price recovery toward $76,000 has pushed it more than 26% above its sub-$60,000 multi-year low reached on Feb. 6.

This was accompanied by an increase in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which hit an eight-month high of 2.87, after dropping as low as 0.62 in early February.

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Related: Bitcoin risks losing $70K as Strategy’s STRC slips below $100

SOPR is a metric used to show whether Bitcoin investors have made a profit or loss compared to when they first held Bitcoin. This ratio has historically marked the short-term bottom for BTC when it hits its lowest point.

“The $BTC SOPR Ratio shows that $BTC has already broken out of the bottom and is rising,” CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 said in a Tuesday post on X, adding:

“The bottom for $BTC was formed last February. The rally is already in progress.”

Bitcoin SOPR. Source: CryptoQuant

Similarly, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), the difference between total profits and losses currently held by investors, has flipped positive for the first time since early January.

This suggests that the downtrend for Bitcoin has ended, and the “real rally of this cycle has begun,” CW8900 said in another X post.

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Bitcoin NUPL. Source: CryptoQuant

This structurally resembles conditions seen in early stages of previous bull markets, where the NUPL recovered from extended periods below zero as Bitcoin embarked on a sustained rally.

1.1 million BTC at $84,000 could trigger sell-off

According to Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution data, investors hold approximately 1.1 million BTC at an average cost of $84,000, creating a potential resistance zone. This concentration suggests many investors may sell at break-even, potentially stalling Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

Bitcoin cost basis distribution chart. Source: Glassnode

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s immediate resistance is at $78,000, where the true market mean currently sits.

The US spot Bitcoin ETF cost basis at $83,100 is seen as the next key hurdle. 

BTC: Average cost basis of US spot ETFs. Source: Glassnode

Analyst AlphaBTC said the BTC/USD pair might rise higher to fill the CME gap at $84,000, which was created at the start of February.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: AlphaBTC

As Cointelegraph reported, a close above the $76,000-$78,000 resistance zone would confirm that the buyers are in control, clearing the path for a potential rally to $84,000.