The Australian dollar is undergoing a corrective decline after reaching recent highs, with the current move driven by market reaction to newly released macroeconomic data. Earlier gains in AUD were supported by improving global risk sentiment and steady demand for commodity-linked currencies. However, weaker labour market figures have prompted a reassessment of expectations and triggered profit-taking.

Employment data published yesterday pointed to a slowdown in growth, raising concerns about the durability of the economic recovery. Although full-time employment increased, overall job growth came in below forecasts, while the unemployment rate showed little change. Together, these factors weighed on the Australian dollar and led to a reassessment of its short-term outlook following the prior rally.

Toward the end of the week, market participants will focus on upcoming macroeconomic releases, including data on economic activity, central bank commentary, and commodity market statistics. These factors may reshape expectations and influence the direction of commodity currencies.

AUD/USD

After reaching a yearly high near 0.7180, AUD/USD has pulled back, forming a “Bearish Harami” reversal pattern. A bearish close in the current session could increase the likelihood of a deeper correction towards 0.7100–0.7120.

At the same time, a renewed break above the recent high would signal continued bullish momentum and a return of buyers to the market.

Key events for AUD/USD:

• today at 13:00 (GMT+3): International Monetary Fund meetings;
• today at 18:30 (GMT+3): speech by FOMC member Mary Daly;
• today at 22:30 (GMT+3): CFTC net speculative positions on AUD.

AUD/CAD

AUD/CAD is also moving lower, reflecting both weakness in the Australian dollar and relative resilience of the Canadian currency. Commodity market dynamics remain an additional driver, with energy prices and global demand expectations continuing to play a key role.

Technical analysis suggests the potential for a correction towards 0.9730–0.9760, as a “Dark Cloud Cover” reversal pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. A retest of recent highs will help assess the strength of demand and the likelihood of a renewed uptrend.

Key events for AUD/CAD:

• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian housing starts;
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): foreign investment in Canadian securities;
• today at 20:00 (GMT+3): Baker Hughes rig count.

The current pullback in the Australian dollar follows weaker labour market data after a period of steady gains. If downward pressure persists, the correction may deepen. However, stabilisation in the external environment and supportive incoming data could allow the broader upward trend to resume.

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Mitsui & Co. Digital Commodities (MDC), a subsidiary of Japanese trading giant Mitsui & Co., Ltd., its tokenized gold, silver, and platinum asset, Zipangcoin (ZPG), on Optimism’s Ethereum Layer 2, OP Mainnet, according to a press release shared with The Defiant.

ZPG has been issued under Japan’s regulatory framework since 2022 and currently runs on Miyabi, a proprietary private blockchain developed by longtime crypto exchange bitFlyer.

The OP Mainnet deployment marks the first time the asset will be issued in a public blockchain ecosystem. Per the release, Japanese CEX GMO Coin will list ZPG on April 20.

MDC’s parent, Mitsui & Co., is a Fortune Global 500 conglomerate with a market cap of over $94 billion, and Berkshire Hathaway as its largest shareholder, the release notes.

MDC also stated in the release that the choice of OP Mainnet follows deliberate due diligence, highlighting that OP Stack chains processed over 6 billion transactions in 2025 — 29x growth in two years.

According to DefiLlama, OP Mainnet currently has a total value locked in DeFi of over $393 million, making it the 17th largest chain in DeFi by TVL. The chain’s stablecoin market cap is approaching $579 million, and $30-day DEX volume is over $623 million.

Sho Miichi, MDC’s representative director & president, was quoted in the release saying: “We are pleased to partner with Optimism to bring a high-quality, commodity-linked digital asset from Japan to investors worldwide.”

Kyle Jenke, chief business officer at OP Labs, described Japan’s regulatory clarity as “one of the most compelling markets for on-chain finance,” adding:

“Zipangcoin is a commodity-backed cryptoasset issued by Mitsui & Co. Digital Commodities and will be the first cryptoasset issued by a Japanese company to launch on OP Mainnet.”

The ZPG launch on Optimism fits into a broader wave of institutional-grade assets moving on-chain.

On-chain tokenized RWAs tripled to roughly $18.6 billion over the course of 2025, with analysts projecting the market could reach $2 trillion by 2030.

Earlier this year, ether.fi migrated its crypto neobank — with $5.7 billion in TVL and around 50,000 active cards — from Scroll to OP Mainnet to access enterprise-grade payment infrastructure.

Tokenized precious metals trading has surged in recent months across both centralized and decentralized platforms. Earlier this week, decentralized perpetual exchange GMX launched 24/7 gold and silver markets on L2 Arbitrum, recording more than $10 million in trades on the first day.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

Key Takeaways

• Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, claims Bitcoin’s BIP-361 quantum protection measure is misleadingly classified as a soft fork when it actually demands a hard fork.
• The BIP-361 framework suggests locking quantum-susceptible Bitcoin wallets and mandating users transition to quantum-resistant addresses.
• BIP-361’s zero-knowledge proof recovery mechanism fails to assist holders of approximately 1.7 million Bitcoin generated before 2013 seed phrase protocols were standardized.
• Roughly 1.1 million of these coins are attributed to Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto and would face permanent lockdown if the measure is implemented.
• Data reveals that by March 1, 2026, over 34% of circulating Bitcoin features exposed public keys susceptible to quantum computing threats.

Cardano’s creator Charles Hoskinson has openly challenged Bitcoin’s planned quantum computing countermeasure, claiming it carries a misleading technical classification and offers no safeguard for the network’s earliest holdings.

The measure under scrutiny is BIP-361, jointly developed by Bitcoin core developer Jameson Lopp alongside other contributors. The proposal seeks to eliminate Bitcoin addresses exposed to quantum computer vulnerabilities by locking those holdings and requiring users to transfer to more secure addresses.

During a livestream broadcast this week, Hoskinson referenced statistics indicating that by March 1, 2026, more than 34% of circulating Bitcoin will have public keys exposed on the blockchain. This represents approximately 8 million Bitcoin vulnerable to attack from advanced quantum computing systems.

BIP-361 incorporates a zero-knowledge proof recovery framework designed to enable holders with standard wallet seed phrases to verify ownership and retrieve frozen assets following migration.

However, Hoskinson contends this recovery mechanism fails for roughly 1.7 million Bitcoin stored in wallets created before the BIP-39 seed phrase protocol gained widespread adoption around 2013.

These legacy wallets utilized an alternative key generation approach from Bitcoin’s original client software. They depended on local key pools instead of recoverable seed phrases. Without seed phrase access, constructing the zero-knowledge proof necessary for coin retrieval becomes impossible.

“1.7 million coins can’t do that. It’s not possible. 1.1 million of which belong to Satoshi,” Hoskinson stated.

The Hard Fork Controversy

Beyond recovery limitations, Hoskinson contested BIP-361’s classification. He argued the proposal presents itself as a soft fork while functionally demanding a hard fork due to its invalidation of existing signature schemes that remain actively deployed.

“To actually do this, you need a hard fork,” Hoskinson explained. Bitcoin has never implemented a hard fork, and its development community has traditionally resisted such changes.

Lopp, one of the proposal’s co-authors, admitted on X this week that he personally dislikes the plan and characterized it as “a rough idea for a contingency plan” instead of a finalized specification.

Lopp has maintained that freezing inactive coins—which he calculates at 5.6 million Bitcoin—would be more favorable than allowing future quantum attackers to recover and liquidate them in markets.

Governance Structure and Institutional Influence

Hoskinson additionally contended that Bitcoin’s absence of formal on-chain governance infrastructure leaves it without clear procedures for resolving such critical decisions. He cited Cardano, Polkadot, and Tezos as blockchain networks equipped with structured governance frameworks capable of addressing similar matters through community-driven voting mechanisms.

He predicted that major institutional stakeholders, including asset management firms that have accumulated substantial Bitcoin positions in recent years, will ultimately force Bitcoin developers to implement changes despite potential community opposition.

Should BIP-361 be adopted in its present formulation, the approximately 1.7 million pre-2013 coins would become irreversibly frozen without any recovery mechanism available.

Here is something worth noting about bitcoin BTC$75,090.18. Beneath all the noise from daily price swings, X posts and macro headlines, there is a remarkably simple indicator that has quietly called every major market bottom since 2015. Not once, but every single time.

To the dismay of bulls, it hasn’t fired yet, suggesting the broader bear market may not be over, and the recent bounce to $75,000 from $65,000 could be a temporary recovery.

The indicator

It involves two lines on the price chart. That’s it, no complex formula, analysis of blockchain data needed.

These two lines represent bitcoin’s average price over the past 50 and 100 weeks. They act as simple moving averages, showing near-term and long-term trends in bitcoin’s price.

Most of the time, the 50-week average is above the 100-week line. That’s the natural state for markets that trend upward over time, as is the case with bitcoin.

But occasionally, during periods of peak fear, when selling is relentless, and sentiment has collapsed, the 50-week average falls below the 100-week average. This crossover is known as a bear market signal.

It has occurred three times in bitcoin’s history. Each time, it has coincided with the end of a bear market, marking major price bottoms that have not been revisited since.

In other words, it’s been a contrary indicator, ironically marking bottoms rather than deeper downturns.

Three times, three bottoms

Look at the vertical lines on the chart going back to 2015. These mark the three bearish crossovers – April 2015, February 2019, and September 2022. Each one occurred near the bottoming phase, not precisely at the lowest point, but within the same range.

In 2015, BTC was written off as a failed experiment. Then the crossover happened. BTC subsequently rallied from $200 to nearly $20,000 by the end of 2017. A similar pattern played out after the early 2019 crossover.

The 2022 crypto winter, characterized by several bankruptcies and scams, shattered investor confidence. The downtrend, however, ran out of steam after the crossover happened in September. BTC bottomed out in the final months and later chalked out a rally to $126,000 by October 20205.

Each of these bull runs delivered returns far exceeding those of equities and other major asset classes.

What is it saying now?

As of April 17, the crossover has not happened.

Bitcoin has declined sharply from its October record high of over $126,000 to around $75,000, briefly reaching $60,000 in early February. As a result, the two averages are moving closer together, but the 50-week average still holds above the 100-week average.

The takeaway: If history is any guide, the broader bear market may still be intact and could worsen before finding a bottom. It also means that the recent bounce toward $75,000 is likely a temporary recovery rather than the start of a full-fledged bull market.

That said, historical patterns are just that – patterns – and they do not guarantee future outcomes. If U.S. equities, already at record highs, continue to advance, institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs could strengthen, potentially supporting a price rally.

Ethereum, the world’s largest smart contract blockchain, just printed its busiest quarter ever, and the token’s price hasn’t budged.

The network processed 200.4 million transactions on its base layer in Q1 2026, marking the first time it has crossed that threshold in a single quarter, according to Artemis data. Quarterly transaction count bottomed near 90 million in 2023, then spent most of 2024 grinding sideways between 100 million and 120 million.

The Ethereum smart contract blockchain is a decentralized system that can automatically execute agreements without the need for a bank, lawyer, or middleman. Transactions on Ethereum are records of actions, such as sending native token ether (ETH), interacting with smart contracts, or transferring tokens, that are securely processed and imprinted on the blockchain.

Layer 2s and stablecoins lead the boom

The recovery in Ethereum’s on-chain activity began in mid-2025, with each successive quarter seeing higher activity than the last. This led to Q1 2026, when activity jumped 43% from Q4 2025’s 145 million, marking a clear U-shaped growth from the 2023 bottom.

Still, Ethereum’s native token ether is down over 50% from its August 2025 high of nearly $5,000. It traded around $2,328 as of Friday morning. This divergence may present an opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on fundamental growth and statistics.

Most of the traffic lives on Layer 2s, which are separate networks built on top of Ethereum that process transactions cheaply and then batch them down to the main chain for final settlement. Think of Layer 2s as extra packs attached to your bike, letting you carry more than you could on your own.

Base and Arbitrum are the two largest, where users interact with them for lower fees, and the activity shows up on Ethereum’s base layer as settlement and bridging.

Stablecoins, or tokenized versions of fiat currencies, are also being used heavily on Ethereum. According to Token Terminal, the total supply of stablecoins on Ethereum has reached a record $180 billion, according to Token Terminal, accounting for about 60% of the global stablecoin market.

Both trends push transaction counts higher on L1 through settlement and bridging activity, even when end users never directly touch the base layer.

The risk flagged by some analysts is that L2 activity masks base-layer fee pressure.

Ethereum earns less per transaction after the Dencun upgrade significantly reduced data costs for L2s, meaning more activity does not cleanly translate into more burn or more holder value.

The broader read is that Ethereum’s usage has completed the kind of multi-year recovery that typically precedes price movement rather than trails it.

Whether this quarter marks an inflection or the top of a local cycle depends on whether the 200 million figure holds in Q2, and whether the growth continues to be driven by genuine onboarding rather than bot activity, which has increasingly dominated stablecoin transaction volume on-chain.

Key Takeaways

• On April 15, the S&P 500 reached 7,022.95, breaking its January 28 record, while the Nasdaq achieved an unprecedented high of 24,016
• Tom Lee contends the US market is absorbing elevated oil prices more effectively than global counterparts, despite crude exceeding $100/barrel following Hormuz Strait disruptions
• Monthly defense expenditures approaching $30 billion are strengthening corporate earnings and providing economic support amid US-Iran tensions
• Historical patterns suggest oil price spikes may produce milder inflation effects than current market fears indicate, according to Lee
• Cash-heavy institutional investors face pressure to enter markets at record levels, generating fresh demand — Lee holds firm on his 7,300 S&P 500 projection

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq established fresh all-time records this week, recovering from declines associated with escalating US-Iran tensions that have weighed on investor sentiment since late January. The S&P 500 finished trading at 7,022.95 on April 15, eclipsing its prior benchmark from January 28. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq concluded at 24,016, marking its own historic milestone.

Fundstrat’s founder Tom Lee joined CNBC’s Closing Bell to outline his view that current market conditions are fundamentally stronger than those present during earlier 2026 peaks. He presented three distinct rationales supporting this position.

Lee’s opening argument centered on oil prices. Crude prices jumped past the $100 threshold after disruptions to shipping through the Hormuz Strait. While recognizing this challenge, Lee emphasized that American markets are weathering the situation more successfully than international peers.

“The stock market finds itself in superior condition compared to where we stood at the year’s outset,” Lee stated. He highlighted that elevated energy costs are constraining other economies more severely, while US equities have demonstrated resilience in absorbing this pressure.

Crude prices experienced some retreat from peak levels as market participants anticipated potential diplomatic resolution between Washington and Tehran.

Earnings Strength Persists

Lee’s second rationale emphasized corporate financial performance. He observed that company profitability has maintained momentum throughout the conflict period, suggesting the geopolitical situation has actually provided economic stimulus rather than hindrance to American businesses.

Defense sector expenditures play a central role in this dynamic. Lee highlighted that monthly defense outlays currently hover around $30 billion, with scenarios suggesting potential expansion to $60 billion. These funds are circulating directly through the domestic economy.

He drew a contrast with oil-related costs, estimating American consumers collectively shoulder approximately $12 billion monthly in elevated energy expenses — yielding a net economic benefit when compared against defense spending inflows.

Technology sector firms have delivered robust first quarter 2026 earnings, frequently surpassing analyst projections. These results have helped validate current Nasdaq price levels.

Inflation Concerns May Be Overblown

Lee’s third point challenged widespread inflation anxieties. Numerous market observers have cautioned that triple-digit oil prices will cascade into broader consumer price increases. Lee offered a contrary perspective.

“Historical examination of energy price fluctuations reveals that their influence on core inflation metrics proves less pronounced than we initially expected,” he explained. He anticipates the inflationary impact will be more modest than current market pricing suggests.

Institutional Capital Deployment Accelerates

Throughout the recent market correction, substantial institutional capital remained uncommitted as fund managers accumulated cash positions. With equity indices now establishing new records, these investors confront mounting pressure to allocate reserves or risk underperforming their respective benchmarks.

Lee reaffirmed his year-end S&P 500 forecast of 7,300, implying approximately 4% appreciation potential from present levels.

Bitcoin alongside other digital assets have traditionally correlated with technology equities during risk-on market phases, while blockchain analytics reveal increased capital flows into institutional Bitcoin investment vehicles throughout recent weeks.