Connect with us
DAPA Banner

Crypto World

Bitcoin bottom or bull trap? Whales and bears disagree

Published

on

Bitcoin whales add 61,568 BTC as price slips again

Bitcoin is showing mixed signals as on-chain data points in two different directions. 

Summary

  • CryptoQuant said record Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses showed whales were quietly building positions daily.
  • XWIN Research Japan said STH-SOPR near one showed short-term holders were selling at losses.
  • Negative Coinbase Premium showed weak US demand, keeping Bitcoin bottom confirmation out of reach now.

CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 said Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses are setting new records each day. The analyst said a large amount of BTC is moving into these wallets even as the market trades in a sideways range.

According to CW8900, whale activity appears to be keeping price action stable while accumulation continues. The analyst said large holders are maintaining prices and adding Bitcoin instead of selling into the market and creating panic among smaller investors.

Advertisement

CW8900 also said retail participation has thinned out. The analyst wrote that most retail investors have already left the market, leaving only a small group of participants while whales continue to build positions.

That reading supports the view that large players are buying quietly during a period of weak volatility. CW8900 said the trend increases the chance of an upward move if buying pressure continues without major disruption to price.

XWIN Research Japan presented a different view and said the market bottom is “not confirmed.” The firm pointed to the Short-Term Holder SOPR, or STH-SOPR, which tracks whether short-term holders are selling Bitcoin at a profit or a loss.

Advertisement

The report said the indicator is hovering around or below 1. That level usually shows that short-term holders are selling at a loss, a pattern often seen when weaker hands exit during a correction.

XWIN Research Japan said this can appear in the early stage of bottom formation. Still, the firm said that selling pressure alone does not confirm a reversal unless buyers step in with clear demand.

That is why the firm also focused on the Coinbase Premium Gap. The metric tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges and is often used as a signal for US spot demand.

Weak Coinbase premium keeps bottom debate open

XWIN Research Japan said the Coinbase Premium remains in negative territory. The firm said that reading shows US investors are not buying Bitcoin aggressively at current levels.

Advertisement

The report added that earlier bull phases often featured a steady positive premium, which helped support stronger upside momentum. That condition has not returned in the current market, according to the firm.

Taken together, the two views show a divided setup for Bitcoin. Whale wallets appear to be absorbing supply, but weak US demand is keeping the “bottom not confirmed” argument in place for now.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Advertisement

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Crypto World

Market Preview: CPI Inflation Reports and Delta (DAL) Earnings Amid Iran Conflict

Published

on

Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Highlights

  • First inflation measurements since Iran conflict began: March CPI and February PCE reports scheduled
  • March employment report showed 178,000 new positions, surpassing the 65,000 forecast
  • Crude prices surged more than 50% following war outbreak, pushing gasoline beyond $4 nationwide
  • Delta Air Lines earnings Wednesday will reveal jet fuel expense impact on carrier profitability
  • Major indices snapped five consecutive weeks of declines, climbing at minimum 3%

Investors are preparing for a pivotal week featuring critical inflation measurements, quarterly corporate results, and continued monitoring of the Iran conflict’s economic ramifications.

Last week’s trading session saw the S&P 500 advance 1.6%, while the Dow Jones climbed 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.2%. The rally ended a five-week decline for all three benchmarks. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 and Dow remain lower by 3.8% and 3.2%, respectively.

[[IMG_2]]
E-Mini S&P 500 Jun 26 (ES=F)

Friday’s employment data for March significantly exceeded analyst projections. The report revealed 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions versus consensus estimates of 65,000. This represented a sharp reversal from February’s 92,000 job losses.

“The message here is equilibrium,” noted Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “Robust employment growth diminishes pressure for immediate rate reductions, though it doesn’t alter the overall deceleration pattern.”

Michael Feroli, JPMorgan Chase’s chief US economist, indicated the figures provided “somewhat greater assurance that economic expansion can absorb the current energy cost surge without substantial lasting harm.”

Critical Inflation Measurements Approaching

Thursday delivers the February Personal Consumption Expenditures index, an inflation gauge the Federal Reserve prioritizes. Analyst consensus projects a 0.4% monthly advance and 2.8% annual growth.

Advertisement
[[IMG_3]]
Source: Forex Factory

Friday presents the more significant release: March’s Consumer Price Index. Forecasters anticipate a 0.9% monthly increase and 3.4% annual rise. February’s CPI registered 2.4% annually. This upcoming report represents the initial measurement incorporating Iran war-related pricing effects.

National average gasoline prices exceeded $4 per gallon last week, per AAA data. Goldman Sachs analyst Ben Shumway noted escalating costs are “contributing to further deterioration in consumer sentiment from previously depressed readings.”

Andy Schneider, senior US economist at BNP Paribas, observed that “supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have materialized while tariff impacts continue spreading,” noting that “initial petroleum price transmission will be reflected in March figures.”

Goldman economist Manuel Abecasis characterized the present supply disruption as “less worrisome than previous instances that generated inflation challenges,” pointing to its constrained scope and range.

Corporate Results and Conflict Implications

Delta Air Lines releases quarterly results Wednesday morning before market open. The carrier’s performance will illuminate how elevated aviation fuel expenses are impacting airline sector margins. Constellation Brands and Levi Strauss additionally report during the period.

Advertisement

Street analysts forecast earnings expansion exceeding 13% across the S&P 500 overall, per FactSet data.

Oil prices have climbed over 50% during the five weeks since hostilities commenced. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually nonexistent. Trump conducted a Monday briefing alongside military leadership as his self-established deadline for strait reopening nears.

Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn observed that “investors have shifted from pricing in de-escalation scenarios to assessing escalation likelihood.”

Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, Rystad Energy’s chief oil analyst, indicated the temporary cushion that initially contained price increases from pre-conflict petroleum inventories is now depleting.

Advertisement

The Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting minutes release Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. Market participants broadly anticipate the Fed will maintain current interest rates at its upcoming April session.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

Odds of a US Invasion of Iran Spike After Trump’s Threat of Escalation

Published

on

Iran, US Government, United States, Donald Trump, Oil and Gas, Polymarket

The odds of the United States invading Iran this year surged to 63% on the Polymarket prediction platform on Sunday, following comments made by US President Donald Trump on social media.

Despite the surge, the odds of an invasion before 2027 are still down from the high of 68% on March 29, due to a US troop buildup in the region and comments from the Trump administration that the United States was considering capturing Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil shipping station.

Volume on that prediction was about $3.74 million at the time of publication.

Iran, US Government, United States, Donald Trump, Oil and Gas, Polymarket
Odds of the US invading Iran before 2027 surge to 63%. Source: Polymarket

On Tuesday, after Trump signaled that the US might leave Iran in the next two to three weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) jumped by about 2.6% and the S&P 500 index to added about 2.91%. However, Trump reversed course with his latest statement on Sunday. He wrote:

“Tuesday will be power plant day, and bridge day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it! Open the fuckin’ strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell.”

At last look, BTC was little changed, trading up less than 0.1% in the past 24 hours, remaining anchored around the $67,500 level, according to data from TradingView.

Advertisement

The mixed signals from the Trump administration on the war and how long it will last continue to create investor uncertainty and an impact on all risk asset prices, as market analysts, traders and economists attempt to forecast the effects of the war.

Iran, US Government, United States, Donald Trump, Oil and Gas, Polymarket
Source: Donald Trump

Related: Polymarket takes down market on missing US pilot after backlash

Trump’s comments draw a wave of online backlash, but asset prices barely budge

“I wish Trump would stop threatening Iranian civilian infrastructure. It’s a lose-lose for us: backing down hurts his negotiating credibility,” economist Peter Schiff said in response to Trump’s comments. 

“Carrying it out escalates the war, damages US standing, generates sympathy for Iran and fuels Iranian hatred for America,” Schiff continued.

“I assumed this was a fake, it isn’t — wild,” podcaster and Bitcoin advocate Peter McCormack said.

Advertisement

Brent crude oil, the most widely used pricing benchmark for the international spot oil market, remains elevated, closing Thursday at more than $109 per barrel. Trading is scheduled to resume on Monday following the Easter holiday weekend.

Magazine: Inside the Iranian Bitcoin mining industry