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Bitcoin (BTC) price holds above a make-or-break level before Warsh confirmation hearing

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XRP's daily price swings in candlestick format. (TradingView)

Bitcoin is trading with a positive bias above the $75,000 level, which CoinDesk recently highlighted as a critical threshold for bulls to maintain control.

Still, some observers are urging caution, noting that prices need to hold above that level through Wednesday, when the U.S.–Iran ceasefire is set to end.

“The ceasefire is set to expire Wednesday evening Washington time, and the market has to price two paths, extension and de-escalation versus renewed escalation and oil stress. That is why even with BTC strong, the tape can still gap fast. It is headline risk with a timer,” analysts at Marex said in an email to CoinDesk.

An escalation could take oil prices well above the March high of $119, potentially sending Asian and global equity markets into a tailspin. The question remains whether bitcoin, which held relatively steady around $70,000 during the March conflict, will remain resilient or come under pressure along with the broader market.

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As of the time of writing, no delegation from Iran had departed for the talks in Pakistan. On Monday, President Donald Trump warned of a major escalation in the conflict if the ceasefire ends without a deal.

Also on analysts’ radar is Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing for Federal Reserve chair, scheduled for Tuesday. Warsh has a reputation as an “inflation hawk” who opposed interest-rate cuts and quantitative easing following the 2008 crash.

So what he says during the session could move markets. “His remarks could act as a near-term catalyst, particularly if they reinforce expectations of policy easing,” digital assets trading firm QCP Capital said in a note.

Speaking of the broader market, major cryptocurrencies such as ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) have risen by less than 2% over the past 24 hours, underperforming bitcoin. Smaller tokens such as XLM and TON have risen by more than 5% each. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index is up over 3%.

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Notably, the DeFi Select Index added 2%, which is surprising given the industry-wide fallout from the weekend hack of KelpDAO. That saw the attacker drain rsETH, a liquid restaking token widely used as collateral on several DeFi platforms.

Decentralized lender Aave has taken the biggest hit, with the total value of crypto assets locked on its platform falling to $16 billion, down nearly $10 billion since before the hack.

Aave’s native token, AAVE, has declined 18% to $93 since the hack. At the same time, open interest in futures tied to the token hit a record high of 3.59 million tokens. Increased demand for leveraged bets points to potential for more volatility ahead. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

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What’s trending

Today’s signal

XRP's daily price swings in candlestick format. (TradingView)

The chart shows XRP’s daily price swings in candlestick format. The white line represents the average price over 100 days and the yellow line represents the prolonged bear market.

XRP remains below both the average and the trendline even as market leaders bitcoin and ether (ETH) have topped these levels on their respective price charts.

Until the price reclaims both the 100-day average and the downtrend line, momentum remains comparatively weak versus BTC and ETH, which have already established firmer bullish structures.

Premarket data (CoinDesk)

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Crypto World

Kelp Exploiter Moves $175M of Stolen Funds: Arkham

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Kelp Exploiter Moves $175M of Stolen Funds: Arkham

The attacker behind the roughly $290 million Kelp DAO exploit began moving tens of thousands of Ether to newly created blockchain addresses on Tuesday, in what appears to be an effort to start laundering the stolen funds.

The wallet tagged by Arkham as linked to the Kelp DAO exploit moved about 75,700 Ether (ETH) worth roughly $175 million across three transactions on Tuesday, including a 25,000 ETH transfer to one newly created address and transfers of 50,700 ETH and 0.7 ETH to another.

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT wrote in a Tuesday Telegram post that addresses tied to the exploit had begun moving funds through THORChain and Umbra. He flagged three THORChain transactions totaling about $1.5 million and a separate $78,000 transfer through Umbra.

On Saturday, an attacker drained about 116,500 restaked Ether (rsETH), worth roughly $290 million to $293 million at the time, from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered rsETH bridge.

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LayerZero said Kelp DAO’s 1/1 decentralized verifier network (DVN) setup created a single point of failure by relying on a single verifier path for cross-chain messages. LayerZero said it had previously advised against that configuration.

Fallout spreads across DeFi

The transfers came hours after Arbitrum said its 12-member security council had taken emergency action to freeze 30,766 ETH tied to the exploit and move the funds into an “intermediary frozen wallet” accessible only through Arbitrum governance.

Kelp DAO attacker-tagged wallet, latest transactions. Source: Arkham 

The exploit also hit other DeFi protocols, including Aave, where the attacker used the stolen funds as collateral to borrow against the protocol. Early estimates put the hole at about $195 million, but Aave’s Monday incident report later outlined two potential outcomes: roughly $123.7 million in bad debt under one scenario and about $230.1 million under another.

The transfers suggest the attackers had begun moving funds through non-custodial protocols that can complicate tracing and recovery. THORChain does not require traditional Know Your Customer checks.

During the $1.4 billion Bybit hack in 2025, attackers converted about 83% of the stolen Ether into Bitcoin (BTC), with 72% of the funds moving through THORChain, according to Bybit CEO Ben Zhou. Zhou said at the time that 77% of the stolen funds were still traceable.

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Related: ZachXBT asks MemeCore to explain valuation and token supply

Aave unfreezes Ethereum V3 market as borrow rates spike

On Tuesday, Aave said it had unfrozen Wrapped Ether (WETH) reserves on the Ethereum Core V3 market, enabling users to supply WETH to the V3 lending protocol once again. However, WETH reserves across Ethereum Prime, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle and Linea remain frozen.

Source: Julio Moreno

Meanwhile, the thinning liquidity saw Aave’s borrowing rates for USDt (USDT) rise from 3% to 14%, marking the highest figures since December 2024, wrote Julio Moreno, the head of research at analytics platform CryptoQuant, in a Monday X post.

Fears over a potential contagion caused significant outflows from Aave, as its total value locked (TVL) fell by about $10 billion since the exploit to $16.4 billion as of Tuesday, DefiLlama data shows.

Magazine: 53 DeFi projects infiltrated, 50M NEO tokens could be ‘given back’: Asia Express

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