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Bitcoin (BTC) price rallies on Iran ceasefire talks, Algorand (ALGO) extends gains: Crypto Markets Today

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Bitcoin (BTC) price rallies on Iran ceasefire talks, Algorand (ALGO) extends gains: Crypto Markets Today

Bitcoin climbed to near $70,000 as traders reacted to signs of possible de-escalation in the Iran war and amid a short squeeze that liquidated more than $270 million in shorts.

Crypto prices rose, along with equity index futures and equities, as Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire. The report raised hopes that hostilities could ease, potentially lowering the risks for ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.

That is improving appetite for risk assets across markets, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell. The retreat is being amplified as reports suggest Pakistan is brokering what’s being called the “Islamabad Accord.”

Under the deal, a ceasefire would take effect immediately and the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. Nevertheless, markets still need convincing.

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On Polymarket, the odds of a ceasefire this month are at around 30%, up from 18% before the Islamabad Accord came to light. Oil prices remain elevated, and the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

If a ceasefire materializes and the conflict winds down, a relief rally could further benefit risk assets. For now, though, traders appear to be treating the headlines with skepticism.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Notional open interest (OI) in bitcoin and ether (ETH) has risen by 7% and 11%, respectively, outpacing spot price gains. This suggests fresh capital inflows into the market, likely chasing bullish exposure, as both funding rates and cumulative volume deltas for BTC and ETH remain positive.
  • Among altcoins, ADA, AVAX and LINK stand out with double-digit increases in open interest alongside positive funding rates. In contrast, sentiment appears bearish for BCH and HYPE, which are sporting negative funding rates.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility meltdown continues, signaling market calm and supporting bullish price action. The 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has dropped below 50% for the first time since early February. Ether’s index, EVIV, also fell to the lowest level in weeks.
  • On Deribit, bitcoin’s $60,000 put and the $80,000 call are the most popular options bets, each boasting a notional open interest of $1.40 billion at press time. These, therefore, are key levels to watch, as they represent areas where traders are heavily positioned for either downside protection or upside participation.
  • Volatility, therefore, could pick up sharply if prices move outside of the $60,000-$80,000 range.
  • Broadly speaking, the mood in options market remains cautious despite bullish hints in futures. BTC and ETH puts remain pricier than calls, a sign of sticky demand for downside hedging. Some of the bias for puts also stems from persistent overwriting of calls, a yield-generating strategy.

Token Talk

  • Algorand’s ALGO token has surged nearly 50% in the past 30 days after a Google Quantum AI research paper highlighted its approach to quantum-resistant security.
  • The Google report examined how blockchains can defend against future threats from quantum computers, which might be able to break current encryption methods. Algorand drew notable attention for its use of FALCON, a post-quantum signature scheme selected by U.S. standards body NIST.
  • The network already uses the system for features like state proofs, which confirm ledger updates, and for certain transaction types.
  • ALGO rose from about $0.08 to near $0.12 so far, bringing its market capitalization past $1 billion. It’s up more than 7.3% in the last 24 hours amid a wider market rally.

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Polymarket to rebuild engine, launch native dollar stablecoin

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Polymarket banned in Argentina after regulatory probe

Polymarket will rebuild its core engine, introduce a hybrid CLOB, and launch Polymarket USD, a USDC‑backed stablecoin on Polygon aimed at cheaper, more institution‑friendly trading.

Summary

  • Prediction market Polymarket plans its “largest infrastructure upgrade” in the next 2–3 weeks, overhauling its matching engine and smart contracts.
  • The upgrade will introduce a new hybrid CLOB model and a native stablecoin, Polymarket USD, pegged 1:1 to USDC on Polygon.
  • The changes aim to cut gas costs, boost efficiency, and make the platform friendlier to institutions via EIP‑1271 and multi‑sig support.

On‑chain prediction market Polymarket will roll out what it calls “the largest infrastructure upgrade since its launch” in the coming 2–3 weeks, rebuilding its core trading engine and debuting a native dollar stablecoin, Polymarket USD, according to plans shared with The Block. The company said the overhaul will “completely reconstruct” its matching engine via a new CTF Exchange V2 smart‑contract system, while introducing a native stablecoin pegged 1:1 to USDC to replace the current bridged USDC.e on Polygon. Existing order books will be cleared during the migration, with Polymarket promising to give users at least one week’s notice before maintenance begins.

At the heart of the upgrade is a redesigned Central Limit Order Book that uses a hybrid model of off‑chain order matching combined with on‑chain, non‑custodial settlement. In technical documentation for its CTF Exchange, Polymarket describes the architecture as a “hybrid‑decentralized model” where an operator handles off‑chain matching while settlement remains on‑chain, a setup it says optimizes “performance and security” for high‑volume event markets. The Block reports that CTF Exchange V2 will introduce new matching logic and order‑data structures intended to improve matching efficiency and reduce gas costs for traders.

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Polymarket has grown into one of the largest fully on‑chain prediction venues, recently drawing hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidity and a $600 million strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) as part of a broader bet on decentralized betting markets. ICE said its combined $1.6 billion of direct and secondary investment is not expected to be material to its financial results but positions the exchange operator as a key backer in what it calls a “David and Goliath battle” to bring prediction markets into the financial mainstream.

On the asset side, Polymarket USD formalizes a shift already underway in partnership with Circle to move from bridged USDC.e to native USDC on Polygon for all trading, order placement, and settlement. Circle has said native USDC, redeemable 1:1 for US dollars through its regulated entities, offers a “capital‑efficient” and more secure alternative to bridged tokens by eliminating cross‑chain bridge risk and tying collateral directly to its reserves. In line with that, Polymarket USD will be pegged 1:1 to USDC and used as the core collateral across the platform, with deposits from networks such as Ethereum, Solana, Arbitrum, and Base automatically converted into the new stablecoin on Polygon.

Polymarket will also add support for the EIP‑1271 (ERC‑1271) standard, allowing smart‑contract wallets such as Safe to validate signatures and trade directly, a move aimed at “expanding use cases for institutions and advanced users.” EIP‑1271 lets contracts define an isValidSignature method with arbitrary logic, making it easier for DAOs, funds, and multi‑sig setups to participate in non‑custodial markets without relying on externally owned accounts. The upgrade comes as competition in prediction markets intensifies, with Polymarket using performance, native dollar liquidity, and institutional‑grade wallet support to defend its lead in what it brands “The World’s Largest Prediction Market.”

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Bitcoin Profit Takers Keep BTC Price Action Away From $70,000 Reclaim

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Bitcoin Profit Takers Keep BTC Price Action Away From $70,000 Reclaim

Bitcoin found familiar resistance as it crossed the $70,000 mark to hit new April highs, with analysis blaming “profit-taking pressure.”

Bitcoin (BTC) coiled below $70,000 at Monday’s Wall Street open as analysis blamed profit taking for price inertia.

Key points:

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  • Bitcoin and stocks wobble as the US trading session begins amid nerves over the US-Iran war outcome.

  • Profit taking activity is keeping BTC price action away from a $70,000 reclaim, says research.

  • A Trader says $71,000 will act as fuel for a surge $10,000 higher.

BTC price meets “profit-taking pressure”

Data from TradingView showed BTC price action consolidating after hitting new April highs of $70,275 on Bitstamp.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Market nerves over the US-Iran war resulted in uncertain trading, with US stocks treading water at the open.

Speaking to the media at a military event, US President Donald Trump reiterated earlier comments that Iran would “have no bridges” and “no power plants” unless a deal was reached.

“I won’t go further because there are other things that are worse than those two,” he told reporters.

Trump previously stated that the deadline for a deal was 8pm Eastern time on Tuesday.

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With price pinned below the $70,000 mark, onchain analytics platform Glassnode pointed to internal market forces as the reason for the lack of continuation higher.

“As price probed the $70K region, Realized Profit/hour spiked above $20M, signalling a local exhaustion,” it noted in a post on X

“A pattern consistent since February 2026: Every approach to the $70k–$80K band meets thin liquidity and profit-taking pressure, capping the bounce.”

Bitcoin realized profit chart. Source: Glassnode/X

Pseudonymous trader LP added that Mondays and Thursdays had seen the upper and lower end of the week’s trading range throughout 2026.

“Price pushed higher into Monday, increasing the probability of this pivot forming a weekly high. If the correlation continues to play out, this would suggest Thursday forms the low of the week,” they told X followers. 

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“Watch price action closely today and tomorrow, it will confirm whether this intra-week pivot resolved as a high or a low.”

BTC price chart. Source: LP/X

Bitcoin trader eyes $71,000 springboard

Continuing, crypto trader Michaël Van de Poppe said the line in sand for bears lay slightly higher than Monday’s current peak.

Related: First real bull signal since 2025? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

“Pretty strong momentum on the markets of Bitcoin,” he wrote on X about the initial move to $70,000. 

“Volatility picking up, and I think it’s fireworks during this week as we might be getting to the end stage of the entire situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If Bitcoin breaks $71K, then markets are in for a test at $80K.”

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël Van de Poppe

Van de Poppe further cautioned on following blanket market consensus over new lows coming next.

“Given that all the markets are so oversold at this point, all on-chain indicators are looking overextended and are at similar levels to the bottom areas in 2018, 2020 and 2022, I wouldn’t be surprised that we’re getting a relief run that’s going to turn the sentiment quickly,” he concluded.