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Bitcoin Could Slide to This Key Level Before Bounce

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Analysts Explain Why Bitcoin and Altcoins Crashed


The exchange’s institutional desk highlights negative gamma exposure between $60,000 and $70,000, a setup that can amplify volatility.

Bitcoin’s brief rebound above $66,000 following U.S. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address has done little to shift the underlying market structure, with fresh analysis from Coinbase Institutional pointing to a critical support zone near $60,000 that, if broken, could trigger accelerated selling.

The combination of options market dynamics and on-chain data suggests the path of least resistance remains lower, with any sustained recovery likely requiring a reclaim of $82,000, a level that currently stands as the first major hurdle to renewed upside momentum.

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Options Market Points to Accelerated Downside Risk

Coinbase Institutional’s latest Bitcoin playbook introduced gamma exposure (GEX) as a lens for understanding how options dealers influence price action. According to the firm, when dealers hold positive gamma, their hedging tends to stabilize prices, selling into strength and buying into weakness. Negative gamma has the opposite effect, forcing dealers to buy as prices rise and sell as they fall, amplifying trends.

The current configuration shows a pronounced negative gamma band concentrated in the $60,000 to $70,000 region, with positive gamma pockets forming higher up near $85,000 and $90,000. This structure, per Coinbase, carries a specific implication: downside momentum into the $60,000 area could accelerate rapidly, while any advance toward $90,000 would likely grind and consolidate rather than break out cleanly.

Dense support sits near $60,000 based on historical market structure and volume profiles, while $82,000 represents the first significant resistance band. According to Coinbase’s market watchers, if Bitcoin fails to hold above $82,000 on approach, the lack of stabilizing gamma in that region suggests resistance may hold. By contrast, a break below $60,000 would occur in a negative gamma environment, meaning selling could feed on itself as dealers hedge in the direction of the move.

On-Chain Data Confirms Defensive Regime

Coinbase’s options-derived outlook matches up with deteriorating on-chain fundamentals. Yesterday, analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that Realized Cap has declined for a second consecutive month, falling roughly $33 billion from its peak of $1.127 trillion in November 2025 to around $1.094 trillion. Furthermore, the 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change is still negative, signaling ongoing capital outflows.

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Separate data from Glassnode showed the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio falling below 1, meaning more BTC is being sold at a loss than at a profit. According to the analytics platform, such regimes have historically persisted for months before liquidity conditions improved.

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Meanwhile, sentiment tracker Santiment said on Wednesday that bullish commentary across X, Reddit, and Telegram has reached a four-week high following Trump’s State of the Union speech. However, the firm cautioned that elevated retail optimism and talk of a “bear cycle” ending have, in the past, coincided with stalled rallies.

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Zcash and MemeCore Soar by Double Digits, Bitcoin Touched $76K: Market Watch

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BTCUSD Chart March 17. Source: TradingView


In contrast, Pi Network’s native token continues to bleed out, dipping below $0.18 earlier today.

Bitcoin’s price resurgence that started shortly after the beginning of the war in the Middle East reached a new local peak earlier this morning at $76,000, where the asset faced some resistance.

Many altcoins have produced even more impressive gains, with ETH climbing above $2,300, and XRP touching $1.60. ZEC and M, alongside SIREN, FET, and HAS, have even soared by double digits.

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BTC Tapped $76K

After dipping to $65,600 last Monday, the bitcoin bulls took command of the overall market performance and pushed the asset toward $70,000 by Wednesday. Although it was stopped there at first after the US CPI numbers came out, the cryptocurrency was more persistent and broke above that level on Friday when it even jumped to a ten-day peak of $74,000.

It was stopped there and driven to just over $70,000 during the weekend as the latest developments on the US/Israel vs Iran front unfolded. Nevertheless, they went on the offensive once again as the business week began. In the span of less than 24 hours, the bulls initiated another major rally, driving bitcoin to $76,000 earlier this morning.

This became its highest price tag since early February. After gaining over $5,000 in a day, though, the asset was primed for a correction that pushed it to $74,000 as of press time. Its market cap is close to $1.480 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts continues to struggle below 57%.

BTCUSD Chart March 17. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD Chart March 17. Source: TradingView

ZEC, M on the Rise

Ethereum was stopped at $2,400 this morning, but still trades above $2,300 after a 2% daily increase. XRP sits at $1.50 after a similar pump, and it has surpassed BNB in terms of market cap. HYPE has reclaimed the $40 level after a 3.5% rise, while CC is above $0.15.

ZEC and M have stolen the show from the larger-cap alts, both surging by around 16% to $270 and $1.72, respectively. SIREN, FET, and HASH are up by double-digits as well from the lower caps.

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Pi Network’s PI has dumped again in the past 24 hours, losing 10% of value in a drop to $0.18 as of press time.

The total crypto market cap, though, has added $30 billion and is slightly above $2.6 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview March 17. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview March 17. Source: QuantifyCrypto

 

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Bitcoin Coils Below Six-Week Highs as Gold Stays Vulnerable at $5,000

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Bitcoin Coils Below Six-Week Highs as Gold Stays Vulnerable at $5,000

Bitcoin consolidated recent gains in the face of blanket skepticism over its rebound, while gold threatened to give up $5,000 support.

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $74,000 after Tuesday’s Wall Street open as skepticism increased over BTC price strength.

Key points:

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  • Bitcoin stalls after a trip to $76,000, with short-term targets including a retreat to $68,000.

  • Traders stand by the long-term bear market thesis for BTC/USD.

  • Gold continues to show weakness, risking the loss of $5,000 per ounce support.

Trader warns against “hyping up” BTC price move

Data from TradingView showed cooling BTC price volatility after a run to new six-week highs of $76,000 to start the daily candle.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This proved unsustainable as heavy resistance sent BTC/USD lower, leading to concerns of a fakeout for Telegram channel Technical Crypto Analyst.

“Bitcoin is trending upward inside a rising channel and approaching the $74K–$79K resistance zone; while structure remains bullish above the trendline, a rejection from current levels could trigger a pullback toward the $68K support area,” it wrote on the day.

BTC/USDT perpetual contract four-hour chart. Source: Technical Crypto Analyst on Telegram

Traders stayed wary, doubling down on existing doubts about the fate of Bitcoin’s relief rally.

“Still nothing on HTF that suggests the bear market has bottomed. No divs, no volume at lows, no reversal pattern, etc,” trader Roman wrote in his latest analysis on X, referring to higher time frames.

Roman argued that market participants were “hyping up” a comparatively modest uptick in price, and that history demanded a longer bear market.

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BTC/USDT one-week chart. Source: Roman/X

On the latter point, trader Jelle agreed, pointing to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level as a key price point.

“Every bear market has been shallower than the one before it – but all of them have happened well below the 0.618 retracement, after months of boring sideways PA,” he told X followers. 

“Even if we don’t get the usual drawdown, I’m pretty sure the boredom chop is coming. Patience.”

BTC/USD chart with Fibonacci retracement level. Source: Jelle/X

Analyst eyes Bitcoin “outperformance” versus gold

Macro conditions were cooler compared to the start of the week. US stocks continued a modest rebound, while WTI crude oil remained below the $100 per barrel mark.

Related: Bitcoin sparks ‘bull trap’ warning after BTC price rejects at $76K

Gold, however, teased a breakdown from $5,000 support, retesting that level for the third consecutive day.

XAU/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Calls for Bitcoin to steal the spotlight from the precious metal thus grew louder.

“Stand by for the outperformance of the decade,” crypto analyst James Easton commented on the weekly BTC/XAU chart.

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BTC/XAU one-week chart. Source: James Easton/X