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Bitcoin Dips Below $72K as Data Warns ‘Rules Have Quietly Changed’

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Bitcoin Loses Long-Term Support, Tanking to $73K as Short-Term Holders Capitulate


Despite reduced miner selling, Bitcoin demand is yet to respond.

Bitcoin was mostly stable on Wednesday at $74,000 before it started to lose value gradually, dipping below $72,000 minutes ago.

And while supply pressure has eased significantly, demand remains muted as data revealed that “the rules of the game have quietly changed.”

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Direction Still Unclear

In its latest report, CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin’s supply-side activity has entered a subdued phase, while demand has yet to respond similarly. The MVRV Ratio, which compares market value to realized value, currently stands at 1.3, placing it just above the accumulation zone and indicating a minimal speculative premium.

This level means that Bitcoin is trading close to its aggregate cost basis, and reflects a reset phase rather than confirming either a market bottom or a recovery trend. On the supply side, miner behavior provides additional context. During the sharp price decline in early February, miner outflows climbed to almost 28,000 BTC, as selling pressure rose.

However, as prices stabilized and began to recover, outflows declined significantly, reaching almost 6,800 BTC by mid-March. Interestingly, this was the lowest level observed in the measured period.

Additionally, the Puell Multiple, currently around 0.69, further aligned with this trend, demonstrating that miners are operating within a post-halving normalization range without signs of financial stress or excessive profit-taking, and without urgency to increase supply in the market.

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Beyond Old Patterns

Despite this muted supply activity, other structural factors remain relevant. For instance, SoSoValue recorded a steady 7-day non-stop inflow from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. CryptoQuant also pointed to increasing adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset by institutional treasuries, and its gradual acceptance at the nation-state level, which may have contributed to elevating the cycle’s price floor compared to previous market cycles.

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It is also important to note that the MVRV Ratio has not fallen below 1.0, a level which is historically associated with deeper corrections. This deviation implies that traditional cycle patterns, including revisits to lower valuation zones, may not occur in the same manner.

“For that reason, on-chain accumulation patterns, institutional flows, and miner behavior all warrant closer attention than usual, because the signals may look familiar while the rules of the game have quietly changed.”

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Crypto World

Democrats Question CFTC Chair on Insider Trading in Prediction Markets

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Government, CFTC, Trading, Prediction Markets

The seven House members may have affirmed the commission‘s authority over prediction markets, but asked questions about its inaction on insider trading.

Seven members of the US House of Representatives sent a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig, asking for information on the agency’s inaction on insider trading on prediction markets and event contracts related to war and conflicts.

In a Monday letter, the seven US lawmakers said that the CFTC had the authority under the Commodities Exchange Act “to apply its rules and regulations for the purpose of preventing evasion of the [act’s] underlying swap provisions.” The statement signaled that the representatives affirmed Selig’s position that the commission had jurisdiction over prediction markets.

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However, the House members expressed concerns about how the CFTC was policing “morally obscene” event contracts, including those on US military actions in Iran and Venezuela — in those cases, there were suspicious trades related to the timing and outcomes of US military involvement. 

“Such corrupt trades deserve swift and decisive oversight,” said the letter. “Allowing these contracts to persist raises troubling concerns about the Commission’s desire and capacity to fulfill a global regulatory role.”

Government, CFTC, Trading, Prediction Markets
Source: Representative Seth Moulton

The legal battles over regulating prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are being waged both at a federal and state level. Several US state gaming authorities have filed lawsuits alleging that the companies are illegally offering sports bets, while the CFTC, under Selig, claims that the event contracts on the platform amount to swaps and fall under its federal regulations.

The seven House members requested that Selig respond to their six questions by April 15.

Related: Polymarket bags 97% of onchain prediction market fees after pricing overhaul

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In one of the most recent legal decisions, the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit affirmed a lower court ruling blocking New Jersey gaming authorities from filing enforcement actions against Kalshi. Two out of three circuit judges said that the company had a ”reasonable chance of success” in arguing that federal commodities laws preempted state authorities.

CFTC enforcement director says agency is “watching” for insider trading

The Monday letter followed CFTC enforcement director David Miller responding to concerns over insider trading, which has also resulted in legislation proposed by Democrats. According to Miller, the commission would only prosecute instances “against those who tip or trade with misappropriated information,” but not dedicate resources to “trivial” cases.

Magazine: All 21 million Bitcoin is at risk from quantum computers

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