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Bitcoin price prediction as Coinbase Premium flips positive

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Bitcoin price prediction as Coinbase BTC Premium flips positive for the first time in 40 days - 1

Bitcoin price is attempting a recovery near $65,000 as the Coinbase Premium turns positive despite recent exchange-traded fund outflows.

Summary

  • Bitcoin price prediction leans towards trend reversal as the Coinbase Premium flips positive.
  • The metric indicates strong U.S. demand returning after recent ETF outflows.
  • Price must reclaim key resistance to confirm a stronger recovery.

Bitcoin was trading at $65,907 at press time, up 3.4% in the last 24 hours. The move follows a drop to $62,900 within the past week, where buyers stepped in.

Even with the bounce, Bitcoin (BTC) is still down 24% over the past month and about 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,050.

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Trading activity increased during the recovery. Spot volume reached $46 billion, up 22% day over day. In derivatives markets, CoinGlass data shows futures volume up 6.2% to $74.8 billion, while open interest slipped 0.1% to $43.9 billion.

This suggests some traders are closing positions rather than adding aggressive leverage.

Coinbase premium turns positive 

On Feb. 25, the Coinbase Premium Index turned positive for the first time in 40 days, hitting 0.0525%, according to CoinGlass.

The index measures the price difference between Coinbase and global exchanges. A positive reading means Bitcoin trades slightly higher on Coinbase, which often reflects stronger U.S. demand.

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This shift comes at a time when U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded heavy outflows, with roughly $3.8 billion exiting recently. That contrast is important. While ETFs have seen capital leave, the premium suggests some U.S. buyers are stepping back in through exchange flows.

In past cycles, sustained positive premiums have aligned with accumulation phases and relief rallies. However, a single flip does not confirm a trend change. Traders will watch if the premium widens and holds over several sessions.

Bitcoin price prediction: Is the trend reversing?

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after a sharp corrective phase. On the daily chart, price is still trading below its short-term trend pivot near the mid-Bollinger band around the high -$67,000 area.

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That zone now acts as the line that separates a relief bounce from a stronger recovery attempt.

Bitcoin price prediction as Coinbase BTC Premium flips positive for the first time in 40 days - 1
Bitcoin daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

Momentum indicators show improvement from oversold conditions, with the relative strength index climbing from sub-30 levels earlier in February. Bulls have not yet completely taken back control, though, as the RSI is still below the midpoint. 

The recovery might reach the low -$70,000 area if the Coinbase Premium holds positive and Bitcoin breaks through the mid-band resistance with growing spot volume. A move into that zone would shift short-term structure and increase confidence that the trend has reversed.

On the other hand, failure to reclaim resistance would keep the price vulnerable to another pullback toward the mid -$64,000 area. A break below that support would raise the risk of a deeper move toward $60,000.

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Crypto World

Arizona AG Files Charges against Kalshi over ‘Illegal Gambling‘

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Law, Arizona, Court, Crimes, Kalshi, Prediction Markets

Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes announced that her office filed gambling and related criminal charges against the companies behind prediction markets platform Kalshi.

In a Tuesday notice, Mayes said that the charges alleged that Kalshi operated an “illegal gambling business in Arizona without a license” and offered election wagering, in violation of state laws. Arizona authorities alleged that Kalshi’s prediction markets platform allowed state residents to bet on event contracts related to sports and state and federal elections. 

“Kalshi may brand itself as a ‘prediction market,’ but what it’s actually doing is running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law,” said Mayes. “No company gets to decide for itself which laws to follow.”

Law, Arizona, Court, Crimes, Kalshi, Prediction Markets
Source: Arizona Attorney General’s Office

According to the AG’s office, the charges followed Kalshi filing its own lawsuit against Arizona “preemptively in an attempt to avoid accountability under Arizona law.” State authorities have filed similar lawsuits against the companies of prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Related: Kalshi suffers court loss in Ohio over sports betting lawsuit

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“Sadly, a state can file criminal charges on paper-thin arguments,” a Kalshi spokesperson told Cointelegraph. “States like Arizona want to individually regulate a nationwide financial exchange, and are trying every trick in the book to do it. As other courts have recognized and the CFTC affirms, Kalshi is subject to federal jurisdiction. It’s different from what sportsbooks and casinos offer their customers, and it should not be overseen by a patchwork of inconsistent state laws.”

Last week, an Ohio judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction in a similar case against state authorities, saying that the company had failed to show that the sports event contracts available on the platform were subject to the “exclusive jurisdiction” of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, in February, a federal judge in Tennessee blocked state authorities from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi.

CFTC chair backs “exclusive authority” over prediction markets

Now the sole commissioner on the CFTC since acting chair Caroline Pham stepped down in December, Chair Michael Selig has publicly said that the federal regulator would defend prediction market platforms from state-level lawsuits.

Last week, Selig opened a proposed rule up to public comment on how the Commodity Exchange Act would apply to prediction markets, potentially changing how the agency approaches regulation and enforcement in the future.

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