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BitMine Stock Price Faces 60% Drop Despite Citigroup Support

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BitMine's Bearish Pattern

The BitMine stock price has started showing early signs of recovery. BMNR rose 6% on Feb. 13 before closing and is up 7.32% over the past five days. This rebound comes even as Ethereum, which BitMine closely tracks due to its ETH treasury exposure, has fallen 3.3% over the past week. This divergence suggests BitMine’s stock price may be trying to catch up.

BMNR charts also show that this rebound may be weak despite big players like Citigroup increasing BMNR holdings quarter-on-quarter. The bearish structure is still active, and the next few trading sessions could decide whether BitMine continues recovering or enters another major drop.

Bear Flag Structure Shows Recovery Attempt — But Breakdown Risk Remains

The BitMine stock price has been trading inside a bear flag pattern since early February. A bear flag forms after a sharp decline, followed by a temporary upward consolidation. This pattern often leads to another drop if buyers fail to fully regain control.

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Between Dec. 10, 2025, and Feb. 5, 2026, BitMine’s stock price fell nearly 60%. This steep drop created the “pole” phase of the pattern. Since Feb. 5, the stock has rebounded about 26%, forming a bear “flag” pattern, which represents a recovery attempt.

BitMine's Bearish Pattern
BitMine’s Bearish Pattern: TradingView

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However, this recovery remains inside the bearish structure. Unless the stock breaks above key resistance levels, this rebound could simply be a temporary pause before another decline.

If the bear flag confirms, BitMine’s stock price could fall by nearly a 60% drop from the lower trendline breach point. This raises a critical question. If the BitMine stock price is recovering, why does the breakdown risk still remain high?

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The answer becomes clearer when looking at momentum indicators.

Hidden Bearish Divergence Shows BMNR Sellers Still Maintain Control

Momentum analysis using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of underlying weakness. RSI is an indicator that measures buying and selling strength on a scale from 0 to 100. When RSI rises while price struggles, it can signal weakening buyer strength.

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The BitMine stock price formed a hidden bearish divergence between Nov. 18, 2025, and Feb. 9, 2026. During this period, the price created a lower high, while RSI formed a higher high. This pattern typically signals that sellers remain in control and further downside may follow.

After this divergence appeared, BitMine’s stock price dropped by over 14%.

Now, a similar setup appears to be forming again. RSI has started rising, but the price still remains below key resistance near $21.57. If the stock fails to break above this level, another bearish divergence could confirm.

RSI Divergence Highlights Risk
RSI Divergence Highlights Risk: TradingView

This would increase the probability of a breakdown from the bear flag pattern. However, momentum alone does not fully explain price direction. Capital flow data provides another important clue.

Capital Flow Remains Weak Despite Institutional Buying

Institutional interest in BitMine has increased significantly. Citigroup raised its ownership stake by over 540%, while firms like BlackRock and BNY Mellon also expanded their exposure. Normally, such buying would support price growth.

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The Fintel snapshot shows Citigroup’s addition but also highlights several BMNR dumps by firms like Baird Financial, Resources Investment Advisors, and more, which can be alarming to the price.

Institutional BMNR Holdings
Institutional BMNR Holdings: Fintel

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows a similar picture. CMF measures whether large investors are putting money into or taking money out of an asset. When CMF stays below zero, it signals that overall capital is still leaving the asset.

CMF Still Weak
CMF Still Weak: TradingView

BitMine’s CMF has started rising gradually, showing that selling pressure is slowing. But the indicator remains below the zero line. This means total institutional buying has not yet fully reversed the broader selling trend. This creates a conflict. While some major firms are increasing exposure, overall, large-scale money flow remains cautious, as highlighted by the earlier snapshot.

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This explains why BitMine’s stock price recovery still appears weak.

Price Levels Now Decide Whether BitMine Stock Price Recovers or Breaks Down

The BitMine stock price now sits at a critical level. If BMNR breaks above resistance between $21.57 and $21.74, the bearish structure would weaken for now. This could allow the stock to rise toward $29.60 and potentially $34.03, provided ETH also gains strength.

Such a move would confirm that buyers have regained control. However, downside risk remains significant.

If the BMNR stock price falls below the $20.02 support level, the bear flag breakdown could begin. This may push the stock toward lower support levels at $15.05 and $11.22. A full breakdown could eventually send the stock toward $8.36.

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BMNR Price Analysis
BMNR Price Analysis: TradingView

For now, BitMine’s stock price sits at a turning point. Citigroup’s aggressive accumulation shows institutional confidence. But bearish momentum and weak capital inflows still limit recovery strength.

The next few trading sessions will likely decide whether Tom Lee’s BMNR follows institutional optimism higher or confirms the bearish breakdown pattern.

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Crypto World

Aave Unveils Aave Shield After $50M Token Swap Mishap

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Crypto Breaking News

Decentralized finance protocol Aave is moving to tighten protections after a dramatic interaction on the CoW Swap interface led to a roughly $50 million loss in a single trade. The proposed safeguard, still described as a forthcoming feature, aims to cap price impact on swaps executed through Aave’s own interface, reflecting ongoing concerns about liquidity fragmentation and the risks that automated market-making can pose in stressed markets. The incident centered on a trader who attempted to swap about $50.4 million worth of USDt for Aave’s native token through CoW Swap but received only around $36,500 of the token, underscoring the fragility of routing in an illiquid environment. A substantial portion of the loss was magnified by a Maximal Extractable Value bot that executed a sandwich sequence, capturing nearly $10 million in the process.

Key takeaways

  • Aave plans to deploy a feature called Aave Shield that blocks swaps with a price impact above 25% when using the Aave interface, addressing a recent large-value trade failure.
  • The high-stakes trade involved converting USDt for AAVE via CoW Swap, where liquidity gaps produced a final payout of only a fraction of the intended amount, illustrating liquidity fragmentation concerns.
  • A MEV bot executed a sandwich attack in the same event, contributing roughly $10 million to the total loss and highlighting incentive structures that attackers leverage in DeFi trades.
  • A user reportedly saw multiple warnings on the platform, including notes that a route might return less due to low liquidity or small order size, and explicitly confirmed a potential 100% value loss before finalizing the swap.
  • CoW DAO attributed the extreme price impact to liquidity deficiencies and several infrastructure failures, including an outdated gas limit that hindered better-priced quotes.

Tickers mentioned: $AAVE, $USDT

Price impact: Negative — the trade exceeded a 25% price-improvement threshold, contributing to a loss of about $50 million and underscoring liquidity-driven risk in cross-exchange routing.

Market context: The episode underscores ongoing fragility in DeFi trading infrastructure amid liquidity fragmentation, MEV-driven risks, and the need for clearer risk disclosures and guardrails as users navigate multiple on-chain venues.

Why it matters

In decentralized finance, liquidity is the lifeblood that enables large swaps to execute without slippage. When liquidity pockets are thin or misaligned, even sophisticated routing engines can deliver outcomes far from the expected fair value, especially on trades of tens of millions of dollars. The Aave Shield proposal signals a shift toward user protections that don’t necessarily rely on post-trade refunds or off-chain interventions. By setting a 25% price-impact guardrail, the protocol aims to prevent users from unintentionally triggering extreme slippage, a feature that could reduce the likelihood of catastrophic outcomes in high-volume trades conducted on Aave’s interface.

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The incident also spotlights the persistent incentives for attackers within DeFi ecosystems. A MEV bot earned an estimated $10 million through a sandwich attack tied to the same trade, illustrating how opportunistic front-running and optimization strategies can exploit routing inefficiencies. This reality reinforces the argument that security and risk controls in DeFi must address both the mechanics of on-chain order execution and the broader economic incentives that shape mempool activity and liquidity provisioning. For builders and investors, the event emphasizes the value of robust monitoring, greater transparency around routing logic, and the potential benefits of standardized safeguards that reduce the chance of outsized losses in complex transactions.

CoW DAO’s assessment adds nuance to the discussion by pointing to infrastructure gaps, not just liquidity depth. It noted that an outdated gas limit in a solver used by CoW Swap hindered better-priced quotes from being submitted, leaving users with inferior options. A possible mempool leak was also discussed as a contributing factor to the outsized quote that informed the loss. The joint acknowledgment from Aave and CoW DAO that “not all issues are fully resolved” underscores the collaborative path ahead—fixes, audits, and perhaps new safeguards—needed to improve resilience in cross-ecosystem swaps that lean on multiple on-chain participants.

As the ecosystem matures, projects that overlap between lending protocols and decentralized exchanges increasingly rely on layered protections. Aave Shield, if implemented as described, would add a proactive defense rather than a reactive one, potentially reducing users’ exposure to price impact during volatile periods. The broader takeaway is that users must remain vigilant about routing expectations, price impact disclosures, and the liquidity conditions of the venues they choose for substantial trades. The episode serves as a litmus test for how DeFi platforms balance safety features with user autonomy, especially when dealing with high-value, cross-chain liquidity movements.

What to watch next

  • Deployment timeline for Aave Shield and its configurable toggle, with a focus on whether it will be opt-in by default and how users can adjust risk settings.
  • Formal updates from Aave and CoW DAO detailing findings from the incident and any roadmap shifts for liquidity provisioning, solver updates, or mempool protections.
  • Any governance actions or community discussions about routing heuristics, price impact thresholds, and UX warnings on swap interfaces.
  • Further investigations into MEV defense mechanisms and whether new protections integrate with CoW Swap’s routing logic or other DEX aggregators.
  • Monitoring of liquidity depth changes across major stablecoins and DeFi venues during periods of market stress to gauge resilience improvements.

Sources & verification

Aave Shield aims to curb high-impact swaps after a $50 million loss

Aave Shield is designed to block swaps with a price impact above a defined threshold for trades conducted via the Aave interface. The feature, described in a post-mortem by the team, represents an attempt to introduce a guardrail before trades are signed, reducing the likelihood that users are exposed to extreme slippage in low-liquidity scenarios. The proposed guardrail is anchored to a 25% price impact limit and would be activated automatically for standard route options, with the option for users to disable Shield if they accept higher risk channels. The incident that prompted the plan involved a trader who moved USDt to AAVE on CoW Swap and encountered a dramatic discrepancy between expected and actual takedown values, highlighting how quickly liquidity conditions can shift in high-value trades.

The interaction underscores a broader challenge for DeFi—balancing user freedom with protective barriers that do not stifle legitimate, sophisticated trading strategies. While shield features cannot eliminate all forms of risk, they can help prevent traders from signing away too much value in a moment of liquidity stress, potentially safeguarding both retail and institutional participants. The ongoing collaboration between Aave and CoW DAO signals an intent to address root causes—ranging from liquidity provisioning to on-chain quote accuracy and gas-limit governance—that contribute to extreme price disclosures in real-world trades.

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As the ecosystem continues to adapt, the industry will watch closely how these protections perform in live markets, especially during periods of volatility. If Aave Shield proves effective, it could set a precedent for more proactive risk controls across DeFi interfaces, encouraging exchanges and aggregators to refine their pricing models and warning systems. For users, the episode reinforces the importance of reading on-screen risk disclosures, understanding the consequences of high-impact routes, and considering the broader liquidity landscape when executing multi-million-dollar swaps.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Aave to Roll Out Aave Shield After $50M User Loss Incident

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Aave to Roll Out Aave Shield After $50M User Loss Incident

Decentralized finance protocol Aave said it is introducing a new feature to block swaps with a price impact above 25% after a user lost $50 million in a trade while interacting with Aave’s interface last week. 

“We are soon deploying a new feature, Aave Shield, which provides more protections for users who use the swap feature in the Aave interface aave.com,” Aave said in a post-mortem statement on Saturday.

Aave said users would need to manually disable the Aave Shield protection feature to proceed with high-risk trades.

The incident occurred on Thursday, when the user went to convert $50.4 million worth of USDt (USDT) for Aave (AAVE) via decentralized exchange CoW Swap, but received only $36,500 worth of Aave due to a lack of liquidity and other infrastructure failures, generating a loss of just over $50 million. 

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Part of this loss was also a result of a Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) bot that executed a sandwich attack on the user, profiting nearly $10 million.

User ignored multiple warning signs

Aave said the user signed the transaction despite multiple warnings appearing on the platform’s interface. 

This included alerts about a “high price impact” and a notice stating the route might return less due to low liquidity or small order size. 

The user also ticked a confirmation box stating, “I confirm the swap with a potential 100% value loss,” Aave said. 

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What the user would have seen on Aave’s interface before signing the transaction. Source: Aave

Incident shows DeFi still needs work: CoW DAO 

While Aave and CoW DAO, the team behind CoW Swap, said poor liquidity led to the “extreme price impact,” CoW DAO added that multiple infrastructure failures also played a role.

CoW DAO said a solver — a third-party service that finds the best way to do a trade — was affected by an outdated gas limit, which blocked better-priced quotes and left only a much worse option for the user to consider.