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BTC is rallying, but caution warranted

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BTC is rallying, but caution warranted

Bitcoin has pulled above $70,000 on news of the Iran ceasefire, but the rally is, for now, fairly cautious.

There may be good reasons for that.

One of the more reliable signals for gauging where bitcoin may be headed comes from tracking margin long positions on Bitfinex. These positions, which reflect bullish bets funded with borrowed capital, still remain elevated at 80,057 BTC, around the highest level in more than two years, according to TradingView data.

The data suggests these long positions are not being unwound despite the price being more than 15% higher since bottoming at $60,000 two months ago. This suggests that, in aggregate, market participants may not view the recent rally as sufficient confirmation that risks have fully subsided.

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Historically, Bitfinex margin long positions have functioned as a contrarian indicator. They tend to build during periods of market stress and are reduced as prices rise. For example, long positions were sharply reduced near local bottoms during the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, when bitcoin fell to $49,000, and again in April 2025 amid tariff tensions under President Trump, when bitcoin dropped to $76,000.

Muted U.S. institutional demand

At the same time, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index is fluctuating between a premium and a discount, pointing to a lack of consistent buying pressure from U.S. investors.

The index, which tracks the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase and the broader global market, is often used as a proxy for institutional demand.
Its indecisive positioning suggests that U.S. flows are not strongly supporting the rally, raising questions about the move’s sustainability.

Muted rally for crypto stocks

Underscoring the caution, crypto-related stocks are all firmly in the green on Wednesday, but the gains are rather modest given how far they’ve been punished previously.

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Among the names: Coinbase (COIN) is up 1.5%, Circle (CRCL) 0.6%, Galaxy Digital (GLXY) 0.6% and Strategy (MSTR) 3%.

Broader risk markets are showing no such caution: the Nasdaq is higher by 2.5% and S&P 500 by 2%.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Price Targets $90K as Bulls Buy BTC Aggressively on Binance

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Bitcoin Price Targets $90K as Bulls Buy BTC Aggressively on Binance

Market analysts say Bitcoin’s (BTC) is building up after its 7% rally above $72,000 on Tuesday, with bulls eyeing further gains to $90,000 amid improving macro sentiment. 

Key takeaways:

  • BTC price builds a bullish structure after reclaiming $72,000, as a symmetrical triangle breakout targets $90,000.

  • Binance taker buy volume exploded by $2.7 billion in two hours after the US-Iran ceasefire, signaling strong aggressive buying by bulls.

BTC price “builds a bullish structure”

Bitcoin’s latest rally saw it reclaim key support areas, including the $68,000 zone where the 200-week exponential moving average and the 50-day simple moving average converge. 

Related: Bitcoin wallets absorb 4.37M BTC as network activity flips to ‘bull phase’

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“Bitcoin breaks through the crucial $71K level and builds a bullish structure,” MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in a post on Wednesday.

The analyst further pointed out that the next crucial resistance zone is $80,000 and that holding the support at $70,000 was required to secure the recovery toward $90,000, as shown in the chart below.

“That would strengthen the entire theory of higher lows, higher highs, and continue the momentum upwards.”

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: X/Michael van de Poppe

From a technical perspective, BTC/USD is validating a symmetrical triangle after breaking above its upper trend line at $70,000 on Tuesday. 

A daily candlestick close above this level would confirm the breakout, with the next line of resistance being the $76,000 range high.

Above that, bulls will have to contend with resistance at $80,000 before pushing Bitcoin price toward the measured target of the triangle at $90,000, 25% above the current price.

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BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The daily relative strength index, or RSI, has increased to 56 from oversold conditions at 15 reached on Feb. 6, suggesting increasing bullish momentum.

As Cointelegraph reported, maintaining above $69,500 in the near term is crucial for the bulls to sustain the recovery.

Bitcoin bulls are “buying aggressively”

Bullish sentiment could be returning to Bitcoin as a key metric from Binance, the largest crypto exchange by trading volume, shows that buyers are starting to dominate the platform’s volumes.

The Binance taker buy volume, which measures the total dollar amount of aggressive buy orders (market buys) placed by traders on Binance futures, increased by $2.7 billion within two hours following the US and Iran ceasefire agreement on Tuesday

“Within just two hours, during and after the announcement, $1.2B and $1.5B ($2.7B) in taker buy volume appeared on derivatives markets,” CryptoQuant contributor DarkFost said in an April 8 note, adding:

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“This sudden improvement in visibility allows investors to reposition in the short term, and sends a constructive signal for Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin taker buy volume on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

This increased flow of liquidity into Binance was also reinforced by net taker volume, which measures the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in derivatives markets.

The Binance Bitcoin cumulative test taker volume has “climbed to $1.02 billion, its highest level since March 17, signaling a sharp return of aggressive buying in Bitcoin,” CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha said, adding:

“This suggests Binance traders were buying aggressively into improving macro sentiment, not just reacting to a crypto-specific headline.”

Bitcoin Binance net taker volume. Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium index has flipped positive, pointing to a return in demand from US investors, following a long stretch of negative readings.

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index