Crypto World
David Einhorn says the Fed will cut ‘substantially more’ than two times. So he’s betting big on gold
Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn anticipates the Federal Reserve will issue more interest rate cuts this year than what’s being anticipated and that’s giving him greater confidence in his gold bet.
While rate cut expectations diminished a bit Wednesday following the much better-than-expected January jobs report, traders are still currently pricing in a more than 88% chance that the central bank will make two quarter percentage point cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
But Einhorn said that the market viewing the latest jobs figures as a reason not to cut is “wrong.” In fact, he thinks the rate cuts number could be higher than that, as he expects Kevin Warsh – President Donald Trump’s pick to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair – is going to be able to persuade the committee to do so.
“If we have 4% or 5% inflation, sure, then he won’t be able to persuade people, but otherwise he’s going to argue productivity,” Einhorn said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” to Sara Eisen on Wednesday, adding that Warsh, in his view, is going to take the position of cutting “even if the economy is running hot.”
“I think by the time we get to the end of the year, it’s going to be substantially more than two cuts,” he continued.
The hedge fund manager also owns gold, which sold off at the end of last month after Trump announced Warsh as his nominee for Fed chair, as the move eased anxieties on Wall Street surrounding Fed independence.
The yellow metal – typically viewed as an inflation hedge – has since seen some recovery, with gold futures being up more than 17% this year. That’s after it surged more than 60% in 2025 amid threats to central bank independence as well as heightened geopolitical tensions and unstable trade policy. Since 2024, it’s surged more than 120%.
Gold futures prices since 2024
Einhorn — who gained notoriety in 2008, when he bet against Lehman Brothers at the Sohn Investment Conference just months before the investment bank declared bankruptcy — pointed out that gold has actually gone up over the past couple years as a result of “becoming the reserve asset” to own among central banks around the world.
“U.S. trade policy is very unstable, and it’s causing other countries to say we want to settle our trade in something other than U.S. dollars,” he said.
In the long term, he said that a reason to own gold is due to the fact that the current relationship between our fiscal and monetary policies “don’t make any sense.” He also said that other major developed currencies around the world are “as bad or worse” than the U.S. The U.S. dollar suffered its biggest single-day drop since April 2025 last month after Trump said he wasn’t concerned about the currency’s recent weakness.
“There are some issues that sometime over the next number of years could play out with some of the major currencies,” he said.
Deeming betting on more cuts as “one of the best trades out there right now,” Einhorn said he was also long futures on SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate), which essentially is a bet that short-term rates will continue to go lower.
US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig has voiced support for prediction markets paired with blockchain technology, claiming they could become powerful tools for discovering truth.
Speaking at the FIA Global Cleared Markets Conference in Boca Raton, Florida, on Monday, Selig argued that prediction markets, also known as event contracts, can provide valuable signals about future events when participants put money behind their views, describing well-functioning markets as “truth machines.”
“When participants express views on future events — and back those views with capital — they create accountability, transparency and information,” Selig said. He added that highly liquid prediction markets often produce signals that the public increasingly sees as more reliable than traditional opinion polls.
“The reality is that prediction market platforms are now viewed by the public as more accurate than political polls,” Selig claimed, pointing to the 2024 US presidential election as an example where market pricing captured the scale of the outcome.
Related: Kalshi sued over Khamenei prediction market ‘death carveout’
US states take legal action against prediction markets
Selig’s backing of prediction markets comes as several US states have taken legal or regulatory action against these platforms, arguing that their event-based contracts resemble unlicensed gambling.
Last week, two US federal court rulings allowed Nevada regulators to continue pursuing legal action against prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. In February, the state sued Kalshi after the prediction market company lost its court challenge to stop the state’s regulator from taking action over its sports prediction markets.
Massachusetts has also taken action, filing a lawsuit against Kalshi over sports prediction contracts offered to residents. Meanwhile, Connecticut regulators issued cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi and Robinhood, ordering them to stop offering certain event contracts tied to sports outcomes.
The CFTC chair said the agency plans to provide clearer rules for how event contracts can be listed and traded under the regulator’s framework. He said staff have been directed to draft guidance outlining how these markets should operate while remaining compliant with existing derivatives laws.
Related: Kalshi, Polymarket eye $20B valuations in potential fundraising: WSJ
CFTC chair plans clearer crypto asset classification
Selig also said the CFTC plans to pursue a clearer classification framework for crypto assets and provide guidance on how rules apply to developers of non-custodial software such as digital wallets and decentralized finance applications.
He maintained that the agency should focus on clear rulemaking instead of ambiguity and enforcement-first policy, claiming that “America is now the crypto capital of the world.”
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author
BNB price is rallying as BNB Chain quietly becomes the main retail rail for dollar stablecoins, turning BNB into an equity‑like bet on parallel money in crisis economies.
Summary
- BNB Chain now processes about 40% of global stablecoin transfers, with 82% under $1,000, making it look more like a retail payments rail than a trading venue.
- Data from crisis economies shows stablecoins acting as parallel dollars for workers and merchants, with Latin American stablecoin flows jumping to roughly $27 billion by 2024.
- BNB increasingly trades like equity in this infrastructure, tied to fee throughput and rising regulatory and geopolitical risk around dollar stablecoins.
BNB Chain (BNB) price is quietly gaining steam as it becomes the core retail plumbing of the dollarized crypto economy. Data cited by Forbes shows that BNB Chain now handles about 40% of global stablecoin transactions by number, with 82% of transfers under $1,000 and 99% below $10,000 – a profile that looks less like a trading venue and more like a payments network for workers, merchants and remittance flows in stressed economies.
Stablecoins as parallel money on BNB
In a recent Forbes analysis on crisis economies, researcher Boaz Sobrado writes that stablecoins have “subtly emerged as alternative currencies in many developing nations,” with over 99.9% of transactions denominated in dollars and often used where “local currencies fail to provide a dependable store of value.” On BNB Chain specifically, he notes that “82% of transfers are under $1,000, and 99% are below $10,000,” adding that transactions “typically cost around $0.05” – cheaper than a bus ride to the nearest bank branch in many markets. The same piece highlights that Latin American stablecoin transactions surged ninefold from 2021 to 2024 to roughly $27 billion, underscoring how quickly these rails are becoming part of everyday economic life.
That microstructure matters at the macro level. Separate Forbes and Bloomberg data put total stablecoin transaction volume at about $33 trillion in 2025, up more than 70% year‑on‑year and now rivaling or surpassing the combined throughput of Visa and Mastercard. Crucially, volumes more than doubled while overall stablecoin supply grew less than 50%, a dynamic described as a “transition from speculation to utility” as the same stock of digital dollars turns over faster in real‑world payments.
Market structure and BNB’s role
For BNB, the token that secures and pays for activity on BNB Chain, this is turning into a structural story about fee flows and political risk, not just DeFi yields. The Forbes report quotes BNB Chain growth lead Nina describing their user base as dominated by “micro and retail” – “normies” – and notes that two‑thirds of merchant payments originate from exchange accounts, with more than half of emerging‑market users first touching crypto through Binance or OKX. That concentration effectively gives a small cluster of platforms and one chain disproportionate influence over how digitized dollars move through vulnerable economies.
At press time, BNB trades around $645 over the past 24 hours, up roughly 3%, while Bitcoin sits near $70,400, gaining about 3.5%, and Ethereum changes hands close to $2,060 with a near‑3% daily rise, all denominated in $ and reflecting a broader bid into long‑duration, liquidity‑sensitive risk assets. As stablecoins harden into parallel currencies and BNB Chain emerges as a dominant retail rail, BNB increasingly becomes an equity‑like bet on that infrastructure – exposed not only to fee throughput and user growth, but also to the regulatory and geopolitical scrutiny that inevitably follows control over how digital dollars circulate.
The Jito Foundation has acquired SolanaFloor, a data and journalism platform covering the Solana ecosystem, and plans to relaunch the site after it shut down earlier this year following a security breach at its parent organization.
The platform went offline in February after its parent company, Step Finance, wound down operations following a treasury wallet breach. Before shutting down, SolanaFloor provided ecosystem news, research and onchain analytics tracking projects and market activity across the Solana network.
Under the deal, SolanaFloor will resume operations under the Jito Foundation and continue publishing coverage of developments across the Solana ecosystem, according to a company press release shared with Cointelegraph.
Awais Afzal, editor at SolanaFloor, said the platform’s existing editorial team has been absorbed as part of the acquisition and will remain in place following the relaunch. He told Cointelegraph that SolanaFloor’s day-to-day editorial operations will be conducted independently from the Jito Foundation.
Jito Foundation is a Solana ecosystem organization that supports development around the Jito protocol, which focuses on liquid staking and block-building infrastructure. The foundation coordinates grants, partnerships and other initiatives intended to support activity across the Solana network.
Additional details about SolanaFloor’s editorial structure, team and commercial offerings are expected to be shared following the relaunch. Jito Foundation did not disclose the financial terms of the deal.
Related: Solana ETFs still hold ‘impressive numbers’ even as token dives 57%
Step Finance hack forced shutdown of multiple Solana projects
Step Finance announced in February that it would shut down operations after a treasury wallet breach in late January drained roughly $40 million in Solana (SOL).
The Solana DeFi aggregator said the closure would also extend to several affiliated platforms, including SolanaFloor and the lending and yield protocol Remora Markets.
Step Finance reported the breach on Jan. 31 and said it had brought in cybersecurity firms to investigate the incident. Blockchain security company CertiK later reported that more than 261,854 Solana (SOL) tokens were unstaked and transferred during the attack.
Security breaches remain a challenge across the crypto industry. A December report from blockchain analytics company Chainalysis estimated that hackers stole about $3.4 billion in cryptocurrency in 2025.
Large attacks accounted for a significant share of those losses. Chainalysis said just three incidents in 2025 were responsible for around 69% of the total funds stolen during the year, including a $1.4 billion breach of the crypto exchange Bybit.
According to the report, North Korean hacking groups were behind $2.02 billion in stolen cryptocurrency during the year, frequently using tactics such as placing covert IT workers inside crypto projects.
Magazine: ‘If you want to be great, make enemies’: Solana economist Max Resnick
Republicans in the US Congress want to ban any possibility of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). To do so, they’re threatening progress on a bipartisan housing bill.
A group of Republican members of the US House of Representatives wrote a letter dated March 6, expressing the “dire need to prohibit a Central Bank Digital Currency from ever happening in the United States.”
The letter cited familiar arguments claiming a CBDC would threaten financial privacy and grant the US Federal Reserve unprecedented financial surveillance powers.
Critics question why Republicans are so eager to ban a CBDC, particularly as other global economic centers like the European Union and China develop their own digital forms of money. Still, the Republicans are ready to pull support from a bipartisan housing bill to get their way.
Republicans hang CBDC ban on 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act
Twenty-eight Republican representatives signed a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson. In it, they noted that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, a bill making its way through the Senate Banking Committee, contained a provision that would ban CBDCs.
But the lawmakers said it wasn’t strong enough. The ban would sunset in 2030, they noted, adding that the new language does not prohibit the Fed from studying a CBDC, which a bill introduced last year by Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer sought to block.
The representatives demanded that both provisions be removed in the Senate before the bill reaches the House, claiming that a “prohibition on a Central Bank Digital Currency must be permanent.” If not, they threatened the success of the housing bill:
Otherwise, we will do everything to ensure that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act is dead-on arrival.”
Republican Representative Anna Paulina Luna said, “This will probably get nasty so I am telling everyone now. We would appreciate your air support on this.”
This move puts a still-niche and relatively unknown monetary question onto a bill that would at least nominally address concerns over housing affordability in the US.
According to a June 2025 survey from fintech firm Aevi, 61% of Americans haven’t even heard of a CBDC. The number is even higher among older respondents, with over 70% of 55- to 64-year-olds having never heard of one.
Meanwhile, housing costs in the US are getting higher. Data from the Fed and the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index collated by LongtermTrends shows that a typical single-family home currently costs 7.14 times the median annual household income.
This is the highest home price-to-median household income ratio on record going back to the late 1940s, higher than at the height of the 2006 housing bubble.
Part of this is due to a supply squeeze. Homebuilding crashed after the 2008 financial crisis. This has continued to decline during the second Trump administration.
Related: US Bitcoin reserve still has no plan to stack sats
The new, bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act contains several proposals to make building new housing easier and therefore cheaper. This includes expedited environmental reviews and increased Federal Housing Administration family loan limits.
“The package includes the vast majority of the Senate’s unanimously supported ROAD to Housing Act, incorporates bipartisan housing ideas from the House, and takes a good first step to rein in corporate landlords that are squeezing families out of homeownership,” Senator Elizabeth Warren said in a statement.
The presidential administration has already signaled its support of the bill, including a ban on CBDCs.
Holding up a housing affordability bill over a CBDC, something voters know very little about, may not play well, especially as President Donald Trump and Congress slip in the polls and the economy remains a central concern.
Related: Crypto turnaround at Fed as Kraken scores account and Trump nominee goes to Senate
Does the US need a CBDC to ensure the dollar stays on top?
Republicans claim to be concerned about the privacy implications of a CBDC, and they aren’t alone. Regarding the digital euro, the European Central Bank’s planned CBDC, Luxembourg-based economist Elisabeth Krecké said that it’s unclear how the tradeoff between privacy and functionality could be managed.
“The digital euro drafters simply assert that Europe’s legal framework offers the ‘strongest privacy protections in the world,’” she said. “The real question is: What happens to the data in the end? Who will have access to it and, ultimately, who will control it?”
Democrats are far less skeptical of a CBDC than their Republican colleagues. Particularly as, according to Krecké, over 90% of the world’s central banks are investigating the technology.
In a criticism of Emmer’s early efforts to ban a CBDC, Congresswoman Maxine Waters said in a statement, ”When Republicans raise concerns about CBDCs they are talking about retail CBDCs, but because they are so averse to knowledge and studying things, they have no idea that their bill blocks research into other forms of digitizing the dollar that could truly cut costs for people.”
She added that with a functional and operating digital currency, China could provide an attractive alternative to the dollar as the global reserve currency.
Congress is still hammering out the details of the CLARITY Act, the long-awaited crypto framework bill, and now the future of a CBDC is being balanced with more affordable housing ahead of a midterm election.
Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen
Mantle’s Aave-powered lending market smashed $1b in under three weeks, pushing DeFi TVL to record highs even as MNT trails flows in a classic TVL–price disconnect.
Summary
- Mantle’s Aave lending and borrowing market crossed $1 billion in total market size just 19 days after launch, while Mantle DeFi TVL hit a record above $755 million, up 66% in a week.
- Aave V3 on Mantle rapidly captured around 40% of network TVL, led by USDT and wrapped ETH deposits and backed by a six‑month incentive program funded from Mantle’s $4b+ community treasury.
- Despite surging TVL and volumes, MNT underperformed while AAVE rallied, with analysts flagging a TVL–price disconnect as traders still treat MNT as high‑beta risk in a choppy BTC and ETH market.
Mantle’s (MNT) Aave (AAVE) integration has turned a niche Ethereum (ETH) layer‑2 into one of the fastest‑growing DeFi distribution layers in the market, with numbers big enough that macro desks can no longer ignore them. In just 19 days since launch, the Mantle x Aave lending and borrowing market has surpassed $1 billion in total market size, while Mantle’s broader DeFi TVL has climbed to an all‑time high above $755 million, a 66% jump in a single week.
According to a March 2 press release, the $1 billion threshold was breached “following a record‑breaking launch of $800 million on Friday,” and a weekend that saw “over $200 million in organic inflows,” despite what the team describes as “volatile” broader conditions. That move capped a month‑long ramp‑up. AInvest and other outlets note that Mantle’s DeFi TVL more than doubled from roughly $333 million at the end of 2025 to around $445–543 million by late February, driven primarily by Aave V3’s launch on February 11 and a six‑month incentive program tied to Mantle’s $4‑plus billion community‑owned treasury. Aave’s deployment quickly concentrated liquidity: within days it accounted for around 40% of Mantle’s TVL, with supplied assets led by USDT and wrapped ETH.
Mantle pitches itself as a “premier distribution layer and gateway for institutions and TradFi to connect with on‑chain liquidity and access real‑world assets,” anchored by the MNT token and integrated with partners such as Ethena’s USDe, Ondo’s USDY and other yield‑bearing dollar products. The protocol emphasizes “legacy‑level safety with decentralized efficiency,” leaning heavily on Aave’s status as the largest on‑chain lending network with about 60% market share and more than $50 billion in net deposits, according to the same release. In plain terms, Mantle is trying to industrialize DeFi credit distribution: it deploys treasury capital to seed liquidity, uses Aave as the risk‑managed front end, and then routes both institutional and retail flow into that stack.
For token traders, the picture is more nuanced. As Bankless Times and others have pointed out, Mantle’s TVL and volumes have surged even as MNT’s price has lagged, at one point falling around 4–7% during a week when Aave’s token gained double digits. Analysts frame that as a classic “TVL–price disconnect”: real capital is flowing into the network in search of yield, but secondary‑market buyers are still treating MNT as a high‑beta risk asset in a choppy macro tape. In a market where Bitcoin trades near $70,400 over the last 24 hours, up about 3.5%, and Ethereum around $2,060 with roughly a 2.8% daily rise, Mantle’s story is less about headline price and more about whether this TVL is sticky enough to justify its emerging role as a DeFi credit hub.
Bitcoin (BTC) found fresh strength at Tuesday’s Wall Street open as bulls eyed a revisit of local highs.
Key points:
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Bitcoin attempts to push toward the top of its local range, hitting new week-to-date highs.
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Liquidity conditions spark warnings of a fresh trip lower.
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The 50-day moving average above $73,500 is a point of concern for BTC/USD going forward.
Bitcoin follows stocks in new relief bounce
Data from TradingView showed 4.5% daily BTC price gains, with BTC/USD passing $71,500 for the first time since the weekly open.
Geopolitical tensions around the Middle East conflict and global oil supply remained, but both Asia and US stocks were confident, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index up by around 0.5%.
“From the looks of it, the market is about to tell us where it wants to go next,” trader Jelle wrote in his latest BTC price analysis on X.
“Reclaim resistance again, and bulls will have a much stronger case in the short-term. Reject here, and the deviation + bear retest locks in, making $60k a likely target next.”
Crypto trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe saw benefits for Bitcoin on the back of a “strong surge” in the Nasdaq.
“Yesterday, deep wick into the lows given the sudden rise on Oil (which was mostly liquidity and derivatives driven). Now, bouncing back and I think we’ll start to run towards new highs as the uncertainty in the Middle-East starts to lower,” he told X followers.
“There are not many arguments left for uncertainty, and in that principle, I do think we’ll see way more upside into Bitcoin & Altcoins during the coming period.”
Crypto liquidations stayed elevated as markets fluctuated, with monitoring resource CoinGlass putting total 24-hour liquidations at over $350 million.
Commenting on the data, CryptoReviewing, the pseudonymous cofounder of trading community Wealth Capital, nonetheless agreed that Bitcoin could drop to take long liquidity at $68,000 next.
“$68,000 is the level to watch. The single largest liquidation cluster sits at $68k, making a sweep of this level possible,” an X post on the day stated.
Bulls tied down by 50-day BTC price trend line
A separate BTC price resistance hurdle on the radar came in the form of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $73,640.
Related: Bitcoin braces for oil shock and death crosses: 5 things to know this week
In his latest YouTube video, independent analyst Filbfilb suggested that Bitcoin’s price would continue to lack the necessary momentum to reclaim the trend line as support.
“I think if we see a close above the 50, taking out the previous high and open interest keep going up, people keep shorting, the likelihood is that we’re going to continue,” he said.
“But I have to say I would expect the bears to come in at the 50-day moving average.”
Trading resource Material Indicators, meanwhile, had a lower ceiling in mind, citing signals from several of its proprietary trading tools.
MTF Mean Reversion, Trend Precognition, and Timescape Levels are all indicating that $BTC is finding a local top around the Q1 2024 Timescape at $71.3k.
El T.A.C.O. could invalidate all of that by de-escalating the so called “excursion” to Iran, or escorting oil tankers out of… pic.twitter.com/hp0LQVf5Un
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) March 10, 2026
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Artificial intelligence won’t be the large-scale job-taker as feared, as the tech needs workers to build and then maintain the trillions of dollars worth of infrastructure for it to run, says Nvidia founder Jensen Huang.
Huang argued in a blog post on Tuesday that AI has become “essential infrastructure, like electricity and the internet,” and the facilities that make the chips, build computers and eventually house AI are “becoming the largest infrastructure buildout in human history.”
“We have only just begun this buildout. We are a few hundred billion dollars into it. Trillions of dollars of infrastructure still need to be built,” he added. “The labor required to support this buildout is enormous.”
Huang said AI data centers require roles such as electricians, plumbers, steelworkers, network technicians and operators, which he added are “skilled, well-paid jobs, and they are in short supply.”
Nvidia (NVDA) is one of the biggest winners of the current AI boom, as it is the most dominant AI hardware supplier, with its chips in high demand. Its share price has risen by over 1,300% since 2023, shortly after OpenAI released the first public version of ChatGPT that kicked off an AI race.
AI needs “five-layer cake”
Huang described AI infrastructure as a “five-layer cake” involving energy, AI chips, infrastructure, AI models and then applications.
He said the infrastructure backing AI “had to be reinvented” from the ground up due to the way it works, as software typically retrieves stored instructions, while AI is “reasoning and generating intelligence on demand.”
AI isn’t a single model. It’s a full stack.
Energy. Chips. Infrastructure. Models. Applications.
That’s the five-layer cake powering the largest industrial buildout in history — and the jobs, factories and AI applications rising with it. pic.twitter.com/rwxO6fdTnE
— NVIDIA Newsroom (@nvidianewsroom) March 10, 2026
“Much of the infrastructure does not yet exist. Much of the workforce has not yet been trained. Much of the opportunity has not yet been realized,” Huang said.
Related: Using AI at work is causing ‘brain fry,’ researchers say
“This is why the buildout is so large. This is why it touches so many industries at once. And this is why it will not be confined to a single country or a single sector,” he added. “Every company will use AI. Every nation will build it.”
Huang’s post comes as multiple companies across a broad range of industries have initiated large-scale layoffs, pointing to efficiencies gained through AI as the reason.
Last month, Block, Inc. cut 40% of its staff, a decision co-founder Jack Dorsey attributed to AI use at the payments company.
Social media platform Pinterest and the chemical company Dow also cited AI as the reason to cut a total of more than 5,000 employees between them earlier this year.
Goldman Sachs analysts said last month that AI-driven job losses have been “visible but moderate,” with the technology helping to raise the US unemployment rate slightly this year, from its current 4.4% to 4.5% by year-end.
AI Eye: IronClaw rivals OpenClaw, Olas launches bots for Polymarket
Social media sentiment over Bitcoin has shifted back to optimism as Bitcoin recovered to over $70,000 on Tuesday, driven by US President Donald Trump’s recent comments that the war with Iran could be nearing an end.
In an X post on Tuesday, market intelligence platform Santiment shared data that shows the number of positive social media discussions has been steadily increasing after tanking on Monday.
“Across X, Reddit, Telegram, and other crypto-related discussions, the crowd is encouraged by Trump’s comments that the war may soon end, and oil prices reversing course,” Santiment said.
It added in a separate post that “periods of uncertainty often trigger a search for alternative assets, and crypto markets tend to react quickly because they trade globally around the clock and are not tied to any single government or financial system.”
Tensions in the Middle East escalated last month after the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran. In response, Iran retaliated against several neighboring countries.
US President Donald Trump’s comments on Monday, however, signaled the war could be wrapping up soon, saying: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” though he later said in a Truth Social post that if Iran did anything to slow the supply of oil, the US would ramp up its military pressure on the country.
Bitcoin held firm in the face of geopolitical shocks
Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer of Australian crypto investment manager Merkle Tree Capital, told Cointelegraph that several other factors might also be driving a rebound in positive sentiment among traders.
Bitcoin’s strong resilience to geopolitical shocks and institutional momentum from companies such as Strategy, which bought nearly 18,000 Bitcoin last week and made a second purchase this week, could also be contributing, according to McMillin, along with Bitcoin holding above its February lows.
“Bitcoin has shown real strength through tough conditions, with inflation cooling, oil risk aside, adding tailwinds so too a new Fed chair only months away and the Clarity Act inching closer to implementation.”
“Shorts are vulnerable; liquidity on the short side could get squeezed toward $80,000 before a true higher/lower decision point. Bears ruled for months, now they could face their first test of this cycle,” McMillin added.
FOMO could be a good sign overall
Despite social media discussions about Bitcoin trending positively, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto sentiment, remained at 15, indicating it remains in “extreme fear.”
The Crypto Fear & Greed uses several sources for its ratings: Bitcoin volatility, dominance, market momentum, social media and Google Trends data.
Meanwhile, Google Trends data for “Bitcoin” returned a score of around 71 as of Wednesday, down from its peak of 100 on March 5.
“FOMO frequently becomes self-fulfilling in crypto. Sentiment flips from fear to greed attracts fresh buyers, boosts volumes, and drives short-term upside, as we’ve seen in past cycles,” McMillin said.
Related: Bitcoiners celebrate as the network produces its 20 millionth coin
“An oversold technical setup after five months of declines, five straight months down from the $126,000 all-time high in October has left Bitcoin heavily oversold, priming it for a relief rally at very least,” he added.
Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen
Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory remains tightly linked to U.S. monetary policy and the evolving geopolitical backdrop, according to Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder known for his bold price calls. In a recent appearance on the Coin Stories podcast with Natalie Brunell, Hayes said he would not deploy fresh capital into Bitcoin today, preferring to wait and see how the Federal Reserve navigates the post-pandemic economy and whether global tensions escalate further. While he has floated a bold target of 250,000 dollars for Bitcoin in the coming years, his immediate stance is to observe policy signals before committing new funds. At the time of publication, Bitcoin traded around $69,926, well off its October all-time high near $126,000.
Hayes emphasized that the macro environment—rather than purely market dynamics—drives his cautious stance. He warned that if the conflict between the U.S. and Iran persists, there could be broad risk-off pressure that weighs on equities and crypto alike. “The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” he argued, framing the central bank’s response as a potential catalyst for price moves in favored disinflation hedges like Bitcoin. He drew a sharp distinction between the wartime narrative and the monetization policy, stating plainly that he would start buying Bitcoin only when central banks begin printing money again. “That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin when the central banks start printing money,” he said in a direct quote during the discussion.
“That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin when the central banks start printing money.”
In his view, money printing—not war itself—has historically provided a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin’s rise. Still, he acknowledged that ongoing geopolitical frictions could drive the price lower in the near term, contrasting with arguments that war itself is a Bitcoin catalyst. While some market observers contend that geopolitical shocks can spark Bitcoin inflows as a non-sovereign store of value, Hayes warned of the possibility of a cascading liquidations scenario if risk assets slide in tandem. The conversation also touched on the notion that volatility could intensify as market participants reassess the pace and scale of monetary stimulus in a world of persistent geopolitical risk.
Bitcoin’s price action has been choppy. The asset briefly tested the $60,000 mark on February 6 before rebounding into a milder uptrend. Hayes noted that the current price level leaves room for further downside, particularly if macro signals deteriorate and liquidation risk rises. He remained steadfast on his longer-term projection, sustaining the idea that Bitcoin could reach a multi-hundred-thousand-dollar level in the next several years, a view that has colored his investment stance and public commentary for some time. The market’s tension between policy direction and geopolitical risk remains a driving force behind price discovery, and Hayes’ stance underscores a broader debate about whether macro catalysts will finally unlock a lasting uptrend for BTC.
As other analysts weigh in on the near-term picture, Michaël van de Poppe recently pointed to a “strong surge” in the Nasdaq as a supporting factor for Bitcoin, arguing that a calmer risk environment could broaden upside for both BTC and altcoins. His assessment aligns with a more optimistic near-term outlook, even as Hayes maintains a more cautious, policy-driven lens. The broader sentiment in the space remains mixed: investors are watching Fed communications, macro data, and geopolitical headlines for signals that could shift liquidity, risk appetite, and correlation dynamics between traditional markets and digital assets.
Hayes has long been known for a contrarian stance on Bitcoin’s price path. The recent discussion did little to dislodge his core thesis that the path to substantial gains hinges on central banks’ willingness to loosen policy rather than on any single development in the crypto space. He has publicly entertained a $250,000 target for Bitcoin, a figure he has echoed in various appearances and interviews, though the timing has varied in public commentary. The juxtaposition of a lofty long-term target with a cautious near-term posture reflects a broader tension in the market: the asset’s allure as a hedge against monetary expansion coexists with vulnerabilities tied to macro shocks and policy shifts.
Why it matters
The episode illustrates how macro policy and geopolitical risk continue to influence crypto narratives at a time when liquidity and risk sentiment are in flux. Hayes’ comments underscore a recurring theme: Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-sovereign instrument may depend more on the stance of central banks than on any single tactical catalyst. If the Fed signals faster-than-expected easing or if geopolitical tensions intensify, BTC could find a renewed bid as investors seek hedges against inflation and policy uncertainty. Conversely, a more aggressive stance on inflation containment or a risk-off shift could amplify downside pressures in the near term, particularly if equities step lower.
For investors, the takeaway is not a call to chase immediate moves but a reminder that macro dynamics—policy normalization, balance-sheet expansion, and global conflicts—can alter the rate and direction of Bitcoin’s price discovery. Hayes’ emphasis on waiting for a policy pivot serves as a caution against chasing a near-term breakout in a market that remains highly sensitive to Federal Reserve cues and to the unfolding geopolitical landscape. In this light, Bitcoin’s current risk-reward profile will hinge on how aggressively policymakers respond to ongoing macro and geopolitical surprises, rather than on crypto-market fundamentals alone.
Ultimately, the narrative around Bitcoin’s price path remains a blend of long-horizon conviction and short-term prudence. The market will likely continue to trade around the interplay of monetary policy expectations, liquidity conditions, and external shocks—factors that have historically driven both volatility and opportunity in the cryptocurrency space. Hayes’ position—to wait for signs of monetary easing before adding exposure—adds another data point to a crowded field of opinions about whether BTC can sustain a trajectory toward higher highs or face renewed headwinds in the months ahead.
What to watch next
- Upcoming Federal Reserve communications or policy adjustments that signal a shift toward easing or continued tightening.
- Geopolitical developments and any escalation in U.S. or regional conflicts that could influence risk sentiment and currency markets.
- Bitcoin price interactions with key technical levels around 60k and 70k, and how liquidity conditions evolve in a risk-on vs. risk-off environment.
- Macro-driven narratives, including Nasdaq performance and broader equity flows, which can affect correlations with BTC.
- Statements from prominent investors or analysts that could recalibrate Bitcoin’s short- to medium-term risk-reward outlook.
Sources & verification
- Hayes’ remarks on the Coin Stories podcast with Natalie Brunell (YouTube): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ny9P1l0WKwo&t=2074s
- Bitcoin price reference page: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
- Bitcoin price context referenced in the piece, including a February 6 dip toward $60,000 and the October all-time high near $126,000
- Reported long-term target of $250,000 for Bitcoin and the assertion that policy shifts (not war alone) drive bullish narratives
This article was originally published as Bitcoin permabull Arthur Hayes: I wouldn’t bet $1 on BTC now on Crypto Breaking News – your trusted source for crypto news, Bitcoin news, and blockchain updates.
Polymarket hiring Palantir and TWG AI signals prediction markets’ shift from degen toy to regulated financial infrastructure, with industrial‑grade surveillance baked into the order book.
Summary
- Polymarket will use Palantir and TWG AI to screen users against banned‑bettor lists and flag anomalous trading, starting with a new U.S.-regulated venue.
- The move follows CFTC pressure, insider probes and media exposés on Iran and Maduro‑linked trades, as regulators demand exchanges police event‑contract markets.
- For Palantir, the deal is tiny in revenue but powerful signaling that its Vergence‑style surveillance stack is becoming default compliance infrastructure for high‑risk markets.
Polymarket’s move to bring in Palantir and TWG AI is an admission that prediction markets are graduating from crypto toy to regulated financial infrastructure – and that the surveillance stack will match. According to a Bloomberg report, the platform is enlisting Palantir Technologies and TWG AI “to help police its sports contracts,” with the remit to identify, prevent and report suspicious activity as regulators and leagues turn up the heat on insider trading in event markets.
What the partnership actually does
People familiar with the deal told Bloomberg that Palantir and TWG AI will screen Polymarket users “against existing lists of participants already banned from sports betting,” and will build systems to flag anomalous trading patterns for further review. A follow‑up report notes the tools are expected to be deployed first on a U.S.‑regulated venue Polymarket is developing, rather than the current offshore platform that blocks American users, signaling the company’s intent to move closer to the CFTC’s line of sight. Benzinga adds that the system will run on Vergence AI, a surveillance and analytics stack Palantir built with TWG Global, designed to monitor financial transactions in real time and feed potential violations into compliance workflows.
The timing is not accidental. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig recently reminded event‑contract venues that exchanges are his “first line of defense against insider trading,” while rival Kalshi has publicly referred insider trades to the regulator, including a MrBeast editor who racked up “near‑perfect trading success” on low‑probability YouTube markets. At the same time, reporting from WIRED and others has documented alleged insiders making outsized profits on Iran‑linked geopolitical markets, with one Polymarket user reportedly earning roughly half a million dollars in a day on the timing of U.S. strikes. Against that backdrop, Polymarket’s priority is simple: convince regulators, leagues and counterparties that it can police its own order book before they do it for them.
Why it matters for markets
For Palantir, the deal is small in dollars but big in signaling. Its stock trades around $154, at roughly 240 times earnings, on the thesis that it becomes the default infrastructure layer for any organization that needs “rigorous data analysis” in sensitive domains; the fact that a crypto‑native prediction market tapped Palantir as its first serious compliance partner, rather than a legacy sportsbook vendor, supports that narrative. For prediction markets and crypto more broadly, the message is harsher: if you want to play in regulated sports, elections and geopolitics at scale, you don’t just list markets – you embed industrial‑grade surveillance, cross‑reference banned‑bettor lists and treat on‑chain flows as regulated financial data, not anonymous degen PnL.
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