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El Salvador Marks 5 Years of Bitcoin Adoption, Cites Domestic Focus

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El Salvador marked five years since it made Bitcoin legal tender, but the legacy of the experiment is proving far more contested than the celebratory moment in 2021 suggested. President Nayib Bukele pitched the move as a fast track to financial inclusion, cheaper remittances, and more investment—yet new research and later policy changes indicate that everyday adoption never materialized on the scale promised.

According to Dr. Tobias Boos, a senior scientist at the University of Vienna who leads research into Bitcoin’s political economy in El Salvador, the project fell short when measured against Bukele’s stated goals. “There is little doubt that the project was a failure if we take seriously the reasons Bukele gave for its adoption,” Boos said, pointing to limited progress on foreign direct investment, banking access, and remittance use.

Key takeaways

  • Research led by Dr. Tobias Boos finds “mass adoption by citizens did not occur,” with adopters more likely to be young, male, urban, and already banked.
  • Despite Chivo’s launch and remittance-focused hopes, crypto wallets handled only a small share of remittance flows by 2024.
  • An IMF program culminating in 2025 approvals pushed El Salvador to reduce state involvement: acceptance became voluntary and public-sector use of Bitcoin was limited.
  • The most durable impact may have been symbolic—making nation-state Bitcoin adoption a real-world precedent—rather than transforming payments or financial inclusion domestically.

Promises of financial inclusion vs. who actually adopted

When Bukele announced the plan at Bitcoin 2021 in Miami on June 5, 2021, he framed adoption as a way to create jobs and deliver financial inclusion to people outside the formal economy. But five years on, evidence described in the research Boos co-authored suggests the adoption pattern did not match the inclusion narrative.

In a 2025 study, Boos and colleagues (Grigera and Schmid) reported that Salvadorans who adopted Bitcoin were disproportionately young, male, urban, and more highly educated—and importantly, “already banked.” Boos’ interpretation is blunt: “Mass adoption by citizens did not occur.”

The mismatch matters because El Salvador’s starting point was weak banking access. World Bank data cited in the reporting shows that in 2021, only 35.9% of people aged 15 and over held a bank account—one of the lowest levels in the region. In other words, if Bitcoin were to serve as a substitute for missing banking infrastructure, it would need to bridge gaps for people without accounts.

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Yet the government’s Chivo wallet, while capable of transferring funds to bank accounts, did not remove the structural barriers preventing many unbanked Salvadorans from accessing the financial system in the first place. Boos and his colleagues describe this as the same core problem reappearing across the adoption story: even with incentives, the missing link was broader financial accessibility rather than the availability of a wallet app.

Remittances: where the “cheaper transfers” thesis didn’t stick

Bukele also sold Bitcoin adoption as a way to improve remittance economics. El Salvador’s economy is tightly linked to money sent from abroad: in 2024, remittances were reported to account for around 24% of GDP, with the United States providing 98% of the total. But the reporting highlights a key constraint—El Salvador has used the U.S. dollar for more than two decades—meaning the most obvious potential cost-saving from Bitcoin (bypassing currency conversion) was already largely neutralized.

That context helps explain why, even with a wave of early promotional activity, crypto wallets remained marginal in remittance flows. The cited research indicates that crypto accounted for barely 1% of remittances by 2024, down from a peak of about 1.7% in 2020–21.

Incentives also did not translate into durable usage. Chivo offered users $30 worth of Bitcoin for signing up, but an analysis described in the article by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that more than 60% of early Chivo users did not make another transaction after spending their free BTC. The reported pattern points to a “try it for the reward” adoption model rather than sustained payment behavior.

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On the ground, Bitcoin-focused journalist Joe Nakamoto reported a similar disconnect. In a recent visit, Nakamoto claimed he tested Bitcoin acceptance at 21 shops in a San Salvador mall and found that only four accepted it, and just one did so smoothly. His characterization in the reporting is that living on Bitcoin is “borderline impossible” except in narrow, workaround-driven areas.

The IMF pivot: from legal tender to voluntary use

While public debates about Bitcoin adoption continued, international pressure eventually forced a policy recalibration. In December 2024, El Salvador agreed to a $1.4 billion financing arrangement with the International Monetary Fund, under which it would scale back its involvement in Bitcoin. The agreement was later approved in February 2025, and in January the government amended its Bitcoin law.

The changes described in the reporting included making acceptance voluntary, requiring taxes to be paid in U.S. dollars, and limiting public sector involvement in Bitcoin-related activities—effectively dismantling the most far-reaching parts of Bukele’s original approach. Put simply, Bitcoin could still be used, but the state would no longer compel businesses to accept it or embed it into the public financial system.

Boos says the outcome aligned with the IMF’s assessment. He described the initiative as “soft adoption” that never led to mass payments usage, noting in the reporting that he is not aware of tax payments made using Bitcoin and that supporting infrastructure largely remained unused. Separately, the IMF later found “no evidence” of a beneficial use case for the unbanked and characterized Bitcoin’s impact on financial inclusion as minimal.

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For investors and builders watching adoption narratives, this shift is instructive: it shows that legal frameworks and state incentives alone are insufficient if day-to-day demand, payment rails, and integration into mainstream economic behavior do not follow.

What El Salvador did achieve: a precedent, not a universal payments system

Even if Bitcoin did not become everyday money across El Salvador, the experiment still delivered something unprecedented: it moved nation-state Bitcoin adoption from a theoretical concept into a real, live case study. Samson Mow, chief executive of Bitcoin infrastructure firm JAN3, framed the change as a shift in how governments think—turning the question from “whether a sovereign could hold Bitcoin” to “why it hadn’t.”

El Salvador also drew sustained attention from prominent figures in the Bitcoin ecosystem, effectively placing the country at the center of the movement’s public narrative. The reporting notes that Stacy Herbert, who later became a director of El Salvador’s National Bitcoin Office, exemplifies how deeply some parts of the Bitcoin community became intertwined with government structures.

At the same time, the article draws a distinction between what Bitcoin achieved for El Salvador and what El Salvador achieved for Bitcoin. Boos argues the symbolic significance was largely “for” the international Bitcoin community rather than evidence of economic success for Salvadorans. Nakamoto goes further, describing the overall strategy as closer to branding aimed at outsiders than an internally effective economic plan—“beautiful branding” directed at those with capital and passports.

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There are also examples of localized, working ecosystems. Bitcoin Beach in El Zonte is cited as an early grassroots initiative that predates the national experiment and reportedly continues functioning even after acceptance became voluntary. The reporting similarly references individual stories of Salvadorans using Bitcoin in daily life, portraying the persistence of micro-economies even as national-scale goals faded.

Beyond legal tender, the Bukele government also promoted projects such as Volcano Bonds and Bitcoin City. However, the article states that repeated delays undermined their progress, and the IMF arrangement “kneecapped” those efforts—though it acknowledges that symbolic impact may still matter to how the episode is remembered globally.

The harder question: Bitcoin strategy under emergency politics

The experiment’s global meaning cannot be separated from the governance environment that made it possible. During Bukele’s time in office, power has been concentrated, and the state of emergency introduced in March 2022 to combat gang violence remains in place years later.

Human Rights Watch, according to the reporting, says the government has continued to remove checks on executive authority. The article also states that local and international human rights organizations have documented mass arbitrary detention and due process violations under the state of emergency.

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At the same time, the reporting emphasizes that judging Bukele only through this lens may miss why he remains popular at home. It cites a sharp fall in the official homicide rate—from 53.1 per 100,000 during the year he took office to 1.3 per 100,000 in 2025—framing the crackdown as a visible public security transformation for many Salvadorans.

That tension feeds into the uncomfortable question for Bitcoiners: what does it mean when a philosophy about individual freedom is advanced through a government imposing policy at scale? Mow acknowledges the potential of emergency powers in the hands of a leader who shows restraint, while warning about how quickly those same mechanisms can be repurposed if leadership changes.

Ultimately, the five-year assessment presented in the reporting is split. Bitcoin gave Bukele global attention, and Bukele gave Bitcoin something it had not previously secured at that level: a nation-state willing to place the asset at the center of its economic strategy—even if the implementation did not deliver the promised outcomes for payments, remittances, or mass financial inclusion.

Going forward, readers should watch how El Salvador’s voluntary policy framework evolves—particularly whether Bitcoin usage remains confined to niche communities like Bitcoin Beach or finds more mainstream payment integration—while also tracking the ongoing human rights and institutional implications of emergency governance that shaped the experiment.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Solana Network Nearly Stopped Working Today. Should SOL Investors Worry?

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Chart of delinquent Solana stake peaking near the 33.33% Solana network halt threshold, Source: Marinade Finance

Solana (SOL) came within five percentage points of a full network halt on Wednesday morning. One routing glitch at one hosting company knocked 28.83% of all staked SOL offline in minutes.

Almost nobody noticed. Staking platform Marinade Finance reconstructed the incident and found the network got 86% of the way to the 33.34% line where Solana stops finalizing transactions.

Chart of delinquent Solana stake peaking near the 33.33% Solana network halt threshold, Source: Marinade Finance
Chart of delinquent Solana stake peaking near the 33.33% Solana network halt threshold, Source: Marinade Finance

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How One Bad Route Nearly Halted the Solana Network

The fault began at Teraswitch, a hosting provider popular with Solana validators. A broken route left its Miami site, then spread through an internal relay in Amsterdam. Twelve sites from London to Tokyo lost their connection. North America never felt it.

“Solana got 86% of the way to a halt this morning and it barely registered anywhere,” Marinade Finance indicated.

Teraswitch found the bug in about 10 minutes. Full recovery took 33. At the peak, roughly 20 million SOL of online stake stood between the network and a freeze.

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Around 90 validators went dark. Their combined lost rewards came to 333 SOL, about $25,600 at current prices. Validator bonds will cover that at the end of the epoch.

Solana’s Own Safety Cap Is Already Broken

An autonomous system number (ASN) is the block of internet addresses one network operator controls. One ASN, AS20326, hosts 27.34% of everything staked on Solana. During the fault, 94% of that stake went offline at once.

The Solana Foundation Delegation Program (SFDP), which steers foundation stake to validators, caps any single ASN at 25%. That cap exists for exactly this failure. It is already broken.

Another 14 million SOL dropped in the same minutes on unrelated providers. Marinade could not explain the overlap. Provider labels clearly miss some shared points of failure.

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Backup systems failed the test too. Of 74 validators Marinade measured, only three switched to a second site. The rest sat offline until the internet healed. Helius, Solana’s second-largest validator, stayed down all 33 minutes.

Marinade admitted its own numbers look similar, with four ASNs holding two-thirds of the stake it allocates. It now plans tighter caps per ASN and data center, and will publish which validators run automatic failover.

A Near Miss With a Long History

SOL trades near $76.46, up 0.6% on the day. The market shrugged. No user funds were ever at risk, and bonds cover the lost rewards. The worry is structural, not immediate.

Solana (SOL) Price Performance
Solana (SOL) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

Solana has seen this movie before. In November 2022, German host Hetzner kicked 1,000 validators offline and pushed delinquent stake past 20%. Wednesday’s fault went further.

The chain’s last full network halt, in February 2024, ended a 351-day uptime streak and took about five hours to fix. No bond covers that outcome. A halt freezes every SOL holder at once.

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The timing stings. Validators are preparing the Alpenglow finality upgrade, due by October, which promises faster confirmations. Speed means little if one provider’s routing table can stall the whole chain.

The open question is whether stake spreads out before the next bad route finds it.

The post Solana Network Nearly Stopped Working Today. Should SOL Investors Worry? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Goldman Sachs to acquire ETF manager NEOS in $2.25B deal

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Goldman Sachs to acquire ETF manager NEOS in $2.25B deal

Goldman Sachs to acquire ETF manager NEOS in $2.25B deal

The deal would add NEOS’ $30 billion ETF business, including Bitcoin- and Ether-linked income funds, to Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

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BitGo CFO to Exit as Q2 Net Loss Hits $19 Million

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BitGo CFO to Exit as Q2 Net Loss Hits $19 Million


BitGo Chief Financial Officer Edward Reginelli will resign effective Sept. 15, the digital-asset infrastructure company disclosed on Aug. 12. In the same announcement, BitGo reported a $19.0 million second-quarter net loss, reversing a $38.3 million profit a year earlier even as revenue climbed… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Boltz Founders Exit as Unnamed Bitcoin Group Agrees to Take Over Suspended Swap Service

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Boltz Founders Exit as Unnamed Bitcoin Group Agrees to Take Over Suspended Swap Service


Boltz’s original founders have stepped down, and an unnamed group of “veteran Bitcoiners” has agreed to take over the suspended Bitcoin swap service, the company said Wednesday. The incoming operators will provide capital and engineering resources, while work to find and fix vulnerabilities is… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Bitget Institutional Launches $300 Million Project Archimedes to Back Quant Firms and Asset Managers

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Bitget Institutional Launches $300 Million Project Archimedes to Back Quant Firms and Asset Managers

Bitget, the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), has launched Project Archimedes, a $300 million institutional capital program for quantitative trading firms, asset managers and market makers.

With the vision of backing minds that move markets, Project Archimedes will support firms at different stages of growth through two programs:

  • Capital Provider Program ($100 million): Allocated to accelerate emerging and growing quantitative firms running market-neutral strategies. Bitget will provide capital, with returns shared under an agreed structure and risk framework.
  • Interest-Free Lending Program ($200 million): Available to established institutions with mature strategies and existing trading scale. Eligible firms can access interest-free capital by meeting defined trading volume or position requirements, reducing funding costs while increasing the capital available to their strategies.

Institutional trading is entering a period where access to capital, execution quality and risk control increasingly determine which strategies can scale. Arbitrage returns across established crypto markets have tightened as competition has increased, leading quantitative firms to explore market structures such as basis spreads, funding-rate differences and tokenized assets.

“Strong strategies often reach a point where talent is no longer the constraint but capital might,” said Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget. “Project Archimedes gives capable teams the acceleration it needs to scale, while aligning capital, risk and execution around sustainable performance. Our goal is to boost over fifty projects in the next six months with this capital.”

The program takes its name from Archimedes’ principle that the right fulcrum can move the world. For institutional trading firms, capital provides that fulcrum, while product structure and infrastructure determine how effectively it can be used.

Tokenized US stocks offer one example. Arbitrage opportunities can arise from differences in basis and funding rates across spot and derivative markets. These strategies typically require firms to maintain positions on both sides of a trade, which can tie up margin across separate accounts.

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Under Bitget’s Unified Account, eligible rToken spot positions can serve as collateral for derivatives trading without requiring transfers between accounts. This structure allows institutions to maintain tokenized stock exposure while deploying related contract strategies through the same account, improving the use of available capital. Weekend collateral valuation follows the underlying stock’s Friday closing price, providing a fixed reference while traditional US markets are closed.

Project Archimedes will focus initially on market-neutral strategies with established operating histories and measurable risk controls. Participating institutions will undergo strategy assessment, due diligence and drawdown reviews.

The program is structured as a long-term capital cooperation framework with rolling admissions and phased deployment. Bitget Institutional plans to disclose program developments over time, including participation figures, deployed capital and strategy distribution. Product specifications, market-structure research and institutional case studies will provide further insight into how participating firms use capital and trading infrastructure.

Project Archimedes also supports Bitget Institutional’s broader role as a capital partner with market insight, connecting firms with liquidity, unified trading infrastructure and an international institutional network. Through capital allocation and interest-free lending, the program aims to help emerging teams establish stronger foundations and enable mature institutions to convert proven strategies into greater trading scale.

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About Bitget

Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users and offering access to over 2M crypto tokens, 500+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX, and precious metals such as gold. The ecosystem is committed to helping users trade smarter with its AI agent, which co-pilots trade execution. Bitget is driving crypto adoption through strategic partnerships such as MotoGP™. Aligned with its global impact strategy, Bitget has joined hands with UNICEF to support blockchain education for 1.1 million people by 2027. Bitget currently leads in the tokenized TradFi market, providing the industry’s lowest fees and highest liquidity across 150 regions worldwide.

For more information, visit: Website | X | Telegram | LinkedIn | Discord

Risk Warning: Digital asset prices are subject to fluctuation and may experience significant volatility. Investors are advised to only allocate funds they can afford to lose. The value of any investment may be impacted, and there is a possibility that financial objectives may not be met, nor the principal investment recovered. Independent financial advice should always be sought, and personal financial experience and standing carefully considered. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bitget accepts no liability for any potential losses incurred. Nothing contained herein should be construed as financial advice. For further information, please refer to our Terms of Use.

The post Bitget Institutional Launches $300 Million Project Archimedes to Back Quant Firms and Asset Managers appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Bitcoin Rebound Faces Risk as Futures Demand Outpaces Spot Buying: Analysts

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Bitcoin’s bounce off Tuesday’s low near $63,200 is coming mostly from leveraged futures positioning, not real spot buying, according to CryptoQuant data cited by the analytics account XWIN Japan.

That’s the same setup that preceded April 2026’s failed rally, which is why some analysts are treating the current recovery as fragile until spot demand actually shows up.

Futures Are Leading, Spot Is Lagging

XWIN Japan laid out the numbers plainly: 30-day perpetual futures demand has turned positive again, while on-chain spot demand remains negative. Traders, in other words, are adding leveraged exposure before real spot buying has caught up.

The account pointed to April 2026 as the precedent, when Bitcoin ran from roughly $66,000 to $79,000 on rising futures demand while spot stayed weak, and the rally eventually faded once that leverage unwound.

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One difference this time is that US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have started recovering too. As XWIN Japan put it, “the key question is not simply whether Bitcoin is rising.”

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, had made a near-identical call earlier in the day: open interest is climbing while on-chain spot demand stays negative, and “a sustainable rally needs both spot and future demand.”

He’d said almost the same thing on April 27, noting that Bitcoin was futures-driven even with ETF inflows and Michael Saylor’s Strategy purchases in play, and that bear markets historically only end once spot and futures demand recover together.

Bitcoin was trading near $64,000 at the time of writing, having oscillated within a 24-hour range of roughly $63,200 to $64,400 per CoinGecko data.

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Price Under Pressure, and a Familiar Setup

It’s been a choppy stretch for the asset as it first got turned back at $65,000 earlier this month after the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, then rallied a few hundred bucks above that same level on a weak US jobs report last Friday before getting rejected there again on Monday. It slipped as low as the aforementioned $63,200 on Tuesday, a nine-day low, before clawing back some ground.

Zoom out, and the picture softens further: BTC is up only 1.4% across 30 days and still down 46% from a year ago. Its market cap sits near $1.28 trillion, with dominance over the rest of the crypto market just over 57%.

Other traders are watching the same tension play out technically. Glassnode data shows 54.6% of Bitcoin’s supply still sitting in profit even as the price has stuck in the $63,500 to $65,000 band, with the firm treating $65,000 as the level that would need to break before anyone calls a bottom confirmed.

A weekly chart shared separately by trader Titan adds another wrinkle: the same moving-average crossover that preceded Bitcoin’s three prior cycle bottoms, in 2015, 2019, and 2022, has just printed again, with price sitting in the same zone the chart flags as a potential bottoming range.

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That lines up with XWIN Japan’s framing regardless: the rebound holds together only if spot buying, ETF flows, and futures demand all turn up together, and if open interest keeps climbing without spot behind it, the setup looks like April all over again.

The post Bitcoin Rebound Faces Risk as Futures Demand Outpaces Spot Buying: Analysts appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Hawaii Crypto ATM Ban to Take Effect on Oct. 1

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Hawaii Crypto ATM Ban to Take Effect on Oct. 1

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.

All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.

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x402 Volume Plunges 93% YTD as Agentic AI Economy Hype Fades

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Market analyst Jamie Coutts said x402 daily settlement volume is down 93% year-to-date as a late-2025 testing wave died out.

The decline contrasts with growing infrastructure for AI agents, leaving the protocol’s actual payment activity well behind the expectations surrounding the agentic economy.

x402 Activity Remains Far Below Late-2025 Levels

Coutts posted the assessment on August 12, pointing to a Helios Analytics chart tracking x402 settlement volume from October 2025 through July 2026. The data shows heavy activity during the final quarter of 2025, with several daily peaks approaching or passing $800,000 and $1 million.

That activity did not last. Settlement volume fell steeply after December and remained subdued through most of 2026. The chart puts the seven-day average at around $41,800, while the latest provisional daily figure is roughly $28,400.

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The wider figure tells a similar story. x402 volume is down 55% over three months and 93% year-to-date. Yet the one-year figure is still 358 times higher, largely because activity was starting from a very low base.

Coutts described the numbers as a “reality check” for claims that the agentic economy is already here. Still, he does not see the current slowdown as permanent. He expects agent activity to begin rising alongside greater use of agent harnesses in the fourth quarter.

His argument rests partly on a recent development involving Cloudflare. On July 1, the company launched its Monetization Gateway, which lets customers charge for pages, APIs, datasets and MCP tools. The service uses x402 for stablecoin settlement and handles usage measurement and settlement at the edge.

Coutts said the system expands Cloudflare’s earlier Pay Per Crawl model. That service focused on charging AI bots, while the new gateway can charge any caller, including people and AI agents.

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Infrastructure Is Growing While Usage Catches Up

The muted settlement data comes despite a series of developments aimed at machine-to-machine payments. On July 14, Ripple joined the newly launched x402 Foundation, hosted by the Linux Foundation, as a premier member alongside other crypto firms overseeing the Coinbase-built protocol.

Markus Infranger, senior vice president of RippleX, said “open standards like x402 help lay the foundation for trusted, interoperable machine-to-machine payments.” Ripple said its XRP Ledger already supports x402, meaning agents could transact using XRP or its RLUSD stablecoin, something it had previewed a month earlier with an AI Starter Kit for building autonomous payment apps on the XRPL, built with t54.

A16z had flagged x402 by name back in December 2025, predicting AI agents would need payments that move at internet speed and calling programmable settlement tools a way to make value transfer “a native network function rather than a separate operational layer.” Almost eight months later, Coutts’ chart shows the anticipated activity has mostly gone quiet.

The post x402 Volume Plunges 93% YTD as Agentic AI Economy Hype Fades appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Circle’s cirBTC Is Live on Ethereum but Has Only 40 BTC Outstanding

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Circle’s cirBTC Is Live on Ethereum but Has Only 40 BTC Outstanding


Circle renewed its push for cirBTC as neutral institutional collateral in an Aug. 12 post, but the product is not a new launch. It has been live on Ethereum since June 8 and had only about 40 tokens outstanding at the time of review, compared with more than 116,000 WBTC and 97,000 cbBTC. cirBTC… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Nvidia Q2 Earnings in 14 Days: What to Expect from NVDA Stock?

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Nvidia Consensus EPS Forecast. Source: TipRanks

Nvidia reports Q2 earnings on August 26, and Wall Street already knows the headline number. Analysts expect about $92 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $2.08, double the year-ago figure.

The report is due in 14 days. Nvidia guided to $91 billion, so a beat is close to assumed. What to expect beyond that is where analysts split.

What Wall Street Expects From Nvidia Q2 Earnings

The call begins at 5 p.m. ET. It covers the quarter that ended July 26. Nvidia set the bar itself in May. It grew to $91 billion, give or take 2%, with gross margin near 75%. Those figures come from the company’s own outlook.

The year-ago quarter makes the math easy. Nvidia earned $1.05 per share on $46.7 billion in revenue. Hitting $92 billion would nearly double the top line.

One caveat on the earnings figure. TipRanks puts consensus at $2.08 from 37 analysts. Zacks, tracked by Nasdaq, shows $2.01 from 11. The gap is small, but it decides what counts as a beat.

Nvidia Consensus EPS Forecast. Source: TipRanks
Nvidia Consensus EPS Forecast. Source: TipRanks

Analysts are almost uniformly positive. Of the 37 tracked, 36 rate the stock a Buy and one a Hold. The average target sits near $310, with estimates from $250 to $500.

Crypto traders have their own reason to watch. Nvidia’s November 2025 report lifted Bitcoin above $91,000. AI sentiment now moves both markets.

Nvidia Has Beaten Its Own Guidance for Three Straight Quarters

The beat is expected because it keeps happening. The size of it barely changes.

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  • Nvidia guided to $54 billion for the October 2025 quarter and delivered $57 billion.
  • It guided to $65 billion for January and delivered $68.1 billion.
  • They also guided to $78 billion for April and delivered $81.6 billion.

That is a beat of $3 billion, $3.1 billion, then $3.6 billion. Every figure comes from Nvidia’s own quarterly releases.

Bank of America expects $94 billion to $95 billion this time. That is a beat of $3 billion to $4 billion. It sits exactly inside the pattern.

So the surprise would be a small beat, not a large one.

The Growth Rate is the Part Nobody Highlights

Here the picture shifts. Revenue growth from one quarter to the next has run near 20% three times in a row.

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Nvidia’s $91 billion revenue guide implies growth of just 11.5%. Even Bank of America’s $95 billion works out to 16%. Both are the slowest pace in more than a year.

The year-on-year number still looks enormous at roughly 97%. That is because the comparison base is small, not because momentum is building.

While none of this means demand is fading, it does explain why a headline beat may not move the stock much.

The Guidance Number to Expect is $108 Billion

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya models third-quarter guidance of $107 billion to $108 billion. Analysts currently carry roughly $104 billion. Arya keeps a Buy rating and a $350 target.

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Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider holds a Buy rating with a $285 target. He expects meaningful upside to guidance. He also warns that the bar is high after a 12% two-week run.

Goldman’s 2026 and 2027 estimates are 6% and 19% above consensus, respectively. Traders can weigh that against the current Nvidia stock price forecast.

The options market has voted too. Contracts expiring on August 28 imply a 6.75% move, or a range near $209 to $239. The stock traded around $224 on Wednesday after closing at $217.50 the day before.

Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Expected Move For Options Expiring August 28, Two Days After Q2 Earnings. Source: OptionCharts
Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Expected Move For Options Expiring August 28, Two Days After Q2 Earnings. Source: OptionCharts

What Could Go Wrong Between Vera Rubin and Memory Costs

Nvidia moved its Vera Rubin platform into full production on May 31. Shipments start in the fall.

“Agentic AI is a new kind of workload. One prompt can launch a thousand-step journey of reasoning, retrieval, tool use and response generation. Vera Rubin was built for this moment,” Jensen Huang, Nvidia founder and chief executive, in the company’s announcement.

  • Memory is the cost problem.

It now accounts for 40% to 50% of the cost to build a system. That share used to be 15% to 20%.

Bank of America still sees margins holding near 73% to 74%. On Rubin racks, the memory hit is about 60 basis points. Larger pod systems could take 500.

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  • Then there is the funding question.

Nvidia has put roughly $70 billion into partners, including $30 billion in OpenAI and $10 billion in Anthropic. Critics say that props up its own order book.

Bank of America calls it 15% of the free cash flow it expects across 2026 and 2027. Skeptics are unmoved. The worry feeds the AI bubble debate.

Suppliers point the other way. Supermicro’s record AI backlog showed demand that has not cooled.

What to Watch on August 26

The setup is unusual. Nvidia could beat by $4 billion and still disappoint, because attention has moved to the October quarter.

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Investors also want proof that the demand is external. That doubt grew once Nvidia began financing its own customers.

Expect the guidance slide to matter more than the beat. Whether $108 billion appears there may set the tone for months.

The post Nvidia Q2 Earnings in 14 Days: What to Expect from NVDA Stock? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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