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EUR/USD and GBP/USD at Range Boundaries Ahead of Geopolitical Decisions

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EUR/USD and GBP/USD at Range Boundaries Ahead of Geopolitical Decisions

European currencies are entering a consolidation phase following an attempted recovery, while market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical landscape. Current price action reflects a balance between a softer US dollar and a lack of sustained drivers for further gains in the euro and the pound, keeping both pairs within defined ranges.

The key factor shaping the current market structure remains developments surrounding Iran. Despite signs of moderate recovery in global markets and some easing in the dollar, US rhetoric and the absence of clear signals regarding a potential agreement continue to maintain a high level of uncertainty. Rising oil prices and risks of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel inflation expectations and, as a result, support a cautious approach to assessing the outlook for monetary policy.

Additional uncertainty stems from statements by Donald Trump, who earlier this week once again hardened his stance on Iran, suggesting the possibility of further strikes. At the same time, diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement are ongoing, although the likelihood of a near-term resolution is seen as limited. This combination of pressure and negotiations creates a mixed news backdrop, restraining the formation of a clear directional move in the currency market while leaving room for sharp impulses in the event of escalation.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is trading within a narrow 1.1500–1.1600 range. Technical analysis suggests a potential test of the upper boundary, as several reversal patterns have formed on the daily timeframe. A sustained move above 1.1600 could lead to gains towards 1.1640. Conversely, a break below the 1.1500 support level could open the way for a decline towards the 1.1440–1.1410 area.

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Key events for EUR/USD:

  • today at 10:15 (GMT+3): Spain Services PMI
  • today at 10:55 (GMT+3): Germany Services PMI
  • today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US core durable goods orders

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is showing a similar pattern, remaining within a sideways range after a corrective rebound. A firm break above 1.3300 could pave the way for further gains towards 1.3370–1.3400. On the downside, a rejection from current levels may result in a retest of recent lows near 1.3150.

Key events for GBP/USD:

  • today at 11:30 (GMT+3): UK Composite PMI
  • today at 11:30 (GMT+3): UK Services PMI
  • today at 17:00 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Overall, the market retains a consolidative tone, awaiting both geopolitical developments and macroeconomic signals. A breakout from the current range could be triggered by news related to negotiations involving Iran or by key economic data releases, highlighting the transitional nature of the current market phase.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Crypto World

Crypto ETPs Rebound With $224M Inflows Led by XRP: CoinShares

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Crypto ETPs Rebound With $224M Inflows Led by XRP: CoinShares

Cryptocurrency investment products recorded minor inflows last week despite mixed geopolitical signals and increasingly hawkish investor expectations.

Global crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) clocked $224 million in inflows last week, following a $414 million outflow a week before, CoinShares reported on Tuesday.

The fresh inflows brought total assets under management to about $131.8 billion, roughly in line with levels seen at the same time last year. Year-to-date inflows also totaled about $1.2 billion, compared with $960 million over the same period last year.

The inflows marked a brief rebound in sentiment before later-week macro data and policy expectations reversed momentum, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill said.

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XRP leads inflows as Bitcoin trails closely

XRP (XRP) led inflows with about $120 million, contributing more than half of net weekly inflows.

The gains marked XRP’s largest weekly inflows since mid-December 2025, Butterfill noted, bringing its year-to-date inflows to $159 million.

Crypto ETP flows by asset (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

Bitcoin (BTC) ETPs followed closely with $107 million of inflows, bringing year-to-date flows to slightly above $1 billion. Of those gains, only around $22 million was contributed by US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which remain in negative territory year-to-date.

Solana (SOL) also saw minor inflows totaling around $35 million last week, with steady inflows this year representing 10% of total assets under management.

On the other hand, Ether (ETH) investment products continued to lag, posting $53 million in outflows. That followed $222 million in outflows the prior week, bringing year-to-date outflows to $327 million.

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Related: CoinShares stock makes US debut on Nasdaq following SPAC merger

CoinShares’ Butterfill attributed the negative sentiment around Ether to developments tied to the CLARITY Act, a major piece of crypto legislation closely linked to stablecoins, which are largely issued on the Ethereum blockchain. Following months of delays, US Senate Banking Committee member Bill Hagerty said Monday that he expects a potential path for the bill in the coming weeks.

Geographically, Switzerland led last week’s inflows at roughly $157 million, followed by Germany and the US, which both recorded about $28 million each, and Canada with $11 million.

Magazine: Your guide to surviving this mini-crypto winter

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