Ali Martinez points to a rare three-day signal that historically appeared just before Bitcoin’s final bear-market plunges.

A key technical signal that has foreshadowed the final capitulation phase of previous Bitcoin (BTC) bear markets is flashing again.

According to chartist Ali Martinez, a “death cross” on the three-day chart could be confirmed in late February, potentially sending BTC to $40,000 or even $30,000.

The Death Cross Pattern and What History Shows

Martinez pointed to the three-day chart as a crucial timeframe for understanding Bitcoin’s macro structure, noting that the interaction between the 50 and 200 simple moving averages on this chart has reliably signaled the last major downside move since 2014.

“The death cross between these two moving averages on the 3-day chart has consistently preceded the final leg down of a bear market,” the trader wrote.

Following the 2013 top, Bitcoin dropped more than 72% before the death cross printed in December 2014, after which it fell another 52%. After the 2017 peak, the death cross appeared in November 2018, coming just before a final 50% decline. The signal emerged again in May 2022, following the 2021 top, which led to an additional 45% drop.

Bitcoin registered a new all-time high (ATH) in October 2025 when it went above $126,000, but the current price, which had recovered to just over $66,000 at the time of writing after earlier shedding about $4,000 in only a matter of hours, is nearly 48% below that ATH.

With a potential death cross projected for late February, Martinez warns that if history repeats even partially, a further 30% decline would place Bitcoin near $40,000, while a 50% drop could take it to $30,000.

However, the market watcher was quick to note that there were no guarantees the price drops would happen, even though the current structure matches up with historical setups that led to the last major downside moves before macro bottoms formed.

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Market Reaction and On-Chain Divergence

Bitcoin is currently down about 2.5% in the last 24 hours and more than 4% over the past week. It has also lost nearly 27% of its value in the past month, a drop exacerbated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a 10% (later upgraded to 15%) temporary global tariff after the country’s Supreme Court struck down many of the previous tariffs the Trump administration had imposed under a 1977 emergency law.

As seen during past tariff-related volatility, the impact on Bitcoin wasn’t immediate but arrived once legacy futures markets opened. It also sparked a coordinated bearish impulse in the futures market, with data from analyst Axel Adler Jr. showing that taker sell volume spiked to $2.3 billion in a single hour, accompanied by forced long liquidations of approximately 1,247 BTC worth more than $81 million.

Santiment data confirmed the liquidation cascade, noting open interest dropped to $19.5 billion, which is less than half its January peak, leading to skyrocketing negative sentiment, and the Bitcoin market entering “FUD mode.”

Even though bitcoin (BTC) is, historically speaking, one of the best performing assets of all time, on most days its performance isn’t actually all that impressive. In fact, almost all of its long term returns are crammed into a small number of trading sessions.

The rest of the time, it chops around.

For example, on November 17-18, 2013, BTC rallied 50%. Take these two days out of the equation and every early Bitcoiner’s return would be halved.

Elsewhere, on July 20, 2017, BTC rallied 27% and in December of that same year, it surged 40%.

To have made the most of the rally that’s exceeded one million percent between 2009 and July 2012, investors needed to be holding during rare bull runs.

Read more: Bitcoin Core promotes first Trusted Keys maintainer in three years

Visualizing the uneven returns of bitcoin

There are various ways to visualize the irregular days that generate the vast majority of BTC investment returns.

The most appropriate method might be a giant calendar highlighting the tiny number of days responsible for the majority of BTC returns.

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Similarly, the same calendar could highlight the fewest days that would have zeroed out the lifetime return of BTC if an investor hadn’t held on during those days.

That number is shockingly small: less than 100 of the 5,000 days since July 2012.

Whereas a vast and mostly blank calendar certainly conveys the message about clustered outperformance amid normally unremarkable behavior, perhaps the most visually compelling way to track this data is to show the price change by periods of significant rallies.

From a starting point exactly seven years ago, there have been 11 significant BTC rallies that achieved new highs. The above chart illustrates these periods.

• April 1-8, 2019: $4,095 to $5,347, a 31% gain in eight days
• May 1-15, 2019: $5,268 to $8,300, a 58% gain in 15 days
• June 12-26, 2019: $7,916 to $13,880, a 75% gain in 15 days
• November 5-24, 2020: $14,168 to $19,442, a 37% gain in 20 days
• December 12, 2020-January 8, 2021: $18,031 to $42,000, a 133% gain in 28 days
• February 8-21, 2021: $38,870 to $58,354, a 50% gain in 14 days
• September 30-October 20, 2021: $41,538 to $67,017, a 61% gain in 21 days
• November 5-21, 2024: $67,817 to $99,121, a 46% gain in 17 days
• December 11-16, 2024: $96,658 to $107,821, a 12% gain in six days
• July 8-14, 2025: $108,286 to $123,236, a 14% gain in seven days
• September 28-October 6, 2025: $109,679 to $126,272, a 15% gain in nine days

Eleven periods outperformed BTC

As a simple, non-cumulative sum, these rallies are worth 532% or one-third of the 1,540% BTC rally from $4,100 seven years ago to its $67,200 price as of writing. 

On a compounded basis, those 11 trading periods are worth 5,800% or nearly quadruple the actual seven-year gain in BTC.

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Yes, had an investor only held during those periods and reinvested fully each time, they’d have substantially outperformed BTC. 

Of course, no investor can magically time the market perfectly. Nonetheless, this exercise shows how important the returns of a very short number of days are to the overall returns of one of the world’s all-time best-performing assets.

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Officials advising Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” are exploring a US dollar-backed stablecoin for Gaza, according to reports from the Financial Times. The proposal remains in early stages. 

However, it signals a potential shift toward using crypto as core infrastructure in Gaza’s post-war economic reconstruction.

Turning Gaza Into a Crypto Project?

According to the Financial Times, the stablecoin would be pegged to the US dollar and used to facilitate digital payments, not replace Gaza with a sovereign currency. 

Governance would involve the Board of Peace and Gaza’s interim technocratic administration. 

The discussions come as Gaza’s banking system remains severely impaired. Cash access has been restricted since 2023 due to ATM destruction and limits on physical currency deliveries. 

As a result, digital payments have become more common, though connectivity and financial infrastructure remain fragile.

Board of Peace Takes Central Role in Gaza Transition

The Board of Peace sits at the center of Trump’s broader 20-point plan for Gaza. Trump chairs the body. Its members include senior US officials such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff, alongside international figures like former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and World Bank President Ajay Banga.

The board oversees Gaza’s transitional governance, reconstruction planning, and economic recovery. It also coordinates with a Palestinian technocratic committee tasked with restoring services and managing daily administration. 

Meanwhile, an international stabilization force is expected to handle security and policing during the transition period.

Within this framework, the stablecoin proposal reflects a broader effort to rebuild Gaza’s financial system without relying on traditional banking infrastructure.

Promise of Financial Access, But Ethical Risks of Control

In theory, a stablecoin could help restore economic activity. Digital dollars could enable aid delivery, salaries, and daily transactions even without functioning banks. This could potentially improve transparency and reduce corruption in aid distribution.

However, the plan raises serious ethical and political concerns. A digitally controlled currency governed by an international body could give external actors unprecedented influence over Gaza’s financial system. Every transaction could be tracked. 

Access could potentially be restricted or revoked.

Moreover, introducing a separate payment system risks further separating Gaza economically from the West Bank. Infrastructure limits, including Gaza’s reliance on slow 2G networks, could also hinder adoption.

For now, the stablecoin remains only a proposal. 

However, if implemented, it would represent one of the first attempts to rebuild a post-conflict economy using digital dollar infrastructure — a move that could reshape both Gaza’s future and the global role of stablecoins.

TLDR

• Novo Nordisk stock fell 15% after CagriSema failed to prove non-inferiority to Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide in an 84-week trial.
• CagriSema delivered 23% weight loss vs. 25.5% for tirzepatide — missing its primary endpoint.
• The stock hit its lowest level since June 2021, down nearly 50% over the past year.
• Novo’s CEO remains confident in CagriSema, citing its potential as the first GLP-1/amylin combo drug on the market.
• Eli Lilly stock rose 3.1% in premarket trading on the news.

Novo Nordisk took another hit on Monday. The stock fell as much as 15% after the company revealed its next-generation weight loss drug, CagriSema, failed to prove it was just as good as Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide in a head-to-head trial.

Novo Nordisk A/S, NVO

The result sent NVO to its lowest price since June 2021.

In the late-stage trial, patients on CagriSema lost 23% of their body weight over 84 weeks. Those on tirzepatide — the active ingredient in Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound — lost 25.5%.

That gap meant CagriSema missed its primary endpoint: showing non-inferiority to tirzepatide.

The trial was open-label, meaning participants knew which drug they were taking. Novo’s Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange said this design can introduce bias toward a well-known product when tested against an experimental one.

Lange said he was “surprised” by tirzepatide’s 25.5% result, pointing out that Lilly’s own studies have shown the drug producing around 20.2% weight loss over 72 weeks.

CEO Stays Optimistic

Despite the miss, CEO Mike Doustdar pushed back on the negativity. “We strongly believe that CagriSema has, right now, the best weight efficacy than any product currently in the market,” he said.

Novo filed CagriSema with the FDA late last year, and a decision is expected by late 2026. Doustdar said he expects it to reach the market early next year with the best weight-loss label available.

The company is also exploring additional trials, including higher-dose combinations, to maximize the drug’s potential.

CagriSema combines semaglutide — the ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy — with cagrilintide, an experimental hormone that affects appetite. Novo has positioned it as the first GLP-1/amylin combination treatment for obesity.

A Rough Run for Novo

This is not an isolated setback. When Novo first released CagriSema late-stage data in December 2024, the stock dropped 21% and wiped out nearly $100 billion in market value.

Over the past year, NVO has lost close to 50% of its value.

Earlier this month, Novo forecast a sales and profit decline of between 5% and 13% for 2026. The company is dealing with rising competition, lower U.S. prices, and upcoming patent expirations on Wegovy and Ozempic in some markets.

Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten noted that CagriSema’s commercial positioning is “increasingly unclear” following Monday’s results. He estimated the drug could account for 15% to 25% of Novo’s revenue by 2030 and said the situation highlights “the pressing need for M&A,” forecasting Novo could spend up to $35 billion on acquisitions this year.

Meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s stock rose 3.1% in premarket trading Monday.

Novo’s Copenhagen-listed stock was last seen down 14% at 259 Danish kroner.

Dogecoin price is stuck in a technical bear market, a trend that may continue as key metrics like exchange-traded fund inflows and futures open interest slip.

Dogecoin (DOGE) token was trading at $0.09610, down by 80% from its highest level in November 2024. It is hovering near its lowest level since September 2024.

DOGE, the biggest meme coin in the crypto industry, has dropped, mirroring the performance of Bitcoin (BTC) and other altcoins. It has also mirrored the performance of other meme coins like Shiba Inu and Bonk.

Third-party data shows that Dogecoin’s demand has waned in the past few months. A good example of this is in Wall Street, where DOGE ETFs by companies like Grayscale, 21Shares, and BitWise have not attracted any inflows since February 3. 

Their cumulative inflows this month is just $252k, with their assets being $9 million. In contrast, spot XRP ETFs have over $1 billion in assets, while Solana have $775 million. 

More data shows that the futures open interest has tumbled in the past few months. It has dropped to $1 billion, down from $5.2 billion in September last year. Falling open interest is a sign that demand from the highly active traders has continued falling. 

The open interest has been in a downtrend after the major liquidation event that happened in October last year. In most cases, falling interest during a downtrend is a sign that demand is waning.

Dogecoin price prediction: technical analysis

The weekly chart shows that the DOGE price has slumped in the past few months. It dropped below the important support level at $0.10, confirming a bearish outlook. 

Most notably, the coin has formed a multi-year head-and-shoulders pattern. The head is at $0.4820, while the right shoulder is at $0.3073, and the left one is at $0.2290. 

Dogecoin has remained below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages. It has dropped below the key support level at $0.1296, its lowest level in April last year.

Therefore, the coin will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support level at $0.050. The bearish outlook will become invalid if it moves above the key resistance at $0.1300 will invalidate the bearish outlook.

Crypto.com announced on Monday that it has secured conditional approval for a national bank trust charter from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). If the company clears final regulatory hurdles, it would operate as a federally regulated custodian with OCC oversight, enabling custody services for digital asset treasuries, exchange-traded funds, and other tokenized products across the United States. The application, which Crypto.com filed in October, signals a push toward regulated, institution-facing custody solutions as regulators weigh how crypto firms fit within traditional banking structures. The development comes amid a broader policy shift in Washington as regulators assess the path for crypto custody, stablecoins, and related financial services.

Key takeaways

• Crypto.com has won conditional approval from the OCC for a national bank trust charter, positioning it to offer nationwide custody under federal supervision.
• The OCC’s action comes two months after it conditionally approved five other national bank charters for Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Paxos, signaling a growing regulatory pathway for crypto firms seeking bank-like status.
• Coinbase also applied for a national trust charter in October, stating it would not pursue a banking charter if approved.
• The American Bankers Association has urged the OCC to slow the pace of charter approvals for digital-asset firms until the GENIUS Act’s framework is fully implemented, arguing for robust safety and soundness standards.
• Nationally chartered trust companies could, in practice, be exempt from many state licensing requirements, a shift that could alter how crypto custodians operate across state lines.

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The OCC’s charter activity reflects a broader effort by U.S. regulators to define a federal framework for crypto custody and related services. As institutions seek regulated access to digital assets, the agency’s willingness to grant national trust charters signals a pathway for crypto firms to operate with bank-style oversight, while lawmakers debate stablecoins and payment infrastructure within the GENIUS Act and other regulatory constructs.

Why it matters

For Crypto.com, the conditional approval marks a consequential milestone in the company’s strategy to scale regulated custody services beyond traditional exchange models. A federally chartered custodian would offer clients a familiar, bank-like framework backed by OCC oversight, potentially increasing institutional comfort with safekeeping digital assets and related products. The ability to custody digital asset treasuries and exchange-traded funds at scale could reduce fragmentation in the market, offering a single, regulated point of custody for a broad array of tokenized assets. As regulated entities, these custodians may also gain access to mainstream banking services and payments rails that have historically remained out of reach for many crypto firms.

The OCC’s broader pattern — approving multiple national bank charters for crypto-focused firms — suggests a deliberate policy tilt toward integrating digital asset services into the U.S. banking system. This trend aligns with a growing cadre of firms pursuing trust-charter status as a route to credibility and growth within a tightly regulated financial ecosystem. At the same time, it invites ongoing questions about safety, risk management, and consumer protection in a rapidly evolving space. The ABA’s warning underscores the tension between innovation and prudence, highlighting the need for a clear regulatory timetable and robust standards before large-scale approvals are granted.

World Liberty Financial, another crypto-related firm pursuing a national bank charter with ties to the USD1 stablecoin project backed by high-profile political figures, illustrates the intense regulatory scrutiny surrounding these applications. The bank-charter process for World Liberty has drawn attention from lawmakers and regulators who are weighing the implications of native, in-house issuance and custody capabilities for digital-asset stablecoins. The OCC chair and senior staff have signaled a commitment to apolitical, nonpartisan review, even as political signals and stakeholder perspectives continue to shape the conversation.

In parallel, the regulatory dialogue continues to unfold around whether national charters should supersede or complement state-by-state licensing regimes. Legal experts have noted that a nationally chartered trust company could be exempt from much of the licensing friction tied to state rules, potentially streamlining cross-border or cross-state custody arrangements. This possibility adds a layer of strategic importance for issuers and asset managers contemplating multi-jurisdictional operations in the United States.

The ongoing debate also touches on the role of policy in facilitating or constraining innovation. While a federally chartered path can provide clarity and resilience for large-scale custody, regulators must balance that clarity with rigorous safety standards to protect customers and the financial system. As OCC reviews advance, market participants will be watching how quickly final approvals are issued, how the agency applies safety-and-soundness criteria to crypto-adjacent activities, and how the evolving framework interacts with broader legislative developments in the GENIUS Act era.

For more context on the specific filings and related regulatory developments, see the official crypto-company notices and industry coverage linked in this article, including Crypto.com’s conditional approval announcement, historical OCC actions on national bank charters, and related coverage of industry stakeholders urging caution or applauding progress.

What to watch next

• Final OCC approval for Crypto.com’s national bank trust charter and any conditions attached to it.
• Public decisions on the other recently approved national charters (Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, Paxos) and any new applicants.
• Timeline and milestones for GENIUS Act implementation and how it might affect future charter reviews.
• Progress on World Liberty Financial’s charter bid and regulatory feedback from lawmakers and regulators.
• Coinbase’s regulatory status and any statements from the OCC on potential bank-charter interpretations for crypto companies.

Sources & verification

• Crypto.com press release confirming conditional OCC charter approval for a national trust charter: https://crypto.com/eea/company-news/cryptocom-receives-conditional-approval-from-occ-for-national-trust-bank-charter
• History of OCC conditional approvals for Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, Paxos: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitgo-circle-fidelity-bitgo-ripple-occ-approval-bank-conversion
• Coinbase application for a national trust charter: https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-exchange-coinbase-national-trust-charter-license
• ABA letter urging delay and safety standards: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bankers-push-occ-slow-crypto-trust-bank-charters
• World Liberty Financial’s charter bid and related coverage: https://cointelegraph.com/news/world-liberty-files-banking-charter-expand-usd1

Crypto.com gains conditional OCC national trust charter, signaling a broader shift in US crypto custody

Crypto.com has moved a step closer to a federally regulated custody framework, announcing conditional approval from the OCC for a national bank trust charter. If final approval is granted, the company would serve as a custodian across the United States, operating under OCC oversight. The company filed its application in October, aiming to provide custody services for digital asset treasuries, exchange-traded funds, and other tokenized products for institutional clients. This milestone comes amid a wave of regulatory activity as policymakers weigh how to integrate crypto-securities and digital assets into traditional banking systems. The OCC’s decision aligns with a broader push that has seen Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Paxos receive conditional approvals in the preceding months, illustrating a concerted effort to establish a regulated pathway for crypto custodians. Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek framed the milestone as a testament to the company’s compliance culture and its commitment to delivering trusted, secure services that meet institutional expectations, a sentiment echoed in the broader industry narrative about formalizing crypto custody under a bank charter regime. Source: Crypto.com The development arrives alongside ongoing regulatory discussions about the balance between innovation and consumer protection in the crypto space, including questions about how national charters interact with state-level licensing regimes and whether a federally chartered custodian might enjoy exemptions from certain state requirements. Recent industry-background coverage highlights that the OCC’s approvals signal a growing appetite among federal regulators to incorporate crypto custody into the mainstream banking framework, a trend that could shape how institutions access custody services, secure settlement rails, and manage risk across digital asset portfolios. The broader policy environment—encompassing the GENIUS Act and related discussions—will influence how quickly such charters are granted and how strict the accompanying safety standards will be. For now, Crypto.com’s milestone stands as a signal that regulated custody is moving from concept to practice, and that the regulatory path for digital asset custodians is becoming more defined, even as scrutiny and debates continue across Washington.

• Toncoin price is up 4% as key metrics like volume and TVL rise.
• A breakout above the $1.50 zone could result in upside momentum.
• If broader sentiment doesn’t invalidate the outlook, the next target could be above $2.

Toncoin (TON) is demonstrating resilience as a challenging crypto market sees several altcoins slump to new lows.

The token trades around $1.37 with a modest 4% gain in 24 hours, and it’s seeing a notable surge in trading volume.

The total value locked is also up and highlights a potential strength that could embolden bulls and allow them to target the $2.00 mark.

Toncoin’s bullish outlook, however, could be tempered by the broader sentiment across major cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin, which trades around $65,800 as bulls struggle with macro headwinds, highlights the bearish dangers.

Toncoin gains amid volume spike

Toncoin’s intraday gains to $1.37 buck the trend that saw BTC dip to under $65k before posting a slight recovery.

Other coins, including Ethereum, BNB and XRP, have notched downward moves amid growing negative sentiment in an increasingly risk-averse environment.

The 25% spike in daily trading volume to $80 million reflects the cryptocurrency’s likely upward strength.

Buyers have also bumped up open interest in TON, currently at $182 million.

While long positions account for nearly 70% of the “rekt” value in the past 24 hours, data shows more shorts have been liquidated in the past 12 hours.

Additionally, TON’s Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols has climbed to $165 million.

The global defi TVL stood at $204 billion at the time of writing, but was less than 0.7% up in the past 24 hours.

In comparison, TON had its TVL up by nearly 2% to signal increased interest in protocols on The Open Network.

Meanwhile, the stablecoin market cap on TON has also risen to $941 million, with USDT dominance at 79%.

These metrics suggest capital rotation into TON, rather than gains being driven by broad speculation.

TON price prediction: Is $2 next?

Toncoin approaches a pivotal technical juncture on the daily chart. Gains to intraday highs have bulls testing resistance from a descending trendline that has capped upside since late 2025.

A successful breakout could allow bulls to target the 50-day EMA. This hurdle currently sits near $1.48, a level aligning with recent consolidation zones and a key resistance line since Dec. 2024.

If the supply zone paves the way amid overall bullish sentiment, momentum could drive TON toward the 200-day EMA around $2.0.

This outlook might strengthen if neutral RSI readings near 43 flip higher and the daily MACD invalidates the bearish hint.

However, Bitcoin’s ongoing selloff pressure amid deleveraging and ETF outflows might pose a downward risk for the token.

Currently, macroeconomic headwinds have dragged BTC back to the $65k area.

A similar outlook for TON could bring the $1.12 support level into view.

USD1, the U.S. dollar stablecoin of World Liberty Financial — a crypto protocol with close links to President Donald Trump’s family — slipped from its $1 peg on Monday amid what the project’s developers described as a “coordinated attack” against the protocol.

The token fell to as low as $0.994 during the day, some 0.6% from its intended $1 anchor, CoinGecko data shows.

In a Monday X post, the team behind USD1 said multiple cofounder accounts were hacked, influencers were paid to sow doubt, and short positions were opened against the protocol’s native token, WLFI, in what they framed as a deliberate effort to stir panic and profit from it.

“It didn’t work,” the post said, saying that a redemption mechanism that allows USD1 holders to exchange their tokens for an equal amount of U.S. dollars as the reason the peg held firm.

However, the token still traded at $0.998, some 0.2% below its intended $1 price anchor, CoinGecko shows, which gathers price data from exchange pairs.

USD1, issued in partnership with crypto custodian BitGo (BITG) is among the largest dollar-backed stablecoins. Its value is backed 1:1 by short-term U.S. government treasuries, U.S. dollar deposits and other cash equivalents and reports monthly attestations of its reserve signed by consulting firm Crowe, according to BitGo. The token currently has a $5 billion market capitalization, but it still trails major players like Tether’s USDT USDT$1.0002 and Circle’s (USDC).

Read more: Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton, and Nicki Minaj: Inside Trump’s surreal Mar-a-Lago crypto summit

UPDATE (Feb. 23, 16:00 UTC): Adds details about USD1’s backing.

Justin Sun and his numerous cryptocurrency projects feature as both a plaintiff and a defendant in a variety of different lawsuits.

In fact, there are so many that keeping track can almost feel like a full time job. So, for those interested in that sort of thing, Protos has attempted to cut through the clutter and pulled together the suits involving Sun and his firms that we believe are most important.

Justin Sun’s fight with Huobi’s founder

Sun has been engaged in a series of disputes with Huobi founder Li Lin.

Initially, Sun accused Li’s brother, Li Wei, of taking advantage of the Huobi Token, specifically claiming that Li Wei had “received millions of HT tokens for free.”

This tweet was subsequently deleted.

Bitcoin price remains under pressure after rejection at range mid-resistance near $68,000, increasing the probability of a corrective move toward $60,000 support.

Bitcoin (BTC) price action continues to show signs of structural weakness following a rejection from the midrange, reinforcing the ongoing bearish market environment. After attempting to stabilize within the broader range, Bitcoin failed to reclaim a key resistance region near the point of control (POC) around $68,000, a level that has repeatedly dictated market direction.

The recent rejection highlights fragile price conditions, with sellers maintaining control across lower timeframes. Instead of transitioning into an upside expansion, Bitcoin has begun rotating lower within the established trading range, increasing the probability of a move toward the range low support near $60,000, where the yearly low currently sits.

From a broader perspective, Bitcoin remains locked within a corrective phase rather than a confirmed recovery trend, with technical signals favoring downside continuation unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

Bitcoin price key technical points

• Range mid resistance at $68,000 holding firm: Price continues to reject the point of control zone
• Weak bounce lacking volume confirmation: Buying pressure remains insufficient to reverse structure
• $60,000 range low support in focus: Next major downside target aligned with yearly support

The most important technical development in recent price action is Bitcoin’s inability to hold above the range mid-resistance. This area, located around $68,000, represents the point of control where the majority of recent trading volume has occurred. Acceptance above this level would have signaled a shift toward bullish continuation, but the rejection instead confirms ongoing distribution.

Following the rejection, Bitcoin established another local low near the value area low, reinforcing the bearish internal structure. Markets often trend through a sequence of lower highs and lower lows when sellers maintain dominance, and Bitcoin’s current behavior aligns with this pattern.

Although price managed to produce a short-term bounce after tapping liquidity below recent lows, the recovery lacked strong volume participation. Without a meaningful buying influx, relief rallies tend to act as temporary pauses rather than genuine reversals. This lack of conviction suggests that market participants remain hesitant to aggressively accumulate at current levels.

Liquidity sweep fails to trigger a strong reversal

Bitcoin recently tapped into resting liquidity near the lower boundary of value, a move that typically attracts buyers seeking discounted entries. However, the reaction following this liquidity sweep has been relatively muted. Instead of aggressive bullish expansion, price has continued to compress beneath resistance.

This behaviour indicates that the market may still be in a redistribution phase, where price rotates lower to locate stronger demand. When liquidity grabs fail to produce impulsive upside momentum, it often signals that deeper support levels remain unfinished targets.

As long as Bitcoin continues trading below the $68,000 range mid-resistance, sellers retain structural control. Each failed attempt to reclaim this level increases the likelihood of further downside exploration.

$60,000 range low emerges as key magnet

Technically, the next logical destination for price sits near the range low support at $60,000. This area represents a significant high-timeframe level, aligning with the yearly low and serving as a major liquidity pool within the broader range structure.

Markets frequently rotate between range extremes when equilibrium cannot be established at the midpoint. Given Bitcoin’s continued rejection at range mid and weakening momentum signals, a move toward range low support becomes statistically more probable.

The $60,000 level is expected to act as a major decision zone. Should price reach this region, traders will closely monitor whether buyers step in to defend support or if acceptance below opens the door for a deeper corrective phase.

What to expect in the coming price action

From a technical, price action, and market structure perspective, Bitcoin remains bearish while trading below the $68,000 range mid-resistance. Unless price reclaims and holds above this level, the probability favors continued downside rotation toward $60,000 support.

Short-term bounces may occur, but they are likely to remain corrective until bullish volume returns and structural resistance is decisively reclaimed.