The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) June meeting, released on 30 June, suggested that policymakers are not yet ready to rule out further policy tightening. Board members noted persistent excess demand and broad-based inflationary pressures across the economy, leaving the door open for another interest rate increase if required. Against this backdrop, the interest rate differential between Australia and the United States continues to support the Australian dollar, particularly as markets have scaled back expectations for further tightening by the Fed in the coming months. This combination of a relatively hawkish RBA and a more cautious Fed has helped underpin demand for the Australian dollar, although further macroeconomic data from both economies will likely be needed to reinforce this trend.

Technical Picture

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD recovered after declining from the 0.7080 area to June lows near 0.6865. During the rebound, the pair broke above its descending trendline, which some market participants may interpret as a sign that the previous downtrend has come to an end.

The pair is currently trading above the upper boundary of the current market profile at 0.6930 and is approaching the local high around 0.6960. Below the current price lies the Point of Control (POC) at approximately 0.6896, followed by the lower boundary of the market profile at 0.6887. This area could be viewed by buyers as a potential support zone.

Beneath this range sits the green support level 0.6865, representing the next significant reference point should a deeper correction develop. The RSI + MAs indicator remains close to the equilibrium zone, with readings of 55, 51, and 53. The moving averages are broadly flat, suggesting a lack of strong momentum and indicating that the market may be pausing before choosing its next direction.

Summary

The pair’s position above the market profile and the break of the descending trendline may be viewed as supportive for buyers. However, the approach towards the 0.6960 resistance area could limit further gains unless additional fundamental catalysts emerge.

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Key Takeaways

• JPMorgan identifies Strategy’s bitcoin selling as a minor concern compared to structural threats
• Private blockchain infrastructure adoption by financial institutions represents the primary challenge
• Financial institutions favor permissioned blockchains offering identity verification, confidentiality, and regulatory alignment
• Digital bank deposits on private chains could diminish demand for public blockchain stablecoins
• The tokenized real-world asset sector valued at $50 billion may increasingly migrate to private systems

While Strategy’s bitcoin selling activity has created concern among market participants, JPMorgan’s research team suggests cryptocurrency investors should focus their attention elsewhere.

According to a client briefing authored by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team, the more substantial challenge originates from legacy financial institutions constructing blockchain infrastructure that circumvents public networks such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Should critical financial functions including tokenization, payment processing, and transaction settlement migrate toward private, controlled infrastructure, public blockchain networks may experience diminished transaction activity, reduced market liquidity, and constrained capital inflows.

“Strategy does not represent the primary structural challenge facing bitcoin,” the research team stated. Their analysis emphasizes that institutional blockchain implementation is completely sidestepping public cryptocurrency networks.

Strategy currently maintains custody of approximately 4% of bitcoin’s total circulating supply. The company’s structured Bitcoin Monetization Program has established bidirectional market flow. While JPMorgan recognizes this arrangement may generate intermittent downward price pressure, analysts characterized it as a subordinate consideration.

Financial Institutions Favor Permissioned Networks

Traditional financial entities are migrating toward permissioned blockchain architectures because these systems deliver privacy management, customer identification compliance, legal recourse mechanisms, and regulatory clarity — capabilities that public blockchains struggle to replicate.

JPMorgan referenced its proprietary Kinexys platform as a case study. This permissioned network has facilitated more than $4 trillion in aggregate transaction volume for institutional participants.

The Bank for International Settlements has similarly cautioned against deploying public blockchains for critical financial infrastructure components. Instead, the BIS advocates for permissioned unified ledger frameworks.

Financial institutions are engineering tokenized deposit instruments — digitized representations of conventional bank deposits operating within established banking regulations and deposit protection schemes. Widespread implementation of these instruments could substantially decrease institutional reliance on stablecoins for payment functions.

SWIFT’s blockchain exploration and sovereign digital currency initiatives including the digital euro and digital yuan may additionally reinforce these regulated alternative systems.

Tokenized Asset Market Faces Strategic Inflection

The market for tokenized real-world assets presently stands at approximately $50 billion in value. A considerable portion currently resides on Ethereum, though JPMorgan analysts attribute this distribution primarily to initial experimentation phases.

As institutional participation expands, asset issuance, custody arrangements, and settlement operations may progressively transition toward private infrastructure frameworks that more effectively address identity management, confidentiality standards, and governance protocols.

Public blockchain networks may retain relevance for asset distribution and constrained secondary market activity, but could experience declining centrality in the ecosystem.

The research team additionally highlighted the DTCC’s development of tokenization processes on permissioned infrastructure, while noting Securitize has deployed tokenized assets across Solana and Avalanche through regulated channels.

Even assuming the CLARITY Act achieves legislative passage this year, JPMorgan maintains it may prove insufficient to address these fundamental structural challenges. The analysts suggested the legislation could potentially accelerate banks’ tokenized deposit issuance capabilities, thereby reinforcing their competitive positioning.

The team indicated their assessment could shift if public and private blockchain ecosystems evolve in parallel, stablecoins expand under enhanced regulatory frameworks, or bitcoin sustains its trajectory primarily as a value preservation asset.

Ether is already seeing tangible activity from Robinhood’s newly launched layer-2 network. According to Token Terminal, more than $70 million worth of ETH has been bridged to Robinhood Chain within its first week, underscoring how quickly large user platforms can route on-chain liquidity into an Ethereum scaling environment.

Robinhood Chain launched on July 1 as an EVM-compatible, Arbitrum-based layer-2 that uses ETH as its native gas token. The network also positions itself as “AI-native and purpose-built for real-world assets,” while Robinhood continues expanding tokenized stock offerings to customers across more than 120 countries—an effort that has contributed to growing interest in blockchain rails for traditional market exposure.

Key takeaways

• Token Terminal reports over $70 million of ETH bridged to Robinhood Chain in the first week, signaling fast liquidity onboarding.
• DefiLlama data shows Robinhood Chain TVL at 46,748 ETH (about $83 million at current prices), with Thursday inflows alone totaling 31,855 ETH (about $55 million).
• Early usage appears ETH-denominated, with Uniswap founder Hayden Adams saying most activity uses ETH as the primary trading and settlement “base pair.”
• Analysts argue the structure could create recurring ETH demand via gas usage on an Arbitrum-based network tied to Ethereum settlement.
• Even with bullish network metrics, ETH remains in a weak price regime, trading near multi-year bear market lows after a sharp decline from its 2025 peak.

ETH inflows accelerate after Robinhood Chain’s launch

Robinhood Chain’s first-week numbers suggest the network is attracting meaningful capital flow almost immediately. Token Terminal said the amount of Ether bridged to the chain surpassed $70 million within seven days of launch. In a Thursday post, Token Terminal also argued that if adoption continues, the chain could become “a meaningful new source of demand for ETH.”

The mechanism matters for Ethereum watchers. Robinhood Chain uses ETH as the gas token, meaning everyday on-chain activity on the network directly connects to ETH consumption. Unlike layer-2 designs that rely on alternative gas assets, an ETH-native setup aligns the economics of user transactions with the asset traders typically benchmark on.

On-chain engagement: users, revenue, and locked value

Token Terminal’s view of network performance extended beyond bridged amounts. It reported that Robinhood Chain reached 194,000 daily active users within its first week, while daily revenue grew to $39,000—an annualized run rate of roughly $14 million at the time of reporting.

DefiLlama’s protocol page for the Robinhood Chain bridge shows figures broadly consistent with the “fast start” narrative. It placed total value locked at 46,748 ETH, worth around $83 million based on prevailing market prices, and recorded Thursday inflows of 31,855 ETH (about $55 million). While TVL can be influenced by multiple factors, the magnitude of daily inflows is notable for a chain so early in its lifecycle.

Hayden Adams, Uniswap founder, added another useful datapoint: he said most activity on Robinhood Chain is ETH-denominated. In his description, ETH functions as the base pair for trading, the highest volume asset, and the gas token used to pay for blockspace. He also said ETH is burned on Ethereum layer 1 to cover data storage fees, tying part of the L2’s operational cost back to the mainnet.

Why investors are watching the “L2 flywheel”

The recurring-demand argument is at the center of the bullish reaction from several quarters. Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, told Cointelegraph the early volume “validates the L2 flywheel” and characterized it as a “meaningful new demand sink.” His broader point was that when ETH is the native gas token on a high-velocity Arbitrum-based network, transactions can translate into ongoing, measurable demand while capital remains locked and a large user base gets onboarded.

“By using ETH as the native gas token on this high-velocity Arbitrum L2, every transaction I track creates direct, recurring demand while locking capital and onboarding Robinhood’s massive user base.”

Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, similarly framed the development as structurally positive for ETH. He emphasized that Robinhood Chain’s use of ETH for gas is the most direct benefit: as bridged assets, wallet activity, and on-chain transactions increase, new demand for ETH is generated.

Sun also pointed to a larger strategic implication. He said the deeper significance is not only how much gas is consumed, but that Robinhood is building its own on-chain financial ecosystem within the Ethereum network. In his view, this reinforces Ethereum mainnet’s role as the settlement layer and liquidity foundation for tokenized assets.

This matters because much of Ethereum’s long-term value thesis is tied to its function in real-world asset tokenization. The article from RWA.xyz cited in the source indicated that Ethereum and its layer-2 ecosystem together hold more than 50% market share in that segment, and the Robinhood Chain launch could further strengthen Ethereum’s position if it successfully attracts tokenized RWA usage at scale.

Tokenized assets meet an institutional-grade user pipeline

Robinhood’s involvement provides an important angle for the market: distribution. The platform has offered tokenized stocks to customers in more than 120 countries, reflecting sustained demand for tokenized exposure to US equities. If tokenized assets continue moving onto blockchains, networks that integrate ETH-based settlement and on-chain execution can capture both trading and transaction demand.

The tension for Ethereum traders is that network fundamentals do not always translate into immediate price action. ETH prices ticked up on Friday to $1,775, but it still trades near multi-year bear market lows—down 64% from its August 2025 peak, according to the figures referenced in the source. That means the key question for participants is whether early technical traction evolves into durable usage that can influence broader market expectations.

Bulls argue Ethereum’s growth path rests on multiple stacked drivers, including RWA tokenization, agentic AI payments, institutional adoption, and ongoing scaling upgrades. The source also pointed to Glamsterdam, expected before the end of 2026, as a network upgrade that could increase layer-1 capacity—an important piece of the scalability puzzle for any ecosystem hoping to absorb additional tokenized asset demand over time.

For now, the focus should stay on measurable signals: whether Robinhood Chain’s ETH-denominated activity sustains beyond the initial launch window, how TVL and daily revenue trend week-to-week, and whether tokenized asset usage meaningfully increases the number of users interacting with on-chain contracts.

The amount of Ether bridged to Robinhood’s new layer-2 blockchain exceeded $70 million in just the first week, according to Token Terminal. 

Robinhood Chain, an EVM-compatible Arbitrum-based layer-2 network that uses ETH as its native gas token, launched on July 1 with the company describing it as “AI-native and purpose-built for real-world assets.” 

“If adoption continues, the chain could become a meaningful new source of demand for ETH,” said Token Terminal on Thursday. 

Robinhood has also offered tokenized stocks to customers in more than 120 countries, responding to a surging demand for tokenized US equities. Ethereum and its layer-2 scaling networks have been a popular choice for tokenized real-world assets (RWA) with more than 50% market share, according to RWA.xyz, and this move could cement that position even further. 

Turning liquidity into economic activity

“Robinhood Chain is rapidly turning liquidity into economic activity,” said Token Terminal in a separate post on X. 

Robinhood Chain’s daily active users reached 194,000 while daily revenue has grown to $39,000, equivalent to a $14 million annualized revenue run rate, within the chain’s first week, it said. 

DefiLlama, a decentralized finance data platform, shows similar figures, showing Robinhood Chain has a total value locked of 46,748 ETH, worth around $83 million at current market prices. Thursday’s inflows alone totaled 31,855 ETH, or around $55 million.  

Uniswap founder Hayden Adams said Friday that most of what is happening on the Robinhood Chain is ETH-denominated. 

“It’s the base pair for trading, the highest volume asset, and the gas token to pay for blockspace. It also burns ETH on L1 to pay data storage fees,” he added. 

ETH bridged to Robinhood Chain tops $70 million. Source: Token Terminal 

Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, told Cointelegraph that it was “strongly bullish” and early volume “validates the L2 flywheel,” as a “meaningful new demand sink.”

“By using ETH as the native gas token on this high-velocity Arbitrum L2, every transaction I track creates direct, recurring demand while locking capital and onboarding Robinhood’s massive user base.” 

Related: L1s face decentralization ‘tug-of-war’ as adoption grows: Injective CEO

Tim Sun, HashKey Group senior researcher, said it was “a clear, structural positive for ETH.”

“For Ethereum, the most direct benefit is that Robinhood Chain uses ETH for gas,” he said. “As bridged assets, wallet addresses, and on-chain transactions grow, new demand for ETH is generated.”

“However, the deeper significance lies not just in how much gas is consumed, but in Robinhood’s choice to build its own on-chain financial ecosystem within the Ethereum network. This further solidifies the Ethereum mainnet’s position as the ultimate settlement layer and liquidity foundation for tokenized assets.”

Bulls argue Ethereum’s long-term growth thesis comes from RWA tokenization, agentic AI payments, institutional adoption and network upgrades, such as Glamsterdam, expected before the end of 2026, which is expected to increase layer 1 capacity. 

ETH prices ticked up on Friday to reach $1,775 but remain at multi-year bear market lows, down 64% from their August 2025 peak. 

Features: The biggest blockchain upgrades still to come in 2026

The European Parliament has passed legislation allowing tech firms to scan messages for child sexual abuse material until 2028, a controversial law dubbed “chat control” by critics.

EU lawmakers on Thursday largely voted against extending the regulation, dubbed “Chat Control 1.0,” but stopping it required 361 lawmakers to reject it. Only 314 voted to stop the law, and 276 supported it.

The vote advances reviving the “chat control” rules that expired in April, and has been a controversial topic among privacy and cryptography advocates, as the originally designed law breaks the principle behind encrypting messages.

Parliament, however, passed an exemption to exclude “communications to which end-to-end encryption is, has been or will be applied,” handing a small win to cypherpunks.

Pirate Party MEP Markéta Gregorová, whose party put forward the amendment to exempt end-to-end encrypted messages, said its success was “a bittersweet victory.” 

“Protecting encryption was one of our priorities, and I am therefore glad that we managed to secure an absolute majority for an amendment that at least preserves encryption. At the same time, however, voluntary mass scanning unfortunately passed,” she said.

The law’s supporters argue it is vital to protect children and combat the spread of abusive material.

The parliament’s laws with amendments will be sent back to the Council of the EU, a body of ministers from the bloc’s member nations who will approve or reject the legislation.

Chat Control battle “just getting started”

The vote on Thursday comes after the European Parliament voted through a rarely used urgent procedure on Tuesday that brought lawmakers back to vote on whether to extend a legal framework for the laws that expired in April.

Since the framework expired, messaging platforms such as WhatsApp have been allowed to take their own voluntary measures to seek out those sharing abusive material.

In March, Parliament had rejected a temporary extension of the scheme while a new permanent version of the law, dubbed “Chat Control 2.0,” was under discussion, before the European People’s Party, the largest group in Parliament, revived the extension in the urgent procedure vote on Tuesday.

The party had largely voted against extending the laws in March because of amendments that restricted the scope of scans, but its leader, Manfred Weber, has been looking for ways to push through the extension without changes.

Related: EU committee advances digital euro bill after key vote

Breyer, the former MEP, said the “political battle over the permanent ‘Chat Control 2.0’ is just getting started.”

“The resistance we saw in Parliament today was so strong that finding a majority for permanent, suspicionless mass scanning in future negotiations is a complete pipe dream,” he said.

Negotiations for the permanent law, or “Chat Control 2.0,” will resume in September, with lawmakers disputing whether message scanning should be targeted or applied broadly.

Features: Crypto industry looks to stablecoins and DeFi revisions in MiCA 2.0

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost a net $95 million on Thursday, per SoSoValue data, while ether ETFs shed about $52 million, ending a five-day inflow run that had been the steadier side of the market.

Fidelity’s FBTC drove the bitcoin outflow with roughly $63 million, followed by ARKB at about $40 million. BlackRock’s IBIT was flat, neither adding nor losing money, and VanEck’s HODL and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT were the only funds in the green. Total bitcoin ETF assets sit near $77 billion.

Ether’s reversal was broader. Fidelity’s FETH lost about $34 million and BlackRock’s ETHA roughly $13 million, with Bitwise and BlackRock’s second fund also negative. No ether fund posted an inflow, and net assets held at about $9 billion.

The flows are lagging the tape. Bitcoin rose 3.5% on Friday to nearly $64,000 and is up 4.2% on the week, recovering everything it lost when Trump warned that strikes on Iran could intensify.

Ether added 2.6% to $1,760. The rally came out of Asia, where South Korea’s Kospi jumped 4% on renewed AI-demand optimism and SK Hynix priced $26.5 billion of American depositary shares.

Institutional money has now sat out most of a month in which bitcoin has traded between roughly $59,000 and $66,000 without breaking either way.