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IBM Stock Just Had Its Worst Day Since 2000 – Jefferies Says Buy the Dip

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TLDR

  • IBM stock has dropped 28.6% in under a month, falling from $312.95 to $223.35
  • The selloff was triggered by Anthropic highlighting COBOL functionality in Claude Code, raising fears AI could erode IBM’s legacy business
  • Jefferies analyst Brent Thill maintained a Buy rating with a $370 price target, calling the dip a buying opportunity
  • IBM’s watsonx Code Assistant for Z has been available since Q4 2023 and already converts COBOL to Java using generative AI
  • IBM announced a new partnership with Deepgram, making it the first voice partner integrated into watsonx Orchestrate

IBM stock has had a rough few weeks. It has fallen 28.6% in less than a month, dropping from $312.95 on February 2 to $223.35, putting it near its 52-week low.

The single biggest blow came when the stock dropped 13% in one day — its largest single-day decline since 2000.

The catalyst was a blog post from Anthropic. The AI company highlighted COBOL functionality in its Claude Code platform, pointing out that hundreds of billions of COBOL lines remain active across finance, airlines, and government sectors.

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IBM Stock Card
International Business Machines Corporation, IBM

That spooked investors. IBM has long been a key player in COBOL-dependent systems like payment processing and financial infrastructure. The fear: AI could reduce demand for IBM’s legacy COBOL services.

The broader selloff also reflects a market-wide shift away from legacy tech, with investors moving toward quantum computing startups and high-yield bonds.

Jefferies Holds Its Ground

Not everyone is running. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill pushed back on the panic, arguing IBM is “already disrupting itself.”

Thill pointed to IBM’s watsonx Code Assistant for Z, which has been generally available since Q4 2023. The tool uses generative AI to convert COBOL into Java, interpret production code, and update legacy applications.

He argues this gives IBM a structural edge over general-purpose AI coding tools, which lack native access to mainframe data and operational context.

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Thill also noted that IBM is building for a “multi-model, agentic world” by partnering with Anthropic, OpenAI, and others — meaning the very companies seen as threats are also partners.

He called the selloff a “near-term sentiment overhang on legacy services rather than an existential or structural risk” and maintained his Buy rating with a $370 price target, implying 66% upside from current levels.

Eleven other analysts share his bullish view. Five analysts have a Hold rating and one has a Sell, giving IBM a Moderate Buy consensus. The average price target sits at $337.53, pointing to roughly 51% upside over 12 months.

IBM Adds Voice AI Partner

On the same day, IBM announced a collaboration with Deepgram, making it IBM’s first voice AI partner.

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Deepgram’s speech-to-text and text-to-speech technology will be embedded into IBM’s watsonx Orchestrate platform, allowing users to interact with AI agents using natural speech.

The integration supports multiple languages and dialects, including Arabic and Indian variants, and targets use cases in customer care, call analysis, and voice-driven data entry in healthcare and finance.

IBM’s P/E ratio currently sits at 20.3, and at least one analysis flags the stock as undervalued relative to its fair value.

Historically, IBM has only seen one comparable dip of 30% or more in under 30 days since 2010. Following that event, the stock posted a peak recovery of 42% within 12 months.

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Bitcoin ETF inflows hit highest level since February

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ProShares introduces first CoinDesk 20 Crypto ETF under ticker KRYP

Bitcoin traded around $68,780 on Tuesday as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest daily inflow in more than a month.

Funds added a combined $471 million on April 6, according to SoSoValue data, marking the largest inflow since Feb. 25 and the sixth-biggest daily total this year. The figure remains below January’s peak flow regime, when multiple trading days topped $700 million.

These high inflows come as bitcoin continues to stall below $70,000, with weak spot demand and distribution by large holders capping upside. ETFs have increasingly offset that pressure, acting as a primary source of marginal buying.

Macro signals offer limited direction. Markets are pricing a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its April meeting, according to Polymarket data, with minimal expectations for near-term cuts or hikes.

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Bitcoin’s relationship with global monetary policy may be shifting, with ETFs changing not just the scale of demand but its timing.

A recent Binance Research report finds bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, has turned sharply negative since 2024, the same year U.S. spot ETFs were approved. Before then, bitcoin tended to follow easing cycles with a lag. That relationship has now flipped, with the inverse effect nearly three times stronger.

The shift reflects who sets the marginal price. Retail once reacted to macro after the fact. ETF-driven institutional flows are more forward-looking, positioning ahead of expected policy moves.

“BTC may have evolved from a macro ‘lagging receiver’ to a ‘leading pricer,’” Binance Research wrote.

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ETF inflows continue to absorb supply and anchor prices, which could explain the continued daily inflow.

If what Binance Research proposes holds, bitcoin may keep trading as a forward-looking asset, pricing in central bank pivots before traditional markets rather than reacting to them after the fact.

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US Bankruptcy Filings Spike 14% in Q1 2026: What’s Driving the Surge

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Total US bankruptcy filings climbed 14% in the first quarter of 2026, reaching 150,009 cases between January and March, up from 132,094 during the same period last year.

The increase spans consumer and commercial categories alike, according to data from Epiq AACER published by the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI).

US Bankruptcy Filings Surge As Inflation Takes Its Toll

Small business filings showed the most dramatic acceleration. Subchapter V elections surged 67% to 833 from 499 a year earlier. Commercial Chapter 11 filings also rose 37%, climbing from 1,764 to 2,422.

Consumer filings told a similar story. Individual Chapter 7 cases increased 17% to 89,259. Chapter 13 filings rose 8% to 51,962. Total consumer filings reached 141,573. But what’s behind the rise? 

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“Persistent inflation, high interest rates, restricted credit, and global instability continue to compound the economic challenges of struggling families and small businesses,” ABI Executive Director Amy Quackenboss stated.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest report on household finances underlines the pressure. Household debt hit $18.8 trillion by the end of Q4 2025. Credit card balances reached $1.28 trillion, with notable deterioration in mortgage and student loan arrears as well.

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Legislative Response and Outlook

Congress is weighing measures to ease access to bankruptcy protection. Legislation introduced recently by Senator Chuck Grassley in the Senate and Representative Ben Cline would permanently raise the small business reorganization threshold for Chapter 11 to $7.5 million. It would also lift the Chapter 13 debt ceiling to $2.75 million.

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However, relief may not come quickly. The IMF has projected that US inflation will not return to the Fed’s 2% target until early 2027, suggesting elevated borrowing costs will persist well into next year.

Meanwhile, the US national debt recently surpassed $39 trillion, adding further strain to an already stretched fiscal environment. Whether legislative action can keep pace with growing financial distress remains an open question heading into Q2.

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The post US Bankruptcy Filings Spike 14% in Q1 2026: What’s Driving the Surge appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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XRP slips to $1.31 after failed breakout as liquidity dries up

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XRP slips to $1.31 after failed breakout as liquidity dries up


Rejection at $1.35 and collapsing depth raise risk of sharper moves as positioning builds.

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Indonesian Authorities Used Crypto Data to Convict Criminals

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Indonesian Authorities Used Crypto Data to Convict Criminals

Onchain evidence was key to securing the conviction of three individuals for terrorism financing in Indonesia in 2024 and 2025, reflecting a clear shift in the way courts value onchain evidence.

“Indonesian courts have demonstrated that cryptocurrency evidence — wallet addresses, transaction histories, on-chain flows — is not only admissible but can anchor a terrorism financing prosecution,” TRM said in a statement Sunday.

TRM said terrorism financing networks have preferred cryptocurrency as a mechanism of choice to move money, as authorities and regulators have been slow to treat it with the same level of scrutiny as traditional fiat channels, but noted that this is now changing. 

Indonesian authorities traced one defendant sending more than $49,000 worth of USDt (USDT) across 15 transactions from a local exchange to a foreign platform, with the funds later routed to an ISIS-linked terrorism fundraising campaign in Syria, according to the blockchain firm. 

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Indonesia’s financial intelligence team and its counterterrorism police unit, Densus 88, carried out the analysis and presented the findings to Indonesian courts, which accepted the blockchain data as key evidence in each of the three cases.

Source: TRM Labs

Indonesia is not the only country in Southeast Asia using blockchain analytics to catch criminals, TRM said.

“Similar patterns are emerging across Southeast Asia, where governments are investing in blockchain intelligence capabilities and enhancing collaboration between public and private sectors to address illicit finance risks.”

TRM Labs said that Singapore and Malaysia’s financial intelligence units and law enforcement agencies are also building the technical capacity to trace cryptocurrency flows.

Related: Drift Protocol says $280M exploit took ‘months of deliberate preparation’ 

On April 1, Cambodian and Chinese officials captured Li Xiong, a leader of the Huione Group, an organization that served scam centers in Cambodia that carried out “pig butchering” frauds and other investment schemes to steal crypto from victims around the world. 

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Xiong was extradited to China, where he is set to face fraud and money-laundering charges. 

His extradition came three months after the arrest of Chen Zhi, the head of Prince Group, which operates Huione Group.

TRM reported in February that illicit entities received about $141 billion worth of stablecoins in 2025, marking a five-year high.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?

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