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IBM Stock Just Had Its Worst Day Since 2000 – Jefferies Says Buy the Dip

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IBM Stock Card

TLDR

  • IBM stock has dropped 28.6% in under a month, falling from $312.95 to $223.35
  • The selloff was triggered by Anthropic highlighting COBOL functionality in Claude Code, raising fears AI could erode IBM’s legacy business
  • Jefferies analyst Brent Thill maintained a Buy rating with a $370 price target, calling the dip a buying opportunity
  • IBM’s watsonx Code Assistant for Z has been available since Q4 2023 and already converts COBOL to Java using generative AI
  • IBM announced a new partnership with Deepgram, making it the first voice partner integrated into watsonx Orchestrate

IBM stock has had a rough few weeks. It has fallen 28.6% in less than a month, dropping from $312.95 on February 2 to $223.35, putting it near its 52-week low.

The single biggest blow came when the stock dropped 13% in one day — its largest single-day decline since 2000.

The catalyst was a blog post from Anthropic. The AI company highlighted COBOL functionality in its Claude Code platform, pointing out that hundreds of billions of COBOL lines remain active across finance, airlines, and government sectors.

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IBM Stock Card
International Business Machines Corporation, IBM

That spooked investors. IBM has long been a key player in COBOL-dependent systems like payment processing and financial infrastructure. The fear: AI could reduce demand for IBM’s legacy COBOL services.

The broader selloff also reflects a market-wide shift away from legacy tech, with investors moving toward quantum computing startups and high-yield bonds.

Jefferies Holds Its Ground

Not everyone is running. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill pushed back on the panic, arguing IBM is “already disrupting itself.”

Thill pointed to IBM’s watsonx Code Assistant for Z, which has been generally available since Q4 2023. The tool uses generative AI to convert COBOL into Java, interpret production code, and update legacy applications.

He argues this gives IBM a structural edge over general-purpose AI coding tools, which lack native access to mainframe data and operational context.

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Thill also noted that IBM is building for a “multi-model, agentic world” by partnering with Anthropic, OpenAI, and others — meaning the very companies seen as threats are also partners.

He called the selloff a “near-term sentiment overhang on legacy services rather than an existential or structural risk” and maintained his Buy rating with a $370 price target, implying 66% upside from current levels.

Eleven other analysts share his bullish view. Five analysts have a Hold rating and one has a Sell, giving IBM a Moderate Buy consensus. The average price target sits at $337.53, pointing to roughly 51% upside over 12 months.

IBM Adds Voice AI Partner

On the same day, IBM announced a collaboration with Deepgram, making it IBM’s first voice AI partner.

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Deepgram’s speech-to-text and text-to-speech technology will be embedded into IBM’s watsonx Orchestrate platform, allowing users to interact with AI agents using natural speech.

The integration supports multiple languages and dialects, including Arabic and Indian variants, and targets use cases in customer care, call analysis, and voice-driven data entry in healthcare and finance.

IBM’s P/E ratio currently sits at 20.3, and at least one analysis flags the stock as undervalued relative to its fair value.

Historically, IBM has only seen one comparable dip of 30% or more in under 30 days since 2010. Following that event, the stock posted a peak recovery of 42% within 12 months.

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Argentina Blocks Polymarket as Crackdown on Prediction Markets Expands

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Crypto Breaking News

Court Orders Remedial Reflex

In Buenos Aires, a court directed regulators to impose tight controls of access. The telecom regulator ENACOM also liaised with the internet companies to shut down the site. Google and Apple were also asked to take the app out of their stores. The reason why these actions are taken is to restrict access to the users in the country.

This has caused regulators to tighten their belts due to apprehension caused by activity associated with inflation data. It was reported that the platform made predictions of Argentina’s inflation rate in February before it was officially released. Besides, authorities reported that the prediction was altered minutes before publishing. This chain of events triggered the need to further research how the platform functions.

Researchers came to the conclusion that the platform served as a web-based betting platform. Regulators also said it enabled the users to participate in wagering without licenses. Also regulators were worried about access by minors. These results resulted in even tougher steps to be taken against the platform.

Latin America’s Crackdown Continues

The move is in line with other actions taken by Colombia. Polymarket was later blocked in the country due to similar complaints raised against unlicensed gambling services. Therefore, Argentina became the second country to ban the platform in the region. Such a trend underscores the developing regional integration in the area of regulatory enforcement.

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Regulatory examination does not just end at Latin America; it extends to other markets. It has been reported that websites like Kalshi have been involved in court cases in the United States due to allegations of unregulated betting services. It has also been reported that unpaid wagers have been involved in cases of dispute that are associated with geopolitical activities. Regulators and legal authorities have paid more attention to such developments.

Polymarket has also addressed criticism by eliminating some of the markets. Additionally, the site has recently shut down a market for nuclear risk forecasts after being pressured by the publicity. More so, the shutdown was done through the high geopolitical tensions. This is in response to efforts to deal with concerns as the regulatory pressure persists. Argentina has imposed a nationwide ban on Polymarket following the discovery of unlicensed betting operations and a ban on platforms. The relocation is in line with the larger international desire to control prediction market sites and restrict illegal gambling solutions.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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US Lawmakers Introduce Bill to Crack Down on Prediction Markets War Bets

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Law, Congress, United States, Prediction Markets

Two Democratic lawmakers in the US Congress have introduced legislation in response to “government corruption” over bets on prediction markets platforms.

In a Tuesday announcement, Texas Representative Greg Casar and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy said they had introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and ​Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act after several Polymarket accounts made “highly unusual bets” that a war between the US and Israel against Iran would begin.

Murphy said on March 4 that it was likely that people with “inside information” of US President Donald Trump’s plan to bomb Iran had made the bets.

“We shouldn’t live in a country where someone sitting in the situation room making decisions about whether to invade or to bomb, decisions about war and peace, life and death, that those decisions could be driven by the fact that they have hundreds of thousands of dollars riding on the decision,” said Casar.

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Law, Congress, United States, Prediction Markets
Source: Representative Greg Casar

The bill is the latest twist in US lawmakers’ efforts to crack down on prediction market platforms and accounts allegedly using insider information to profit from government actions. Last week, California Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act to prevent prediction markets platforms from listing events contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination and individual deaths.

Related: Arizona AG files charges against Kalshi over ‘illegal gambling‘

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi offer bets on a variety of outcomes, including sporting events and US politics. However, users betting on the specifics of the US-Israel conflict with Iran have ignited controversy in many areas of government. On Monday, a military correspondent with the Times of Israel said that he had received death threats over his report of the date when an Iranian missile had struck Israel, all “in order to resolve a prediction on Polymarket.”

War-related bets still live on Polymarket

As of Tuesday, Polymarket still offered users the opportunity to place bets on the outcomes of several potential decisions in the US-Israel conflict against Iran, including on whether the US would send ground forces into the country, when a ceasefire might happen, and changes to Iranian leadership.

“The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society,” said Polymarket in a note on Middle East markets. “That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and [X, formerly Twitter] could not.”

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Kalshi, in contrast, offered event contracts related to the Iranian conflict but not on specific military actions, such as if the country might reach a nuclear deal with the US and whether Trump or other elected officials might visit Iran.

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