Crypto World
ICP to add 20% revenue burn in new tokenomics shift
ICP adds 20% revenue-funded burns and usage-based node rewards to align supply with demand.
Summary
- 80% of Internet Computer cloud engine revenue will go to node providers, while 20% will buy and burn ICP, creating a usage-linked supply reduction.
- Node providers will shift from fixed subsidies to compensation tied directly to compute demand, aligning incentives with real network activity.
- The updated model mirrors other compute-focused chains that use fee-funded burns and demand-driven payouts to reward infrastructure and curb token inflation.
The DFINITY Foundation announced plans to update Internet Computer’s tokenomics to include a burn mechanism funded by network revenue, according to a statement from the organization.
Under the new model, 80% of revenue generated by Internet Computer cloud engines will be distributed to node providers operating the infrastructure, while the remaining 20% will be used to purchase and burn ICP tokens, the foundation stated. Node provider associations have begun preparations to market cloud engines, according to the announcement.
The current system provides node providers with fixed payments for maintaining network operations regardless of workload demand. The updated structure will tie node compensation directly to usage-driven revenue from compute services, linking incentives to actual network activity, the foundation said.
The change represents a shift from a fixed-subsidy model toward a usage-based economic framework for the Internet Computer network, according to DFINITY.
The revenue allocation directs a portion of funds to token burns, creating a demand-linked supply reduction mechanism as network adoption increases. The majority of revenue will flow to infrastructure operators to incentivize capacity provision and service reliability, the foundation stated.
Similar usage-based token economic models have been implemented in other compute-oriented blockchain networks, industry observers noted.
The transition aligns network incentives with usage while introducing a structural supply reduction mechanism tied to adoption levels, according to the foundation’s announcement.
Crypto World
Can the crypto market rebound as SEC clarifies that most cryptocurrencies are non securities?
The crypto market remained unfazed on Wednesday shortly after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission clarified that most of the cryptocurrencies in the market would not be considered a security under federal law.
Summary
- The crypto market remained largely muted after the SEC clarified its framework for determining whether tokens qualify as securities.
- Bitcoin held near the $74,000 level while major altcoins showed limited movement, keeping total market capitalization around $2.61 trillion.
- Investor focus shifted to macro catalysts, with traders positioning cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and expectations for delayed rate cuts.
Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest crypto asset, traded at $73,909 with no net movement over the daily period after it gave up most of its gains from the past day when it surged past the $75,000 resistance.
Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Chainlink (LINK) were some of the major crypto assets that also showed relative calmness with minor gains on Wednesday. Together, these assets provided little volatility for the broader market, with the total crypto market cap stalling at $2.61 trillion.
On Tuesday night, the U.S. SEC issued a notice that clarifies how the securities watchdog would determine if a token would be deemed securities or not and how a non-security asset can be part of an investment contract under the Howey Test.
While the SEC did not broadly classify most cryptocurrencies as non-securities, the updated framework suggests that many tokens may fall outside securities laws depending on their structure, distribution, and use case.
Previously, the agency’s stance on which cryptocurrencies could be deemed securities remained unclear, creating significant uncertainty for market participants navigating the regulatory landscape.
The new crypto asset taxonomy provides much-needed clarity, but the SEC also classified 16 major crypto assets as digital commodities, outside the jurisdiction of securities law. These include prominent tokens like Litecoin and Cardano.
Other key developments supporting market sentiment include SEC Chair Paul Atkins’ recent proposal for a crypto safe harbor framework.
While such a development is a major win for the crypto industry, which has faced years of legal uncertainty, the market’s relatively muted reaction comes from a cautious atmosphere as investors await the outcome of Fed rate cut decisions later today at 2:30 P.M. ET.
Markets expect that the Fed will keep rates steady in the current range of 3.50% to 3.75%. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 96% to 99% odds that the Fed will hold interest rates, with only a marginal 1% to 4% chance of a cut.
Traders also seemed to have pushed back their expectations for the next rate cut, with many now anticipating the first reduction of 2026 to occur no earlier than September or October.
Typically, when investors expect a delay in Fed rate cuts, risk assets such as cryptocurrencies tend to lose momentum as investors step back, often awaiting clearer macroeconomic catalysts before reengaging with the market.
Total crypto market open interest dipped slightly over the past day, signaling traders are closing positions ahead of potential volatility.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Crypto World
Bitrefill blames North Korea-linked Lazarus hacker group for compromising 18,500 purchase records
Cryptocurrency payments and gift card platform Bitrefill has blamed the North Korea-linked hacking group Lazarus for a cyberattack on March 1, 2026, that compromised parts of its infrastructure and cryptocurrency wallets.
The attackers gained access to production keys, transferred funds from hot wallets, and exposed 18,500 purchase records containing emails, payment addresses, and IP addresses.
Approximately 1,000 records included encrypted usernames. Affected users were notified. Operations have resumed, with the company announcing to cover losses from operational capital. The incident underscores the importance of vigilance regarding crypto and on-chain security.
The modus operandi included malware, on-chain tracing and reused IP and email addresses and was similar to previous attacks attributed to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, also known as Bluenoroff, the company said in a detailed report on X.
The Lazarus Group has previously targeted crypto projects including Ronin Network, Harmony’s Horizon Bridge, WazirX, and Atomic Wallet.
How the attack unfolded
It all began with with a compromised employee laptop, which exposed legacy credentials and allowed attackers to access Bitrefill’s broader infrastructure, including parts of its database and cryptocurrency wallets.
The breach quickly became apparent when the company noticed unusual purchasing patterns among certain suppliers, signaling that attackers were exploiting its gift card inventory and supply chains. The firm also noted that attackers were draining some hot wallets and moving funds to their own addresses, following which, the system was taken offline to contain the damage.
“Bitrefill operates a global e-commerce business with dozens of suppliers, thousands of products, and multiple payment methods across many countries. Safely switching all these things off and bringing them back online is not trivial,” the company said in a statement.
Since the incident, Bitrefill has been working with security researchers, incident response teams, on-chain analysts, and law enforcement to investigate the breach.
Customer data impact
Hackers accessed a small set of purchase records, approximately 18,500, containing
Bitrefill said there is no evidence that customer data was a primary target. Its logs indicate that attackers ran a limited number of queries aimed at cryptocurrency holdings and gift card inventory rather than extracting the entire database.
The platform stores minimal personal data and does not require mandatory KYC. A small subset of purchase records, approximately 18,500, was accessed, containing information such as email addresses, crypto payment addresses, and metadata including IP addresses. About 1,000 records contained encrypted names for specific products; the company is treating this data as potentially compromised and has notified affected customers directly by email.
At present, Bitrefill does not believe customers need to take any additional action, though it advises caution regarding unexpected communications related to Bitrefill or cryptocurrency.
Steps to strengthen security
In response to the breach, Bitrefill said it has already strengthened its cybersecurity practices and is working to draw lessons from the incident.
The company outlined several measures, including conducting comprehensive penetration tests with external experts, tightening internal access controls, enhancing logging and monitoring for faster threat detection, and refining incident response procedures and automated shutdown protocols.
Looking forward
Bitrefill acknowledged that this was its first major attack in more than a decade of operation but stressed that it remains well-funded and profitable, capable of absorbing operational losses. Most systems, including payments, stock, and accounts, are back online, with sales volumes returning to normal.
“Getting hit by a sophisticated attack sucks (a lot),” the company said. “But we survived. We will continue to do our best to continue deserving our customers’ trust.”
Crypto World
Lazarus Group suspected in Bitrefill hack that compromised hot wallets
The notorious Lazarus Group may have been behind a cyberattack on crypto e-commerce store Bitrefill, the firm estimates.
Summary
- Bitrefill linked a March 1 cyberattack to tactics associated with the Lazarus and BlueNoroff groups, after attackers compromised an employee laptop and drained funds from hot wallets.
- Around 18,500 purchase records were accessed, though the company said only limited customer information was exposed and there was no evidence of a full database breach.
Detailing the March 1 incident in a Tuesday X post, the firm said the attackers used malware, on-chain tracing, and reused IP and email infrastructure to drain funds from its hot wallets after compromising an employee’s laptop. Attackers also allegedly accessed around 18,500 purchase records, although this involved only “limited customer information.”
“We find many similarities between this attack and past cyberattacks by the DPRK Lazarus / Bluenoroff group against other companies in the crypto industries,” the firm wrote.
Bitrefill is a crypto e-commerce platform that allows customers to spend digital assets on real-world products and gift cards. It added that the attackers were primarily financially motivated, as there was “no evidence that they extracted our entire database.”
“The attackers ran a limited number of queries consistent with probing to understand what there was to steal, including cryptocurrency and Bitrefill gift card inventory,” it added.
Bitrefill did not disclose how much crypto was stolen but said it would absorb the losses from its operational capital.
“We have already significantly improved our cybersecurity practices, but vow to continue to draw learnings from this experience to make sure user and company balances and data remain maximally safe,” Bitrefill said, adding that all operations were back to normal.
The company has since strengthened its security posture and has contacted law enforcement while working with security firms to investigate and respond to the incident.
Lazarus group remains a major threat
Over the years, the Lazarus Group has been credited with some of the crypto industry’s largest hacks.
One of the biggest attacks involved crypto exchange Bybit, which lost around $1.4 billion last year. The group was also a suspected actor behind the hack of South Korean crypto exchange Upbit and UK-registered trading platform Lykke.
Crypto World
XRP hits $1.60 after stunning comeback: ‘rare bottom’ signal triggers buzz
- XRP shows rare bottom signals and strong rebound potential.
- The key support at $1.44–$1.48 will guide near-term price action.
- A break above $1.60 with volume needed to sustain the rally.
XRP has grabbed the spotlight after overtaking BNB in market cap ranking following its recent price rebound.
Analysts point to technical signals that suggest XRP may have recently formed a long-term bottom.
These signals include an oversold RSI on the weekly chart and a stretch of negative funding rates that historically appear before significant rebounds.
XRP rebounded after hitting a rare bottom
After a period of sideways trading, XRP surged to a weekly high near $1.60.
This move followed a modest beta-driven pullback alongside Bitcoin, reflecting that broader market trends still influence XRP.
Despite the rally, the cryptocurrency faced technical resistance, with momentum indicators suggesting it had been overbought.
Trading volumes have cooled after the rally, which is typical when an asset approaches a key resistance area.
The current support zone around $1.44–$1.48 has become crucial.
Holding above this area could allow XRP to test $1.60 again and potentially reach new resistance levels beyond that.
Conversely, a breach below this support may see a decline toward $1.34, highlighting the importance of technical positioning.
What is fueling XRP’s rally?
XRP’s recent gains were fueled by multiple factors. First, its short-term correlation with Bitcoin helped it catch a wave as the broader market dipped slightly.
Second, technical patterns are now aligning in a way that traders rarely see, suggesting the bottom may hold.
Third, market inflows from institutional investors remain a key driver, especially in the form of spot XRP ETF activity.
Outflows from these ETFs in recent weeks have restrained buying pressure, but a reversal could reignite momentum.
But despite these positives, risks remain.
Volume remains lower than during the peak of the rally, signaling that conviction is not yet at its highest. Moreover, the current resistance at $1.60 is a significant hurdle.
A breakout above it, supported by rising trading activity, would confirm that the uptrend can continue.
However, caution is warranted, as the cryptocurrency is still navigating critical resistance and depends on continued support from market flows.
Traders should closely watch to see if XRP can hold its gains and build on this rare bottom.
If the support around $1.44-$1.48 remains firm and institutional demand resumes, the path toward higher levels may be within reach.
At the same time, failing to hold this support could quickly undo the recent gains.
For now, XRP sits at a critical juncture, with potential for both continuation and retracement depending on the next wave of market activity.
Crypto World
Bitcoin price outlook: Citigroup predicts $112K despite regulatory roadblocks
- Citigroup forecasts Bitcoin at $112,000 despite slow US crypto legislation.
- Bitcoin price ranges show cautious momentum with potential volatility ahead.
- Institutional demand remains key amid regulatory uncertainty.
Bitcoin has been steadily climbing over the past week, with its price now sitting around $74,000.
This marks a 6.5% increase over the last seven days, showing renewed momentum after several months of sideways movement.
Citigroup, in its latest update, adjusted its 12-month price forecast for Bitcoin to $112,000, from its previous target of around $143,000.
Citi’s move reflects a cautious optimism shaped by both market dynamics and regulatory developments.
Regulatory headwinds weigh heavily
One of the main reasons for Citigroup’s revised forecast is the slow progress on US cryptocurrency legislation. Lawmakers have yet to finalize clear rules on key issues like stablecoins and decentralized finance.
This lack of clarity is affecting institutional adoption.
Investment firms and hedge funds are hesitant to increase exposure without clear regulatory guidance. The window for passing meaningful crypto laws in the Senate is narrowing.
Internal political divisions are slowing the process further.
Without these legislative catalysts, the market may continue to trade in ranges despite overall optimism.
Citigroup notes that this legislative uncertainty could act as a ceiling for Bitcoin in the near term. Even with strong demand from retail and institutional investors, clear rules are needed to support sustained growth.
What traders should watch out for
Ethereum, Bitcoin’s closest competitor, is also experiencing slower growth due to similar challenges.
Citigroup lowered Ethereum’s 12-month target to $3,175, down from over $4,000. Both cryptocurrencies are influenced by network activity and investor demand, which have shown signs of weakening.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a 24-hour range of $73,500 to $74,800, showing relatively stable momentum.
Over the past week, it has moved between $69,000 and $75,600, indicating that volatility is still present.
Citigroup outlines several potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s trajectory. In a bear case, a broader economic downturn or continued regulatory delays could push the price toward $58,000.
On the other hand, strong investor interest and institutional flows could drive it up to $165,000.
These scenarios suggest a wide range of outcomes, highlighting the risks and opportunities for traders.
Even in the base case, Bitcoin is expected to trade around $112,000 within 12 months if adoption trends continue and market confidence improves.
This makes it an attractive, though still volatile, asset for those looking to participate in the cryptocurrency market.
The road ahead is clearly influenced by policy decisions, investor sentiment, and market activity, and traders will need to watch for both regulatory developments and demand signals to navigate this landscape successfully.
Crypto World
Major Governance Platform Tally Announces Shutdown Amid Regulatory Shifts
Tally announced its shutdown amid the shifting regulatory climate regarding cryptocurrencies in the US.
The regulatory climate in the US is shifting, and although many consider it for the better, the changes are already taking effect.
Tally, a governance tooling platform that’s used by more than 500 decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), including Uniswap, Ethereum Name Service (ENS), and Arbitrum, announced that it will be shutting down after more than five years of operations.
In a video posted on X, the CEO of Tally, Dennison Bertram, outlined some reasons for the decision to wind down operations.
https://t.co/WD6Z4uVTeR pic.twitter.com/JJt3XIIJbl
— Tally (@tallyxyz) March 17, 2026
The move comes just as the SEC and the CFTC issued joint guidance clarifying that most cryptocurrencies are not securities, a major de-risking event for the entire industry.
While the previous administration pushed many projects toward a decentralized structure in the form of a DAO to reduce legal risk, the current, more relaxed environment has reduced demand for DAO governance, as Wu Blockchain noted in its commentary on the news.
Tally will not be conducting an ICO. Bertram said that continuation plans are already in the works with all of the firm’s enterprise clients, while the interface will remain operational for them as needed.
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Crypto World
More Australians Pay With Crypto But Bank Restrictions Grow
More Australians reported using cryptocurrency to pay for goods and services in 2026 compared to the year before, but banking friction has continued to weigh on crypto users, according to a newly published report by crypto exchange Independent Reserve.
The annual survey of 2,000 “everyday Australians” was conducted between Jan. 12 and Jan. 30.
It found that the share of Australians using crypto to buy goods or pay for services doubled from 6% to 12%, with the report suggesting “more Aussies are viewing crypto as a practical payment method rather than just a speculative bet.”
Among the respondents who used crypto for goods and services, 21% reported using crypto for online shopping, making it the leading real-world use case.
Another 16% said they used crypto to pay for services such as freelancing and video game purchases.
Despite growing adoption, barriers remain, with some citing a lack of education and training, and the technology being too complex to use.

Banking issues on the rise
Beyond complexity, banking blocks were highlighted as a significant obstacle. A Binance survey last year found that users faced banking barriers when engaging with exchanges and crypto businesses — a problem the Independent Reserve’s survey respondents also flagged.
Around 30% of investors said they have experienced delays or rejections when trying to buy cryptocurrency or transfer funds to a crypto exchange at least once, compared with 19.3% in 2025.
Banking restrictions on crypto transactions in Australia tightened around 2023, when major banks, including Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank, introduced measures such as payment delays, caps on transfers to crypto exchanges and additional identity checks.
Younger investors reported more trouble with transaction delays than their older counterparts, and those making smaller transactions reported greater interference.

“For many Australians, the lack of regulation hits home when a payment to a crypto exchange is delayed or blocked, an issue that has continued to rise for another year,” the report authors said.
“These interruptions affect both consumers and businesses, showing how cautious banks are with crypto when the rules aren’t clear.”
Clear licensing and regulation are the solution
The report said the findings suggest that banks have not relaxed their posture toward crypto and may be refining their approach by focusing on user behavior and transaction patterns instead of transaction size, underscoring the growing need for regulatory clarity.
Related: Crypto lobby slams Australian broadcaster’s ‘sensational’ Bitcoin article
“Clear licensing and regulation can help fix this. By setting high standards for crypto operators, banks would have more confidence that transactions are legitimate,” they added.
“For Australia’s blockchain industry, which has faced banking hurdles for over a decade, effective regulation could finally bridge the gap between exchanges and banks, giving investors and businesses more certainty and reliability.”
Crypto executives told Cointelegraph last month that Australia’s crypto market is making progress in user growth and regulatory reforms, but there are still a range of issues to iron out.
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Crypto World
SEC and CFTC say most crypto assets are not securities in new joint interpretation
The US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have issued a joint interpretation outlining how crypto assets are treated under federal securities laws. Most notably, the statement emphasised that most crypto assets are not themselves securities.
Summary
- SEC and CFTC issue joint interpretation stating most crypto assets are not securities and outlining how they fall under federal law
- The guidance introduces a token classification framework and clarifies treatment of airdrops, staking, and other on-chain activities.
Both agencies released the interpretation as one of their first coordinated steps since signing a memorandum of understanding, with the update detailed in a Tuesday notice. According to the SEC, the interpretation would serve as an “important bridge” as the US Congress continues to work toward market structure legislation for digital assets.
The interpretation, according to the regulators, will provide a “coherent token taxonomy for digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins, and digital securities,” and clarify how a “non-security crypto asset” may or may not fall under the definition of an investment contract.
The interpretation also clarifies how federal securities laws apply to activities such as “airdrops, protocol mining, protocol staking, and the wrapping of a non-security crypto asset.”
“It also acknowledges what the former administration refused to recognize – that most crypto assets are not themselves securities,” SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said in an accompanying statement.
“After more than a decade of uncertainty, this interpretation will provide market participants with a clear understanding of how the Commission treats crypto assets under federal securities laws,” he added.
Separately, Atkins has said that “only one crypto asset class remains subject to the securities laws,” identifying it as “traditional securities that are tokenized.”
Until now, there has been a significant degree of regulatory ambiguity and a fragmented approach to digital asset oversight.
Which has fueled persistent market confusion and led to a series of high profile enforcement actions initiated against various industry participants and major exchanges.
Over the long run, this unified interpretation is expected to foster greater institutional adoption and provide the legal certainty necessary for sustainable innovation within the American financial ecosystem.
Crypto World
Tim Scott Expects Proposal for Stalled Crypto Bill This Week
US Senator Tim Scott says he is expecting a possible compromise this week on a stablecoin yield payments provision that has stalled a crypto market structure bill in the Senate.
“I believe that this week we will have the first proposal in my hands to take a look at,” Scott, the chair of the Senate Banking Committee that is working to advance the bill, said on Tuesday at a crypto lobby event in Washington, D.C.
“If that actually happens before the end of this week, and I think that it will […] I think we’re going to be in much better shape,” he added.
The Senate has been looking to advance its version of a crypto market structure bill that outlines how regulators will approach crypto after the House passed similar legislation in July, called the CLARITY Act.

The Senate’s bill has stalled amid negotiations between banking and crypto lobbyists over a provision in the legislation that would ban third parties from offering stablecoin yield payments.
Banking groups assert that stablecoin yields paid by platforms such as crypto exchanges are a loophole in the GENIUS Act, which banned yield payments from stablecoin issuers, and could threaten the stability of the banking system through deposit flight.
As stablecoin yield payments are a popular way for exchanges to entice customers, crypto lobbyists have fought the claims and accused the banks of anti-competitive behavior.
Other issues in bill also making progress
Scott said the issue of stablecoin yield was only the “largest publicly celebrated challenge” of the bill, but other issues under negotiation included provisions around ethics, decentralized finance, and “who is carved in and who is carved out” of the rules.
“Those issues seem to pale in comparison to the rewards issue, but they’re still very important outstanding issues that we are nibbling away at as we work on the more popular issue of rewards and yield,” he added.
Related: CLARITY Act risks handing crypto to centralized players: Gnosis exec
“We have made a lot of progress over the last probably 30 days or so,” Scott said. “We’re working on a lot of issues, but every single day it feels like the big momentum is finally on our side and we’re heading in the right direction.”
Procedural rules mean two committees are overseeing crypto market structure legislation in the Senate, as the bill concerns the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Senate Banking, which oversees the SEC, indefinitely postponed a markup of the crypto bill in January, while the Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the CFTC, sent its markup of the bill to the Senate floor that same month.
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Crypto World
Bitcoin Exchange Inflows Surge as BTC Hits $75K Resistance
On March 16, hourly inflows into centralized crypto venues spiked to 6,100 units, the highest level in over a month as a broad market rally took hold. Data compiled for the period show that larger transfers dominated the flow, comprising 63% of total inflows—the strongest share dating back to mid-October 2025. The surge in exchange deposits comes as the leading digital asset has advanced roughly 12% for the month, with intraday prints approaching six-week highs near 76,000 in mid-March. Traders frequently move funds to exchanges in anticipation of selling or swapping into stablecoins, a pattern that market participants watch closely for signs of distribution when price momentum wavers.
CryptoQuant’s analysis highlighted that the spike included a notable rise in the share of large inflows, a behavior historically linked to selling pressure. These on-chain dynamics add a layer of nuance to the ongoing rally, suggesting that even as prices push higher, there could be a growing readiness among market participants to monetize gains. The data, reported by Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant, underscore the choppy balance between demand and potential supply as the market navigates macro uncertainty and cross-asset risk sentiment. CryptoQuant
Beyond the on-chain signal, the price landscape remains a focal point for traders. Bitcoin’s price action has driven the market to a roughly 12% gain for March, with the asset trading near multi-month resistance levels. In recent days, the market has flirted with a six-week high around $76,000, a level that has proven challenging to break on several attempts. Market observers point to the Realized Price, a measure of the average price at which active supply transacted, as a proxy for potential resistance. The Realized Price currently sits in the neighborhood of $84,700, with the lower band—where many traders previously found concrete resistance during bear phases—acting as a rough guide for possible price ceilings in the near term. This dynamic was evident as the price repeatedly tested the $75,000 area on Coinbase, finding resistance at each try in a short span of time. TradingView data corroborate the near-term challenge around that psychological threshold.
Amid the price action, traders are keenly watching the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. The forthcoming Fed meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, sits at the center of market expectations, with many participants pricing in no interest-rate changes for March. CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed a high probability—about 98.9%—that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged, with only a 1.1% chance of a hike. The market’s attunement to the Fed reflects a broader risk-off risk-on mood that often drives crypto liquidity and ETF flow dynamics in tandem with macro cues. As coverage in traditional outlets highlights, a hawkish or cautious stance from the central bank could alter risk appetite across assets, including cryptocurrencies. CME FedWatch data and related market commentary underscore the tightrope between growth worries and inflation concerns that has defined the current regime.
In context, the rally’s momentum appears fragile, and the on-chain signals—while pointing to ongoing demand—also warn of potential distribution if large holders decide to realize gains as headline risk shifts. The price vicinity around $75,000 remains a key focal point; if the asset can push above this zone, it could test the next band near the realized price level, although history shows the lower RP band can act as a stubborn resistance in bear-market cycles. Traders are therefore weighing whether the current flow pattern represents a temporary flush of liquidity to exchanges or the onset of a broader reallocation into longer-term holdings or other assets, including stablecoins.
Why it matters
For investors, the observed spike in exchange inflows—especially with a rising share of large transfers—serves as a reminder that on-chain activity does not always align with short-term price strength. If sellers emerge from notable exchange deposits, price weaknesses could follow, even in a currently constructive market backdrop. The Fed’s rate stance, coupled with macro headlines, can influence liquidity and risk sentiment, which in turn shapes how and where capital flows. For market builders and liquidity providers, monitoring the balance between on-chain realized prices and exchange inflows could offer early clues about shifts in supply-demand dynamics and potential volatility around key technical levels.
From a macro perspective, the interplay between monetary policy expectations and crypto price action remains a critical driver of flows and risk tolerance. The Fed’s decision on Wednesday—alongside ongoing inflation readings and geopolitical developments—will likely set the tone for near-term momentum. Traders keeping a close eye on the on-chain data and the official communications should be prepared for rapid shifts in sentiment, especially if the Fed signaling strengthens or weakens the case for rate cuts later in the year.
What to watch next
- Federal Reserve decision and accompanying statement (Wednesday): assess any changes to forward guidance and inflation outlook.
- Next batch of on-chain data from CryptoQuant: watch for shifts in the share of large inflows versus overall inflows and any corroborating metrics on exchange net flows.
- Price action around the $75,000 level and the realized price vicinity near $84,700: look for breakout or rejection patterns and volume confirmation.
- Market reaction to Fed commentary: observe risk appetite shifts that could impact liquidity, ETF flows, and spot market participation.
Sources & verification
- CryptoQuant insights on exchange inflows and the share of large inflows for March 16–17, including the 63% figure.
- CME FedWatch tool data on the probability of rate hold versus hike.
- Associated Press reporting on Fed policy expectations and inflation considerations in the current environment.
- Cointelegraph market coverage discussing Bitcoin’s price around $70k and near-term resistance levels.
- TradingView BTCUSD data for price action on Coinbase as a reference for breakout and resistance testing.
Bitcoin exchange flows rise ahead of Fed decision; on-chain signals warn of selling pressure
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) exchange flows surged ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with on-chain data indicating a potential tilt toward distribution despite a broader rally. On March 16, centralized exchanges recorded inflows totaling 6,100 coins—the highest since February 20—according to CryptoQuant. A closer breakdown shows large transfers dominating the flow, making up about 63% of total inflows, the strongest proportion observed since October 2025. These signals emerge as the asset has climbed roughly 12% in March, drawing near $76,000 in intraday trading on March 17. The behavior of inflows and on-chain metrics has historically foreshadowed price dynamics, and traders are weighing whether the current momentum can be sustained or whether a wave of selling could emerge as participants seek risk-adjusted gains. CryptoQuant notes the potential for selling pressure when large deposits to exchanges spike, a pattern that has played out in past cycles.
The price backdrop remains a mix of resilience and caution. After a month characterized by a steady ascent, the asset touched six-week highs near $76,000, underscoring renewed risk appetite among investors. Yet the on-chain Realized Price, which represents the average break-even price for active holders, sits well higher at approximately $84,700. This creates a ceiling effect, as the current price remains below the lower band of the realized-price metric, a zone historically associated with resistance during bear-market phases. Market data from TradingView show the asset testing the $75,000 mark on Coinbase multiple times in the past 24 hours, underscoring the psychological and technical significance of that level.
The broader market is anchored by expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy stance. CME FedWatch data indicated a near-ceremonial stance for the March meeting, with markets pricing in a substantial probability of no rate change. The implications of the Fed’s decision—or even its language around rate paths—could influence liquidity cycles across crypto markets, where ETF interest, spot demand, and derivative positioning interact with macro risk sentiment. Associated Press reporting on the Fed’s trajectory highlights ongoing inflation concerns and the possibility that the central bank could refrain from rate cuts in the near term, a scenario that could shape risk-on versus risk-off temperament in the weeks ahead. CME FedWatch Associated Press
Looking forward, the market will likely calibrate its expectations around the Fed’s guidance and the pace of any potential policy normalization. Should the Fed acknowledge persistent inflation risks while signaling a cautious path, traders could see continued volatility as liquidity shifts between risk assets. Conversely, a more accommodating read could sustain the current momentum, allowing the rally to extend and on-chain inflows to reflect renewed demand rather than distribution. The next few sessions will be telling, as investors parse macro cues against the backdrop of on-chain indicators that have in the past proven prescient about fundamental shifts in supply and demand.
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