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JPMorgan Weighs Prediction Markets as Sector Expands

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Jamie Dimon said JPMorgan may enter the prediction markets sector in the future.
  • He ruled out offering contracts tied to sports or political events.
  • Goldman Sachs confirmed it is actively reviewing prediction market opportunities.
  • Polymarket and Kalshi remain leading platforms as competition expands.
  • Coinbase and Robinhood have added prediction trading to their services.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank may enter prediction markets as large institutions assess the fast-growing sector. He shared the update during a CBS interview on Tuesday. His remarks place JPMorgan alongside Goldman Sachs in reviewing potential offerings.

JPMorgan Reviews Prediction Markets Strategy

Dimon confirmed JPMorgan is studying the space but set clear limits. “It’s possible one day we’ll do something like that,” Dimon said. However, he ruled out markets tied to sports or politics.

He stressed that the bank would follow strict internal standards. “There’s a bunch of stuff we won’t do,” Dimon said. He added, “We have strict rules around insider information.”

Goldman Sachs has also advanced its review of prediction markets. CEO David Solomon addressed the topic during the bank’s January earnings call. He said the firm has engaged directly with industry leaders.

“I personally met with the two big prediction companies,” Solomon said. He said he spent hours learning about their models and leadership. He added that a team continues to evaluate the sector.

Neither bank has disclosed launch timelines. They have also not detailed technology choices or regulatory structures. However, their statements confirm active internal discussions.

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Polymarket, Kalshi, and Rising Crypto Platforms

Prediction markets were once centered on two main platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi dominated the sector for years. Now, competition has expanded quickly across crypto and traditional firms.

Coinbase and Robinhood have integrated prediction market trading. These companies offer retail access through existing platforms. Their entry has increased user participation and market volume.

Polymarket operates on blockchain infrastructure using Polygon. Users deposit stablecoins and place outcome-based trades. Smart contracts record transactions and settle payouts automatically.

Kalshi uses a regulated exchange model without blockchain systems. It offers event contracts under centralized order matching. The platform handles settlement through traditional mechanisms.

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Polymarket has secured partnerships and investment backing. It maintains ties with Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange. The company holds an estimated $20 billion valuation.

Kalshi recently closed a funding round led by Coatue Management. The round valued the platform at about $22 billion. These figures reflect growing capital flows into prediction markets.

Regulation in the United States continues to evolve. Authorities assess how event contracts should be classified. Banks have indicated they will monitor policy developments closely.

Earlier this month, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission advanced oversight efforts. The agency outlined steps to build a regulatory framework. These actions mark the latest formal move shaping prediction markets in the U.S.

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Crypto World

Galaxy Digital’s (GLXY) testnet suffers hack but no client funds or information were compromised

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Galaxy Digital's (GLXY) testnet suffers hack but no client funds or information were compromised

Galaxy Digital (GLXY), the digital asset financial services firm founded by Mike Novogratz, said it recently contained a cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized access to an isolated development workspace, according to a statement from a company spokesperson.

“An immaterial amount of company funds used for testing within the isolated development workspace was impacted,” the spokesperson said in emailed comments. The loss was less than $10,000, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The firm emphasized that the affected environment was used solely for research and development and was not connected to its core infrastructure, production systems, trading platforms or client accounts.

Galaxy said it detected the intrusion and moved quickly to contain it, secure the compromised workspace and implement additional precautionary measures across its on-chain infrastructure.

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“No client funds or client account information were accessed or at risk at any point based on our review to date,” Galaxy said, adding that all platforms and services remain fully operational and secure for clients.

Hacks and exploits remain a persistent risk in the crypto industry, where the combination of open-source code, large pools of onchain liquidity and uneven security practices creates an attractive target for attackers.

Billions of dollars are lost to smart contract exploits, phishing schemes and infrastructure breaches, with industry estimates often exceeding $1–2 billion annually in recent years.

Even when incidents are contained, and client assets are not impacted, breaches can erode trust, trigger heightened regulatory scrutiny and underscore the operational risks facing firms operating in largely irreversible, always-on financial systems.

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Galaxy is a diversified financial services and investment firm focused on the digital asset and blockchain sector, providing institutional clients with trading, asset management, lending, advisory and custody services.

The firm operates across several core business lines, including global markets, asset management and digital infrastructure, while also running businesses in areas like crypto mining, staking and data center operations.

Positioned as a bridge between traditional finance and crypto, Galaxy offers institutional-grade access to digital assets and related technologies, alongside investments in blockchain ventures and emerging areas such as AI-powered infrastructure.

The company said it is continuing to review the incident and will provide updates as appropriate.

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Read more: Bitcoin’s quantum threat is real, but far from an existential crisis, Galaxy says

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What Does it Mean for Bitcoin?

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What Does it Mean for Bitcoin?

Warren Buffett, the legendary investor and chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, revealed on CNBC this week that his firm purchased approximately $17 billion in US Treasury bills at the latest auction. Is a stock market crash coming and what does it mean for Bitcoin (BTC)?

Key takeaways:

  • Berkshire held $373 billion in cash or cash equivalents as of 2025’s close, more than double the levels in 2023.

  • The firm’s rising cash reserves typically precede major stock market crashes, a bad sign for Bitcoin.

Buffett still sees better value in cash than in stocks

Buffett’s message is straightforward: Berkshire does not see the recent equity pullback as a sufficiently attractive buying opportunity.

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For context, the S&P 500 has fallen about 5.75% since reaching a record high in January.

S&P 500 weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView

Buffett said stocks are not “substantially” cheaper after the decline and described the sell-off as “nothing” compared with earlier downturns in which markets fell more than 50%.

That helps explain Berkshire’s latest Treasury-bill purchase. The company ended 2025 with about $373 billion in cash and equivalents, up from a record $334.2 billion a year earlier and more than double its level at the end of 2023.

Buffett, who famously called Bitcoin “rat poison,” typically gets into cash before major stock crashes, historical data shows.

In 1998, for instance, Buffett began trimming Berkshire’s stock exposure and raising cash, pushing the company’s cash and cash-equivalents holdings to $13.1 billion, or about 23% of total assets.

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Berkshire’s cash and cash-equivalents holdings chart. Source: GuruFocus.COM

By mid-2000, that figure had climbed to nearly $15 billion, or roughly 25% of assets, before Berkshire started deploying capital into bargains as the Dot-com bubble burst.

Bitcoin’s positive correlation with stocks may hurt prices

Bitcoin has traded more like a stock than a traditional safe haven for much of the post-2020 period, often moving in the same direction as US equities, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

As of Wednesday, the 20-week rolling correlation coefficient between the two markets was positive at 0.47.

Nasdaq Composite and BTC/USD’s 20-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingView

If Buffett’s risk-off strategy is correct, then Bitcoin should see another crash alongside stocks. Fresh quantum-security concerns, war-driven inflation risks, and nearly 50% US recession odds are putting pressure on the BTC price.

Berkshire’s portfolio decisions have also leaned away from crypto-adjacent finance.

In the first quarter of 2025, the firm fully exited Nu Holdings, a crypto-friendly fintech company, after building its position in 2021 and 2022. It secured about $250 million in profits from these investments.

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Multiple analysts predict BTC’s price to drop to as low as $30,000 in 2026.