Crypto World
Kevin Warsh’s real Fed ‘regime change’ may happen deep inside Wall Street’s plumbing
Kevin Warsh, then U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve, delivers an opening statement during his Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs confirmation hearing in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on April 21, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images
Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh‘s talk about “regime change” at the central bank has generated speculation about everything from interest rates to major personnel changes to fundamental alterations in the way it operates and communicates.
But what that eventually might look like is subtler though perhaps more consequential – a rethink of how the Fed manages the financial plumbing in the U.S. economy and the mammoth balance sheet it has built through some 18 years of crisis fighting.
Interviews with former Fed officials and economists, along with a growing library of research, suggest Warsh could guide the Fed to a smaller role in day-to-day financial markets, while also setting clearer rules for how and when it should intervene.
Simply stated, the debate centers on whether the Fed should continue using its balance sheet as a regular tool for influencing financial conditions and supporting markets — as it has through much of the post-financial crisis era — or reserve it for periods of market dysfunction and more pernicious economic stress.
Rewriting the Fed playbook
The debate over the $6.8 trillion balance sheet is technical in nature and tucked away from the more common discussions about Fed policy. But the stakes are substantial.
Since the financial crisis that exploded in 2008, the Fed has aggressively used its holdings of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities to stabilize markets and influence broader financial conditions.
Prior to the crisis, the Fed had a minuscule balance sheet relatively speaking – about $800 billion – but expanded it at one point to about $9 trillion. The Fed’s asset holdings now equate to about 23% of the U.S. economy, or some seven times where they were pre-financial crisis.
Any effort to change the system could have wide ramifications, potentially impacting Treasury yields, mortgage rates and other interest-sensitive areas of the economy, while influencing the way policymakers respond to future crises.
“It’s a debate we’re going to be seeing later this year. But one thing that’s encouraging about all of this is that nobody, including Kevin Warsh, is arguing that any of this could be done rapidly,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP and a longtime Fed watcher.
“It’s got to be done carefully, and some of the changes … would probably take time to implement,” he added. “Everyone’s looking at this as a medium-term project rather than part of the day-one agenda.”
Warsh called the balance sheet, in a Wall Steet Journal op-ed piece last year, “bloated” and said it could be reduced while at the same time allowing the Fed to lower interest rates.
What ‘regime change’ might entail
While Warsh has spoken in broad strokes about shrinking the Fed’s footprint, Wall Street already is gaming out what a new operating framework could look like.
Among the more provocative ideas comes from TS Lombard’s chief U.S. economist, Steve Blitz, who argues that a Warsh Fed could place greater weight on the overnight repo market — the short-term funding system that underpins the Treasury’s market function — rather than relying solely on the federal funds rate — which banks charge each other for overnight lending — as the key transmission mechanism for policy.
“The repo rate becomes the policy rate,” Blitz said in a client note.
In practice, that could create an unusual dynamic: Warsh might be able to satisfy Trump’s push for lower interest rates while still maintaining tighter underlying financing conditions as policymakers grapple with persistent inflation pressures.
However, he’s likely to run into quick opposition from his fellow policymakers, some of whom are skeptical of both the Fed’s ability to significantly reduce its holdings and the benefits this might provide.
“I think shrinking the balance sheet is the wrong objective, and many of the proposals to meet this objective would undermine bank resilience, impede money market functioning, and, ultimately, threaten financial stability,” Fed Governor Michael Barr said in a speech last week. “Some would actually increase the Fed’s footprint in financial markets.”
Barr’s thesis essentially is that looking merely at the size of the balance sheet is too narrow – that other issues, such as how it is comprised with respect to duration and composition also matter. Neglecting those issues, he asserts, could have “perverse” consequences such as increased volatility and even the possibility of more interventions from the Fed. At the same time, he said, lowering reserve requirements for banks could destabilize the system.
Understanding how it works
The balance sheet mechanics regarding reserves are straightforward.
When building the balance sheet, the Fed credits itself with digital cash and uses it to buy assets from banks, creating reserves. That provides the banks liquidity that then theoretically flows through the financial system. Conversely, when the Fed is reducing the balance sheet, it is no longer buying assets while also allowing the proceeds of the bonds it has purchased to roll off, rather than reinvesting them.
On the other side of the operation, the Fed is using its trading desk to achieve the interest rate it targets. The central bank also has a slew of other tools, such as the interest it pays on reserves, its discount window rate and, critically, overnight reverse repurchase operations that keep the financial flows moving.
The Fed has been operating under a system of “ample” reserves, a nebulous term that essentially means more than typical but not excessive — that would be “abundant.” Warsh has implied that the Fed can go back to its precrisis policy of “scarce” reserves, with the option to add when needed.
“Reasonable people can disagree on this,” said Bill English, the Fed’s former head of monetary affairs and now a professor at Yale. “The Fed could certainly go back to a system with scarce reserves, it would work perfectly well. Might be a little complicated to get there. You’d want to do it slowly, but I think they could do it.”
After spending much of the past 18 years depending on the Fed’s balance sheet to keep operations running smoothly — and, critics would argue, support the bull run in stocks — markets will be watching closely.
“I would very much expect the Fed to have an open discussion about establishing a framework for future operations, so the market doesn’t just assume that they’ll do unlimited amounts,” Wrightson economist Crandall said. Doing so “would allow the market to form more sensible expectations about what would happen.”
As things stand, the Fed has never communicated clear rules about when and how the balance sheet will be used.
Markets have adopted terms for the balance sheet operations – quantitative easing, or QE, for expansion and quantitative tightening, or QT, for reduction – but the Fed has never set out clear guidance about when either will be used. That’s particularly true when distinguishing between addressing financial market functioning and supporting its dual inflation and employment goals.
“They’ve never really set up a framework for when to use quantitative easing,” said former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. “The Fed hasn’t done a very good job, I think, over time of distinguishing and explaining when it’s using asset purchases for a monetary policy reason.”
Changing the message
This is where Warsh especially can come in.
Setting the tone for policy guidance is right within the chair’s wheelhouse, and Warsh could try to diminish market expectations that the Fed is going to crank up asset purchases when Wall Street starts to get the jitters.
In addition, he has spoken in favor of efforts that Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s vice chair for bank supervision, has undertaken to ease some banking regulations. Part of that would alter what kinds of assets banks could claim as reserves and use in times of crisis, an effort that Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan cited in a recent speech, saying she looks forward “to seeing how that work progresses.”
Logan has firsthand experience with the dynamics that go into balance sheet management. Prior to her current position, she ran the trading desk at the New York Fed, which is charged with executing the central bank’s open market strategy.
Logan also noted, in the speech delivered April 2, that the Fed has other tools at its disposal to help the flow of liquidity — essentially using components from both the Warsh and Barr sides of the argument.
Like others, she spoke in favor of moving slowly to address the issue.
“I’d emphasize that any changes in the balance sheet should be gradual and planned carefully,” Logan said.
The work has begun
Internally, Fed officials are girding for debate.
Central bank researchers have released several papers on the issue, including one titled “A User’s Guide to Reducing the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet.”
The paper concluded, without an endorsement in either direction, that up to $2.1 trillion in reductions could be achieved through the current policy framework, with further cuts possible should the Fed change direction into a scarce reserves approach to banking. The paper also contends it would take “at least a year and quite possibly several” before the process could even begin.
All of these proposals are likely to be on the table after Warsh takes over Friday.
He inherits a Fed facing not only economic challenges but also high political expectations from a president who regularly attacked outgoing Chair Jerome Powell, nicknaming him “Too Late” as he repeatedly threatened to fire him for not carrying out Trump’s desire for lower rates.
For all the discussion about “regime change,” former officials caution against expecting a dramatic overnight overhaul, with Warsh’s lofty goals about to meet central bank reality.
Warsh will inherit a Federal Open Market Committee built on consensus, where even major policy shifts typically move deliberately and only after lengthy internal debate. Political considerations, these officials say, are left outside the central bank’s walls.
“I was going to FOMC meetings when [Alan] Greenspan was chair, so that’s a long time. Politics never enters that room,” said Mester, the former Cleveland Fed president. “Political considerations never enter the discussion.”
Key points:
- Bitcoin has dipped below $77,000, signaling that the bears are poised to seize control.
- Altcoins are a mixed bag, with some attempting to push through the overhead resistance while others struggle to hold on to the support.
Bitcoin (BTC) has dipped below $77,000, indicating that the bears are attempting to seize control. Glassnode said the true market mean at $78,300 has historically acted as a dividing line between bear and bull market regimes. If the price breaks sharply below the level, it suggests that the recent rally may have been a “local top within the ongoing bear market.”
Institutional investors seem to be selling, as evidenced by the sharp decline in the Coinbase premium over the past few days. LVRG research director Nick Ruck told Cointelegraph that the decline of the Coinbase premium signals selling from large holders, which “could weigh on near-term price momentum across major crypto assets.”
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
What is the crucial level that suggests the bulls are back in command? Independent analyst Filbfilb said in a post on X that the previous two bear markets had ended after “a >+20% weekly candle and a break of the weekly super trend.” If the current bear trend has to fail, BTC has to rise above the super trend level at $88,000.
Could BTC and select major altcoins hold on to their strong support levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC turned down at the 20-day exponential moving average ($78,280), suggesting the bears are attempting to take charge.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The $76,000 level is the critical support to watch on the downside, as a close below it would signal an advantage to the bears. That increases the risk of a drop to the support line, which is likely to attract buyers.
Time is running out for the bulls. They will have to push and maintain the BTC price above the 20-day EMA to gain the upper hand. If they do that, the BTC/USDT pair may begin its journey toward $82,000 and eventually reach the crucial $84,000 level.
Ether price prediction
Sellers are attempting to retain Ether (ETH) below the support line, but the bulls have kept up the pressure.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The bulls will have to drive the ETH price above the moving averages to signal a comeback. If they do that, it suggests that the break below the support line may have been a bear trap. The ETH/USDT pair may climb to $2,465 and then to the resistance line of the ascending channel pattern.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price declines from the current level or the 20-day EMA and breaks below $2,077, it would signal that the bears remain in control. That may sink the pair to the $1,916 support.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) rose above the 20-day EMA ($650) on Wednesday, and the bulls are attempting to push the price to $687.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Sellers will attempt to defend the $687 resistance, but if the bulls prevail, the BNB/USDT pair may march toward $730 and then $790. Such a move suggests that the pair may have bottomed out at $570.
The bears are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to defend the overhead resistance and pull the BNB price below the 50-day simple moving average ($631). If they succeed, the pair may extend its stay within the $570 to $687 range for a while longer.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) remains below the moving averages, indicating that the bears are in no mood to let go of their advantage.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Sellers will attempt to strengthen their position by pushing the XRP price below the $1.27 support level. If they manage to do so, the XRP/USDT pair may plummet to $1.11, where buyers are expected to step in.
The first sign of strength will be a close above the downtrend line. The pair may then ascend to $1.61, a crucial level to watch. If buyers overcome the barrier, the pair may surge toward $2.40.
Solana price prediction
Solana’s (SOL) relief rally reached the 20-day EMA ($87.83), where the bears are expected to pose a strong challenge.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
If buyers propel the SOL price above the 20-day EMA, it suggests demand at lower levels. The SOL/USDT pair may then climb to the $98 overhead resistance. A close above $98 signals the start of a new up move toward $117.
On the contrary, if the price declines sharply from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $82.65, it suggests the bears remain in control. The pair may then tumble to the $76 support.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned up from the 50-day SMA ($0.10) on Wednesday, but the relief rally is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA ($0.11).
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
If buyers pierce the 20-day EMA, the DOGE/USDT pair may rise to the $0.12 overhead resistance. Sellers are expected to defend the $0.12 level, as a close above it would signal a short-term trend change. The DOGE price may then soar to $0.14 and later to $0.16.
The 50-day SMA is the critical support to watch on the downside, as a break below it could sink the pair to the $0.09 level.
Hyperliquid price prediction
Hyperliquid (HYPE) continued its uptrend, skyrocketing to a new all-time high of $62.65 on Thursday.
HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Sellers are fiercely defending the $59.41 level, as they have not allowed the bulls to close above it. The first support on the downside is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $53.29. If the HYPE price rebounds off the $53.29 level with strength, the bulls will again attempt to resume the uptrend. A close above $62.65 opens the door to a rally toward $77.
Alternatively, a close below the $53.29 level suggests that the short-term traders are booking profits. The HYPE/USDT pair may then tumble to the 50% retracement level of $50.41 and then the 20-day EMA ($46.97). The deeper the fall, the longer the time needed for the resumption of the uptrend.
Related: XRP adds 4,300 new wallets in 24 hours, but why is price stuck?
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) has been trading just below its moving averages, suggesting the bulls have not given up.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
A break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.25) opens the doors for a recovery to $0.29 and, after that, to $0.31. Buyers will have to clear the $0.31 hurdle to signal the start of a new up move.
Instead, if the ADA price turns down from the moving averages, it suggests that the bears remain in control. There is support at $0.24, but if the level breaks down, the ADA/USDT pair may slump to the bottom of the $0.22 to $0.31 range.
Zcash price prediction
Zcash (ZEC) pole vaulted above the $643 resistance on Wednesday, but the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels.
ZEC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The relative strength index is forming a negative divergence, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening. If the ZEC price closes below the $643 level, it signals the possibility of a deeper correction toward the 20-day EMA ($547).
If the ZEC/USDT pair turns up from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it indicates that the uptrend remains intact. The bulls will then make one more attempt to clear the $690 level, clearing the path for a rally to the $750 resistance.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has risen above the breakdown level of $375, but the rebound lacks strength.
BCH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The relief rally is expected to face selling at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $393 and then at the 20-day EMA ($414). If BCH price declines from $393, the risk of a break below $348 increases. The BCH/USDT pair may then resume the downtrend and plunge to $300.
This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if buyers drive and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA.
The U.S. Congress is intensifying its scrutiny of prediction-market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, demanding internal records to understand how each platform handles insider trading. The move comes after public disclosures and media reports suggested traders might be using nonpublic information tied to government actions to place bets.
In a post on X, Rep. James Comer, chair of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, said he had sent letters to Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, requesting internal documents that detail the firms’ procedures for detecting and mitigating insider trading. Comer warned that lawmakers are concerned about elected officials leveraging “basic insider knowledge” to profit from government actions, a practice he described as unacceptable.
Comer cited reports of more than 80 suspicious trades that appeared to be timed ahead of Iran-related military operations, a finding he linked to concerns that politicians and other officials with access to nonpublic information could place favorable bets and cash out. The reference traces to a New York Times article published May 13, which detailed bets surrounding Israel’s actions in the Iran conflict, a Trump ceasefire announcement, and other event contracts tied to U.S. politics. The Times report underscored how market activity can reflect sensitive real-world developments before they unfold.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi have faced ongoing scrutiny over insider-trading risks. Polymarket said in March that it had updated its approach to potential insider trading on the platform, while Kalshi announced in April that it had banned three U.S. politicians from wagering on their own races. The developments come as investors and users weigh how these markets should be regulated and safeguarded against abuse. Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket and Kalshi for comment but did not receive an immediate response.
Key takeaways
- House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer says he has sent formal requests to Polymarket and Kalshi for internal records on handling insider trading, signaling intensified congressional oversight.
- A New York Times report cited by Comer details at least 80 suspicious trades timed around Iran-related military actions and other political events, highlighting potential insider-fueled profits.
- Polymarket and Kalshi have each introduced policy responses—Polymarket updating its approach to insider trading and Kalshi banning several U.S. politicians from certain bets—indicating industry reform under pressure.
- Separately, a U.S. Justice Department indictment connects a military figure to profits from Polymarket contracts tied to Maduro’s capture, illustrating potential national-security risks linked to these markets.
Congressional inquiry and industry response
The letters from Rep. Comer reflect a broader concern in Congress about whether prediction markets—designed to aggregate information and forecast outcomes—could be hijacked by insiders with government access. Comer’s public statements emphasize that lawmakers view insider trading as a threat to market integrity and a potential conflict of interest for public officials.
Beyond the committee’s actions, the media narrative points to concrete episodes in which insiders might have exploited timely, sensitive information. The Times report described bets around Israel’s military actions against Iran, a ceasefire announcement from the U.S. government, and other events that could plausibly be influenced by nonpublic information. While such events attract broad attention, the question remains: do current platform safeguards suffice to deter misuse, and how should regulators weigh further requirements?
Polymarket has acknowledged certain limitations and responded by updating its governance around potential insider trading. Kalshi has taken a different route by restricting participation of specific U.S. officials in bets related to their roles, action that signals a willingness to enforce stricter rules even as it navigates regulatory expectations for-compliant markets. As these platforms adjust, investors and users should monitor not only policy shifts but also how responsive the platforms are to inquiries from Congress and the public.
Linkage to broader legal cases and implications for users
Meanwhile, a parallel case involving Polymarket intersects with national security considerations. In April, the U.S. Department of Justice announced a criminal indictment against Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a servicemember involved in the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors alleged that Van Dyke used Polymarket event contracts tied to Maduro’s capture to profit by more than $400,000 by relying on classified information. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty to charges that include commodities fraud and unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain. He was released on $250,000 bail and restricted to travel among North Carolina, California, and New York while the case proceeds. The charges and the related market activity underscore how insiders in and around government actions can intersect with digital prediction markets in ways that raise both legal and ethical questions for participants, platforms, and observers alike.
These developments come as the market for event-based contracts continues to evolve, with ongoing debates about what constitutes acceptable use, how to detect manipulation, and what safeguards are necessary to protect users and the integrity of the markets. The DoJ matter, in particular, highlights a potential warning sign for participants: even intra-government or government-linked actors may see opportunities in these markets, complicating the assessment of risk and reward for ordinary users.
What to watch next
As Congress seeks more transparency, expect continued inquiries into how Kalshi and Polymarket monitor for insider trading, what internal controls exist, and what remedies are in place when anomalies are detected. Watch for any formal regulatory guidance or updated compliance requirements that emerge from both congressional action and platform responses. The interplay between national-security concerns, market integrity, and user trust will shape how these platforms evolve and how investors approach prediction-market participation in the coming months.
The evolving story — including any formal responses from Polymarket and Kalshi and the progression of the Van Dyke case — will illuminate whether the market’s promise as a tool for price discovery and information aggregation can be preserved in a landscape increasingly scrutinized by policymakers and law enforcement. For readers, the key remains: how robust are the safeguards, and who bears the burden when safeguards fail?
Strategy continued expanding its Bitcoin exposure this week through STRC perpetual preferred shares and MSTR stock activity. However, company executives also reduced personal holdings through recent stock sales filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Meanwhile, MSTR stock extended weekly losses as Bitcoin prices remained under pressure across broader crypto markets.
Strategy Executives Reduce Shareholdings
Strategy chief financial officer Andrew Kang disclosed several stock transactions through recent SEC filings this week. Kang received 12,500 MSTR shares after restricted stock units vested under company compensation agreements. He sold 5,597 shares one day later to satisfy tax withholding requirements tied to the vesting event.
The transactions carried a combined value of about $927,866 based on filing disclosures. The reported sale prices ranged between $163.98 and $166.00 per share during the trading sessions. Meanwhile, Kang still controls roughly 33,675 MSTR shares alongside several preferred stock positions connected to Strategy.
SEC filings also showed additional sales from Kang during the previous three months. The filings listed earlier disposals totaling 916 shares and another 2,373 shares before this week’s transactions. Consequently, market participants linked the continued selling activity with pressure surrounding Strategy’s recent stock performance.
Strategy director Jarrod Patten also reduced his exposure through several recent share sales. Patten sold 5,250 MSTR shares during the last few trading sessions, according to regulatory disclosures. Following the transactions, Patten retained direct ownership of 28,000 Class A common shares.
Patten continues to hold several Series A perpetual preferred stock positions tied to the company. Besides executive sales, broader market weakness added pressure on Strategy shares throughout the week. Analysts also noted concerns surrounding continued share dilution connected to Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition model.
Strategy has repeatedly used equity offerings and preferred shares to finance additional Bitcoin purchases. The company remains one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin despite prolonged volatility across crypto markets. However, continued financing activity has increased concerns surrounding dilution among market participants.
MSTR Stock Extends Weekly Decline
MSTR stock closed 0.58% lower on Thursday as weakness spread across both equity and crypto markets. The stock finished the session at $164.85 after trading between $162.40 and $168.71 intraday. Trading volume also remained below the average daily level of approximately 18 million shares.
Premarket trading showed additional weakness as MSTR slipped another 0.20% before Friday’s opening bell. The stock has now declined more than 9% during the last trading week. However, MSTR still holds a gain of roughly 5% since the beginning of the year.
The stock remains significantly lower on a yearly basis despite earlier rallies connected to Bitcoin strength. MSTR has fallen almost 58% over the past twelve months, according to recent market data. Consequently, traders continued reacting to broader pressure affecting both technology stocks and digital assets.
Several Wall Street firms maintained positive long-term targets despite the recent weakness in Strategy shares. TD Cowen retained its buy rating and increased its MSTR price target to $400 this week. Meanwhile, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani maintained a separate 12-month target price of $450.
Bitcoin prices also remained under pressure during Friday trading across global crypto exchanges. Bitcoin traded near $77,384 after moving between $76,655 and $78,004 during the previous 24 hours. Options market data also indicated expectations for a potential decline toward the $75,000 level amid ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical pressure.
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) displayed strength on Friday, rising 34% over the last 24 hours to $2.32, leading artificial intelligence-based tokens in a rally fueled by NEAR’s network upgrades and NVIDIA’s bullish revenue forecast.
NEAR is trading 50% higher than its price seven days ago and has gained a whopping 115% over the last 90 days.
Key takeaways:
- NEAR price surged 50% in seven days, hitting six-month highs as AI crypto tokens rallied on strong market momentum.
- NEAR Protocol upgrades focused on AI, privacy and scaling boosted investor confidence and trading volume above $1 billion.
- A breakout from a multi-year wedge pattern puts $5.75 in focus if NEAR clears resistance between $2.60 and $3.
NEAR price rallies to six-month highs
Data from TradingView shows that NEAR’s recovery began on Monday, rising 58% to a six-month high of $2.34 on Friday from a low of $1.48.
Accompanying NEAR’s price growth is an uptick in its trading volume, which has increased by 190% to $1.15 billion over the last 24 hours, reinforcing the intensity of the buyers.
NEAR/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The altcoin’s jump above $2.30 triggered over $9.85 million in short liquidations, as those betting against the price were caught off guard.
The gains come after NEAR Protocol announced of major upgrades focused on privacy, AI integration, and network scaling.
Source: X/NEAR Protocol
Aurora, the Ethereum-compatible scaling solution built on NEAR, also announced the update of its Aurora Intents Widget. The update integrated ADI Chain as a new entry point, enabling smoother cross-chain swaps, deposits, and application flows for users.
Source: Aurora
These developments demonstrate ongoing technical progress within the NEAR Protocol ecosystem, potentially increasing demand for blockspace and the NEAR token.
NEAR price rallies as AI tokens recover
NEAR is not the only AI-themed token outperforming the crypto market today. Other cryptocurrencies in the AI sector have witnessed impressive 24-hour gains, including Grass (GRASS), OpenServe (SERVE) and Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET), which have gained over 27%, 21% and 11% over the day, respectively.
Performance of top AI tokens by market capitalization. Source: CoinMarketCap
Notably, the surge in AI tokens has also been accompanied by an increase in their total market value. The market capitalization of AI and big data crypto projects and tokens has risen by 8% over the past 24 hours to $21.44 billion at the time of publication, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the sector.
Market capitalization and volume of AI and big data tokens market. Source: CoinMarketCap
Broader sector momentum was fueled by positive signals from Nvidia’s AI dominance and revenue forecasts. Nvidia, which maintains an 81–90% share of the AI accelerator market, reported massive profits of approximately $81.6 billion in Q1 2026 and raised its projected revenue opportunity through 2027 to $1 trillion.
Source: X/Cointelegraph
Historically, Nvidia events have triggered strong rallies in NEAR price, as seen in February when the altcoin soared 58% following the company’s Q4 2025 earnings report.
How high can NEAR price go?
NEAR’s latest rally saw it break out of a multi-year falling wedge that has capped the price since late 2024.
The NEAR/USD pair now faces stiff resistance at the $2.60-$3.0 supply zone, where major moving averages sit, as shown on the weekly chart below.
A break above this level would clear the path toward the measured target of the wedge at $5.75, roughly 160% above the current price. The relative strength index has increased to 63, indicating increasing upward momentum.
NEAR/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
In an X post on Tuesday, MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said NEAR is displaying “one of the most bullish charts” in the market, adding that a continuation was in the cards as long as it held $1.40 as support.
“The first real resistance zones for $NEAR are at $2 and $2.25-$2.50,” Van de Poppe said in a follow-up post on Thursday, adding “it’s clearly trending higher,” with the next target near $2.75.
NEAR/USD daily chart. Source: X/Michael van de Poppe
Crypto World
F2Pool founder who controls 11% of bitcoin’s hashrate to lead first SpaceX mission to Mars
Chun Wang, the Chinese-born Maltese-Kittitian crypto investor who co-founded F2Pool, has been named Mission Commander for SpaceX’s first commercial human spaceflight interplanetary mission to Mars, crucial to Elon Musk’s plans to send one million people to the Red Planet.
Wang, whose mining pool controls roughly 11.3% of the global Bitcoin network hashrate and whose personal bitcoin assets are estimated to exceed $300 million, will take a two-year leave from his current role securing digital ledgers to leading humanity’s next frontier in deep space.
The SpaceX announcement comes as the company owner Elon Musk’s aggressive plans to colonize the Red Planet and establish a multi-planetary civilization continue to accelerate.
A two-year trek into the unknown
The ambitious, multi-phase timeline will take Wang on a a week-long circumlunar fly-by within approximately 125 miles of the moon’s surface alongside Dennis and Akiko Tito before launching on the historic Martian trajectory.
Target launch windows are currently driving technical preparations for a planned 2026 departure. Once launched, the crew will spend two consecutive years in space. The deep-space itinerary includes a full external exploration of the Earth-Moon system, a high-altitude fly-by of Mars, and a complex return trajectory back to Earth.
Navigating deep-space risks
Operating in deep space for 24 months introduces severe operational risks, including severe hardware fatigue and the volatile thermodynamics of managing cryogenic fuel during extended coasts in deep space.
To mitigate these hazards, SpaceX is debuting its next-generation Starship V3 architecture. The upgraded vehicle features vacuum-jacketed header feed lines, high-voltage cryogenic recirculation systems, and 60 integrated custom avionics units capable of handling distributed fault isolation up to 9MW of peak power.
The crew will faces acute biomedical dangers when gathering critical diagnostic telemetry. One of Wang’s team key tasks is performing advanced behavioral health tracking and capturing the first-ever human X-ray images in microgravity to evaluate long-duration physiological deterioration.
The path to a multi-planetary future
Wang’s mission is designed to deliver the crucial operational data required to transition Mars exploration from short-term novelties to permanent, self-sustaining habitats.
The data crew is expected to return to Earth, which will directly stress-test Starship’s autonomous navigation matrix, deep-space radiation shielding, and in-space propellant transfer mechanisms.
The SpaceX team’s findings will be vital to achieving Musk’s ultimate objective: verifying rapid vehicle reuse and validating the logistical baseline required to safely transport millions of tons of cargo and eventually a million citizens to the Martian surface.
The journey to Mars announcement comes as SpaceX, the satellite and space rocket company, confidentially filed for its public offering targeting a valuation upwards of $1.75 trillion, the largest in history. It also comes as Musk’s company officially revealed, for the first time, its bitcoin holdings, totaling 8,285 BTC.
TLDR
- Trump Media transferred 2,650 bitcoin worth about $205 million to Crypto.com.
- The transaction took place during late U.S. evening hours based on blockchain data.
- Trump Media originally purchased 11,542 BTC for about $1.37 billion at a higher average price.
- Bitcoin currently trades well below the company’s acquisition cost, leading to large unrealized losses.
- The company now faces an estimated $455 million loss on its bitcoin holdings.
Trump Media has transferred 2,650 Bitcoin worth about $205 million to Crypto.com. The move adds pressure on its crypto strategy as losses deepen. Trump Media now faces an estimated $455 million unrealized loss on its bitcoin holdings.
The transaction occurred late in U.S. evening hours, according to blockchain data. Analytics firm Lookonchain reported the transfer publicly.
Trump Media Bitcoin Transfer Raises Pressure on Crypto Strategy
The latest transfer involved 2,650 BTC moved to Crypto.com. Bitcoin traded near $77,341 during the transaction window.
Trump Media previously moved 2,000 BTC four months earlier. That earlier transfer was valued at about $175 million.
The company originally bought 11,542 BTC for about $1.37 billion. Its average purchase price stood at $118,522 per bitcoin.
Bitcoin now trades well below that acquisition level. This gap has led to a large unrealized loss.
Based on current prices, losses total around $455 million. The figure reflects the difference between purchase and market value.
Blockchain records confirm the timing and destination of the transfer. Lookonchain shared the data through a public update.
Financial Strain and ETF Withdrawal Follow Crypto Moves
The transfer comes days after Trump Media withdrew its spot bitcoin ETF application. Analysts said economics, not regulation, likely drove the decision.
ETF analysts stated the sector has seen weaker returns recently. They suggested profitability concerns influenced the withdrawal.
Trump Media has not issued a detailed statement on the ETF move. The company has also not clarified the purpose of the Bitcoin transfers.
Financial results show mounting pressure on the business. The company reported a first-quarter net loss of $405.9 million.
Revenue for the same quarter totaled just $871,200. That compares with a $31.7 million loss in the prior year period.
The widening loss reflects increased costs and investment exposure. Crypto holdings appear to contribute to financial volatility.
The company continues to hold a large bitcoin position despite recent transfers. Remaining holdings still exceed several thousand BTC.
Bitcoin price have remained below the firm’s average purchase level. This has kept unrealized losses elevated.
The latest blockchain transaction marks the most recent update in Trump Media’s crypto activity. No further transfers have been confirmed since the reported move.
Tanya Denisova, chief operating officer of Robinhood Crypto, is leaving the firm, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.
Denisova had been employed by the popular trading platform for over five years, according to her LinkedIn profile.
Neither Robinhood nor Denisova responded to requests for comments.
The departure comes amid Robinhood missing its first-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, mainly due to weaker crypto trading activities. Crypto-related revenue, one of Robinhood’s biggest sources of transaction income, fell 47% year over year to $134 million, down from $252 million. The drop comes as the company works to reduce its reliance on crypto market swings and reposition the business beyond price-cycle volatility.
Robinhood enables users to trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), options, and cryptocurrencies through a mobile-first app. The company also offers retirement accounts, cash management services, and market insights designed to simplify investing and broaden access to financial markets.
The firm has expanded its presence in crypto by offering commission-free trading for major digital assets, including bitcoin , ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and , directly within its app.
The company also provides crypto wallets, onchain transfers, staking services in select markets, and educational tools aimed at newer investors. As part of its broader strategy to bridge traditional finance and digital assets, Robinhood has continued to grow its crypto offerings internationally while positioning itself as a simple, low-cost entry point into the crypto market
Read more: Robinhood stock falls 8% after big earnings miss due to weak crypto trading revenue
The exploiter who drained the Verus-Ethereum bridge of over $11 million has returned $8.5 million to the project’s team, while keeping $2.8 million as a white-hat bounty.
This comes barely a day after the Verus community and its developers offered the reward in exchange for the hacker meeting a set of terms.
Hacker Accepts $2.8 Million Bounty
The incident took place on May 17, with the hacker taking advantage of a missing validation step on one of its cross-chain bridge contracts, which allowed them to drain approximately 103.6 tBTC, 1,625 ETH, and 147,000 USDC. Following the hack, the project’s team decided to stop its block-producing nodes to prevent further transfers and issued an emergency patch.
Verus later said on social media that it was offering the Ethereum bridge exploiter a 1,350 ETH bounty in exchange for returning 4,052 ETH within 24 hours, adding that it would stop any investigations and not pursue charges if the conditions were met.
“If you return a total of 4052.4 ETH to the address 0xF9AB…C1A74 within 24 hours specified above, we will understand that as your agreement to these terms, and we will uphold our stated agreement to cease further investigation of you,” wrote the team.
Blockchain security firm PeckShieldAlerts has since reported that the hacker transferred 4,052 ETH back to the team’s address, recovering 75% of the stolen funds while retaining a 25% bounty of 1.350 ETH. However, Verus has yet to issue a formal acknowledgment of the recovery on their platforms as stipulated in their initial statement.
Developer Flags Possible AI Use in Hack
The update comes as the crypto sector is dealing with a rise in the number of bridge exploits, with the Verus incident being the eighth of this kind this year. According to PeckShield, attackers have made off with a total of $328.6 million from several cross-chain protocols like THORchain, ZetaChain, KelpDAO, HyperBridge, CrossCurve, Squid Router, and IoTeX.io as of Mid-May.
But the Verus case is notable because the complexity of the exploit suggests hackers are using AI to help execute it. The protocol’s lead developer, Mike Toutonghi, explained in an article how the technology might have helped them understand the system’s rules closely enough to design transactions that bypassed checks and tricked the Ethereum contract into accepting the malicious cross-chain transfer.
Elsewhere, Vitalik Buterin shared insights on how AI can still be used to strengthen security instead of breaking it. Responding to community concerns about the technology creating non-stop exploitation opportunities, the Ethereum co-founder countered by saying that AI-assisted formal verification could be used as a strong defense against security failures in the crypto industry.
The post Verus Bridge Exploiter Returns $8.5M, Keeps $2.8M as Bounty Reward appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Seasoned crypto investor Kevin Warsh took his oath as the 17th Chair of the world’s most powerful central bank this morning. President Donald Trump presided over the oath at the White House, the first such ceremony there since Alan Greenspan’s initiation in 1987.
Crypto investors are excited.
Warsh is 56 years old and disclosed roughly $190 million worth of assets earlier this year, including stakes in more than 20 crypto projects.
Jerome Powell, his predecessor, had very little interest in crypto and no disclosed crypto investments.
Warsh’s Office of Government Ethics disclosure from April, in stark contrast, was 69 pages long. It cataloged joint holdings with his wife, Estée Lauder heiress Jane Lauder.
Two positions in Stanley Druckenmiller’s funds were worth more than $50 million apiece.
A diversified investor, Warsh’s crypto exposure is smaller by allocation yet broad in scope. His disclosure names Solana, Optimism, dYdX, Compound, Polychain, Polymarket, DeSo, and Flashnet. Warsh holds most of these positions through the venture vehicles.
He’s committed to divest any conflicting positions and will also accept a one-year cooling-off period to ensure his investment management practices are long-term oriented.
Crypto enthusiasts interpreted his portfolio as a resume.
Warsh’s Senate confirmation vote was a slim 54-45, the narrowest margin for an incoming Fed chair since at least the 1970s.
Fascinating Kevin Warsh quotes about crypto
Not only because of his extensive crypto portfolio, fans point to Warsh’s pro-easing and pro-liquidity stances as bullish catalysts for inflows into the crypto sector.
For example, at his April 21 hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Warsh blamed pandemic-era inflation on “the fatal policy error going back four or five years,” a direct attack on Powell.
He’s also called inflation a “choice” and described the Fed’s overgrown balance sheet, which once peaked near $9 trillion, as “fiscal policy” in disguise.
Specifically on the topic of crypto, Warsh said in a May 2025 Hoover Institution interview that bitcoin “can often be a very good policeman for policy.”
He floated similar logic in a 2018 Wall Street Journal (WSJ) op-ed, comparing the asset to gold.
In that same Hoover Institution interview, Warsh continued, “I think of [bitcoin] as an important asset that can help inform policymakers when they’re doing things right and wrong.”
No US dollar CBDC (except, maybe, for wholesale?)
Like most senior members of the US government, Warsh is generally opposed to a US dollar central bank digital currency (CBDC).
In response to a question by Senator Bernie Moreno in April 2026 as to whether the Fed could legally issue a retail CBDC, Warsh replied, “they don’t have the right and I think it would be a bad policy choice.”
He further agreed to a follow-up question that he would oppose any exploration of a CBDC to the full extent of his power as Fed chair.
Interestingly, in a 2022 WSJ op-ed, Warsh advocated for a digital dollar for wholesale transactions in order to remain competitive with China.
Indeed, a direct quote from Warsh from 2022 remains in print. He said, “The US should announce the essential design features of a digital dollar to be used exclusively for wholesale transactions,” which is apparently superseded by his April 2026 promise above.
Read more: Crypto wants Trump to replace Jerome Powell with a pro-stimulus Fed chair
What the crypto industry expects from Kevin Warsh
During the early days of Warsh’s term, crypto traders are hopeful that he’ll pump their bags.
Obviously, they hope he’ll quickly cut the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to ease liquidity conditions and encourage speculative inflows.
Moreover, stablecoin issuers such as Standard Custody & Trust are hopeful that Warsh will approve their Fed master account banking applications. All stablecoin issuers also hope he holds to his anti-CBDC promise, so that they can continue to compete in the marketplace with their private US dollar proxies.
Prediction markets are also interested in anything Warsh can do to keep regulators from impeding their growth.
Today, the same morning Trump swore Warsh in, the House Oversight Committee opened an insider-trading investigation into Polymarket and Kalshi, demanding documents from Shayne Coplan and Tarek Mansour.
Warsh’s own divested Polymarket investment still sits in the disclosure record. Perhaps he could make some phone calls to calm things down.
The new US central bank chairman will probably spend his first month telling crypto fans that his Fed will be smaller, friendlier, and less inflationary than under Powell. Time will tell if he follows-through on any of their aspirations.
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Kalshi is backing a new advocacy group to fight the gaming lobby over prediction market regulation.
Summary
- Americans for Fair Markets launched with Kalshi support to counter sportsbook and casino opposition to prediction markets.
- The group tapped former Deputy White House Chief of Staff Taylor Budowich as its strategic advisor.
- Prediction markets have grown into a roughly $500 billion asset class with millions of monthly U.S. users.
The new organization, Americans for Fair Markets, launched on May 22 to shape federal policy on prediction markets and federally regulated exchanges. It will run paid and earned campaigns to counter what it describes as false narratives spread by sportsbook and casino interests.
AFM has tapped Taylor Budowich, who most recently served as Deputy White House Chief of Staff under Susie Wiles, as its strategic advisor. The hire signals Kalshi’s deepening ties to Republican political circles as the prediction market industry faces intensifying regulatory scrutiny.
Why Kalshi is escalating its lobbying effort
The launch comes as the gaming lobby mounts its own offensive. FairPredicts, a new group backed by casino interests and led by former Governor Chris Christie through the American Gaming Association, recently began a six-figure ad campaign targeting Kalshi directly.
“We’re not going to be outspent or out-organized by entrenched interests protecting their monopolies,” said John Bivona, AFM board member and Kalshi’s Head of Government Relations.
AFM will join the existing Coalition for Prediction Markets but focus specifically on campaign-style tactics. Kalshi has seen 32x growth in annualized trading volume, and the broader industry now represents roughly $500 billion in assets.
As crypto.news reported, prediction markets have been moving toward institutional adoption, with Bernstein pointing to Kalshi’s first bespoke block trade as a milestone. The company also explored crypto perpetual futures earlier this year.
The regulatory backdrop is shifting rapidly. The bipartisan Gillibrand-McCormick bill dropped earlier this month as the first comprehensive federal framework for prediction markets.
The CFTC is also undergoing a rulemaking process expected to strengthen consumer protections. Kalshi previously secured data partnerships with Fox and CNN, embedding real-time prediction odds into mainstream news coverage.
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