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Massive $20K Bull Market For Ethereum Coming, But $1,500 Could Come First: Analysts

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Crypto investor ‘DeFi Dad’ said on Tuesday that once Ether prices reach $5,000, it will take off, mirroring the price action Bitcoin saw almost a decade ago.

The last cycle “was so off for ETH, despite all that’s been built on Ethereum,” he said, citing major institutional involvement, stablecoins, and ETFs.

“Fundamentals clearly needed time to catch up with price, and we over-corrected as we normally do in crypto.”

ETH to $20K or $1,500?

He forecast ETH could rise tenfold to around $20,000 in the next bull market by mirroring Bitcoin’s 2017 fractal patterns, with explosive gains in 2027 to 2028 following the current bear market.

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DeFi Dad took 12 months of fractals from BTC price action in 2017 when it exploded from $2,000 to $20,000 to map out what 12 months of price action might look like for Ethereum after the market has bottomed.

However, that market bottom is still looming, and analyst ‘Chain Mind’ predicted that ETH would dump back to the $1,500 level if current support is lost.

ETH IS GOING TO DUMP HARD SOON?

This is the crucial moment for ETH:

Hold = we are going up
Break = dump to ~$1,500 levels

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Means the next daily close decides the next major ETH move.

Notifs on, I’ll update you on this pic.twitter.com/q22p7ssg9d

— 𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗜𝗡 𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗗 ⛓🧠 (@0xChainMind) May 25, 2026

This would be a “trendline reset,” sending prices back to October 2023 and April 2025 levels when Ether crashed to long-term support at $1,500.

“This is the crucial moment for ETH,” the analysts said.

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Analyst Alex Marzell observed that support above $2,050 is still holding, but predicted a pullback to February levels if it were to break.

“If ETH loses this area convincingly, the move toward the $1,800 support zone could accelerate fast.”

Ethereum FUD is currently at peak levels following an exodus from the Ethereum Foundation and from long-term network proponents, such as David Hoffman of Bankless, who threw in the towel and sold all of his ETH.

ETH Price Outlook

Spot prices are reacting to the negative sentiment, trading lower on the day as ETH failed to hold above $2,100.

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The asset fell to an intraday low of $2,060 during the Wednesday morning trading session, and has lost almost 10% over the past fortnight.

It has been consolidating for four months but appears to be heading toward the lower bound of the channel, below the psychological $2,000 level.

The post Massive $20K Bull Market For Ethereum Coming, But $1,500 Could Come First: Analysts appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Tether Leads $1.4B Series C Round in Neura Robotics

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Tether led a Series C funding round worth up to $1.4 billion in Neura Robotics.
  • The deal closed after several months of discussions between Tether and the German robotics firm.
  • Neura Robotics develops humanoid robots, precision arms, and autonomous mobile machines.
  • Tether will integrate its Wallet Development Kit directly into Neura’s robotic systems.
  • Tether stated that autonomous robots require built-in financial tools to complete transactions.

Tether confirmed it led a Series C round worth up to $1.4 billion in Neura Robotics. The stablecoin issuer announced the deal on Wednesday and outlined plans for wallet integration. The agreement follows earlier reports that Tether considered investing in the German robotics firm last year.

Tether commits up to $1.4 billion to Neura Robotics

Tether said it backed the raise of up to $1.4 billion from strategic and financial investors. The company described the move as a step toward advancing machine intelligence and autonomy. It stated that the investment supports a firm reshaping how machines think and move.

The company said, “By supporting the raise of up to $1.4 billion, the group takes a decisive step.”

It added that Neura Robotics aims to redefine how machines interact and transact in the physical world. Tether confirmed the funding round closed after several months of negotiations.

Neura Robotics develops humanoid robots and precision robotic arms for industrial use. The company also builds autonomous mobile robots and service robots for multiple sectors. Tether stated that these systems will operate where human and machine collaboration creates value.

Neura raised nearly $140 million in January 2025 from BlueCrest, C4 Ventures, Lingotto, and Volvo Cars Tech Fund. That round expanded its capital base before the Series C financing. The company competes with Tesla, which also plans to mass-produce robots.

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Tether has expanded its venture capital activity through profits from its USDT stablecoin business. The firm holds reserves in yield-bearing assets such as U.S. Treasurys. These investments generate income that supports strategic deals like the Neura round.

Tether wallet tools set for robotic ecosystem integration

Tether said it will deploy technology within the Neura robotics ecosystem. The company confirmed that Neura will integrate Tether’s Wallet Development Kit into robotic systems.

Tether stated, “To be truly autonomous, robots need financial tools.”

The integration will allow robots to access digital payment capabilities directly. Tether explained that the wallet tools will support transactions within machine environments. The statement outlined plans to embed payment functions into robotic workflows.

Tether did not disclose the exact timing for deploying the wallet technology. However, it confirmed that development teams will work on direct integration. The company linked the effort to its broader digital asset infrastructure strategy.

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Neura operates from Germany and focuses on collaborative robotics platforms. The company builds systems designed for industrial and service applications. It stated that its products aim to function across varied environments.

Tether did not release further financial details beyond the $1.4 billion figure. The company emphasized that diversified investors participated in the round. It confirmed that the funding and integration plans form part of the closed Series C agreement.

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This One Altcoin Flashes Red Flags That Preceded RaveDAO and LAB Crashes

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Audiera (BEAT) Price Performance

Audiera (BEAT) reached an all-time high of $6.11 on Wednesday, extending its weekly gain to 378% and monthly climb to nearly 960%. The surge has revived warnings that the token shares traits with RaveDAO (RAVE) and LAB before their collapses.

The rhythm gaming token now holds a $1.75 billion market cap and a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $6 billion. However, less than a third of its supply circulates, a structure critics tie to recent manipulation episodes.

Audiera (BEAT) Price Performance
Audiera (BEAT) Price Performance. Source: Coingecko

Why Audiera BEAT Draws RAVE and LAB Comparisons

Audiera’s circulating supply stands near 288 million BEAT, about 29% of its 1 billion maximum, according to CoinGecko.

RAVE and LAB launched with the same structure. Each caps supply at 1 billion tokens, and each traded with under a third of supply circulating.

On-chain investigator ZachXBT alleged insiders holding over 90% of RAVE’s supply coordinated the RAVE pump-dump scheme. The alleged activity spanned Binance, Bitget, and Gate.

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RAVE shed more than 95% of its value in a day. It now trades near $0.32, almost 99% below its April peak of $27.88.

The pattern repeated when LAB crashed 77% in two hours on June 2, erasing close to $6 billion.

That collapse arrived days after LAB’s record high, with most holders still locked. LAB has since lost 53% in a week.

Audiera now faces similar scrutiny. Risk threads claim BEAT’s top 10 wallets control around 85% of supply.

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BeInCrypto could not independently verify that figure.

“It looks like BEAT has the potential to become the next LAB/RAVE like scam coin It’s currently trading close to $6bn FDV. Strangely, it hasn’t been trading on negative funding at all. Maybe the funding will start pushing negative later to inflict max pain to shorts…,” one analyst noted.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

Pseudonymous trader DeFiVillain has flagged whale flows and funding dynamics resembling the RAVE playbook.

Similar warnings circulate in Telegram trading channels.

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A Gaming Narrative Sets BEAT Apart, for Now

However, Audiera differs from its troubled predecessors in important ways.

The project is a Web3 revival of the Audition dance game on BNB Chain.

Binance ran a BEAT trading competition on Binance Alpha this spring, giving the token mainstream exchange exposure.

Moreover, no investigator has published a formal case against the project.

Warnings so far come from traders rather than hard evidence, though analysts flagged RaveDAO’s surge on similar grounds before its collapse.

RaveDAO (RAVE) Price Performance.
RaveDAO (RAVE) Price Performance. Source: Coingecko

Still, the gap between BEAT’s $6 billion FDV and $1.75 billion market cap leaves 712 million tokens to enter circulation.

How those tokens reach the market may decide whether BEAT escapes the pattern its critics describe.

The post This One Altcoin Flashes Red Flags That Preceded RaveDAO and LAB Crashes appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Anthropic’s new model refuses to find smart contract vulnerabilities

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Anthropic’s new model refuses to find smart contract vulnerabilities

The recently released public version of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 AI model won’t let you audit your crypto smart contracts — or do much else when it comes to cybersecurity.

The new large language model (LLM), a scaled-back version of Anthropic’s previous Mythos model, was released yesterday to a mixed reception from scared and excited onlookers eager to see what it could do. 

Much of the early criticism has focused on its guardrails. 

Because of Fable 5’s’ touted capabilities, Anthropic has released it with a set of restrictions called “classifiers” that redirect topics on “cybersecurity, biology and chemistry, or distillation” to Claude Opus 4.8. 

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As a result, users who’ve tried to use Fable 5 to audit a smart contract — that is to check the underlying code of crypto infrastructure for any security vulnerabilities — have found themselves redirected to Opus. 

  • Colossus Pay CEO Joseph Delong said Fable 5 “outright refuses to do a smart contract audit,” and complained that it “won’t even look at my repo.”
  • Yearn developer Banteg claimed that the model’s safety measures stopped all security-related prompts from working. They added, “It doesn’t matter if it’s smart if 100% of your queries go straight into a trash bin.” 
  • Crypto security expert Taylor Monahan noted that Fable 5 “changes nothing for your average security person,” and that the Mythos safeguards are not the typical ones “you encounter (and evade) on opus.”
  • Wallet recovery tool founder Zeng Jiajun shared how Fable 5 frequently blocked his requests while citing usage policy violations. He said the AI model is “Too sensitive for even an Ethereum app development.”

Read more: Anthropic’s public Claude Fable release has crypto on edge

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Mythos restrictions expand beyond smart contracts

So-called “distillation” guardrails are also being noticed. These involve redirecting anything that relates to the training of a rival AI model and the attempted distillation of Claude’s abilities. 

It warns that this can be done by authoritarian countries, and that it “could indirectly lead to the proliferation of near-frontier AI capabilities — and these could be released without the appropriate safeguards.”

Indeed, former Palantir biology specialist Nabeel S. Qureshi noted that Anthropic is “invisibly nerfing any requests that target frontier LLM development.”

Biology-related safeguards have also drawn criticism. Biologist Olivia H. Scharfman claimed she couldn’t even greet Fable 5 before it switched to Claude Opus 4.8.

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Scharfman called for “better classifiers fast.”

Read more: Secret Claude model ‘better than all but the most skilled humans’ at hacking

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In another instance, the controversial race science blogger Jordan Lasker noted that he too couldn’t greet Fable 5 and that it barred questions on the mitochondria. 

These particular guardrails are in place as Anthropic is concerned about the potential for abuse, specifically the creation bioweapons and viruses. 

It said, “Our priority was to safely release Fable as soon as we could, even at the cost of overly broad safeguards. Therefore, for the time being we have arranged for Fable to fall back to Opus 4.8 on most requests related to biology and chemistry.”

The full release of Mythos is limited

Anthropic released Mythos last April. It was described as both a dangerous tool for hackers and a revolutionary upgrade for cybersecurity. 

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Because of this, Mythos’ initial release was limited to 50-60 large companies as part of Project Glasswing. 

These firms will still have access to Mythos 5, while other early recipients include “select biology researchers” who are able to access Mythos 5 with just the biology and chemistry safeguards lifted “until our broader trusted access program is available.”

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Kalshi now requires users to reveal employers as it fights insider trading and market manipulation

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RaveDAO accused by ZachXBT of ties to ‘suspicious’ crypto exchange activity

Kalshi said it will start requiring some users to disclose their employers as part of a broader push to crack down on insider trading and market manipulation on its prediction-market platform.

The federally regulated exchange said Tuesday the new policy will apply to markets it considers at higher risk for insider activity or abuse. Those traders may be screened before being allowed to place trades.

The company said the changes take effect immediately and follow recommendations from an independent Surveillance Audit Committee that reviewed Kalshi’s enforcement systems, monitoring tools, and trading controls.

“For markets with heightened insider or manipulation risk, we now collect employment information before traders can participate,” Kalshi said in a statement. The company said the process is designed to identify people who may have access to material nonpublic information tied to an event or outcome.

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The platform’s new measures come as prediction markets face increasing scrutiny. Recently, a Yale and London Business School paper analyzing Polymarket trades from 2023 to 2025 found that only 3% of traders accounted for most price moves. The study highlighted the case of a U.S. Army Green Beret arrested in April for $400,000 bets on Polymarket on the raid in Venezuela to extract then-President Nicolas Maduro, in which he participated. A month later, a Google engineer was also arrested for alleged insider trading on Polymarket.

Prediction markets allow users to bet on the potential outcome of future events, including elections, economic data and corporate and political developments. As the industry grows, critics have raised concerns that traders with insider knowledge could exploit thinly traded or highly sensitive markets.

Kalshi said it blocked more than 100 potential insider trades in the first quarter using new screening tools. The company also said it opened more than 150 investigations, referred more than 20 cases to law enforcement, and issued five disciplinary actions. The company did not provide details about those cases, and the figures could not be independently verified.

The exchange also announced a new risk-scoring system that evaluates markets based on factors including insider-trading risk, market importance, regulatory concerns, and national-security implications. Markets viewed as carrying elevated manipulation risks could face tighter controls or be rejected from listing altogether.

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Kalshi said it also added new whistleblower reporting tools that allow users to flag suspicious trading activity directly from individual markets.

Tim Meggs, CEO and co-founder of LO:TECH, a transparent market data infrastructure firm, told CoinDesk that prediction markets have grown so rapidly that questions about their integrity need to be addressed as they are no longer theoretical. “Kalshi’s move to require employment verification, risk-scored markets, and whistleblower tools highlights how the sector is starting to build the surveillance infrastructure to match its ambitions,” Meggs said. “That maturation matters as much as the volume numbers.”

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Campaign Against Bank Crypto Limits Triggers UK Regulatory Debate

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Crypto Breaking News

Stand With Crypto UK is urging its 286,000 members to challenge British banks restricting transfers to cryptocurrency exchanges, arguing that blanket limits on transactions to regulated platforms are restricting access to digital assets.

The advocacy group cites a report from the UK Cryptoassets Business Council that found 40% of crypto transactions are blocked or restricted by UK banks. The group argues that many of the restrictions apply to transfers involving exchanges registered with the country’s Financial Conduct Authority and do not account for individual customer risk profiles.

According to the report, one exchange recorded nearly £1 billion in declined transactions over a one-year period due to bank-side rejections, while 80% of surveyed platforms reported an increase in blocked or restricted transfers.

Stand With Crypto said members can submit complaints through a tool on its website that generates letters challenging transfer restrictions, with responses from banks expected to inform the campaign’s next steps.

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“Your money. Your choice.” is the tag line of Stand With Crypto UK’s advocacy campaign.

Mark Fairless, CEO of UK clearing bank ClearBank, told Cointelegraph that banks should take a risk-based approach to crypto-related payments rather than imposing broad restrictions across the sector.

“Interventions should be targeted and proportionate, as broad blocks risk undermining competition and the ability of regulated firms to operate effectively in the UK,” Fairless said.

Related: EU proposes ban on 11 crypto platforms in Russia sanctions push

Bank transfer restrictions and regulatory response

The campaign underscores a broader regulatory conversation about access to crypto markets and the role of banks in enforcing anti-money-laundering regimes. Analysts note that difficulty moving funds into regulated, FCA-registered exchanges can complicate onboarding for institutional and retail investors alike, potentially pushing activity toward non-compliant or offshore venues if constraints persist. Regulators have emphasized that the UK framework must balance consumer protection with competitive access to regulated crypto services.

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UK stablecoins and market policy trajectory

The push around transfers sits within a wider UK policy debate over stablecoins and the infrastructure required to support a domestic market. In early May, a House of Lords committee examined proposed stablecoin regulations, with lawmakers questioning industry executives on bank-run risks, AML controls and the potential impact on traditional banking. Later in May, the Bank of England signaled it was reconsidering proposed caps on stablecoin holdings and reserve requirements as part of its review of pound-denominated stablecoins.

The policy objective is to foster a domestic stablecoin market while ensuring financial stability and access to banking for regulated issuers. DefiLlama data show the global stablecoin market cap, with non-dollar tokens comprising a relatively small share of overall liquidity.

In June, a House of Lords committee urged regulators to avoid measures that could inhibit the growth of GBP-denominated stablecoins, warning that reserve and holding rules could limit viability. The committee urged regulators to balance oversight with the ability of the sector to scale.

Broader digital-asset regulation and market infrastructure

Beyond stablecoins, UK regulators have advanced broader digital-asset initiatives. In May, the Bank of England proposed extending operating hours for the country’s settlement infrastructure to support tokenized markets. In June, the Financial Conduct Authority proposed allowing certain retail-focused investment funds to allocate up to 10% of their portfolios to crypto exchange-traded products, signaling a move toward broader institutional access while maintaining risk controls.

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These developments occur in the context of ongoing efforts to align supervisory frameworks with evolving market structures, including settlement resilience, asset tokenization, and investor protection rules. The regulation-focused stance aims to shore up financial stability, while enabling compliant actors to participate in a growing digital-asset ecosystem.

As policymakers refine the UK’s approach, observers will monitor how banks implement risk-based decisioning for crypto-related payments and how draft stablecoin rules translate into licensing, custody, and liquidity requirements for regulated issuers.

Closing perspective: The UK’s stance on bank-partnered access to crypto markets and the pace of stablecoin regulation will shape the viability of domestic players and international cooperation on cross-border standards. Market participants should watch for further regulatory guidance, bank responses to complaints, and updates to the overarching digital-asset framework.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Anthropic proposes legal powers to stop high-risk AI launches

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Connecticut passes sweeping AI regulation law SB5

Anthropic has proposed new AI policy frameworks as advanced systems gain stronger capabilities.

Summary

  • Anthropic proposed new AI policy frameworks covering frontier model safety and economic preparation.
  • The framework calls for government powers to block or deter dangerous AI deployments.
  • Anthropic wants independent testing, stronger security rules, and resilience plans for AI-related risks.

The company wants governments to set rules for frontier models and prepare workers for AI’s economic impact. Its plan covers dangerous deployments, independent testing, cybersecurity, and public resilience.

Anthropic seeks stronger AI safety powers

Anthropic introduced two proposals under its “Policy on the AI Exponential” plan. The Advanced AI Framework focuses on powerful models, while the Economic Policy Framework addresses workers and shared financial benefits. The company argued that AI now moves faster than current policymaking systems. It also said governments need authority to block or deter dangerous model deployments.

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Under the plan, civil penalties would tie to global annual revenue. Repeat violations would bring higher penalties, based on the proposed framework. The framework also calls for frontier developers to test models before release. Developers would publish summaries, safety frameworks, and system cards for powerful AI systems.

Independent evaluators would review model tests and risk reports. Anthropic also wants developers to maintain strong security programs for model weights and training systems. The proposal supports transparency laws in states such as California and New York. However, the company argued that public disclosure alone no longer matches the speed of AI development.

The framework targets catastrophic AI risks

The proposed rules would apply only to the most advanced AI systems. Anthropic set the threshold at models trained above 10²⁵ floating-point operations. The framework would also cover companies earning more than $500 million in AI-related revenue. Firms spending more than $1 billion on AI research and development would also fall under it.

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Anthropic named four main risk areas in the proposal. These include biological risk, cyber risk, loss of control, and automated AI research. For biological risk, the company warned that unsafe systems could help attackers develop harmful viruses. It also noted that similar AI tools can support drug discovery.

For cyber risk, frontier models can find serious software flaws at large scale. Anthropic said those capabilities raise concerns for hospitals, energy grids, and other key systems. The company also highlighted risks from systems acting outside developer control. Automated AI research could increase biological, cyber, and control risks if safeguards fail.

Developers face testing and security duties

Anthropic wants frontier developers to publish regular risk reports. These reports would describe the developer’s overall risk posture and model safety work. The framework also calls for at least one qualified independent evaluator. That evaluator would review company evaluations and publish findings on model risk reports.

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Governments and industry would also set standards for those evaluators. The proposal says evaluators need funding and access to frontier models. Security rules form another major part of the framework. Developers would protect their full development environment from outside attackers and insider threats.

Companies would describe their security programs publicly at a high level. They would also share more details with a designated government agency when requested. Anthropic said policymakers could start with lighter rules and adjust them over time. The framework says regulation should follow model capabilities and evaluation standards.

The proposal includes resilience measures

The second part of the framework focuses on public resilience. Anthropic recommended stronger planning for biological, cyber, and control-related AI risks. For biology, the proposal includes gene synthesis screening and early-warning biosurveillance. It also mentions protective equipment stockpiles and tools to reduce airborne transmission.

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For cyber, the framework calls for stronger internet software and support for critical infrastructure operators. It also recommends replacing legacy systems in essential infrastructure. Governments should also track frontier cyber capabilities through a dedicated function. Anthropic proposed joint work between government and industry on model safeguards.

The company said work on loss-of-control and automated research risks remains less developed. It called for better tools to detect, contain, or shut down unsafe systems. Anthropic urged policymakers to act as model capabilities continue improving. The company said AI governance must keep pace with the technology.

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Binance Stock Trading Draws 84% of First-Week Volume From Emerging Markets

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Binance Stock Trading Draws 84% of First-Week Volume From Emerging Markets


Binance's direct stock-trading platform drew more than 80% of its first-week volume from emerging markets, according to data the company published this morning. The figures position the June 1 launch as a distribution play for underserved retail users, with a 2% share of TradFi-referenced… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Raydium’s old liquidity pools exploited for $1.3 million

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Hyperbridge exploited less than two weeks after April Fools’ day hack prank

Decentralized exchange Raydium has reportedly suffered a $1.3 million exploit that saw attackers drain the firm’s old liquidity pools.

Crypto investigator “Specter” spotted what they believed to be a Raydium exploit at 3pm GMT+1, claiming that the funds have been bridged to Ethereum and are now being laundered via Tornado Cash. 

They also shared what they believe to be the attacker’s addresses:

  • 0x0EaBAAb9a56011c6158D4aA7f2E49A82fB34E609
  • 4WnPebowR4HHfumvNPaDjG6Pa5Hi1jxLm6xmmBq33QVk.

Since Specter’s post, Raydium official “Infra” has revealed that the firm is aware of the exploit and is conducting a security review to determine what happened. 

Infra says, “No current users of Raydium are affected by this exploit or would have been able to interact with these pools through the UI since their deprecation.” 

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They claim that after an initial review, 150,177 RAY, 5,603 SOL, and 893,700 USDC have been stolen. Together, the stolen funds are worth roughly $1.34 million.

Raydium official “Infra” acknowledging the exploit.

Read more: One laptop: How poor security ruined Humanity Protocol

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The cause of the attack has been attributed to a vulnerability associated with “insufficient validation of the LP mint,” and an exploit with Raydium’s legacy AMM V3 program that was phased out in 2021.

Infra said, “Because the program did not properly verify the LP mint address, an attacker was able to create a new mint and use it as the LP token, bypassing the intended proportion checks.”

It added that all other Raydium mainnet programs avoid this vulnerability as they use a “virtual supply mechanism for proportion checks and correctly verify the LP mint along with all other relevant account information.”

Infra ruled out any key compromise or authority-level issue, and claimed that the attack was caused “by a self-contained logic flaw.”

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According to Infra, affected users will be fully compensated by Raydium’s treasury.

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Bitcoin Price Drops Follow BOJ Rate Hikes: Is Another Crash Developing?

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Bitcoin Price Drops Follow BOJ Rate Hikes: Is Another Crash Developing?

Since 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) has posted four major corrections after interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), with declines ranging from 18% to 28%. This dynamic places renewed attention on the BOJ’s June 16 policy decision. 

Data currently point to a variety of pressures on BTC, with BTC whale distribution and exchange inflows possibly carrying more weight than Japanese monetary policy.  

BOJ hikes and Bitcoin drawdowns: Will history repeat?

The relationship between BOJ policy and Bitcoin has gained attention because each rate increase since Japan ended its negative interest rate policy has been followed by a sizable correction. 

Following the March 19, 2024, hike, Bitcoin corrected by 18%. The July 31, 2024, increase preceded a 18.5% decline. 

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After the Jan. 24, 2025, hike, Bitcoin fell nearly 25%, while the Dec. 19, 2025, decision was followed by a 28% drawdown. 

Across the four events, Bitcoin’s average decline was 22.4%. 

BTC/USD, one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The sell-offs did not occur under identical conditions. The March 2024 correction followed Bitcoin’s breakout to new all-time highs during the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) cycle. The July 2024 decline followed months of consolidation below peak levels and coincided with the sharp unwind of the yen carry trade, which affected global markets. 

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The January and December 2025 drawdowns followed extended rallies and periods of contraction for both BTC spot and futures 30-day demand. 

BTC: spot and perpetual futures demand growth contraction. Source: CryptoQuant

The relationship between BOJ policy and Bitcoin is often linked to the yen carry trade. For years, investors borrowed yen at low rates and deployed that capital into higher-yielding assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies. 

When the BOJ raises rates, some of those positions can be reduced, weighing on risk assets. The July 2024 hike coincided with one of the largest carry-trade unwinds in recent years and a sharp sell-off across global markets, not only BTC. 

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The influence of that particular condition appears smaller today. The BOJ has already raised rates to 0.75% from -0.1% in March 2024, while Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to 2.68% from 0.63% over the same period. 

Japan’s 10-year bond yield increase since 2024. Source: TradingEconomics

With Japan’s borrowing costs already higher than during the negative-rate era, each additional hike represents a smaller policy shift than the BOJ’s initial move away from ultra-loose monetary policy. The June 16 meeting would extend an existing tightening cycle rather than introduce a new one. 

Likewise, market analyst Cryptic Trades noted that concerns about a renewed yen carry-trade unwind are overblown, arguing that Japan has effectively moved away from its deflationary policy framework in 2024. The analyst added,

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“The Yen Carry Trade has been dead ever since 2024. It is also a BIG nothing burger for the markets.”

Related: Bitcoin price may slide toward $30K as institutions dump 450% of daily BTC supply

BTC whales add to the pressure

While the BOJ meeting is a macro event that traders may monitor, onchain data points to a more immediate source of pressure.

Crypto analyst MorenoDV noted that Binance has recorded rising BTC inflows from wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC and 1,000–10,000 BTC since the sell-off began in early June. As a result, the exchange’s 30-day whale inflow sum has climbed to $6.6 billion. 

Bitcoin whale to exchange flow. Source: CryptoQuant

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The pressure is already visible in realized activity. Short- and long-term whales have collectively locked in more than $2.5 billion in losses during the decline, indicating that some large holders have actively reduced exposure.

Short-term whales appear particularly vulnerable. The cohort is carrying roughly $16 billion in unrealized losses after briefly returning to profit for around 10 days in early May. Those positions now sit close to break-even levels, creating a potential source of supply during rebounds. MorenoDV said, 

“Taken together, these three readings describe the stress profile of a late-stage bear market: capitulating whales, distribution into weakness, and a fragile short-term cohort with its finger on the trigger.”

Related: Bitcoin may act as a ‘canary in the coal mine’ as risk-off pressure spreads: Bitwise

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Tim Draper Explains Why Bitcoin Is Safer Than Banks in the Quantum Era

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Venture capitalist Tim Draper says fears that quantum computing will break Bitcoin (BTC) are misplaced, arguing that traditional banks and the dollars held within them face a bigger security risk.

In comments published by Benzinga and amplified in an X post on June 9, Draper said he considers his BTC holdings safer than cash sitting in a bank account.

Draper Says Banks Face Greater Quantum Risk Than Bitcoin

Responding to concerns that quantum computers could eventually crack BTC’s cryptography, Draper pointed out that financial institutions rely on older infrastructure that would be easier to compromise than the Bitcoin network.

“Quantum will crack the banks long before it touches the blockchain,” he wrote on X. “Everyone’s panicking about quantum breaking Bitcoin’s encryption while banks are running on legacy infrastructure that makes Bitcoin look like Fort Knox.”

He also argued that even if something did happen to the Bitcoin network, full node operators could roll back to the last secure block. Banks, as he put it, “don’t have that option.”

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The rollback point is worth examining carefully. While that type of fork is technically feasible, it needs consensus from many node operators and miners, and it is usually only resorted to in extreme circumstances. Additionally, it would contradict Bitcoin’s claim of immutability, a tension that Draper did not address.

BTC investor Lark Davis backed Draper’s broader framing, saying that if people used “basic security hygiene,” then their holdings would be safer than cash in the bank, unless their keys got stolen. He also insisted that quantum technology will break all legacy security, so people need to stop singling out the cryptocurrency.

Draper also repeated a long-held prediction that Bitcoin will one day eclipse the dollar. He broke down the mechanism for that in a Crunchbase interview earlier in the year, where he said a time will come when retailers will “only take Bitcoin,” and were that to happen, he believes there would be a run on the dollar. Such is his confidence in the asset that in April this year, he reiterated an old bet that BTC could hit $250,000, this time giving it 18 months to do so.

A More Complicated Picture From Security Researchers

The quantum threat to Bitcoin has been analyzed in detail by several researchers, including on-chain analyst James Check, who in April argued that the commonly cited figure of 6.3 million BTC with exposed public keys overstates the actual risk.

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According to him, active institutions such as exchanges and custodians, which face most of that exposure, are already working on solutions to mitigate that risk, meaning the genuinely high-risk portion is the roughly 1.716 million BTC in early-era Pay-to-Public-Key addresses, most of which he said are assumed to be permanently lost coins from Bitcoin’s earliest blocks.

Meanwhile, Draper’s infrastructure argument is directly counter to security expert Jameson Lopp’s. According to the Casa co-founder, who co-authored the BIP-361 proposal to freeze quantum-vulnerable addresses, banks can upgrade to counter quantum threats “orders of magnitudes faster” than Bitcoin, given that the cryptocurrency needs broad decentralized consensus before any protocol change can be made.

He estimated that it could take as much as a decade for a full Bitcoin upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptography, and that is the core difference. Draper is betting that banks will fail first, but Lopp thinks that Bitcoin’s slowness to upgrade will be the harder problem to solve.

The post Tim Draper Explains Why Bitcoin Is Safer Than Banks in the Quantum Era appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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