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Michael Saylor says Bitcoin four-year cycle is dead

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Saylor hints MicroStrategy’s BTC buys front‑run future supply squeezes

Michael Saylor said Bitcoin no longer follows the traditional four-year cycle tied to halving events. He said the market has moved into a new phase where capital flows and credit now shape price direction.

Summary

  • Michael Saylor said Bitcoin no longer follows the four-year halving cycle seen in prior markets.
  • He said capital flows, bank credit, and institutional adoption now drive Bitcoin’s long-term price path.
  • Adam Livingston said MicroStrategy built a lead that rivals may struggle to match in Bitcoin.

Michael Saylor said the old pattern linked to Bitcoin halving events is no longer the main market driver. He stated that the traditional four-year cycle is “dead” as Bitcoin takes on a different role in global finance.

For years, many traders linked Bitcoin’s price moves to halving events that cut miner rewards. Those events were widely seen as a major reason for recurring boom-and-bust phases in the market. Saylor now argues that this structure no longer defines Bitcoin’s path.

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Capital flows now lead Bitcoin price action

Saylor said Bitcoin’s next phase depends more on how money enters the asset through institutions and credit systems. He wrote that “price is now driven by capital flows” and added that bank and digital credit will shape Bitcoin’s growth path.

That view shifts focus away from supply shock alone. It places more attention on broader financial access, including how banks, funds, and large firms use Bitcoin as part of treasury and reserve strategies.

Saylor’s remarks came as large firms continue to build products and services around Bitcoin. That trend has changed how many market participants view the asset, especially as regulated access has expanded through financial platforms.

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He said Bitcoin has changed its place on the world stage. In his view, adoption by traditional finance now carries more weight than past cycle models built around miner reward cuts.

MicroStrategy strategy remains part of the debate

The discussion also returned to MicroStrategy’s large Bitcoin holdings. Market commentator Adam Livingston said Saylor and MicroStrategy have effectively “won the game” of institutional Bitcoin adoption through early and aggressive accumulation.

That claim reflects the company’s large position and its long-running Bitcoin treasury model. 

At the same time, Saylor’s latest comments add to a wider market debate over whether Bitcoin now trades more on institutional demand than on its historic halving cycle pattern.

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Crypto World

Odds of a US Invasion of Iran Spike After Trump’s Threat of Escalation

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Iran, US Government, United States, Donald Trump, Oil and Gas, Polymarket

The odds of the United States invading Iran this year surged to 63% on the Polymarket prediction platform on Sunday, following comments made by US President Donald Trump on social media.

Despite the surge, the odds of an invasion before 2027 are still down from the high of 68% on March 29, due to a US troop buildup in the region and comments from the Trump administration that the United States was considering capturing Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil shipping station.

Volume on that prediction was about $3.74 million at the time of publication.

Iran, US Government, United States, Donald Trump, Oil and Gas, Polymarket
Odds of the US invading Iran before 2027 surge to 63%. Source: Polymarket

On Tuesday, after Trump signaled that the US might leave Iran in the next two to three weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) jumped by about 2.6% and the S&P 500 index to added about 2.91%. However, Trump reversed course with his latest statement on Sunday. He wrote:

“Tuesday will be power plant day, and bridge day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it! Open the fuckin’ strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell.”

At last look, BTC was little changed, trading up less than 0.1% in the past 24 hours, remaining anchored around the $67,500 level, according to data from TradingView.

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The mixed signals from the Trump administration on the war and how long it will last continue to create investor uncertainty and an impact on all risk asset prices, as market analysts, traders and economists attempt to forecast the effects of the war.

Iran, US Government, United States, Donald Trump, Oil and Gas, Polymarket
Source: Donald Trump

Related: Polymarket takes down market on missing US pilot after backlash

Trump’s comments draw a wave of online backlash, but asset prices barely budge

“I wish Trump would stop threatening Iranian civilian infrastructure. It’s a lose-lose for us: backing down hurts his negotiating credibility,” economist Peter Schiff said in response to Trump’s comments. 

“Carrying it out escalates the war, damages US standing, generates sympathy for Iran and fuels Iranian hatred for America,” Schiff continued.

“I assumed this was a fake, it isn’t — wild,” podcaster and Bitcoin advocate Peter McCormack said.

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Brent crude oil, the most widely used pricing benchmark for the international spot oil market, remains elevated, closing Thursday at more than $109 per barrel. Trading is scheduled to resume on Monday following the Easter holiday weekend.

Magazine: Inside the Iranian Bitcoin mining industry