Bitcoin’s recent price surge has triggered a possible bullish signal for even larger gains.

That signal is the price topping its 365-day rolling simple moving average.

On Sept. 22, bitcoin rose above its 365-day average near $80,900 for the first time in 310 days, Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku, founders of Altcoin Pro, said in an email conversation.

Altcoin Pro found that bitcoin was higher 12 months later in each of the five previous instances in which it regained its 365-day average after spending at least 90 days below it. The gains ranged from about 59% to more than 1,400%, though the largest increase came in 2012, when bitcoin was a fringe asset.

A bizarre drama played out on YouTube this past week, when a channel called Mighty Mike Plays posted a video explaining how nine-year-old “Mighty Mike” apparently got a hold of his father Dave’s company card and spent $118,000 on a YouTube ad campaign.

However, the story immediately appeared to have a number of holes, and within a few days there were too many red flags for influencers, who had initially boosted the story’s reach, to ignore.

Just a kid and his dad

Mighty Mike Plays, which features Roblox and Minecraft videos, was created in June of 2024 but only started posting videos in August of this year.

Over the past month, the channel has uploaded 175 long and short form videos — a considerable number for a child of nine.

When it suddenly started reaching the front page of YouTube ads, people began to comment that Mike was going to get in trouble with his father. They were, in fact, being played by the marketing.

On September 14, the channel released a video titled “Message from Dad… Mighty Mike Plays is Over.”

In the video, Dave speaks while Mike plays Minecraft. He states that Mike had spent $118,000 on the YouTube ad campaign and worst of all that the charges were on his company card and now he might get fired.

Dave didn’t explain why he would ever use a company card for anything but company purchases or how using the card even for a $20 ad campaign — as he stated was his intention — wasn’t illegal, but no red flags outside of this were obvious yet.

Read more: Kalshi’s AI ad turned an Asian YouTuber into ‘a white dude’

99 problems and the vid is one

On September 18, a new video was released, once again with Mike playing Minecraft and Dave speaking. Unfortunately, this time the video was nothing but red flags. Dave states that he’s been fired from his job and that the company has demanded that he pay back all $118,000 within 30 days.

He doesn’t clarify what will happen in 30 days if the company isn’t paid back.

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Dave doesn’t show any proof of ad spend or any emails with his colleagues where they discuss the circumstances. Instead he suggests that the family will soon lose their home because he’ll have to sell it within the 30-day period.

All of this sounds like fiction, but it only gets more absurd.

Dave states that he doesn’t want to start a GoFundMe or Kickstarter to support his family and doesn’t specify a reason, though it’s thought that if you lie about the reason you need funds on these websites you can get sued and the money can get clawed back.

Instead, he says, he wants to sell merchandise online to try to raise the funds himself — a bizarre decision.

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Slop merch, slop campaign

Dave’s website is filled with AI-created merchandise, all selling for immense prices (nearly $100 for t-shirts that say “118k” and “67 wassup chat”), some supposedly already sold out.

And, as eagle-eyed YouTubers quickly pointed out, the terms of service, which previously promised that returns would be allowed within 30 days, now state that ALL SALES ARE FINAL.

It’s unclear if this is legal or binding to anyone who bought the merchandise before the change.

Needless to say, it’s now Dave who’s claiming that he’s going to be suing numerous influencers and YouTubers for suggesting that he’s a scammer, emailing them to say he’s hired a lawyer and will be taking them to court for libel — an expensive move for a man who supposedly just lost his job and owes $118,000.

Regardless, Mike and Dave are posting videos again but have yet to address any of the previous red flags littering their videos.

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Protos will follow the story for more information if anything changes.

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Digital asset treasury (DAT) companies—publicly traded firms that hold cryptocurrencies and finance additional crypto buys by trading at a premium to their holdings—are losing the advantage that once made the model attractive to investors, according to a report from DWF Ventures released this week.

DWF found that among the 20 largest DATs by assets under management, only four trade above their holdings’ value. When the market stops paying that premium, the financing mechanism behind the strategy can weaken, making it harder for these companies to expand without diluting shareholders.

Key takeaways

• According to DWF Ventures, only four of the 20 largest DATs by assets under management trade above an mNAV of 1, indicating a premium over their crypto holdings.
• The report points to broad discounts as evidence that investors are paying less for public “crypto exposure” than they did when the model was new.
• DWF says the mNAV premium investors historically paid tends to have peaked when the strategy drew the most attention and leveraged Bitcoin demand was strongest.
• Separately, Sequans Communications has exited its Bitcoin treasury position entirely after selling its remaining 314 BTC, illustrating how companies may unwind when the model stops working.

Premiums fade for the largest treasury funds

DWF Ventures’ analysis centers on mNAV, a measure designed to compare a company’s market value to the value of its cryptocurrency holdings. The firm reported that just four of the 20 largest DAT companies trade with mNAV above 1—meaning their market capitalization exceeds the value of their crypto assets.

The four companies identified by DWF are Bit Digital, Strive, Hyperliquid Strategies, and BitMine. For the rest of the cohort, the market values their equity below the value of the crypto they hold, signaling that the typical “equity premium” narrative is no longer broadly supported.

DWF attributes this shift to investor behavior: where earlier demand helped these stocks command premiums, current discounting suggests capital markets participants are less willing to pay extra for crypto exposure through a treasury structure rather than simply owning the underlying asset.

The strategy’s origin—and why performance has mattered

DAT branding grew around a model associated with Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which pioneered the Bitcoin treasury approach in 2020. As DWF notes, once that blueprint became widely known, many DAT stocks began to underperform a simpler alternative: holding Bitcoin directly.

Even for companies that did manage to outperform in certain periods, DWF says the edge over holding the cryptocurrency itself has generally been small. That matters because the treasury thesis does not rely only on asset price exposure—it relies on being able to access capital efficiently. When the market no longer offers a premium, the structural advantage can evaporate.

DWF also highlights that the premiums investors paid for DAT stocks were not constant over time. The firm points to a pattern where the “equity premium to NAV” was strongest when investor attention surged and leverage demand for Bitcoin was elevated.

Where the premium peaked—and what the market is now signaling

According to DWF, the premium cycle appears tied to timing and market conditions. The report states that the strategy’s premium investors paid generally peaked when the approach was new and attracting fresh interest.

As an example, DWF cites Strategy’s mNAV peak in late 2024 during Bitcoin’s rally, when demand for leveraged BTC exposure was strong. The broader inference is that DAT valuations may improve when markets are eager to buy more Bitcoin exposure—especially through structures that can, at least in theory, expand holdings over time using equity issuance.

However, the latest data suggests those conditions have changed. DWF’s findings describe a market that is increasingly unwilling to price treasury companies above their crypto holdings, leaving less room for the strategy to compound through incremental capital raises.

Exits and earlier warnings about a “model break”

The new DWF report arrives as another example of treasury model unwinding comes into view. Earlier this week, French semiconductor company Sequans Communications disclosed it has sold its remaining 314 BTC, completing an exit that began with a redemption of convertible debt in May. After the sale, Sequans reported it holds no cryptocurrency on its balance sheet.

While Sequans’ disclosure is specific to its own balance sheet, it fits a broader theme raised in prior research: if DAT stocks trade at discounts to NAV, the economics of raising new equity to buy more crypto can become counterproductive.

DWF is not alone in making that case. In September 2025, Standard Chartered raised concerns about an “mNAV collapse” even as Bitcoin and crypto markets were rising, warning that such a shift could prompt consolidation among DAT firms. Galaxy Digital also sounded a similar note, arguing that the DAT model “critically depends on a persistent equity premium to NAV.”

The logic is straightforward. When shares trade at a premium to the value of holdings, companies can issue stock and use the proceeds to acquire additional crypto without diluting existing shareholders’ stake relative to NAV. But if shares trade below NAV, new fundraising becomes more dilutive and can undermine the central mechanism that makes the strategy attractive.

Galaxy research analyst Will Owens captured the risk succinctly, writing that “if the premium collapses, or worse, flips to a discount, the model begins to break.”

That concern has become more relevant during the current market backdrop. The article notes Bitcoin moved from a record high of more than $126,000 in October to below $60,000 before recovering to around $86,000. Even with the rebound, the relationship between crypto prices, leverage demand, and treasury-company valuation premiums appears to have weakened compared with earlier phases of the cycle.

What investors should watch next

With DWF showing that most of the largest DAT firms now trade below the value of their crypto holdings, the key question for shareholders is whether any renewed equity premium emerges as leverage demand and market sentiment improve—or whether discounts persist, forcing more companies to restructure, dilute, or exit treasury strategies entirely.

Sequans Communications has sold its remaining 314 Bitcoin, completing its exit from a Bitcoin treasury strategy that once saw the semiconductor company hold more than 3,200 BTC.

On Thursday, the French semiconductor company said the exit follows the redemption of its convertible debt in May and will allow it to refocus on its core cellular internet-of-things (IoT) and software-defined radio businesses.

CEO Georges Karam said the company used Bitcoin sales to eliminate its convertible debt and strengthen its balance sheet, leaving Sequans with no cryptocurrency holdings and no outstanding debt beyond government-financed research and development obligations.

Sequans launched its Bitcoin treasury strategy in June 2025 after announcing a $384 million sale of equity securities and convertible secured debentures. At the time, Karam called Bitcoin “a premier asset and a compelling long-term investment.”

The company began reducing its holdings less than six months later, selling 970 BTC in November to redeem half its convertible debt. By May 2026, Sequans said it was “no longer pursuing” the treasury strategy and would monetize its remaining Bitcoin over time.

Related: REX launches 2x leveraged ETF tied to Bitcoin treasury firm Strive

Bitcoin treasury exits mount in 2026

A growing number of digital asset treasury companies have abandoned or scaled back their accumulation strategies in 2026 amid the crypto bear market.

In late July, Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, identified at least nine companies that had fully liquidated or abandoned their Bitcoin and crypto treasury strategies in 2026, alongside several others that had reduced their holdings.

Source: Mathew Sigel

UK-listed Satsuma Technology was among the more drastic reversals. In July 2025, the company raised 100 million British pounds ($135 million) through convertible loan notes to expand its Bitcoin treasury, in what Cointelegraph reported at the time was a UK record for a Bitcoin treasury raise.

A year later, shareholders voted overwhelmingly to return substantially all of the company’s capital and cancel its listing. The board subsequently authorized the closure of its trading activities and the sale of its entire 669 BTC position.

Other companies to fully liquidate their Bitcoin holdings this year include Bitdeer, Genius Group and Prenetics. MARA Holdings and Empery Digital have also made substantial sales without abandoning their treasury strategies altogether.

The companies cited by VanEck’s Sigel exited or reduced their holdings for a range of reasons, including debt repayments, working capital needs, shareholder returns and shifts in business strategy.

Magazine: Big Questions: Does Satoshi actually own 1.1 million Bitcoin? 

U.S. and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased agreement to end the war, according to a Reuters headline.

The deal would include a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and D.C. lifting its economic blockade of Iran.

The major obstacle in talks, according to Reuters, citing Iranian, regional, and Western sources, is neither side wanting to be the first to surrender its leverage. Thus, the phased approach — Iran reopening the Strait in exchange for the Trump administration to potentially give the Iranian government access to frozen assets.

For the moment, the news has sent oil lower by nearly $2 per barrel, though it’s still up 2% for the day. That’s easing interest rates by a couple of basis points, with the Nasdaq trimming an earlier 0.8% decline to just 0.2%.

Bitcoin has bounced a bit, now trading at $84,600, up 0.5% over the past 24 hours.

Litecoin , the cryptocurrency considered silver to bitcoin’s gold, and one that’s often missing from day-to-day crypto discussions, has bucked the broader market weakness over the past 24 hours.

LTC currently ranked 24th largest by market cap, has gained nearly 8% to $66 in 24 hours, the highest since January. Prices are up 37% this month, the best performance since November 2024, according to CoinDesk.

Bitcoin , meanwhile, has dropped 3% in 24 hours and is only up 6% for the month. ETH, XRP, SOL and other top 10 coins show a similar performance profile, lagging well behind LTC.

The exact reason for LTC’s outperformance is unclear as of now. The Litecoin Foundation attributed it to increased economic activity on the network.

The attorney general’s office has also ordered Spektor to forfeit cash, cryptocurrency and personal property with an estimated value of more than half a million dollars and make restitution of almost $16 million.

The investigation into Spektor’s criminal activities revealed he laundered the digital assets by swapping them across multiple crypto exchanges and consolidating them at “cash-out points.” He then converted them into other cryptocurrencies and placed bets, before converting them into cash with which he purchased gift cards or additional digital assets.

“Coinbase and most other companies will never call customers or ask to transfer crypto to a ‘safe wallet’. Don’t trust caller ID, sender names or lookalike domains that can be spoofed,” Gonzalez said, adding that scammers rely on urgency and pressure, so “never move money in a rush.”

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) said it would make AI, tokenization and other emerging technologies relevant to finance a new supervisory priority from 2027.

“Firms are increasingly using AI and tokenized products in day-to-day financial services to gain market share,” the financial watchdog said in a report released Wednesday, explaining why it is focusing on these two areas initially. “Technological innovation brings benefits but also risks,” it added.

Under its new supervisory program, the ESMA and national regulators across the European Union will examine how regulated firms use artificial intelligence and tokenized products in their core activities, rather than only in back-office operations.

The initiative, called “Innovation with investor safeguards,” will focus on building regulators’ ability to supervise new technology and ensuring firms have proper governance, reliable data and client-aligned outcomes.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has also recently announced several moves in the tokenization and stablecoin sectors of cryptocurrency. Earlier this week, the ECB said it plans to invest a small portion of its reserves in tokenized securities, giving it direct exposure to blockchain-based financial markets. T

Ondo Finance has launched three onchain portfolio tokens based on investment strategies developed by BlackRock, giving eligible investors outside the United States access to each portfolio through a single token.

Ondo Finance announced the launch on Sep. 24, naming the products Ondo Intelligent Portfolios. BlackRock developed the three opening strategies for Ondo, while Ondo Global Markets issues the portfolio tokens. Each token gives its holder economic exposure to a basket of underlying assets, according to the companies’ launch statement.

BlackRock strategies cover three investment approaches

Ondo lists BLKHIon as its high-income portfolio, BLKDIGon as its diversified-growth portfolio and BLKGRWon as its high-growth portfolio. The company says each has assets and target weights set at launch, with rebalancing scheduled at fixed intervals. Investors can inspect the portfolios’ holdings, weights, and rebalances onchain.

The income strategy gives investors a way to hold a basket focused on bonds through one token. The two growth strategies use different allocations for investors seeking exposure across multiple assets, according to Ondo’s product descriptions. The portfolios can include exposure tied to stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, depending on the strategy. A buyer receives the Ondo portfolio token rather than direct ownership of every security whose value the basket tracks.

Ondo says the tokens can move between supported wallets and be used in decentralized finance applications. Although transfers can take place around the clock, investors should distinguish the ability to trade a portfolio token from the trading hours of the U.S.-listed securities whose prices feed into it.

Lisa O’Connor, BlackRock’s global head of Model Portfolio Solutions and co-chief investment officer for Global Solutions, described the arrangement as a new way to deliver established portfolio strategies through digital infrastructure. BlackRock developed the strategies for Ondo’s products; Ondo issues the tokens and operates the onchain offering.

The supplied report describes seven model portfolios in Ondo’s rollout, including BlackRock’s three. Ondo’s Sep. 24 announcement specifically identifies the three BlackRock-based portfolios as the first to launch and says it intends to add more portfolios over time.

U.S. investors cannot access the opening portfolios

For American investors, the immediate distinction is access. Ondo says its new portfolio products are for eligible non-U.S. investors in permitted jurisdictions. Its launch materials describe economic exposure through tokens, while eligibility and local restrictions determine who can buy them.

The restriction is consistent with Ondo’s existing stock-token distribution. In coverage of Ondo’s NEAR launch, crypto.news reported on Sep. 22 that U.S. persons could not access Ondo Stocks under its current product terms, even though the tokens track U.S.-listed companies and ETFs. The NEAR integration initially made 20 tokenized assets available to eligible users, including products linked to Tesla, Nvidia, Apple and the Invesco QQQ Trust.

Ondo has also been developing a separate route for U.S. securities activity through Oasis Pro Markets, its registered broker-dealer and alternative trading system. The availability of that U.S. infrastructure does not change the stated non-U.S. eligibility for the newly announced portfolio tokens.

Ondo builds on stock tokens and BlackRock fund launches

The portfolio product follows several moves involving the underlying assets and the systems used to tokenize them. On Sep. 21, Ondo and Alpaca introduced an arrangement under which approved institutions can contribute existing stocks or ETFs and receive corresponding Ondo Stocks tokens. As reported in the conversion coverage, the service operates on Ethereum and BNB Chain, requires accounts with both firms, and grants access case by case.

A portfolio token serves a different purpose: it gives exposure to a basket rather than a single referenced stock or ETF. Ondo says holders can see the basket’s constituents and weights onchain. Its existing stock products provide some of the individual tokenized assets that can be assembled into portfolios.

BlackRock added tokenized money market products in August. One placed tokenized shares of an existing Treasury-based liquidity fund on Ethereum; another was designed for institutional stablecoin reserve management. In reporting on BlackRock’s European rollout, the outlet also covered tokenized share classes for institutional cash funds introduced with JPMorgan’s Kinexys platform. Those fund-share products have a different structure from the new Ondo portfolio tokens, which Ondo issues to provide economic exposure to baskets based on BlackRock’s strategies.

ONDO price rises as the company faces a control dispute

At the time checked, CoinGecko priced ONDO at about $0.497, up approximately 18% over 24 hours and 34% over seven days. The token’s 24-hour range ran from about $0.406 to $0.511. The price move coincided with the portfolio announcement and other recent Ondo developments; the market data alone does not establish which event drove the gain.

Meanwhile, Ondo remains involved in a dispute over its leadership and ownership following founder Nathan Allman’s death in May. Ondo confirmed his death in a June statement, when Ian De Bode said he was taking over as CEO. CoinDesk reported in September that Allman’s mother, other family members and an early investor were involved in court proceedings concerning the estate and control of the company. The competing claims remain allegations in the reported filings.