Bitcoin is showing short-term relief in price and sentiment metrics, but investors should stay wary of a potential relapse into the 2022 bear-market dynamics. New data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index (BSI) has moved into neutral territory for the first time in this bear market, even as BTC tries to push toward fresh highs. At the same time, broader market mood appears to be firming, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbing back from extreme fear, hinting at a cautious but improving backdrop for traders and holders.

Key points:

• Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has reached neutral territory (50) for the first time in this bear market, with BTC rallying toward $78,000.
• CryptoQuant cautions that the relief could be transient, echoing the pattern seen earlier in March 2022 when neutral readings preceded renewed price declines.
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has recovered to the 30s, marking the most bullish sentiment since January and signaling a shift, albeit from a still-fragile base.

Bitcoin Bull Score Index exits the “bearish” zone

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, which aggregates nine price metrics to gauge overall momentum, shows Bitcoin entering neutral territory as the price tests the $78,000 level. This marks the first time the index has broken above the early-bear-market axis toward 50 since the downturn began. A CryptoQuant analyst highlighted the milestone in a recent post, noting that it represents a transition point rather than a signal of a lasting trend.

“First time in this bear market that the Bull Score Index enters neutral zone (50),” wrote Julio Moreno on X, underscoring that the shift is a notable, yet potentially fragile, moment. The caution mirrors a familiar pattern from the prior bear cycle, when the bull-score flickered into neutrality only to retreat as selling pressure resurfaced.

The historical context matters. In March 2022, the BSI briefly touched neutral territory for about a week before the price resumed its decline, reminding markets that a neutral reading does not guarantee sustained upside. As market participants monitor April’s monthly close, the key question remains whether BTC can sustain strength beyond a near-term range and break decisively out of a multi-month plateau noted by observers at times this year.

At present, traders are watching for catalysts that could lift the trajectory beyond the current range. CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain described a balance in the near term, with price hovering around $74,000 and activity suggesting a tug-of-war between supply and demand. While the neutral reading of the BSI implies a more balanced dynamic than the steeply bearish readings of the past months, it does not remove the risk of renewed downside if demand cools or macro stress reasserts itself.

Sentiment steadies, though still cautious

Beyond on-chain momentum, sentiment indicators are painting a cautiously improving picture. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has recovered to a reading of 32 out of 100, moving away from the previous week’s Extreme Fear readings near 23. Although still categorized in the Fear territory, this shift signals a softening of negative mood among market participants. The index has roughly tripled in a little more than a week, reflecting a notable swing in trader psychology amid the price action.

“This places the market in a transitional phase, as investors await new catalysts to determine the next direction.”

The Fear & Greed Index is a lagging measure that aggregates multiple factors to gauge overall investor mood. Its upward movement toward a neutral zone aligns with the improved technicals observed in the BSI and with reports that Bitcoin has regained some supply-demand balance in recent days. Still, the index remains below the level that would typically accompany strong bullish conditions, reinforcing the sense that a breakout remains uncertain and conditional on broader market drivers.

In addition to the fear-greed cycle, broader market commentary has cited the potential for renewed volatility tied to macro and sector-specific developments. Cointelegraph’s coverage this week highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin breaking out of a multi-month trading range, a development that would align with improving sentiment but could hinge on fresh liquidity, risk appetites, and systemic cues from traditional markets.

With BTC flirting with the $78,000 level and the BSI shifting into neutral territory, traders face a decision juncture. The immediate question is whether the balance between supply and demand can be maintained in the face of potential macro headwinds or if renewed selling pressure could reassert itself as the market digests upcoming catalysts.

Investors should pay particular attention to:

• April monthly close: A decisive move above or below key thresholds could recalibrate market expectations and alter positioning among traders who use the BSI and sentiment signals to time entries and exits.
• Resistance and liquidity dynamics: If the price breaks higher, traders will be watching for a sustained flow of bids and a shift in open interest that confirms conviction beyond a short-term squeeze.
• Correlation with broader risk assets: As global risk appetite evolves, Bitcoin’s performance often tracks or diverges from equities and macro risk proxies, potentially amplifying moves around upcoming data releases or policy signals.

The evolving picture is a reminder that a neutral or even bullish signal in one metric does not erase risk. The 2022 bear episode began with a period of moderation before renewed declines; today’s readings suggest a transitional phase rather than a clear, enduring uptrend. For investors, the prudent approach remains to balance on-chain signals with macro awareness and to watch how fresh catalysts influence both price and sentiment in the weeks ahead.

As the market weighs these readings, the next moves in Bitcoin will be closely watched by traders, institutions, and developers alike. Whether this neutral tilt is a prelude to a sustainable rally or a temporary pause before further volatility remains an open question, but the current data clearly signal a shift away from the most bearish extremes toward a more balanced, if fragile, footing.

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Key takeaways

• Pepe extends gains on Wednesday, stretching its rally from the 50-day EMA.
• Derivatives data show heightened retail activity as risk-on sentiment returns to the market.

Pepe (PEPE) is experiencing a steady rally on Wednesday, trading in the green for the third consecutive day. The frog-themed meme coin is gaining traction as broader market sentiment improves, lifting retail demand for meme coins.

Market sentiment boosts meme coin demand

The broader market’s upside, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding the US-Iran blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and faltering peace talks, is boosting retail interest in meme coins. 

According to CoinMarketCap, the Fear and Greed Index is at 62 on Wednesday, showing a consistent rise in risk appetite since the US-Iran ceasefire announcement.

On the derivatives side, the PEPE futures Open Interest (OI) stands at $213.25 million, with a 7% increase in the last 24 hours. 

This surge in futures positions indicates growing participation from traders, aligning with the recovery in the spot price—further supporting a bullish outlook for PEPE.

Pepe tests breakout of key resistance level

The PEPE/USD 4-hour chart is bullish and efficient as Pepe’s short-term recovery remains intact, with a three-day rebound from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.00000368.

However, PEPE is still trading below the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, which could cap the ongoing rally.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60 is edging higher from the midline, indicating mild positive momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, keeping the histogram bars positive.

At press time, PEPE is trading at $0.00000393. If the rally should continue, PEPE must break above its descending trendline near $0.00000400, close to the 100-day EMA at $0.00000404. 

A breakout above this level could pave the way for a rally toward the 200-day EMA around the $0.00000500 psychological resistance. 

On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $0.00000368 provides immediate dynamic support, with further downside protection at the February 6 low of $0.00000311.

Bitcoin (BTC) could see further upside volatility as several technical indicators suggested the BTC price was due for a “powerful“ upward move.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands indicator now sees the potential for a massive price breakout.

• BTC price needs to overcome resistance at $80,000 for more upside. 

Bollinger Bands suggest Bitcoin’s “bull run is next”

Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands have reached their tightest point ever on the monthly time frame, signaling that volatility should be expected soon.

Related: Bitcoin ‘Bull Score’ hits six-month high as 2022 bear-market fears linger

Bollinger Bands (BB) is a technical indicator used by traders to assess momentum and volatility within a certain range.

The “tightest Bitcoin monthly Bollinger band squeeze, ever,” said analyst Cantonese Cat in an X post on Wednesday.

“​​This will lead to a very powerful move when it expands,” the analyst added.

The BTC/USD pair gained about 230% between December 2023 and August 2025 to its current all-time high of $126,000, after breaking above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands.

Similar occurrences in 2020 and 2016 triggered the previous bull runs that saw BTC price rally more than 520% and 4,400%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Coinvo Trading shared a chart showing that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI has dropped to its lowest level since late 2022.

This coincided with the BTC/USD drop to a multi-year support trend line, an occurrence that has previously marked Bitcoin’s macro bottoms.

The last time this happened was at the bottom of the 2022 bear market, preceding a 350% BTC price rally to its previous all-time high of $73,800, reached in March 2024.

“The same exact trendline, the same oversold RSI, the same outcome,” Coinvo Trading said, adding:

“Bull run is next in line.”

As Cointelegraph reported, several Bitcoin metrics, including a bullish MACD crossover on the weekly chart, suggest that a BTC price breakout is about to begin. 

Bitcoin must reclaim $80,000 next

Bitcoin’s 6% rally over the last three days saw the BTC/USD pair fill the $74,000-$77,000 CME gap created over the weekend.

Traders are now looking at the next CME gap above $80,000, formed in early February.

MC Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said resistance at $79,000 could temporarily “stall” Bitcoin’s upward momentum

“Likely we’ll test it first, come back down for a little, find extra stamina, and then we’ll push through to $86K.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s whale order book showed “heavy sell pressure” between $78,000-$80,000, reinforcing the significance of this resistance level.

As Cointelegraph reported, a close above the $76,000-$78,000 resistance zone would confirm that the buyers are in control, clearing the path for a potential rally to $84,000.