Crypto World
Paul Grewal exits Coinbase before crypto’s biggest Senate battle
On July 8, Paul Grewal notified Coinbase that he was resigning as chief legal officer and corporate secretary, effective July 31. The company disclosed the departure in an 8-K filing the next day, and by Thursday evening the announcement had rolled through crypto media with the tone usually reserved for a retiring general. Grewal will move into an advisory role from August 1 through October 31, collect a lump sum equal to 3 months of base salary when the advisory period ends, keep the restricted stock units scheduled to vest on August 20, and remain on the board of Coinbase National Trust Company, the entity behind the company’s federal trust charter push at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. He says he is joining a startup he has not named.
Summary
- Paul Grewal is leaving Coinbase as chief legal officer just weeks before the Senate’s decisive CLARITY Act vote.
- The article examines Grewal’s role in Coinbase’s legal victories and why the industry’s biggest regulatory battle is shifting from courts to Congress.
- Coinbase’s leadership reshuffle signals a move from defending crypto in court to building regulated financial products.
The timing is the story. Grewal leaves at the end of the very month in which the CLARITY Act, the market structure bill he spent years advocating, faces its decisive Senate window. A merged draft is expected the week of July 13. Floor action is targeted for the week of July 20. The Senate breaks on August 7, and most analysts treat that recess as the effective deadline for passage in 2026. The lawyer who fought the Securities and Exchange Commission to a standstill is walking out of the command tent 2 weeks before the armistice vote.
That reading makes for a good headline, and it deserves an immediate correction: nothing in the record suggests Grewal is fleeing a losing fight. The more interesting question is the opposite one. What does it mean when the most consequential legal officer in crypto decides his work is finished before the law that would ratify it exists? The answer says a great deal about where Coinbase thinks the industry now stands, and about how much of the legal war was actually won in courtrooms versus how much still hangs on 7 undecided Democratic senators.
Six years that defined a legal era
Grewal arrived at Coinbase in the summer of 2020, hired away from Facebook, where he served as vice president and deputy general counsel, to replace Brian Brooks as the company’s top lawyer. Before Silicon Valley, he sat as a federal magistrate judge in the Northern District of California, a background that shaped the posture Coinbase would become famous for: when the government came, the company would not settle quietly. It would litigate, publicly and on principle.
His first major assignment was taking the company public. Coinbase listed on Nasdaq in April 2021 through a direct listing, the first crypto exchange to reach American public markets, a process that required convincing securities lawyers, auditors, and a skeptical SEC review apparatus that a crypto business could meet public company standards. The listing gave Coinbase a currency, a disclosure regime, and a legitimacy that would matter enormously in the fights ahead.
The defining fight arrived in June 2023, when the SEC under Chair Gary Gensler sued Coinbase, alleging the company operated as an unregistered securities exchange, broker, and clearing agency. Legal observers widely described the case as existential, not just for Coinbase but for the American crypto industry, because the theory behind it would have swept most token trading into the securities regime by enforcement rather than by rulemaking. Grewal ran the defense and paired it with offense.
Coinbase petitioned the SEC to write actual crypto rules, then sued when the agency refused. It fought in court to unearth internal SEC documents about the agency’s approach to the asset class. It moved its legal domicile from Delaware to Texas. And it poured resources into the political layer, with Coinbase becoming one of the largest funders of the Fairshake political apparatus, contributing $25 million alongside matching amounts from Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz.
The endgame came after the 2024 election. The SEC under new leadership dropped the Coinbase case in 2025, part of a broad retreat from the enforcement-first strategy, and the industry pivot from courtrooms to Congress produced the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, a fight crypto.news chronicled through its own bruising Senate negotiation, and then the CLARITY Act for market structure.
Grewal’s own summary, posted on X, was uncharacteristically sweeping: after helping take the company public, fighting the SEC and winning, moving the company from Delaware to Texas, and working to get GENIUS and soon CLARITY passed into law, now was his time for new adventures. He called leading the legal team through the biggest fight of the industry the single greatest achievement of his 6-year tenure.
It is hard to argue with the scoreboard. When Grewal joined, the American legal question was whether the industry would survive its regulator. When he resigned, the question was which of two friendly regulators would supervise it.
Anatomy of the SEC fight, and why it mattered beyond Coinbase
The Coinbase case deserves a closer look, because its mechanics explain both Grewal’s reputation and the industry’s current legislative posture.
The SEC’s June 2023 complaint was not a fraud case. It alleged no theft, no misrepresentation, no customer harm. The theory was structural: that a large share of the tokens trading on Coinbase were unregistered securities, which made Coinbase itself an unregistered exchange, broker, and clearing agency all at once. If that theory prevailed, every American platform listing those tokens faced the same triple liability, and registration was not a realistic cure because the SEC’s existing forms and rules were written for equities and had no workable application to token markets. The industry read the suit as an attempt to regulate by enforcement what the agency declined to address by rulemaking, and Coinbase built its defense around exactly that asymmetry.
Grewal’s strategic insight was to refuse the defendant’s crouch. Coinbase had already filed a rulemaking petition in July 2022 asking the SEC to write crypto-specific rules. When the agency ignored it, Coinbase sued to compel a response, eventually winning a court order forcing the SEC to explain itself, and an appellate rebuke when the explanation proved thin. In the main enforcement case, the company pursued discovery into the agency’s internal deliberations, seeking documents about how officials themselves discussed token classification, a move that transformed the lawsuit from a compliance dispute into an examination of the regulator’s own consistency. The judge in the Southern District of New York allowed core claims to proceed but also certified questions that exposed how unsettled the doctrine was. None of this guaranteed victory. What it did was raise the cost of the SEC’s strategy, publicly and procedurally, until a change of administration made retreat the path of least resistance.
The dismissal in 2025 was, as observers noted at the time, a massive win for Grewal, Coinbase, and the industry. It was also, and this is the part that matters for July 2026, a win by default. The core legal question, which tokens are securities and under what test, was never answered by a controlling appellate decision. The SEC withdrew; the doctrine did not change. That unfinished quality is why Coinbase pivoted its entire public affairs machine toward Congress, and why Grewal spent his final 18 months as much in Washington as in court. The company understood that it had won a battle of attrition, not a ruling it could cite forever.
The political arm of that pivot operated at a scale American finance had rarely seen from a single company. Coinbase became one of the top corporate political donors of the 2026 midterm cycle, with disclosed contributions exceeding $35 million by some tallies, most of it flowing through the Fairshake network of political action committees, which entered the year with roughly $193 million on hand. Whatever one thinks of that spending, it purchased something litigation never could: a House that passed the CLARITY Act 294 to 134 in July 2025, and a Senate Banking Committee that advanced it 15-9 in May 2026, as crypto.news has tracked through every procedural turn since.
The succession, and what it signals
Coinbase paired the departure with a reorganization that reveals how the company sees its next phase. Molly Abraham, a vice president of legal who joined Coinbase in March 2021 and previously served as general counsel of an electric aircraft startup, becomes general counsel and corporate secretary. Ryan VanGrack, another legal vice president who ran much of Coinbase’s courtroom strategy and previously served as general counsel at Citadel Securities, takes a newly created post as vice chairman and head of corporate affairs, a public-facing role focused on governments, regulators, and industry relationships worldwide. Faryar Shirzad continues as chief policy officer, keeping the Washington operation under unchanged leadership through the CLARITY endgame.
Read the org chart as a statement. The general counsel role goes to an operator whose framing of the moment, in her own words, is that the next chapter is all about building products. The combat portfolio, the part of the job that made Grewal a public figure, gets split into a diplomatic post for VanGrack and an unchanged policy shop under Shirzad. Coinbase is reorganizing its legal function from a war department into a foreign ministry, which is exactly what a company does when it believes the shooting war is over.
The market agreed, or at least did not object. COIN barely moved on the news, a nonreaction worth pausing on. A chief legal officer departing a company whose valuation spent years hostage to litigation risk would once have been a sell signal. In July 2026 it was a footnote, which is itself a measure of how thoroughly the legal overhang has drained out of the stock. The shares have other problems, trading around $165, closer to their 52-week low near $139 than to the high above $444, but those problems are market beta and revenue mix, not subpoenas.
There is also continuity where it counts. Grewal keeps his seat on the board of Coinbase National Trust Company and will keep working on the OCC trust charter, which received conditional approval earlier this year. The charter is arguably the most important regulatory project Coinbase has left, a federal banking-adjacent license that would anchor its custody and payments ambitions, and the company is keeping its most experienced regulatory hand attached to precisely that file.
The war that is not actually over
Here is the counterargument, and it is not a strawman: the general is leaving before the war ends, because the war has not ended.
The CLARITY Act is not law. It is a bill that needs 60 Senate votes and currently commands, by the most generous count, 55. The merged Banking and Agriculture text, reportedly more than 70 pages longer than earlier versions, has not been released. The ethics dispute over the Trump family’s estimated $2.3 billion in crypto holdings has broken multiple tentative compromises, and Democrats including Kirsten Gillibrand have said flatly that there is no bill without an ethics provision.
Even the two Democrats who advanced the bill in committee, Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks, have conditioned their floor votes on that fix. Law enforcement groups are fighting the developer protection language, a split crypto.news examined in detail, and a separate standoff over vacant SEC and CFTC commissioner seats has produced an amendment from Senator Amy Klobuchar that would freeze the new CFTC rulebook until 4 commissioners are confirmed. Galaxy Research puts 2026 passage at 50%. A coin flip is not a victory parade.
And the legal victories Grewal won are, in a strict sense, reversible. The SEC dropped its case; it did not lose a final judgment on the merits at the appellate level. The agency’s current posture is a policy choice by the current commission, formalized in an administrative framework that Chair Paul Atkins himself calls a bridge to legislation. A bridge built by one commission can be dismantled by the next. The entire argument for the CLARITY Act, made loudest by Coinbase itself, is that enforcement peace without statute is a ceasefire, not a treaty. By that logic, the company’s chief legal officer is departing during the ceasefire, with the treaty unsigned.
The rebuttal to the rebuttal is about comparative advantage. The remaining work is legislative, and Grewal was never the legislative arm. Shirzad runs policy. Fairshake and the industry coalition run the political money, with Coinbase reportedly among the largest corporate political donors of the 2026 cycle.
The final 3 weeks of the CLARITY fight will be decided by Senate floor mechanics, White House ethics negotiations, and 7 individual Democratic calculations, none of which a chief legal officer controls. What a chief legal officer controls, litigation posture against the SEC, is precisely the front that went quiet. On the battlefield where Grewal fought, the war really is over. On the battlefield where it continues, he was always a supporting actor.
What Coinbase is becoming without him
The company Grewal leaves behind is deliberately outgrowing the category he defended. Over the past year Coinbase has launched stock and ETF trading for all US users on a 24/5 schedule, partnered with Yahoo Finance to pipe research traffic into trades, agreed to acquire The Clearing Company to build regulated prediction markets, rolled out perpetual-style futures through its CFTC-regulated derivatives arm, secured a UK investment services authorization to add equities and derivatives for British users, and pushed deeper into stablecoin infrastructure with custom stablecoin issuance for businesses. Management now describes the goal as the everything exchange, one venue for crypto, equities, derivatives, and prediction markets.
That strategy quietly reframes the legal risk profile. An everything exchange answers to the SEC, the CFTC, the OCC, state regulators, and foreign authorities simultaneously, but it answers to them as a conventional, licensed financial institution, not as a defendant arguing about what a token is. The stakes of token classification shrink as the revenue mix diversifies away from spot crypto trading. In that world, the highest-value legal work is licensing, integration, and regulatory relationship management, which is the portfolio VanGrack and Abraham now split.
The stablecoin business shows the same migration from combat to competition. Coinbase’s economics lean heavily on its USDC arrangement with Circle, and the live threats there are commercial and regulatory-technical: the OCC’s February stablecoin rule extending the GENIUS Act yield ban to affiliates, bank lobby pressure on stablecoin yield that crypto.news has covered as a $6 trillion standoff, and the market share fight in which, as crypto.news reported, USDC has been beating Tether where trading volume actually lives. None of that is litigation. All of it is the next general counsel’s problem.
The risks Coinbase is accepting
A fair accounting has to name what the company gives up, because a transition this clean still carries costs.
The first is institutional memory in a crisis. Abraham has been at Coinbase for more than 5 years and, in Grewal’s words, fought in the trenches on the company’s most important legal battles, so this is not a cold start. But the specific muscle Grewal built, the willingness to sue a federal agency, to litigate discovery against a regulator, to take a public position and absorb the retaliation risk, is a temperament as much as a skill set.
Companies tend to hire for the war they just fought or the peace they expect. If the political environment flips after the 2026 midterms, or after 2028, and a future SEC revives the enforcement playbook against a Coinbase that now touches equities, derivatives, prediction markets, and banking-adjacent custody, the surface area for a hostile regulator is larger than it was in 2023, and the wartime commander will be at a startup.
The second is signaling risk in Washington during the most delicate month of the CLARITY fight. Grewal was one of the industry’s most credible witnesses precisely because he carried a federal judicial pedigree into rooms full of skeptical staffers. His departure does not remove Coinbase from the negotiation; Shirzad’s team remains fully engaged, but it does remove a specific voice at a moment when the bill’s opponents are arguing that the industry seeks impunity, not clarity. Senators reading the news can take it either way: as evidence the industry has matured past its combative phase, or as evidence that the people who understood the fight best are cashing out before the terms are final.
The third is concentration of the remaining legal risk in exactly the areas where Grewal’s successors are least tested. The OCC trust charter, the UK authorization, the Clearing Company acquisition review, and the state-by-state rollout of prediction markets are all licensing and approval processes where the counterpart is a regulator with discretion, not a plaintiff with a burden of proof. Grewal stays attached to the trust charter file, which mitigates the largest single item, but the portfolio as a whole now belongs to a legal team whose public track record is shorter than the ambitions it must clear.
None of these risks is disqualifying, and all of them are the ordinary price of succession. They are worth stating because the alternative narrative, that this transition is costless because the SEC fight ended, quietly assumes the regulatory weather of 2026 is permanent. Nothing in crypto’s history supports that assumption.
The precedent watchers should actually care about
Executive departures in crypto usually mean one of three things: scandal, disagreement, or completion. The filings, the send-off from regulators and industry figures, and the succession design all point to the third. But completion has its own information content, and two audiences should read it carefully.
For the industry, Grewal’s exit marks the formal end of the enforcement era as a career-defining battlefield. The generation of crypto lawyers who made their names fighting the SEC between 2020 and 2025 is dispersing into startups, advisory roles, and policy shops. The next generation will make its name on implementation: CFTC registration regimes, trust charters, MiCA passporting, bank partnerships. That is a less heroic practice, and a far larger one.
For CLARITY watchers, the exit is a mild but real confidence signal. Companies do not let their most famous legal asset walk during a live existential threat. Coinbase’s revealed preference, releasing Grewal to an advisory role while leaving the policy team untouched, says the company assigns low probability to a world where it needs a wartime chief legal officer again soon. It could be wrong. If the bill dies in August and a future administration revives enforcement, this July will look like the moment the industry demobilized early. If the bill passes, it will look like the moment the first company knew.
The calendar Grewal leaves behind is compressed enough to summarize in one paragraph. The week of July 13: the merged CLARITY text arrives, and its ethics language, or the absence of it, sets the tone for everything after. The week of July 20: the targeted floor window, contested by a defense spending bill and dependent on Majority Leader Thune scheduling time. August 7: the recess begins, and with it, by the estimate of Stifel, Galaxy, and Senator Lummis alike, the effective end of the 2026 window.
Somewhere in that stretch, Gallego, Alsobrooks, and at least 5 colleagues decide whether the ethics compromise on offer is defensible back home. Grewal’s last day as chief legal officer, July 31, lands in the middle of the count. If the Senate acts before he clears out his office, the timing that looked like a general leaving early will read instead as a handoff executed at the exact moment the mission is completed. Few executives get to choose their exit that precisely. Fewer still get the legislative calendar to cooperate.
Grewal himself put the stakes of his tenure in terms that will outlast the news cycle: the legal wins helped ensure crypto not only had a future in the United States, but could flourish. The first half of that claim is now hard to dispute. The second half is a bill sitting on the Senate calendar, waiting on a merged draft, an ethics compromise, and 7 votes. The general can leave because the outcome of his war is no longer in doubt. Whether the peace gets written into law is now, fittingly, out of the lawyers’ hands.
The planned rollout would let thousands of transportation contractors receive digital yen payments more frequently and quickly.
Momentum behind the US CLARITY Act appears to be fading as political and ethics concerns collide with a potential Senate push. Polymarket places the odds of the bill passing this year at about 40%, citing objections from Democratic lawmakers and raising the possibility that the ethics controversy could derail broader bipartisan work.
Beyond Washington, crypto’s second quarter showed a split: mainstream trading activity continued to contract, while prediction markets hit record volumes. At the same time, France moved to block Polymarket, underscoring how regulation is shaping where and how prediction markets can operate.
Key takeaways
- Polymarket estimates roughly a 40% chance that the CLARITY Act clears the Senate this year.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune said a vote will be held before Aug. 10, but ethics-related disputes are complicating Democratic support.
- CoinGecko’s Crypto Industry Report shows spot trading on the top 10 centralized exchanges fell from $2.7T in Q1 to $1.95T in Q2.
- Prediction markets bucked the trend, reaching $113.8B in notional volume in Q2, while France’s gambling regulator ordered Polymarket access blocked.
- Tokenized stocks recorded a new high at $2.3B in global market cap, led by Ethereum (34%) and BNB Chain (30%).
CLARITY Act vote faces an ethics-driven test
Several Democrats have signaled resistance to the CLARITY Act, according to Cointelegraph’s earlier reporting on Senate opposition from lawmakers including Chris Murphy, Jeff Merkley and Chris Van Hollen (see linked coverage). The concern centers on how the bill intersects with the politics of crypto advocacy and potential conflicts of interest.
Cointelegraph reports that Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated a crucial vote could happen as early as this week and would definitely take place before Aug. 10. But the political calendar alone may not be enough: Democrat Senator Elizabeth Warren is attempting to “spoil the vote” by spotlighting alleged links between President Donald Trump and crypto profits, Cointelegraph says.
Warren’s push builds on claims that Trump earned more than $1 billion from crypto last year, based on a 2025 disclosure. Cointelegraph also notes that this is why Senate Democrats may be unwilling to support the bill unless it includes language barring elected officials from promoting or issuing cryptocurrency.
“Ethics is the big elephant in the room.”
The quote is attributed to Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association and a former commissioner at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, in Cointelegraph’s linked coverage (see linked coverage).
“For my members and what we are advocating for on the Hill… look, whatever you decide on ethics, that’s really not our concern. That is politics. That’s Congress. That’s elected officials. But please don’t let it kill all the hard work that we put in the rest of the bill.”
For investors and builders, the practical risk is straightforward: even if the CLARITY Act advances on substantive market-structure provisions, passage could hinge on whether lawmakers accept ethics guardrails that satisfy Democratic conditions. Readers should watch whether negotiators offer a specific ban on officials’ crypto activity—or whether the bill’s schedule slips despite Thune’s stated timeline.
Q2 revealed a divergence: spot weakness, prediction market strength
Crypto markets were weak in Q2 overall, but prediction markets stood out as an exception. CoinGecko’s Crypto Industry Report, cited by Cointelegraph, shows spot trading volume across the top 10 centralized exchanges dropped from $2.7 trillion in Q1 to $1.95 trillion in Q2.
Derivatives also softened. CoinGecko data cited in the report indicates CEX perps volume declined 10% to $12.7 trillion, while the stablecoin market fell 1.6% to $305.1 billion.
Against that backdrop, prediction markets recorded their strongest quarter on record, reaching $113.8 billion in notional volume. Cointelegraph links that performance to Polymarket’s specific categories as well: the platform’s World Cup winner market has attracted more than $3.3 billion in trading volume, and contracts tied to the 2028 US presidential election rank among the platform’s largest markets, according to Polymarketscan data (polymarketscan).
France blocks Polymarket as regulation tightens
While prediction markets appear to be drawing record engagement, regulatory actions are limiting access. Cointelegraph reports that France’s National Gambling Authority ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket after concluding that prediction markets may fall under illegal gambling.
The report adds that Polymarket is blocked in 33 countries, while users can still often access via tools such as VPNs—an important reminder that enforcement patterns can vary and that compliance risk can shift as regulators act.
For market participants, the implication is that prediction-market growth may be constrained not only by liquidity and user demand, but by whether regulators treat the platform as a sportsbook, a financial product, or something in between. Upcoming legal clarity in France and elsewhere will likely influence where future liquidity concentrates.
Tokenized stocks reach $2.3B as traditional finance experiments continue
Tokenized equities also chalked up a milestone. Cointelegraph cites Token Terminal data saying global market capitalization of tokenized stocks rose to a record $2.3 billion on Wednesday.
Ethereum led with a 34% share, followed by BNB Chain at 30% and Solana at 23%, according to the same Token Terminal dataset shared in a post on X by Token Terminal (see post).
Growth was driven by issuer and exchange-specific activity. Cointelegraph points to Kraken exchange’s xStocks representing $507 million and Binance’s bStocks at $334 million, while Ondo Finance remained the largest tokenized stock issuer with $955 million in onchain equities, based on Token Terminal data (Token Terminal explorer).
The custody and infrastructure layer remains a key battleground for legitimacy and scaling. Cointelegraph notes that the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), described as custodian of $114 trillion in assets, launched a trial of tokenized securities in partnership with more than 40 financial firms.
Separately, Cointelegraph mentions Robinhood Chain’s ambition to lead in tokenized stocks, while also noting that its volume to date has been driven largely by memecoins—an observation that highlights how tokenized equity momentum may still depend on user acquisition beyond the “equities” narrative itself.
Regulatory alignment on stablecoins, compliance clock still ticking
US and UK authorities are seeking alignment on parts of tokenized finance. Cointelegraph reports that the US Department of the Treasury and HM Treasury in the UK issued four joint recommendations on digital assets (see linked coverage).
The task force recommends that regulators consider a private-sector-led group to test cross-border use cases for tokenized assets, while also asking US financial agencies and the Bank of England to identify shared regulatory approaches for tokenized assets.
On stablecoins, the statement says they “should be fully backed, on at least a one-to-one basis, by high-quality, liquid assets,” aligning with the structure in US law.
However, Cointelegraph also reports that, shortly afterward, it emerged that US regulatory agencies missed a Saturday rulemaking deadline for the GENIUS stablecoin act. Cointelegraph clarifies that missing a statutory deadline does not void the GENIUS Act, but could compress the time available for issuers to comply ahead of rules taking effect in January.
What to watch next
The next few weeks may determine whether the CLARITY Act can move past ethics-driven objections in the Senate, while the global pattern for prediction markets and tokenized assets will depend on how regulators translate policy into enforcement. Keep an eye on the CLARITY vote timetable, France’s follow-through on Polymarket restrictions, and how stablecoin compliance timelines evolve after the GENIUS rulemaking slip.
South Korea’s financial authorities investigated more than 40 cases of unfair trading, including market manipulation and fraudulent crypto trading, in the last two years.
According to an X post by Financial Services Commission Chair Lee Eog-won, 30 of them reported or referred to investigative agencies, identifying 25 suspects since the Virtual Asset User Protection Act took effect in July 2024.
Lee said the average unlawful gains were around 1.4 billion Korean won ($940,000).
“Today marks the second anniversary of the enactment of the ‘Virtual Asset User Protection Act…’ It was a meaningful time that brought the virtual asset market, which was outside the institutional framework at the time, into the fold of the law and created an opportunity to establish a user protection system for virtual assets,” said Lee.
The Virtual Asset User Protection Act is designed to protect users who buy and store crypto assets with virtual asset service providers.
VASPs are legally required to separate user deposits and virtual assets from their own corporate holdings, holding client deposits in banks.
The legislation also targets illicit activities such as insider trading, wash trading and market manipulation, enhancing the Financial Services Commission (FSC) authority to supervise and inspect VASPs.
“We will continue to enhance market surveillance investigation and monitoring systems based on AI, and proactively respond to high-risk areas,” Lee added.
CLARITY hinges on Trump’s ethics
Polymarket suggests the odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year are just 40%, after a raft of Democratic Senators, including Chris Murphy, Jeff Merkley and Chris Van Hollen, spoke out against the bill.
A crucial Senate vote could happen as early as this week, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune stating it will definitely be held before Aug. 10.
Democrat Senator Elizabeth Warren is trying to spoil the vote by highlighting how much money President Trump has extracted from the industry. She demanded Trump voluntarily release his crypto earnings for this year, after his 2025 disclosure, showed he earned more than a billion dollars from crypto last year. The controversy means that Senate Democrats are unlikely to support the bill without a provision banning elected officials promoting or issuing cryptocurrency.
Summer Mersinger, the CEO of the Blockchain Association and a former commissioner at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said: “Ethics is the big elephant in the room.”
“For my members and what we are advocating for on the Hill… look, whatever you decide on ethics, that’s really not our concern. That is politics. That’s Congress. That’s elected officials. But please don’t let it kill all the hard work that we put in the rest of the bill.”
Source: Polymarket
Prediction markets see record Q2 volume, France blocks Polmarket
Crypto markets continued to flounder in the second quarter, with the notable exception of prediction markets.
Spot trading volume across the top 10 centralized exchanges (CEXs) fell from $2.7 trillion in the first quarter to just $1.95 trillion in the second, according to CoinGecko’s latest Crypto Industry Report.
CEX perps volume also declined 10% to $12.7 trillion, while the stablecoin market slipped 1.6% to $305.1 billion. In contrast, prediction markets recorded their strongest quarter on record with $113.8 billion in notional volume.
Polymarket’s World Cup winner market alone has attracted more than $3.3 billion in trading volume, while contracts tied to the 2028 US presidential election rank among the platform’s largest markets, according to Polymarketscan data.
Meanwhile, France’s National Gambling Authority has just ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket as it considers prediction markets to be illegal gambling.
Polymarket is blocked in 33 countries… unless you have a VPN of course.
Strategy became a symbol of the dot-com crash: Could history repeat?
Senate agrees SBF should serve his time as FTX distributes another $900M
The US Senate has adopted a resolution opposing executive clemency for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.
The measure cannot block a presidential pardon but reflects bipartisan Senate opposition.
Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in federal prison in March 2024 after being convicted of fraud and conspiracy charges linked to FTX’s collapse in 2022.
Speculation about a possible presidential pardon grew after Bankman-Fried applied for clemency from Trump in June 2026.
On Friday, the FTX Recovery Trust said it would distribute about $900 million to creditors in the fifth round of repayments. The trust has now paid out about $10 billion since the company filed for bankruptcy.
Tokenized stocks hit record $2.3B
The global market capitalization of tokenized stocks rose to a record $2.3 billion on Wednesday, as more investors sought exposure to blockchain-based equity products.
The Ethereum network boasted the largest market share, at 34%, followed by BNB Chain with 30% and the Solana network with 23%, data aggregator Token Terminal shared in a Wednesday X post.
The largest increase came from Kraken exchange’s xStocks, which accounted for $507 million worth of tokenized stocks and Binance’s bStocks, with $334 million. Ondo Finance remained the largest tokenized stock issuer with $955 million in onchain equities, according to Token Terminal data.
The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, which is the custodian of $114 trillion in assets, last week launched a trial of tokenized securities in partnership with more than 40 financial firms.
Robinhood Chain also aims to become a leader in tokenized stocks, however its volume to date is largely driven by memecoins.
Is Robinhood Chain’s success bullish or bearish for ETH the asset?
US and UK to align stablecoin rules, but Genius Act rules are TBA
The US Department of the Treasury and HM Treasury in the UK have issued four joint recommendations on digital assets.
The task force recommended that authorities consider a private-sector-led group focused on “testing of cross-border use cases for tokenized assets” and that financial agencies in the US and the Bank of England identify shared approaches on the regulation of tokenized assets.
The statement said that stablecoins “should be fully backed, on at least a one-to-one basis, by high-quality, liquid assets,” aligning with the US law.
Ironically, a few days later it emerged the US regulatory agencies had all missed Saturday’s rulemaking deadline for the GENIUS stablecoin act. Missing the statutory deadline does not invalidate the GENIUS Act, but will result in issuers having less time to comply before the rules go into effect in January.
Source: ZachXBT (but DYOR)
Winners and Losers
At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $64,620, Ether (ETH) at $1,868 and XRP (XRP) is at $1.09. The total market cap is at $2.21 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.
Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin winners of the week are Pump.fun (PUMP) which gained 36%, Venice Token (VVV) on 10%, and Litecoin (LTC) which is up 7%.
The top three altcoin losers of the week are DeXe (DEXE) after it lost 27%, Lighter (LIT) which was down 17%, and Worldcoin (WRLD) which fell 14%.
Prediction of the Week
Bitcoin gets new $80K August target
Bitcoin (BTC) may hit up to $80,000 by August if it clears nearby resistance, a new prediction says. A macro tide could be the spark to ignite the next move higher.
Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe said earlier this week that BTC/USD has successfully defended “crucial” support.
“It’s holding the crucial level at $61,000 and flipping important MAs for support, indicating that there’s more momentum on the horizon,” he wrote, referring to moving average trend lines.
“I’m expecting to see a rally to $68,000 in the next 1-2 weeks, followed by a continuation towards $75,000-80,000 in August.”
Not everyone agreed with the analysis, including nichoxbt who thinks the price is heading back under $60,000.
Source: Nichoxbt
Top FUD of the Week
Consensys unknowingly outsourced developer work to North Korean
Blockchain company Consensys accidentally used a software developer linked to North Korea, who had access to some of its systems for a month.
First reported on Friday by Drop Site, Consensys earlier this year took on a software developer via a “reputable third party service provider” who was later discovered to have ties to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
The move caused the Metamask developer to temporarily suspend product releases, but said an investigation has “confirmed there was no misappropriation of assets or data, no malicious code deployed, and no impact to user safety and security.”
Kaspersky identifies malware framework targeting crypto investors
Cybersecurity company Kaspersky said a newly identified malware framework is targeting cryptocurrency investors.
Dubbed “OkoBot,” the malware initiates an infection chain that starts with social engineering tactics such as ClickFix, which tricks users into running malicious commands, or trojanized GitHub apps that deliver a backdoor to infected devices, the cybersecurity company wrote in a Wednesday report.
A separate malware campaign seeks to infiltrate the devices of Web3 developers via fake LinkedIn recruitment opportunities, according to SlowMist.
Attackers contact blockchain devs via LinkedIn, posing as recruiters. They then send fake GitHub repositories to victims, claiming they contain code that needs to be assessed before the interview, the security company said in a Saturday report.
Base’s social bet left it trailing in prediction markets and perps: Pollak
Base creator Jesse Pollak says he is stepping back from leading the Base App after admitting he made a “wrong bet” on social, leaving the chain to fall behind on prediction markets and perpetual futures.
In a post to X on Wednesday, Pollak said he had bet that creator, content and messaging apps would drive adoption, but instead the market “disintegrated completely.”
Pollak said he now realized financial applications are the way forward for the network, with a focus on trading, payments and AI agents.
The Base App will now return to Coinbase, and will be overseen by crypto influencer and trader Jordan Fish, better known on X as “Cobie.”
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Cointelegraph publishes long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Content published in here does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence.
Oil just broke $90. Brent crude climbed more than 3% on Monday to its highest level since mid-June, as the US-Iran war chokes shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The US hit Iran for an eighth straight night over the weekend. Washington has blockaded Iranian ports, and Tehran says the strait is closed to unauthorized ships.
Why the Oil Price Is Climbing So Fast
Brent traded near $91.40 early Monday, up 3.2%, according to Trading Economics data. That caps a 14% jump last week. Crude has now rebounded nearly 30% from its early-July low near $71.
The rally has a clear trigger. A June 17 truce between Washington and Tehran had reopened the strait, and oil slid from above $107 in May to $71.
US President Donald Trump ended that truce on July 8. The war premium came right back.
The strait carries about a fifth of the world’s oil, and traffic is now thin. Kuwait said Iranian strikes hit a power and water plant twice in two days, Al Jazeera reported.
The damage is reaching US wallets too. BeInCrypto recently showed how the Hormuz oil shock is undoing June’s drop in inflation.
Why the Fed May Hike Instead of Cut
Bonds fell as oil jumped. The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.55%, close to a two-month high.
Here is the problem. US prices fell 0.4% in June, the biggest monthly drop since April 2020, because energy got 5.7% cheaper, BLS data shows. Oil at $90 runs that math in reverse.
The Federal Reserve is already leaning hawkish. New Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady in June, and nine of his 18 colleagues see higher rates this year. At a central-bank forum in Portugal on July 1, Warsh kept it short.
“Prices are too high,” Kevin Warsh stated.
Traders noticed. Hike odds for the July 28 to 29 meeting doubled to 36% from 18% in early July. As of this writing, it was 14%, per CME FedWatch data, still elevated.
Silver already slumped as the oil shock lifted Fed hike bets. Economists also expect an ECB rate hike in September.
What This Means for Bitcoin
None of this helps crypto. High rates hurt risk assets, and Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to hold its recovery, with sellers fading every bounce, BeInCrypto analysis shows.
The war itself has not helped either. A BeInCrypto study of the first phase, from February 28 to June 17, found stocks beat BTC as the strongest war hedge.
Now all eyes turn to July 28 and 29. If oil holds above $90, a Fed hike could move from tail risk to base case.
The post Oil Price Tops $90 as Iran War Escalates: What It Means for Crypto appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Saylor’s Strategy Strengthens Liquidity Position but Long-Term Bitcoin Plan Still Faces Scrutiny
American business intelligence firm Strategy has bolstered its financial position by addressing liquidity concerns raised earlier this year. In a July 14 follow-up, the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant said the company’s new capital framework has eased short-term financial pressure. The firm, however, noted that questions remain about Strategy’s long-term Bitcoin strategy.
The update follows CryptoQuant’s June 23 assessment, which warned that Strategy’s cash reserves were shrinking even as Bitcoin purchases continued. At the time, analysts estimated the company had enough liquidity to cover preferred dividend obligations for only about 14 months without additional funding.
Strategy Rolls Out New Capital Framework
To address those concerns, Strategy introduced its Digital Credit Capital Framework on June 29 to strengthen its financial flexibility. The plan established a board-approved U.S. dollar reserve policy that initially targeted about $2.55 billion before later raising the goal to roughly $3 billion.
The framework also raised the STRC dividend rate to 12% and approved up to $1 billion each for preferred securities issuance and MSTR share repurchases. It also introduced a Bitcoin Monetization Program, allowing the company to sell up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to support reserves and funding needs.
The on-chain analytics firm said the measures are closely aligned with recommendations made in its earlier report. Strategy also paused additional Bitcoin purchases and sold 3,588 BTC worth about $216 million between June 29 and July 5. It further raised $466.7 million through its MSTR at-the-market share offering.
As a result, cash reserves rose from roughly $1.44 billion to about $3 billion, extending estimated dividend coverage to around 29 months. During the same period, Strategy maintained its Bitcoin holdings at approximately 843,775 BTC by suspending further accumulation.
Questions Over Future Bitcoin Management Remain
According to CryptoQuant, the market has responded positively to the stronger liquidity position, although some uncertainty remains. STRC recovered from a June low near $75 to around $88 but continued trading below its stated value of $100.
Even so, analysts said the framework does not explain when Bitcoin purchases could resume after the recent pause. They also said the Bitcoin Monetization Program prioritizes dividends, reserves, and share repurchases without defining a clear Bitcoin trading strategy.
The post Saylor’s Strategy Strengthens Liquidity Position but Long-Term Bitcoin Plan Still Faces Scrutiny appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Kraken Financial’s Federal Reserve master account is still not live more than four months after approval, bank CEO Brian Mathena told Wyoming lawmakers last week.
In March, the Wyoming-chartered bank became the first crypto firm ever to win one. Winning was hard. Switching it on is proving even harder.
Why the Kraken Fed Master Account Is Not Live Yet
A master account is a bank’s own account at the Fed. It lets a firm move US dollars without a middleman bank. That is why crypto firms want one so badly.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City approved Kraken’s account on March 4. That made Kraken the first crypto firm plugged directly into the Fed. The bank had waited since October 2020.
Yet the account sits idle. Mathena told Wyoming’s blockchain select committee that the bank is still switching it on.
“Obviously with the uncertainty around the account, we’re now playing a bit of catch up, trying to get the account operationalized and to expand our deposit product and be able to more fully leverage the Fed master account.”
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Kraken never promised a fast launch. Its March announcement described a phased rollout, starting with big institutional clients. Meanwhile, customer wires still run through a middleman. Kraken’s own support pages list Dart Bank as its US dollar wire provider.
The account itself is unusual. The Kansas City Fed approved it for one year only, with undisclosed limits “tailored” to Kraken’s risks. Even Congress wants answers. Representative Maxine Waters pressed Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid in March.
Her letter notes the term “limited purpose account” appears nowhere in law or Fed guidelines. She also asks whether Kraken can use the Fed’s ACH network or earn interest on its balances.
The prize is clear, however. A live account would let Kraken settle dollars directly on Fedwire, the Fed’s big-money transfer system. The timing matters too, as Kraken advances its confidential IPO filing.
Tier 3 Fed Access Remains Nearly Impossible
Kraken applied as a Tier 3 firm. That is the Fed’s bucket for state-chartered banks with no federal insurance and no federal watchdog. These applicants almost never win.
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman put it bluntly at an American Bankers Association event in March.
“That third level… was a little bit like, I like to say ‘unobtainium,’ right, you just can’t qualify, it’s not, it doesn’t work.”
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The numbers back her up. Just three of 53 Tier 3 or unclassified applicants have ever won approval, per fintech analyst Jason Mikula.
The other two are a Puerto Rico cooperative and banknote specialist Numisma Bank. Neither touches crypto.
Custodia Bank shows the dark side of those odds. The fellow Wyoming bank applied in October 2020, the same month as Kraken. The Fed said no in January 2023. On July 10, Custodia asked the Supreme Court to step in, calling the denial a “death sentence.”
More delays may follow. Banking trade groups warned that Kraken’s approval came before the Fed finished writing its rules. The Fed then asked Reserve Banks to pause all Tier 3 decisions.
Instead, it is finalizing a payment account proposal for non-banks. Comments close on July 27, and Governor Christopher Waller expects final rules only by year-end.
For now, Kraken holds a first-of-its-kind account it cannot fully use. Whether the one-year pilot goes live before the new rules land remains an open question.
The answer may shape how the Fed treats Ripple’s pending application and everyone else waiting in line.
The post Kraken Won Historic Fed Approval. So Why Isn’t Its Master Account Live Yet? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le says Wall Street’s largest banks are locked in a tight race for second place on the company’s Bitcoin Banking Adoption Index.
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citi each score within three points of one another. Fidelity, however, still holds a commanding lead.
Fidelity’s Lead Sets the Bitcoin Banking Adoption Index Bar
The Bitcoin Banking Adoption Index grades 25 major banks on Bitcoin (BTC) trading, custody, and product depth.
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, published the initial 32% score, drawing on public data through July 10.
Fidelity topped the list at 71%, built on Fidelity Digital Assets, the custody arm it launched back in 2018.
BNY follows at 46%, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trails narrowly at 45%. Historically, few banks matched Fidelity’s early crypto custody bet.
Bitcoin traded near $64,539 on Sunday, up about 1% over 24 hours. The index, therefore, measures structural adoption rather than short-term price swings.
Goldman, JPMorgan, and Citi Battle for Second
JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup each land at 43%, separated from Goldman by just two points. Record bank earnings this quarter show JPMorgan and Goldman trading desks already profiting from crypto-adjacent activity.
Several rivals are also chasing tokenization efforts underway across the sector, where more than 15 banks now compete to move assets on-chain.
That shift, in contrast, sidesteps Bitcoin entirely and could reshape future index gains.
Vanguard illustrates the gap further. The asset manager only recently began planning its own crypto strategy, years after Fidelity built out its custody business. Meanwhile, smaller regional lenders have barely started.
Major-bank Bitcoin adoption is accelerating, but still early: 32% overall as measured by the index.
Michael Saylor, MircroStrategy’s executive chairman, posted that assessment on X alongside the index’s July 13 debut.
New Launches Could Reshuffle the Bitcoin Banking Adoption Index
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citi are each developing several crypto initiatives slated for release within the current year. That could include new exchange-traded products, custody expansions, or tokenization tools already in development.
Le expects these launches to bring significantly more clarity to the sector by year-end.
MicroStrategy, holder of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, has a stake in that outcome. Saylor’s own case for corporate Bitcoin adoption echoes the same expectation of accelerating bank participation.
Whether Goldman or JPMorgan ultimately claims outright second place may depend on which products actually ship before December arrives.
The post MicroStrategy CEO: Wall Street’s Biggest Banks are Locked in a Tight Bitcoin Race appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Khing Oei, a former Goldman Sachs credit investor, says the market has Strategy’s STRC preferred stock priced wrong. His math says it is worth about $96. It trades near $85.
Oei spent 25 years valuing risky debt at Goldman Sachs and hedge funds. He shared his STRC model in a recent lengthy discussion.
Why the 14% Yield on MicroStrategy’s STRC Misleads
STRC pays a 12% dividend. Divide that by today’s discounted price and you get a yield above 14%. That number is everywhere. Oei says it is wrong.
Here is the problem. That math assumes STRC pays out forever, no matter what. STRC promises no such thing. It never matures and never has to repay its $100 face value, known as par. It pays only while MicroStrategy can afford it.
The shares crashed 25% below par during June’s Bitcoin selloff. That is what made the yield look so juicy.
“That experience leaves you with a simple instinct: never value a stream by dividing this year’s coupon by today’s price,” Oei wrote in his analysis.
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So he values STRC like a bond. Count the cash it will actually pay out, and nothing more. Strategy’s dashboard showed 843,775 Bitcoin (BTC) worth $54 billion, plus $3 billion in cash. Debt and senior preferred shares claim $8 billion of that first. STRC’s $10.5 billion comes next.
29 Years of Dividends Even if Bitcoin Never Rises
Strip out the senior claims and $50.2 billion backs the preferred shares. The dividend bill runs $1.73 billion a year.
That produces two striking numbers. Bitcoin only needs to grow 3.4% a year and the dividends never stop. If Bitcoin stays flat forever, the money still lasts 29 years.
Value those 29 years of payments at a 12% discount rate and STRC is worth $96.30. BeInCrypto checked the math. It holds.
The market pays $85.29. That price only buys 17 years of dividends. Oei thinks that is too gloomy, since STRF, the safer Strategy share above STRC, yields just 10.4%.
That gap between $85 and $96 is the 13% mispricing. It carries a sharp implication. If Oei is right, buyers collect the 14% yield while the price climbs toward fair value. If the market is right, the discount is a warning that the dividend may one day stop.
Some buyers seem to agree with Oei. A BitcoinTreasuries survey found over half of holders bought the dip below par.
The Road Back to $100
Bitcoin’s price does most of the work. Oei’s table puts STRC back at $100 if Bitcoin reaches $80,000. At $40,000, it drops to $58.
MicroStrategy holds levers too. STRC listed in July 2025 at $90 with a 9% dividend. The board has raised the rate again and again, now 12%, to pull the price toward par.
Cash helps as well. Each $1 billion raised and held in reserve adds about four points, Oei estimates. A buyback adds five, since Strategy would pay $85 for something he values at $96.
The mispricing itself becomes the company’s cheapest tool. The growing cash pile fits what one research desk called a Bitcoin winter pivot.
One caveat applies. Oei runs Treasury, a European Bitcoin treasury firm, so he benefits when these shares are taken seriously. Skeptics also remain. Economist Peter Schiff just predicted a crash toward $20,000, and others ask who ultimately pays if Strategy’s $64 billion bet unwinds.
The question is now a simple one. Does a company with $57 billion in assets deserve this much doubt over a $1.73 billion dividend bill? Bitcoin’s next move will go a long way toward answering it.
The post Ex-Goldman Credit Veteran Says Markets May Be Mispricing MicroStrategy’s STRC by 13% appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says Bitcoin did not live up to Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision of everyday digital money. It became digital gold instead. Stablecoins took over the payments job, he argues.
Bitcoin (BTC) sits near $64,523, down about 45% from its October 2025 peak of $126,080. Stablecoins are moving the other way, with supply near record highs.
Armstrong Rethinks Bitcoin’s Original Role
Armstrong made the call in an interview with Zerodha co-founder Nikhil Kamath on the People by WTF podcast. Kamath is a self-declared crypto skeptic. He asked the Coinbase boss a simple question. Does Bitcoin still do what it was built for?
“You’re right, I think it’s fair to say at this point that Bitcoin has succeeded as a store of value, and I don’t think it has become a medium of exchange,” Armstrong responded.
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Why Bitcoin Drifted From Satoshi’s Vision
Nakamoto’s 2008 whitepaper promised cash that moves online without banks. Bitcoin’s first block even carried a 2009 headline about UK bank bailouts. That was the mission.
Seventeen years on, Armstrong says the payments dream never landed. Fixes came and went.
“There’s people who have tried to make that happen with the Lightning Network, was an optimisation layer on top of Bitcoin, but it never really took off.”
The bigger problem sits in Bitcoin’s own design. Supply is capped, so holders hoard it like gold.
Armstrong said “people think it’s going to be worth more in the future, so they don’t really want to spend it right now.” Volatility makes it worse, he added.
Stablecoins Take Over the Payments Role
Stablecoins filled the gap. These dollar-backed tokens now do the boring job of money, even as banks defend their old rails.
“So we’ve actually seen massive growth of stablecoins running on blockchains. Fiat-backed stablecoins as the medium of exchange and Bitcoin has remained the store value as digital gold.”
The numbers agree. DefiLlama data shows stablecoin supply near $310 billion. Tether’s USDT holds $184 billion, and Circle’s USDC adds $73 billion.
Armstrong also credits the GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025, for making the tokens legal and trusted in the US. Much of that activity now runs on Base and Solana.
Still, Armstrong sees no failure here. In his view, Bitcoin simply found a different job.
“I think the Bitcoin chain is okay with that. They’re not intending it to be used for high volume payments. They’re digital gold.”
The post Brian Armstrong Admits Bitcoin Didn’t Deliver Satoshi’s Vision, Something Else Did appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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