A new academic study says XRP price moves still depend heavily on Wall Street signals. 

The research found that digital assets have not yet become separate safe havens from traditional finance.

The paper was published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management in April 2026. It reviewed daily market data from 2018 to early 2026 and studied how information moved across asset classes.

Stocks and bonds lead market direction

Researchers at Yildiz Technical University studied seven major financial segments. These included top cryptocurrencies, G10 stock indices, tech stocks, commodities, government bond yields and sovereign risk measures.

The study found that G10 stock markets, 10-year government bond yields and five-year credit default swaps often send the strongest signals. Cryptocurrencies such as XRP mostly receive those signals rather than lead them.

Moreover, the findings challenge the idea that XRP and other crypto assets move independently from stocks and bonds. The paper said crypto portfolios remain closely linked to traditional markets.

Researchers described this as “information flow” between markets. In simple terms, price pressure from stocks, bonds and risk indicators often reaches crypto before crypto sends signals back to those markets.

Crises can change market order

The study also found that market leadership can shift during sudden crisis periods. In such moments, sovereign risk tools such as credit default swaps can become stronger drivers of stock and crypto prices.

The researchers used Transfer Entropy and Independent Component Analysis to filter market noise and track cleaner links between assets. Their findings suggest that XRP price action still follows broader financial conditions, even as crypto adoption grows.

A new academic working paper says a small group of Polymarket users drives much of the platform’s price discovery. 

The study reviewed every Polymarket transaction from 2023 to 2025. The paper came from researchers at London Business School and Yale. It covered 1.72 million accounts, 210,322 markets, and about $13.76 billion in trading volume.

The researchers found that only 3.14% of accounts qualified as “skilled winners.” These traders had order flows that predicted short-term price moves and final market outcomes.

The paper said skilled traders and market makers captured more than 30% of all gains. Together, they made up less than 3.5% of all accounts on the prediction market platform.

Most losing accounts fund the gains

The study said raw profits did not always prove skill. Researchers tested trader records by randomly changing buy and sell directions 10,000 times across past trades.

The test found that only 12% of top earners overlapped with the skilled group. About 60% of “lucky winners” later moved into losses when tested on another sample of events.

The paper also said 67% of accounts marked as unlucky or unskilled losers absorbed the platform’s total losses. That claim challenges the wider view that prediction markets mainly reflect broad crowd wisdom.

Insider activity remains under review

The researchers also reviewed suspected insider trading activity. They flagged 1,950 accounts that opened shortly before one event and then went inactive after that event ended.

Those accounts moved prices 7 to 12 times more per dollar than skilled traders. However, the paper said this activity was too focused on separate events to explain overall market accuracy.

The paper comes as prediction markets face more attention from regulators and lawmakers. Polymarket is also reportedly in talks to raise $400 million at a $15 billion valuation.

The authors said Polymarket’s accuracy reflects “the wisdom of an informed minority, not the wisdom of the crowd.” Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan previously described the platform as “the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now.”

Western Union plans to launch its USDPT stablecoin next month as part of a wider move into digital assets. 

The company said the token is in its final stage of readiness after months of preparation.

CEO Devin McGranahan said during the firm’s first-quarter earnings call that Western Union has moved past the planning stage. He said, “It is no longer a question of if Western Union will be active in digital assets; it is now how fast we can scale.”

USDPT will support settlement, not retail users

USDPT will be a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin built on Solana and issued by Anchorage Digital Bank. Western Union first announced the stablecoin in October as part of its plan to modernize money movement.

McGranahan said USDPT will not launch as a direct consumer-facing stablecoin. Instead, the company plans to use it as an alternative settlement tool with agents, including in select countries and core payment corridors.

Additionally, Western Union is also launching its Digital Asset Network, known as DAN. The platform will connect crypto wallets with Western Union’s retail and agent network, helping users convert digital assets into local currency.

The company said the first DAN partner is expected to go live this week. McGranahan said, “Millions of wallet users will be able to move from digital assets into local currency using Western Union’s retail network.”

Stable Card planned for global consumers

Western Union also plans to launch a U.S. dollar Stable Card later this year. The card will allow users to hold value in stablecoins and spend across dozens of markets.

The company said the product may serve customers in inflation-sensitive markets who want dollar-denominated value for daily use. McGranahan added that Western Union now aims to scale adoption and embed digital assets into its core money movement platform.

Aave Labs has proposed that the decentralized autonomous organization behind Arbitrum unfreeze $73.5 million in Ether tied to the Kelp DAO attack and to direct those funds to “DeFi United,” a fund aimed at restoring rsETH and compensating its holders.

Last week, the Arbitrum Security Council moved to freeze 30,765 Ether (ETH) held in a wallet connected to the $293 million Kelp exploit. 

In a proposal posted Saturday on the Arbitrum governance forum, Aave Labs said directing those funds to a planned remediation effort would “restore normal conditions for Arbitrum users” and the wider ecosystem and that the Ether on Arbitrum “represents a material contribution” toward restoring the Kelp DAO restaked ETH (rsETH) token.

The submission was made with the support of Kelp DAO, LayerZero, Ether.fi and Compound, four of the several crypto protocols affected by the hack.

DeFi United sees $21 million in contributions

The proposal comes days after Aave Labs and others set up the “DeFi United” on Friday in an effort to fully restore the backing of rsETH.

Dune Analytics data shows that about $21 million in contributions has already been made, with contributions including those from Aave Labs CEO Stani Kulechov, Aave Labs head of contracts Emilio Frangella, Kelp DAO, Golem Foundation, Web3 development platform BGD Labs and Babylon, a Bitcoin-native DeFi protocol.

Another $215 million has been pledged by Arbitrum, Mantle, Ether.fi and Lido to assist the recovery effort, which are subject to governance votes.

LayerZero, Ethena, Ink Foundation and Frax Finance have also signaled their intention to help.

Source: Aave

Aave was hit hard by the Kelp DAO exploit, with its total value locked falling nearly $12 billion in a week after the hacker put the stolen rsETH tokens up as collateral on its lending platform to borrow wrapped Ether, leaving more than $190 million in bad debt and triggering a wave of withdrawals. 

Aave sets a seven-week timeline for the recovery plan

In the Arbitrum proposal, Aave Labs said a full recovery would not only restore rsETH’s backing but also normalize conditions for its holders, liquidity providers and borrowers on Arbitrum and across the broader DeFi ecosystem.

Related: Coinbase says capital access beats income in wealth creation

Even a “partial recovery would still meaningfully reduce the shortfall,” Aave Labs added.

Aave Labs has specifically asked for the 30,765 Ether to be sent to a recovery address controlled by Aave, Kelp DAO and blockchain security platform Certora. 

Aave Labs said it expects the effort to restore rsETH and compensate its holders to take about 49 days and that it would return the funds if the recovery effort falls through.

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Aave Labs has proposed that Arbitrum’s decentralized autonomous organization unfreeze 30,765 Ether — roughly $73.5 million in value at current prices — tied to the Kelp DAO attack and redirect those funds to a remediation vehicle named DeFi United. The Ether in question sits in a wallet linked to the exploited Kelp platform, and last week the Arbitrum Security Council moved to freeze the asset as investigators assessed the breach.

In a governance proposal posted on Saturday, Aave Labs argued that releasing the frozen Ether to DeFi United would “restore normal conditions for Arbitrum users” and the broader ecosystem, noting that rsETH’s backing represents a meaningful contribution toward stabilizing the stablecoin’s value after the incident.

The submission is supported by Kelp DAO, LayerZero, Ether.fi and Compound, among other protocols affected by the hack.

DeFi United contributions reach $21 million

Days after DeFi United’s launch, data from Dune Analytics shows roughly $21 million in commitments has already been pledged. Among the early contributors are Aave Labs chief executive Stani Kulechov, Aave Labs head of contracts Emilio Frangella, Kelp DAO, the Golem Foundation, Web3 development outfit BGD Labs, and Babylon, a Bitcoin-native DeFi project.

The effort to pool resources for rsETH restoration has drawn broad participation from across the DeFi and Layer-2 ecosystems, signaling a coordinated response to the incident that dented trust in the Arbitrum environment.

Broad pledge wave extends beyond DeFi United

In parallel with DeFi United’s fundraising, Arbitrum, Mantle, Ether.fi and Lido have committed an additional $215 million to support the rsETH recovery effort. These pledges are counted as contingent on governance approvals, underscoring the role of token holders in determining how resources are allocated in response to the attack.

Support has continued to surface from other major players in the ecosystem, including LayerZero, Ethena, Ink Foundation and Frax Finance, all signaling willingness to contribute to the remediation push as governance votes move forward.

Overall, the coordinated response reflects a broader industry push to stabilize rsETH and reassure users after the vulnerability was exploited and collateral was rehypothecated across DeFi protocols.

Recovery plan timeline and governance safeguards

Aave Labs frames the proposal as a path to not only restore rsETH’s backing but also to normalize conditions for rsETH holders, liquidity providers and borrowers on Arbitrum and across the DeFi stack. The team describes a recovery window of about 49 days (roughly seven weeks) and notes that even a partial recovery would meaningfully reduce the shortfall.

Crucially, the plan calls for the 30,765 Ether to be transmitted to a recovery address controlled by a coalition of actors—Aave, Kelp DAO and the Certora security platform—to manage the process and oversee the restoration work. Aave also indicated that funds would be returned if the remediation effort does not materialize as planned, placing governance safeguards at the center of the operation.

The governance process surrounding these proposals remains pivotal. While DeFi United and the broader pledges push toward an accelerated remediation, final approvals hinge on Arbitrum’s community votes, which will determine whether the funds flow into the recovery pipeline and how oversight is structured during the process.

The unfolding efforts come amid a difficult period for Arbitrum’s ecosystem, with the Kelp incident highlighting the fragility of cross-chain finance and the interdependence of DeFi protocols. As the community weighs the proposal and the wider commitments, observers will be watching not only for the timeline’s adherence but also for how effectively the recovery architecture can restore confidence in rsETH and the health of Arbitrum’s DeFi liquidity.

Watch next as Arbitrum’s governance process progresses, and as DeFi United’s fundraising translates into operational steps for rsETH restoration. The outcome will influence expectations for coordinated, multi-party responses to security incidents and may set a precedent for how similar crises are handled across Layer-2 ecosystems.