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Prediction markets are the new secret weapon for Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) growth

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Prediction markets are the new secret weapon for Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) growth

Prediction markets are gaining traction as a new growth area for Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD), as investors look beyond a weak first quarter for crypto trading and focus on future products, according to Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal.

El-Assal said “investors are increasingly treating the quarterly print as backward-looking,” with attention shifting to “forward-looking demand trends and the product roadmap,” including newer offerings such as prediction markets.

Both companies are expected to report softer results for the first quarter of 2026 after a pullback in crypto prices and trading activity. Bitcoin and ether (ETH) fell about 23% and 29% in the quarter, weighing on volumes across exchanges. Trading activity also slowed as the quarter progressed, with Coinbase volumes declining from roughly $66 billion in January to $54 billion in March, based on third-party data.

Cantor estimates Coinbase’s consumer and institutional trading volumes at $35 billion and $167 billion, both below Wall Street expectations. The firm also projects exchange revenue below consensus. Still, El-Assal maintained an “overweight” rating on the stock and raised his price target to $250, citing improving sentiment and longer-term growth drivers.

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Robinhood faces similar near-term pressure. The analyst expects a sequential decline in trading volumes due to softer market conditions, along with a hit to net interest revenue from lower rates. But the company’s business model offers some cushion. Higher volatility can lift trading margins, and Cantor expects stronger yields in equities and options to partly offset weaker activity.

At the same time, crypto revenue quality may come under pressure. El-Assal noted the platform’s “tiered pricing structure … earns lower yields on large active traders … and higher yields on marginal traders,” with the latter group pulling back during volatility.

Despite these headwinds, both stocks have rallied in recent weeks. Coinbase shares are up about 18% quarter-to-date, while Robinhood has climbed roughly 40% in April from late-March lows, helped by improving risk sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions.

The focus now is on what comes next. For Coinbase, investors are watching regulatory developments and new business lines. The company’s prediction markets offering, launched this year, “continues to attract meaningful interest,” El-Assal said.

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Robinhood is also leaning into prediction markets alongside other initiatives such as tokenization and private market access. The analyst said these efforts, along with regulatory changes like updates to pattern day trading rules, could help drive future growth.

Cantor maintained an “overweight” rating on Robinhood and raised its price target to $110.

The broader view, according to El-Assal, is that while current trading trends remain tied to crypto price cycles, the next phase of growth will depend more on product expansion and new use cases.

Later on Tuesday, the New York Attorney General’s office filed a lawsuit against Coinbase and fellow crypto exchange Gemini over their prediction market offerings, alleging that the products were actually gambling products and therefore in violation of state regulations.

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Whether prediction markets — specifically, sports-related prediction markets — are gambling products are not is currently a topic of debate in both state and federal courts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has argued that prediction markets are swaps, and therefore properly regulated by that agency at the federal level. States have argued that at least the sports-related contracts are not swaps, and should be licensed and overseen by state regulators. This question is likely to end up before the U.S. Supreme Court.

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Crypto World

Texas AG Sues ActBlue for Fraud

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Texas AG Sues ActBlue for Fraud

US election news from Texas arrived Monday as Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit in Tarrant County district court against ActBlue, the Democratic fundraising platform, alleging it violated the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act by continuing to accept gift card donations it had publicly claimed to ban.

Summary

  • Texas investigators made three donations to ActBlue in February 2026 using false identities and prepaid gift cards and successfully reached the DNC and two Texas officials’ campaign accounts, directly contradicting ActBlue’s representations to Congress.
  • The lawsuit seeks a permanent injunction barring ActBlue from accepting gift card and prepaid debit card donations, $10,000 in civil penalties per violation, and attorneys’ fees on claims totaling more than $1 million.
  • ActBlue called the suit “a thinly veiled attempt to distract from Ken Paxton’s numerous legal and ethical issues ahead of next month’s runoff” against Senator John Cornyn.

US election news sharpened Monday around campaign finance integrity as Paxton accused ActBlue of deceiving Congress and the public about its safeguards against fraudulent and foreign donations. ActBlue has processed more than $16 billion for Democratic candidates and causes since 2004 and processed $1.78 billion in small-dollar donations in 2025 alone.

“ActBlue lied to Congress and to the American people, and I will ensure justice is served,” Paxton said in a statement. “Fair elections are the foundation of our democracy, and I will work to ensure no illegal campaign donation flies under the radar.”

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The lawsuit rests on a core factual allegation: ActBlue’s own outside counsel at Covington and Burling acknowledged in early 2025 that the organization’s representations about its donation safeguards to Congress were not true. The New York Times had previously reported that acknowledgment. Despite that, ActBlue did not correct its public statements or inform Congress of the discrepancy.

What Texas Investigators Found and When

The Office of the Attorney General opened its ActBlue investigation in December 2023. In February 2026, investigators made three test donations using false identities and prepaid gift cards. All three cleared the platform and landed in the accounts of the Democratic National Committee and two Texas state officials’ campaigns. The investigation also found that ActBlue made its fraud prevention rules “more lenient” twice during the 2024 election cycle despite documented fraud on the platform.

The lawsuit alleges seven counts against ActBlue, centering on false, misleading, and deceptive business practices under Texas consumer protection law. The state seeks an injunction prohibiting gift card and prepaid debit card donations, civil penalties of $10,000 per violation paid to the state, and full recovery of litigation costs. The complaint states the monetary relief sought exceeds $1 million.

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ActBlue’s Response and the Political Context

ActBlue denied wrongdoing through spokesperson De’Andra Roberts-LaBoo, calling the filing politically motivated. “This is a thinly veiled attempt to distract from Ken Paxton’s numerous legal and ethical issues ahead of next month’s runoff,” she said, referencing Paxton’s GOP Senate primary runoff against incumbent Senator John Cornyn. “Our platform has done more than any other, regardless of party, to prevent improper donations and protect donors.”

The timing is notable. Paxton is in an active Senate primary runoff. House Administration, Judiciary, and Oversight Committees have been investigating ActBlue separately for nearly two years over its 2024 practices. A House Republican aide has indicated that all options remain on the table for compelling ActBlue’s cooperation, including hauling its CEO before the panels or initiating contempt proceedings.

What the Lawsuit Means for Crypto and Campaign Finance

The ActBlue case is part of a broader federal and state-level pressure campaign on digital fundraising infrastructure heading into the 2026 midterms. The midterm pressure already compressing the congressional calendar for crypto legislation is compounded by each new political conflict that draws attention and legal resources away from the legislative agenda. Stablecoin regulation, the CLARITY Act, and crypto reform more broadly all depend on a Senate majority that can focus on substantive legislation rather than managing compounding political and legal crises through a midterm election cycle.

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Kalshi Eyes Crypto Perpetual Futures Expansion: Report

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Kalshi Eyes Crypto Perpetual Futures Expansion: Report

Prediction market exchange Kalshi is reportedly preparing to expand into cryptocurrency trading by introducing perpetual futures contracts, marking a major shift beyond its core event-based derivatives business.

In a Tuesday report, The Information cited people familiar with the matter as saying Kalshi plans to offer perpetual futures — commonly known as “perps” — on cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC).

Source: Walter Bloomberg

Perpetual futures are a type of derivative contract that allows traders to speculate on price movements without an expiration date. 

Unlike traditional futures, which must be rolled over periodically, perps enable continuous exposure and are typically paired with leverage. The structure was popularized in crypto markets by BitMEX, helping fuel the rapid growth of derivatives trading.

Kalshi’s planned launch would signal a move away from binary event contracts toward continuous financial markets, potentially broadening its appeal to both retail and institutional traders.

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Kalshi is regulated in the United States by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a distinction that could position it as a compliant alternative to offshore crypto derivatives platforms.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig has indicated that these products could become available in the United States in the near future, as regulators seek to bring more trading volume onshore.

Related: Onchain real-world perps surge, while altcoin rout drags on: Report

Competition for perps is gaining traction

The reported move comes amid intensifying competition across both prediction markets and the fast-growing perpetual futures segment, with US platforms increasingly seeking to offer this trading to non-US residents. 

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Crypto exchanges have been drawn in this direction, with Coinbase recently launching round-the-clock perpetual-style futures tied to equities for non-US traders, expanding beyond its traditional crypto derivatives offering.

Cryptocurrencies, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Kalshi, Prediction Markets
Although daily perpetual futures volumes are roughly half their peak levels, they still reached nearly $20 billion on Tuesday. Source: DeFiLlama

Kraken has also rolled out tokenized stock perpetual futures for users outside the United States, targeting exposure to US stock indexes, precious metals and individual stocks.

Related: S&P Dow Jones licenses S&P 500 perpetual futures for Hyperliquid