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Quantum Computing Crypto: Act Now, Coinbase Warns

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Quantum Computing Crypto: Act Now, Coinbase Warns

A 50 page quantum computing crypto risk assessment published Tuesday by Coinbase’s independent advisory board concludes that while today’s blockchains remain secure, a fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of breaking widely used encryption is increasingly plausible and that preparation must begin now, warning that “waiting for it to be urgent is not a good idea.”

Summary

  • The 50 page paper, authored by an independent board including Stanford cryptographer Dan Boneh, Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake, and EigenLayer founder Sreeram Kannan.
  • Replacing today’s signatures with quantum-resistant alternatives could expand blockchain data sizes by up to 38 times, according to one estimate in the report, meaning the transition carries significant engineering costs and performance tradeoffs.
  • Bitcoin wallets that have already revealed their public keys are identified as the most immediately vulnerable category of holdings in any future quantum attack scenario.

Quantum computing crypto risk has its most authoritative industry assessment yet. The Coinbase advisory board, a group of world-class cryptographers and blockchain researchers convened by Coinbase in January 2026, released its first major position paper Tuesday: a 50 page analysis of how future quantum computers could affect blockchain security and what the industry must do before that threat becomes real.

“Waiting for it to be urgent is not a good idea,” the paper states, emphasizing that transitions across blockchains, wallets, and exchanges could take years to execute safely even after all the technical standards are in place.

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The board members who authored the paper include Dan Boneh, the director of the Stanford Center for Blockchain Research; Justin Drake of the Ethereum Foundation; Sreeram Kannan, the founder of EigenLayer; Yehuda Lindell, Coinbase’s head of cryptography; and Dahlia Malkhi, an expert in resilient distributed systems. Their institutional breadth gives the paper a credibility that no single-company security assessment would carry.

What the Report Found and What Makes It Credible

The paper’s core conclusion is carefully calibrated: quantum computers today cannot crack the cryptography underpinning Bitcoin, Ethereum, or any major blockchain. Breaking standard encryption would require fault-tolerant quantum machines with vastly more error-corrected qubits than current hardware provides, and achieving that is still considered a major engineering challenge. The report does not predict when that will happen. It argues that the timeline uncertainty itself is the problem.

The threat the paper focuses on most is the harvest now, decrypt later attack: adversaries can collect encrypted blockchain data today and store it, waiting for quantum hardware to mature enough to crack it retroactively. For long-held assets, this is a material risk that begins now rather than when the quantum threat becomes practical. Bitcoin addresses that have already revealed their public keys on-chain are specifically identified as the most immediately exposed category of holdings.

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Why the Transition Will Be Harder Than It Sounds

The technical solution to quantum vulnerability already exists: NIST has standardized post-quantum cryptographic algorithms that are mathematically resistant to quantum attacks. The problem is implementation at blockchain scale. Post-quantum digital signatures can be tens to hundreds of times larger than the signatures in use today. One estimate in the Coinbase report suggests that replacing current signatures with quantum-proof alternatives could expand block sizes by up to 38 times.

For a network like Bitcoin, which processes blocks under a strict size limit and where any upgrade requires consensus among a decentralized set of stakeholders with no central authority, a 38-times expansion of signature data is not a parameter adjustment. It is a fundamental architectural change that touches every node, wallet, exchange, and application in the ecosystem. The debate among Bitcoin developers, already underway, reflects exactly this tension between urgency and the cost of change.

What Crypto Networks Are Already Doing

The Coinbase report arrives alongside parallel actions across the ecosystem. Ripple published a four phase XRPL post-quantum roadmap targeting completion by 2028. The Ethereum Foundation has elevated post-quantum security to a top strategic priority with a dedicated research team. Bitcoin developers are actively debating BIP 361, a proposal for a structured migration away from legacy address types that expose public keys.

For the Bitcoin quantum risk assessment specifically, researchers estimate approximately 4.5 million Bitcoin held in early or reused addresses may be exposed to future quantum attacks. The quantum threat debate in Bitcoin has become one of the most contested governance questions in the community, precisely because the solutions require either forcing coin migration or accepting that some portion of the supply may eventually be at risk.

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U.S. military commander flags Bitcoin’s cybersecurity role in Senate hearing

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Bitcoin exchange supply hits record low even as Winklevoss twins move $130M BTC

A senior U.S. military commander has described Bitcoin as a cybersecurity tool with potential use in national defense.

Summary

  • A U.S. military commander said Bitcoin can function as a cybersecurity tool, noting its proof-of-work design raises the cost for potential attackers.
  • Lawmakers examined Bitcoin’s role in national security during a Senate hearing focused on Indo-Pacific threats and cyber risks from state-linked actors.

At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Tuesday, Samuel Paparo said Bitcoin’s role goes beyond financial use cases and can support security systems tied to U.S. strategic interests.

“It is a valuable computer science tool, as a power projection,” Paparo said, adding that the network’s proof of work design “imposes more cost” on attackers attempting to interfere with it. 

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“Outside of the economic formulation of it, it has got really important computer science applications for cybersecurity.”

The hearing focused on the U.S. military’s posture in the Indo-Pacific, with discussions spanning ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, China’s military activity, and threats linked to North Korea.

Paparo’s remarks follow earlier comments from Jason Lowery, who has argued that proof-of-work networks can be used to secure digital systems in a cyber conflict. He said Bitcoin is often seen only as a monetary system, while its design can also secure “all forms of data, messages, or command signals.”

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State-linked cyber operations have increased in recent years, with attacks such as ransomware, phishing, and denial of service targeting infrastructure and financial systems. The Lazarus Group remains one of the most prominent examples, having stolen billions in crypto over the past decade, funds that U.S. officials say have supported North Korea’s nuclear program.

Paparo’s comments came after Tommy Tuberville asked how the U.S. could lead in Bitcoin-related competition, noting that Chinese policy groups are also examining the asset as a strategic tool. Paparo did not directly address policy steps but pointed to Bitcoin’s underlying structure.

“Bitcoin is a reality. It is a peer to peer zero trust transfer of value. Anything that supports all instruments of national power for the United States of America is to the good,” he said.

Concern over reliance on foreign-made mining hardware has also drawn attention in Washington, even as the U.S. holds the largest Bitcoin reserves among nation states and a significant share of global hashrate.

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Last month, Bill Cassidy and Cynthia Lummis introduced the Mined in America Act, aimed at expanding domestic production of Bitcoin mining equipment. The proposal also seeks to formalize the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve established under an executive order signed by Donald Trump.

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Kelp Exploiter Moves $175M of Stolen Funds: Arkham

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Kelp Exploiter Moves $175M of Stolen Funds: Arkham

The attacker behind the roughly $290 million Kelp DAO exploit began moving tens of thousands of Ether to newly created blockchain addresses on Tuesday, in what appears to be an effort to start laundering the stolen funds.

The wallet tagged by Arkham as linked to the Kelp DAO exploit moved about 75,700 Ether (ETH) worth roughly $175 million across three transactions on Tuesday, including a 25,000 ETH transfer to one newly created address and transfers of 50,700 ETH and 0.7 ETH to another.

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT wrote in a Tuesday Telegram post that addresses tied to the exploit had begun moving funds through THORChain and Umbra. He flagged three THORChain transactions totaling about $1.5 million and a separate $78,000 transfer through Umbra.

On Saturday, an attacker drained about 116,500 restaked Ether (rsETH), worth roughly $290 million to $293 million at the time, from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered rsETH bridge.

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LayerZero said Kelp DAO’s 1/1 decentralized verifier network (DVN) setup created a single point of failure by relying on a single verifier path for cross-chain messages. LayerZero said it had previously advised against that configuration.

Fallout spreads across DeFi

The transfers came hours after Arbitrum said its 12-member security council had taken emergency action to freeze 30,766 ETH tied to the exploit and move the funds into an “intermediary frozen wallet” accessible only through Arbitrum governance.

Kelp DAO attacker-tagged wallet, latest transactions. Source: Arkham 

The exploit also hit other DeFi protocols, including Aave, where the attacker used the stolen funds as collateral to borrow against the protocol. Early estimates put the hole at about $195 million, but Aave’s Monday incident report later outlined two potential outcomes: roughly $123.7 million in bad debt under one scenario and about $230.1 million under another.

The transfers suggest the attackers had begun moving funds through non-custodial protocols that can complicate tracing and recovery. THORChain does not require traditional Know Your Customer checks.

During the $1.4 billion Bybit hack in 2025, attackers converted about 83% of the stolen Ether into Bitcoin (BTC), with 72% of the funds moving through THORChain, according to Bybit CEO Ben Zhou. Zhou said at the time that 77% of the stolen funds were still traceable.

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Related: ZachXBT asks MemeCore to explain valuation and token supply

Aave unfreezes Ethereum V3 market as borrow rates spike

On Tuesday, Aave said it had unfrozen Wrapped Ether (WETH) reserves on the Ethereum Core V3 market, enabling users to supply WETH to the V3 lending protocol once again. However, WETH reserves across Ethereum Prime, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle and Linea remain frozen.

Source: Julio Moreno

Meanwhile, the thinning liquidity saw Aave’s borrowing rates for USDt (USDT) rise from 3% to 14%, marking the highest figures since December 2024, wrote Julio Moreno, the head of research at analytics platform CryptoQuant, in a Monday X post.

Fears over a potential contagion caused significant outflows from Aave, as its total value locked (TVL) fell by about $10 billion since the exploit to $16.4 billion as of Tuesday, DefiLlama data shows.

Magazine: 53 DeFi projects infiltrated, 50M NEO tokens could be ‘given back’: Asia Express

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