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Ramadan Cheaper as Global Supply Improves

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Sam North Market Analyst At Etoro

Editor’s note: Ramadan is a high-stakes period for shoppers in the UAE and GCC, where staple goods can swing on global supply dynamics as well as seasonal demand. This editorial overview examines how easing prices for wheat, sugar, coffee, and cocoa—driven by improved production and steady shipments—could influence household budgets this year. While retailers anticipate busier shopping periods, prices may hold more gently than in recent years if supply conditions stay favorable. The following press release outlines current commodity trends and what they could mean for Ramadan shoppers.

Key points

  • Wheat prices down 5% YoY; supply forecasts revised higher; exports and harvests improving.
  • Sugar down >10% in month, ~35% YoY; India quotas and Brazil export flows support supply.
  • Arabica coffee around $2.80/lb, 27% YoY drop; Brazil harvest expectations improving.
  • Cocoa around $3,200/ton, down 69% YoY; West Africa weather improving, ICE stocks at multi-month highs.

Why this matters

As Ramadan approaches, easing input costs and rising supplies may translate into lower retail costs for key Ramadan staples. The trends suggest the season could be cheaper than last year, offering relief to households in the UAE and GCC while producers navigate a more predictable supply landscape.

What to watch next

  • Monitor wheat export volumes and forecasts (SovEcon, IKAR, India exports, Argentina crop) from press content.
  • Watch sugar price movements, Indian export quotas, and weather conditions affecting production.
  • Track Arabica coffee price moves and Brazil harvest developments for 2026/27.
  • Observe cocoa inventories and ICE price trends as West Africa and South America conditions evolve.

Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.

Consumers May See Cheaper Ramadan as Commodity Prices Ease with Stronger Global Supply

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – February 23, 2026

Ramadan marks one of the busiest periods of the year for retailers across the UAE and the wider GCC. However, there is good news for consumers: several staple ingredients for the holy month, such as wheat, sugar, coffee, and cocoa, are entering the season at relatively soft prices as global supply conditions improve.

While consumer demand typically strengthens ahead of Ramadan, global markets are currently responding more to supply developments than seasonal buying patterns. What that means is that this Ramadan has potential to be cheaper than last year.

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The price of wheat, a core staple in Arab households, used in dishes such as harees and khubz, has come under mild downward pressure in recent sessions. Wheat prices are down 5% YoY; a modest dip. Futures are trading near $5.6 per bushel, easing from a three-month high earlier in February when a cold wave raised concerns about crop damage in parts of the U.S. Plains. As weather conditions improved, supply expectations stabilised. Russian production forecasts have been revised higher, with SovEcon estimating 85.9 million tons and IKAR projecting close to 91 million tons for 2026. India has also approved 2.5 million tons of wheat exports following strong harvests, while Argentina is reporting a near-record crop of around 28 million tons. Together, these developments are supporting global supply.

Sugar prices are down more than 10% over the past month and nearly 35% YoY, trading at around 13.46 U.S. cents per pound. Brazil continues to play a key role in global pricing, with strong export flows keeping markets well supplied. Improved weather conditions have further reduced production risks. In India, the world’s second-largest exporter, authorities recently increased the export quota by 500,000 tons to support market stability.

Arabica coffee, or gahwa, a central part of Ramadan gatherings, has eased to around $2.80 per pound, its lowest level since July 2025, and prices are now 27% lower YoY. Prices are under pressure as Brazil, the world’s largest producer, anticipates a strong 2026/27 harvest following improved rainfall. Brazil’s Conab forecasts output at 66.2 million bags, with some private estimates even higher. However, supplies from the current 2025/26 season remain relatively tight, which may limit the discount that consumers will ultimately see in shops

The staple that has seen the greatest price fall is cocoa. Cocoa is now around $3,200 per tonne, its lowest level since June 2023. Prices are down a whopping 69% YoY, representing a significant correction from 2025’s supply-driven spike. As the weather improves in West Africa and yields rise in South America, global supply is increasing. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) inventories have climbed to multi-month highs, signalling ample availability. For UAE consumers, cocoa’s stability is particularly relevant given the popularity of chocolate-based desserts during Ramadan and the continued buzz around the now-viral “Dubai Chocolate”. The market has shifted from last year’s supply shortages to expectations of more balanced conditions, reducing price pressure for now.

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Sam North Market Analyst At Etoro
Sam North Market Analyst At Etoro

Commenting on the broader trend, Sam North, Market Analyst at eToro, said: global markets are entering 2026 with improving production outlooks and stronger supply visibility. While short-term volatility cannot be ruled out, current fundamentals suggest that markets are well positioned to absorb seasonal Ramadan demand. It is worth noting that food producers typically secure raw materials in advance, meaning current futures prices are not immediately reflected in retail costs. Nevertheless, easing input prices support the prospect of a comparatively less expensive Ramadan this year, should softer trends persist.

Media Contact: PR@etoro.com

About eToro

eToro is the trading and investing platform that empowers you to invest, share and learn. We were founded in 2007 with the vision of a world where everyone can trade and invest in a simple and transparent way. Today we have 40 million registered users from 75 countries. We believe there is power in shared knowledge and that we can become more successful by investing together. So we’ve created a collaborative investment community designed to provide you with the tools you need to grow your knowledge and wealth. On eToro, you can hold a range of traditional and innovative assets and choose how you invest: trade directly, invest in a portfolio, or copy other investors. You can visit our media centre here for our latest news.

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How North Korea’s 6-month long secret espionage program has crypto community rethinking security

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How North Korea's 6-month long secret espionage program has crypto community rethinking security

When Drift disclosed the details behind its $270 million exploit, the most unsettling part wasn’t the scale of the loss — it was how it happened.

According to the team behind the protocol, the attack wasn’t a smart contract bug or a clever piece of code manipulation. It was a six-month campaign involving fake identities, in-person meetings across multiple countries and carefully cultivated trust. The attackers, allegedly from North Korea, didn’t just find a vulnerability in the system. They became part of it.

This new threat is now forcing a broader reckoning across decentralized finance.

For years, the industry has treated security as a technical problem, something that could be solved with audits, formal verification and better code. But the Drift incident suggests something far more complex: that the real vulnerabilities may lie outside the codebase altogether.

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Alexander Urbelis, chief information security officer (CISO) at ENS Labs, argues the framing itself is already outdated.

“We need to stop calling these ‘hacks’ and start calling them what they are: intelligence operations,” Urbelis told CoinDesk. “The people who showed up at conferences, who met Drift contributors in person across multiple countries, who deposited a million dollars of their own money to build credibility: that’s tradecraft. It’s the kind of thing you’d expect from a case officer, not a hacker.”

If that characterization holds, then Drift represents a new playbook: one where attackers behave less like opportunistic hackers and more like patient operators embedding themselves socially before making a move onchain.

“North Korea isn’t scanning for vulnerable contracts anymore. They’re scanning for vulnerable people… That’s not hacking. That’s running agents,” Urbelis added.

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The tactics themselves aren’t entirely new.

Investigations in recent years have shown North Korean operatives infiltrating crypto firms by posing as developers, passing job interviews and even securing roles under fake identities. But the Drift incident suggests those efforts have escalated — from gaining access through hiring pipelines to running months-long, in-person relationship-building operations before executing an attack.

‘The Achilles’ heel’

That shift is what has many security leaders most concerned. Even the most rigorously audited protocol can still fail if a contributor is compromised.

David Schwed, chief operating officer of SVRN and a former CISO at both Robinhood and Galaxy, sees the Drift case as a wake-up call.

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“Protocols need to understand what they’re up against. These aren’t simple exploits. These are well-planned, months-long operations with dedicated resources, fabricated identities, and a deliberate human element,” Schwed told CoinDesk. “That human element is the Achilles’ heel for many organizations.”

Many DeFi teams remain small, fast-moving and built on trust. But when a handful of individuals control critical access, compromising one can be enough.

Schwed argues that the response needs to be updated. “The answer is a well-fortified security program that protects not just the technology, but the people and the process… Security needs to be foundational to the project and the team.”

Some protocols are already adjusting. At Jupiter, one of Solana’s largest DeFi platforms, the baseline of audits and formal verification remains, but leaders claim it’s no longer sufficient.

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“Clearly, securing code via multiple independent audits, open sourcing, and formal verification is just table stakes. The surface area for attacks has broadened substantially,” said COO Kash Dhanda.

That broader surface now includes governance, contributors and operational security. Jupiter has expanded its use of multisigs and timelocks while investing in detection systems and internal training.

“Given that flesh is more vulnerable than code, we’re also updating opsec training and monitoring for key team members,” Dhanda said.

Even then, he added, “there is no end-state for security” and complacency remains the biggest risk.

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For protocols like dYdX, the Drift incident reinforces a reality that can’t be engineered away entirely.

“It’s an unfortunate fact of life that crypto projects are being increasingly targeted by state-sponsored bad actors… developers must take precautions to prevent and mitigate the impact of social engineering compromises, but users should also be aware that given the increasing sophistication of bad actors the risk of such compromises cannot be totally eliminated,” said David Gogel, COO of dYdX Labs.

That evolving threat model is also shifting responsibility toward users themselves.

“Users who are active in DeFi should take the time to understand the technical architecture of protocols or smart contracts that hold their funds, and should factor into their risk assessments the role and nature of any multisigs for software upgrades and the possibility that those could be maliciously compromised,” Gogel added.

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‘Threat model’

For some founders, the Drift exploit underscores a more uncomfortable conclusion: that trust itself has become a vulnerability.

“The Drift exploit wasn’t a code vulnerability. It was a six-month intelligence operation that exploited trust between humans,” said Lucas Bruder, CEO of Jito Labs.

In practice, that means designing systems that assume compromise — not just bugs.

“Smart contract audits are table stakes. The real attack surface is your team, your multisig signers, and every device they touch.”

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That mindset is becoming central to how DeFi approaches security. Schwed of SVRN says it starts with asking not just how a protocol works, but how it could fail.

“Start with a threat model. Ask yourself, how can I be exploited? If one of the project owners becomes compromised, what’s the blast radius of that scenario?”

In that sense, the Drift exploit may be remembered less for the funds lost than for what it revealed — that the biggest risks in DeFi may no longer live in the code, but in the people who run it.

Read more: How North Korea Infiltrated the Crypto Industry

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Decoupling From Tech Stocks, Reshaped by War and AI

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Bitcoin price is doing something it hasn’t done in months by moving on its own terms, breaking the recent bearish prediction. Trading near $68,500 and dropping by 2% today, BTC is quietly separating from the tech equity complex that dragged it lower through most of early 2026.

The catalyst isn’t a halving narrative or ETF inflow. It’s war, and the AI valuation crisis that is hitting software stocks. The full implications for price haven’t been priced in yet.

Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict on Feb. 28, Bitcoin’s correlation with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) collapsed from near-perfect alignment at close to 1.0 to just 0.13, a level signaling near-total decoupling, before partially recovering to around 0.7.

Over that same period, Bitcoin has risen more than 5% while IGV has dropped more than 2%. The gap is widening. Investors appear to be rotating out of software equities, where AI-driven margin compression is hammering SaaS multiples, and treating Bitcoin as a macro hedge instead, a role gold has occupied for decades. Geopolitical shock has a way of accelerating these thesis shifts.

The 1 year chart still shows both assets deeply underwater, Bitcoin down 10%, IGV off 15%, but the divergence since late February suggests the relationship is fundamentally changing.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Reclaim $75K as the Tech Decoupling Deepens?

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At current levels, Bitcoin is trading roughly 30% below its October all-time high after a peak-to-trough decline of approximately 50%. IGV peaked slightly earlier and fell about 35% from its own top, a shallower drawdown, but one now accelerating as AI disruption fears mount across enterprise software. The divergence in recovery trajectories is stark.

The key technical level to watch is the $67,000 range. The level has flipped from resistance to support following this week’s move. A hold above that level keeps the bull case intact. The next meaningful resistance cluster sits near $74,000–$75,000, where prior consolidation and moving average confluence converge.

Bitcoin price is doing something it hasn't done in months by moving on its own terms, breaking the recent bearish prediction.
BTC USD, Tradingview

For the bulls, geopolitical tension that sustains macro-hedge demand will keep IGV’s correlation suppressed near 0.3–0.5, and BTC breaks toward $75,000–$78,000 over the next 2–4 weeks.

But, correlation can drift back toward 0.7 as markets stabilize; BTC consolidates between $67,000 and $72,000 while macro catalysts remain ambiguous. A breakdown below $67,000, or a re-coupling with equities if risk-off sentiment deepens, reopens a path toward the $54,000 level flagged by more bearish technicals.

Year-to-date, Bitcoin remains down roughly 10%, matching IGV’s losses almost exactly. That symmetry is now breaking. Whether this week’s move is a structural shift or a head-fake is the only question that matters right now.

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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early Mover Upside as Bitcoin Tests Key Levels

Bitcoin at $68,500 is recovering, but a spot BTC position from here still means waiting on macro catalysts, regulatory timelines, and a 30%-plus move just to return to all-time highs. Early-stage infrastructure in the Bitcoin ecosystem offers a different risk profile entirely.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning itself at the intersection of two converging trends: Bitcoin’s resurgence as a macro asset and the explosive demand for scalable smart contract infrastructure. The project claims to be the first Bitcoin Layer 2 integrating the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM), delivering sub-second finality and low-cost smart contract execution while anchoring security to Bitcoin’s base layer.

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The presale has raised $32 million at a current price of $0.0136, with 36% APY staking rewards live for early participants. The Decentralized Canonical Bridge enables native BTC transfers into the ecosystem without custodial risk.

For traders who believe Bitcoin’s decoupling thesis has legs, research Bitcoin Hyper as a higher-beta way to express that conviction at the infrastructure layer.

The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Decoupling From Tech Stocks, Reshaped by War and AI appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Solana Foundation launches security overhaul days after $270 million Drift exploit

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Solana Foundation launches security overhaul days after $270 million Drift exploit

The Solana Foundation announced a suite of security initiatives on Monday, just five days after decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Drift Protocol suffered a $270 million exploit carried out by a North Korean state-affiliated group following a six-month social engineering campaign.

The centerpiece is Stride, a structured evaluation program led by Asymmetric Research that will assess Solana DeFi protocols against eight security pillars and publish its findings publicly. The foundation also introduced the Solana Incident Response Network (SIRN), a membership-based group of security firms and researchers focused on real-time crisis response.

The initiatives address part of the problem exposed by Drift, but not the mechanics that actually caused the loss. Drift’s smart contracts were not compromised, and its code passed audits. The vulnerability was human: The attackers spent six months building relationships with Drift contributors and compromised their devices through a malicious code repository and a fake TestFlight app.

Under Stride, protocols with more than $10 million in total value locked (TVL) that pass the evaluation will receive ongoing operational security and active threat monitoring funded by Solana Foundation grants, with coverage calibrated to each protocol’s risk profile.

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For protocols with more than $100 million in TVL, the foundation will also fund formal verification, a mathematical method that checks every possible execution path in a smart contract to guarantee correctness.

In addition to Asymmetric Research, founding members include OtterSec, Neodyme, Squads, and ZeroShadow. The network is available to all Solana protocols but prioritized by TVL.

Stride’s formal verification, however, would not have caught the North Korean attack, which used the compromised devices to obtain multisig approvals that were then locked into durable nonce transactions and executed weeks later.

Neither would 24/7 monitoring of onchain activity, because the transactions were valid by design and indistinguishable from legitimate administrative actions until they were used to drain the vaults. The attack exploited the gap between onchain correctness and offchain human trust, a gap no smart contract audit or monitoring tool is built to cover.

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SIRN, however, could have helped with the response. ZachXBT, an onchain security expert, criticized stablecoin issuer Circle Internet (CRCL) for failing to freeze over $230 million of its stolen dollar-pegged USDC during a six-hour window after the attack began.

A dedicated incident response network with established relationships to bridge operators, exchanges and stablecoin issuers might have shortened the response time. Whether it would have been fast enough to prevent the Wormhole bridging and obfuscation through Tornado Cash is an open question.

The foundation was careful to note that the programs “do not transfer the underlying responsibility away from the protocols themselves,” a line that reads differently after Drift’s postmortem revealed that individual contributor devices were the entry point for a nation-state attack.

Solana already hosts several free security tools for builders, including Hypernative for threat detection, Range Security for real-time monitoring, and Neodyme’s Riverguard for attack simulation.

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Crypto ETPs Rebound With $224M Inflows Led by XRP: CoinShares

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Crypto ETPs Rebound With $224M Inflows Led by XRP: CoinShares

Cryptocurrency investment products recorded minor inflows last week despite mixed geopolitical signals and increasingly hawkish investor expectations.

Global crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) clocked $224 million in inflows last week, following a $414 million outflow a week before, CoinShares reported on Tuesday.

The fresh inflows brought total assets under management to about $131.8 billion, roughly in line with levels seen at the same time last year. Year-to-date inflows also totaled about $1.2 billion, compared with $960 million over the same period last year.

The inflows marked a brief rebound in sentiment before later-week macro data and policy expectations reversed momentum, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill said.

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XRP leads inflows as Bitcoin trails closely

XRP (XRP) led inflows with about $120 million, contributing more than half of net weekly inflows.

The gains marked XRP’s largest weekly inflows since mid-December 2025, Butterfill noted, bringing its year-to-date inflows to $159 million.

Crypto ETP flows by asset (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

Bitcoin (BTC) ETPs followed closely with $107 million of inflows, bringing year-to-date flows to slightly above $1 billion. Of those gains, only around $22 million was contributed by US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which remain in negative territory year-to-date.

Solana (SOL) also saw minor inflows totaling around $35 million last week, with steady inflows this year representing 10% of total assets under management.

On the other hand, Ether (ETH) investment products continued to lag, posting $53 million in outflows. That followed $222 million in outflows the prior week, bringing year-to-date outflows to $327 million.

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Related: CoinShares stock makes US debut on Nasdaq following SPAC merger

CoinShares’ Butterfill attributed the negative sentiment around Ether to developments tied to the CLARITY Act, a major piece of crypto legislation closely linked to stablecoins, which are largely issued on the Ethereum blockchain. Following months of delays, US Senate Banking Committee member Bill Hagerty said Monday that he expects a potential path for the bill in the coming weeks.

Geographically, Switzerland led last week’s inflows at roughly $157 million, followed by Germany and the US, which both recorded about $28 million each, and Canada with $11 million.

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