Crypto World
Raoul Pal sees crypto hitting $100T in a decade
Raoul Pal says AI and crypto could add $100T to global GDP within a decade.
Summary
- Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal forecasts crypto will grow from roughly $2.7 trillion today to $100 trillion within a decade, driven by AI convergence.
- Pal argues AI adoption is accelerating faster than the internet era, describing the current moment as equivalent to “Metcalfe’s law squared.”
- He calls crypto the ownership layer for the AI economy, saying individuals can “front-run Wall Street” by owning blockchain infrastructure now.
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal argued that AI and blockchain are converging into a single new infrastructure layer for the global economy. He forecast the crypto market could grow from roughly $2.7 trillion today to $100 trillion within a decade. “We can own the infrastructure layer for the first time in history,” Pal said.
Pal framed the current moment as a historic acceleration point, comparing AI adoption to “Metcalfe’s law squared” and citing data showing AI now produces more words annually than humans. He said humanity is approaching a point where AI systems become “apex intelligence,” fundamentally reshaping labour, finance and daily life.
Why Pal says this moment is structurally different from past cycles
Pal’s $100 trillion thesis has sharpened around AI convergence. In earlier analysis, crypto.news tracked Pal’s argument that a debt-driven liquidity cycle would push crypto higher through 2026. His newer position adds AI as a structural demand driver on top of that macro thesis.
He described crypto as a permissionless equity system, allowing anyone with a phone to own exposure to blockchain infrastructure without KYC restrictions. Pal has also recently argued that all banks will eventually run on Ethereum, treating the network as long-term financial infrastructure.
What Pal says could derail crypto
Asked in the interview what could stop crypto adoption, Pal replied: “Nothing stops this train.” The response reflects his view that AI agent demand for on-chain rails is now structural, not cyclical. AI agents require instant settlement, fractional payments and permissionless access, none of which traditional payment systems support at scale.
Pal recommends holding Bitcoin for pure store of value and a basket of major layer-1 networks for the coordination layer. He has previously noted that moves between assets reflect capital rotation rather than structural trend changes, underscoring his preference for core positions over speculative bets.
Crypto World
Why liquidity fragmentation became one of crypto’s biggest trading problems
Crypto liquidity is scattered across exchanges and pairs, creating a structural “liquidity tax” of slippage, spread drag, and inconsistent execution that hits traders, tokens, and venues.
Summary
- Crypto trading is split across hundreds of venues with isolated order books, where the same trade can fill smoothly on one exchange and blow out spreads on another.
- During volatile moves, thinner exchanges see books vanish, spreads spike, and market orders slam price, turning small inefficiencies into a compounding performance drag.
- Projects and exchanges increasingly rely on professional market makers as a coordination layer to smooth out depth, tighten spreads, and keep liquidity usable across venues.
Crypto trading activity is spread across hundreds of exchanges, liquidity venues, market makers, and trading platforms. On the surface, that level of competition looks healthy. In practice, it has created one of the biggest structural problems in digital asset markets: fragmented liquidity.
Instead of liquidity being concentrated in a handful of deep and efficient markets, it is dispersed across disconnected exchanges with different order books, inconsistent spreads, uneven depth profiles, and varying execution quality. The result is a market in which pricing and trade execution can differ dramatically depending on where activity occurs.
This fragmentation affects almost every corner of the crypto ecosystem. Traders deal with inconsistent execution and slippage, exchanges compete to maintain liquidity depth, and token projects face credibility challenges when trading conditions vary significantly between venues. As crypto markets mature and more exchanges compete for order flow, liquidity fragmentation is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Why fragmentation creates trading inefficiencies
The effects of fragmentation become most visible during execution.
The same mid-sized order that fills efficiently on one exchange with tight spreads and minimal market impact can result in significantly worse execution on another venue with a thinner order book. During volatile trading sessions, these gaps become even more pronounced, especially when liquidity rapidly disappears from smaller exchanges.
This issue becomes even more severe during periods of heavy volatility. Order books on smaller exchanges can thin out within seconds, spreads widen aggressively, and market orders begin moving prices far more than expected. Recent market conditions have shown how quickly liquidity can deteriorate during sharp price swings, particularly on smaller exchanges with thinner order books.
For active traders and institutional participants, even relatively small inefficiencies compound quickly. Thin books increase slippage, widen spreads, and reduce execution consistency. During periods of heightened volatility, liquidity conditions can deteriorate rapidly during volatile market conditions, particularly on exchanges with thinner order books and weaker depth profiles.
Over hundreds or thousands of trades, the difference between deep and shallow liquidity environments becomes meaningful. What initially appears to be a small pricing inefficiency can gradually become a significant drag on performance, particularly for larger traders managing consistent order flow across multiple exchanges.
Liquidity fragmentation also creates pricing inconsistencies between venues. Since exchanges operate independently with different market participants and liquidity conditions, prices can diverge much more easily than in traditional financial markets with a centralised liquidity infrastructure.
This is one of the reasons why professional crypto market making has become such an important part of digital asset trading infrastructure. Market makers continuously quote buy and sell orders across multiple venues, helping maintain tighter spreads and healthier depth on both sides of the order book.
Without this coordination layer, execution inefficiencies and pricing gaps across exchanges would likely worsen during periods of volatility. This becomes particularly important during large market moves, when thinner exchanges often struggle to maintain stable liquidity conditions.
Research has increasingly highlighted that liquidity remains uneven across crypto markets. An institutional report on how trading depth is actually distributed across crypto highlighted large discrepancies between reported trading volume and true executable liquidity across many venues.
This disconnect between perceived liquidity and actual executable depth has become one of the more important structural issues in crypto market infrastructure, particularly as institutional trading activity continues to grow.
The exchange competition problem
Competition among exchanges has further accelerated fragmentation.
Over the past several years, new exchanges have launched aggressively across different regions and market segments. Most compete on similar positioning: broader token access, faster listings, lower fees, or specialised trading features. While this has expanded access to digital assets, it has also spread liquidity thinner across the ecosystem.
For highly liquid pairs like BTC/USDT or ETH/USDT, the largest exchanges still maintain sufficient depth to support large trading activity with relatively stable execution. Outside of those major pairs, however, liquidity quality deteriorates quickly.
A mid-cap token may appear on dozens of exchanges simultaneously while only a handful of venues hold meaningful trading depth. The remaining exchanges may display enough liquidity to appear active on market aggregators, but not enough to absorb moderate trading activity without significant price movement.
This creates a misleading perception of market health. Topline trading volume figures can appear impressive while actual executable liquidity remains limited. In many cases, depth deteriorates rapidly once trades move beyond relatively small sizes, exposing how unevenly liquidity is distributed across the market.
This gap between reported activity and true liquidity quality has become a growing focus among institutional traders, exchanges, and other professional market participants. As more sophisticated capital enters crypto markets, liquidity consistency is becoming just as important as raw trading volume.
Why projects care about liquidity consistency
For token projects, fragmentation creates both operational and reputational challenges.
A token may show strong aggregate trading volume across multiple exchanges, but if liquidity quality differs significantly between venues, institutional participants quickly notice. Professional traders are increasingly evaluating markets based not only on volume, but also on execution quality, spread stability, and the ability to move size efficiently during volatile periods.
Institutional participants typically look beyond simple volume metrics. They evaluate order book depth, spread consistency, slippage on larger orders, and liquidity resilience during market instability.
If a token consistently trades in thin or unpredictable environments, it becomes more difficult for larger participants to build or exit positions efficiently. That directly affects how the market perceives the asset. Poor liquidity conditions increase perceived risk, particularly for funds and larger trading firms that require reliable execution quality before allocating meaningful capital.
The operational side is also highly fragmented. Each exchange has different fee structures, API environments, listing standards, trading pair dynamics, and liquidity expectations. Managing liquidity quality across multiple venues simultaneously requires ongoing coordination and constant monitoring of trading conditions.
Most token teams simply lack the internal infrastructure to manage that process on their own. This is one reason why many projects work with professional market makers to support healthier liquidity conditions across multiple exchanges simultaneously.
The role of market makers
Market makers effectively act as a coordination layer between fragmented trading venues.
By continuously placing buy and sell orders across multiple exchanges, they help reduce spread inconsistencies, improve order book depth, and create more stable execution environments. Their role becomes particularly important during periods of volatility, when thinner exchanges can quickly lose liquidity and experience severe execution problems.
In practical terms, this means traders are more likely to receive consistent execution, even on smaller or less-liquid venues. Without that liquidity support, many order books would struggle to absorb even moderate trading activity. Spreads would widen more aggressively, slippage would increase substantially, and price gaps between exchanges would become even less efficient.
For exchanges, healthier liquidity conditions improve trading quality and user retention. For projects, stronger execution environments help support market confidence and improve accessibility across venues. Better liquidity consistency also helps reduce the perception that trading quality varies dramatically depending on where users access the asset.
Importantly, market makers are not creating artificial demand. Their role is primarily operational. They help maintain functional trading environments by improving liquidity availability, supporting tighter spreads, and increasing execution reliability during trading activity.
As crypto markets continue maturing, this infrastructure layer is becoming increasingly important. Liquidity quality is no longer viewed as a secondary market issue. It is becoming a core component of how exchanges, projects, and traders evaluate the health of trading environments.
Crypto World
Drift says insurance fund untouched after attack, withdrawals to resume
Drift Protocol said its insurance fund was not affected by the recent attack and that users who staked into the fund will be able to withdraw their shares normally once the protocol is brought back online.
Summary
- Drift said the insurance fund was not impacted because the protocol was paused before liquidation or bankruptcy losses were finalized.
- Users with insurance fund stakes will be able to withdraw their shares after the platform recovers.
- The protocol said its own insurance fund assets will help support a restart and user recovery effort.
Drift said in an official post on X that users who staked into the Insurance Fund will be able to withdraw their corresponding shares once the protocol is restored. The protocol added that the fund itself was not affected by the attack because Drift was paused before any losses could be completed through “normal liquidation or bankruptcy processes.”
That distinction matters because Drift’s own documentation defines the Insurance Fund as the first backstop for maintaining exchange solvency in the event of bankruptcies. More detailed staking documentation says users can unstake from the fund, although withdrawals are subject to a cooldown period of 13 days.
The update follows one of the biggest Solana DeFi breaches of the year. In April, crypto.news reported that the Drift hack drained about $285 million through a compromised administrator key in what security researchers described as a social engineering attack rather than a smart contract flaw.
Why the fund was spared
Drift’s explanation is straightforward: the insurance mechanism exists to absorb insolvency created by liquidations and bankruptcies, not to retroactively cover an external exploit that was halted before those internal loss pathways finished playing out. In its latest statement, the team said that because the protocol was paused early enough, the Insurance Fund never became part of the loss cascade tied to the vulnerability.
That aligns with outside reporting on the incident. Elliptic estimated the exploit at $286 million and said Drift suspended deposits and withdrawals during the attack, while Chainalysis described the breach as a privileged-access compromise that led to roughly $285 million in losses over a matter of minutes.
The protocol had already signaled that the fund was being secured as a precaution. Reporting from Binance cited Drift as saying the insurance fund assets were unaffected and were being withdrawn to enhance protection after the exploit.
Recovery and restart plan
Drift now says assets from the protocol’s own Insurance Fund will be used to support the system restart and broader user recovery, and that it plans to publish the relevant on-chain addresses so the community can track how the funds are used. That is a notable shift from simply ring-fencing the fund toward actively deploying part of it in the recovery process.
The insurance fund is only one part of Drift’s broader rebuilding effort. In April, multiple outlets reported that the protocol had lined up as much as $147.5 million in support for affected users, including up to $127.5 million from Tether and another $20 million from partners, while later recovery plans pointed to recovery tokens tied to verified losses, as covered by CoinMarketCap and RootData.
For users, the immediate takeaway is narrower and more important: insurance fund stakes were not wiped out in the exploit, and normal withdrawals are expected to resume after Drift’s recovery process is complete.
Crypto World
EU Reviews Stablecoin Interest Ban in Potential MiCA Overhaul
The European Commission has opened a review of its landmark crypto regulation, signaling that the European Union is considering updates to its landmark digital asset framework just two years after it took effect.
The commission on Wednesday launched a public consultation seeking feedback from the crypto industry and the wider public on whether the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) should be updated. The consultation will remain open until Aug. 31.
The commission said crypto markets and the global regulatory environment have “continued to evolve” since MiCA took effect in 2024, prompting officials to assess whether the current framework remains “fit for purpose.”
The move marks an important regulatory development in the EU, with some industry observers already referring to potential future updates to the framework as “MiCA 2.”
Stablecoin interest ban included in regulatory review
The targeted consultation under MiCA is a detailed questionnaire designed to assess how the regulation is functioning in practice and where adjustments may be needed.
It seeks feedback on ongoing classification challenges, particularly the blurred boundary between crypto assets and traditional financial instruments under EU law, including wrapped tokens, synthetic assets and tokenized fund interests.
A key focus is stablecoins, including a reassessment of MiCA’s prohibition on interest or interest-like remuneration. The commission is asking whether this restriction should be maintained or revised, alongside broader questions on reserve requirements, liquidity management, redemption rights and the thresholds used to determine “significant” tokens.

An excerpt from the targeted consultation on the MiCA review. Source: EC
Beyond stablecoins, the consultation also examines emerging risk areas, including decentralized finance (DeFi), staking, lending, non-fungible tokens, and crypto asset service providers (CASPs), as well as issues around market integrity, investor protection and potential simplification of compliance rules.
Related: Euro stablecoin project Qivalis adds 25 banks ahead of launch
The inclusion of DeFi and tokenized financial assets is particularly notable as both areas remain largely outside MiCA’s scope.
EU probes whether consumers actually trust crypto
The public consultation document shows the commission is not only reviewing whether MiCA works as a legal framework, but also whether ordinary consumers understand and trust digital assets under the new rules.
Many of the questions focus on user awareness of Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), stablecoins, DeFi and tokenized assets.

An excerpt from the public consultation on the MiCA review. Source: The EC
It also explores what would increase consumer confidence in crypto services, including stronger protections, clearer rules, improved supervision and easier access through regulated banks and payment providers.
The review comes as MiCA approaches a key transitional deadline in July 2026, after which CASPs must be fully authorized under the EU framework or cease operations.
Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026
Crypto World
Bitcoin longs hit 2.5-year high amid 5-day slide
Bitcoin longs on Bitfinex surged to 80,636 BTC on May 20, the highest level since December 2023.
Summary
- Bitfinex margin long positions rose to 80,636 BTC on May 20, up roughly 10% since the start of 2026 despite Bitcoin falling 13% in the same period.
- Bitcoin has declined for five consecutive trading days, sliding from above $80,000 to near $76,000 amid broader market weakness.
- The so-called Bitfinex whale has historically expanded long positions during weakness and reduced them near local market tops.
Leveraged traders on Bitfinex continued buying into Bitcoin’s sell-off, with margin long positions rising to 80,636 BTC on May 20 according to TradingView data.
The figure marks the highest level since December 2023 and represents a roughly 10% increase since the start of 2026. Bitcoin has fallen 13% year to date even as these long positions climbed.
The latest pullback saw Bitcoin slide from above $80,000 to approximately $76,000 over five consecutive losing sessions between May 15 and May 19.
It marks the second longest losing streak of the year, with the asset attempting its first daily green candle in six days at the time of writing. Bitcoin is now trading approximately 35% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
What the Bitfinex whale data signals
Historically, the so-called Bitfinex whale has acted as a contrarian indicator. Large leveraged long positions on the exchange have frequently expanded during market weakness and been reduced closer to local tops and trend reversals. The pattern does not guarantee a price floor, but it has attracted attention from analysts who track whale positioning as a leading signal.
Bitcoin is currently approaching a key technical zone. The asset is testing both the True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis near $78,000, with the 200-day moving average sitting above $81,000. Reclaiming that level would be seen by many traders as a first step toward structural recovery.
Why some traders are not convinced a bottom is in
Rising margin longs during a sustained price decline can also signal that a clear price floor has not yet occurred. When leveraged long positions accumulate, the market becomes vulnerable to a cascade of liquidations if prices continue falling, amplifying downside pressure rather than absorbing it.
Crypto.news has tracked analyst commentary throughout 2026 that consistently pointed to $78,000 to $81,000 as the key zone for Bitcoin to reclaim before a sustained recovery becomes probable.
The divergence between rising margin exposure and falling prices reflects an ongoing standoff between dip buyers and sellers. The Bitcoin price page tracks real-time movements as that standoff plays out.
Crypto World
Jane Street rejects Terra Telegram claims
Jane Street has rejected new insider trading claims centred on a private Telegram channel during the 2022 Terra collapse.
Summary
- A Manhattan complaint accuses Jane Street of using a Telegram channel to exit $192 million of TerraUSD before UST lost its dollar peg.
- The suit names co-founder Robert Granieri and trader Michael Huang alongside a former Terraform intern who allegedly relayed non-public information.
- Jane Street called the complaint a transparent attempt to extract money and said it will defend vigorously against the claims.
A Manhattan federal complaint alleges Jane Street used a private Telegram channel to exit $192 million in TerraUSD before its May 2022 collapse. The suit claims the firm made approximately $134 million betting against the token as Terra’s ecosystem unraveled.
The case was filed by the administrator winding down Terraform Labs and also names Jane Street co-founder Robert Granieri and trader Michael Huang. The complaint alleges a former Terraform intern who later joined Jane Street relayed non-public information through the private channel, enabling the firm to sell ahead of the depeg.
The Telegram backchannel at the centre of the insider trading complaint
On May 7, 2022, Jane Street allegedly sold 85 million UST minutes after Terraform withdrew 150 million from a key Curve pool. Crypto.news has reported on the broader lawsuit, filed in February 2026 by court-appointed administrator Todd Snyder.
“This suit is a transparent attempt to extract money when it is well-established that the losses suffered by Terra and Luna holders were the result of a multi-billion dollar fraud perpetrated by the management of Terraform Labs,” a spokesperson said.
Jane Street asked a Manhattan court in April 2026 to dismiss the case with prejudice, arguing its trading was based on public information. The motion also cited the Wagoner rule, which limits a bankruptcy estate’s ability to sue third parties for losses tied to its own wrongdoing. The court has not yet ruled.
Why the case matters for crypto market regulation
The lawsuit draws on a 2023 ruling that UST and Luna qualified as securities. That precedent strengthens the legal footing for the securities fraud claims against Jane Street.
Terraform’s administrator also separately sued Jane Street in February 2026 over the initial front-running allegations tied to the Curve pool withdrawal.
Do Kwon, Terraform’s co-founder, has pleaded guilty to conspiracy and wire fraud and is serving a 15-year prison sentence. Administrator Todd Snyder previously stated that Jane Street’s trades hastened Terraform’s collapse by draining liquidity and accelerating market panic.
Crypto World
Tether Buys SoftBank Stake in Twenty One Capital, Expands Bitcoin Strategy
Tether has acquired SoftBank Group’s stake in Twenty One Capital, the Bitcoin treasury company that is expanding into lending, mining and capital markets services, in a move that gives the stablecoin issuer greater control over one of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holders.
In an announcement on Wednesday, Tether said it purchased SoftBank’s roughly 26% stake for an undisclosed amount. SoftBank was one of the earliest backers of Twenty One Capital, which launched in 2025 as a Bitcoin (BTC) treasury company backed by Cantor Fitzgerald and led by Jack Mallers.
Neither controlling shareholder Tether nor Twenty One Capital disclosed the size of Tether’s stake. As part of the ownership change, SoftBank’s representatives will step down from Twenty One Capital’s board of directors.
The transaction further consolidates ownership under Tether, which deepens the stablecoin issuer’s influence over the company’s strategy and governance.
The ownership changes come as publicly traded Bitcoin treasury companies face greater pressure during periods of market weakness. When Bitcoin prices fall, the value of their core asset declines, reducing net asset value and making it more difficult to raise fresh capital without diluting existing shareholders.

Twenty One Capital’s Bitcoin treasury is worth roughly $3.34 billion. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET
Related: Michael Saylor floated Bitcoin sales idea to avoid ‘impairing’ the asset
Twenty One Capital shares rise but volatility remains
Separately, Twenty One Capital outlined plans to move beyond a pure Bitcoin treasury model and become a broader Bitcoin-focused financial services company. It intends to combine its treasury operations with Bitcoin lending, mining and capital markets activities
Shares of Twenty One Capital were up 4% at last look on Wednesday morning following the news.

Twenty One Capital’s stock performance. Source: Yahoo Finance
Today’s gains clawed back some of the 37% decline investors have seen since XXI stock began trading on the New York Stock Exchange in December following its business combination with Cantor Equity Partners.
Earlier developments had already pointed to possible changes at the company. As Cointelegraph reported in April, Tether said it intended to vote in favor of a proposed merger between Twenty One Capital and Mallers’ Bitcoin payments company Strike. The plan also contemplated merging the combined entity with Bitcoin miner Elektron Energy.
Related: Crypto Biz: Bitcoin treasuries break ranks as BTC dips below $70K
Crypto World
Fairshake PAC’s $20M Primary Spend Tests 3 States’ Campaign Rules
Crypto-aligned political action committees (PACs) backed by industry participants secured a string of wins in three U.S. state primaries on Tuesday, signaling a potential blueprint for crypto politics ahead of the 2026 midterms. The Fairshake network and its affiliates deployed sizable media spend to back a slate of candidates, with the funding stream largely anchored by Ripple Labs and Coinbase. The groups are coordinating through vehicles such as Defend American Jobs (supporting Republicans) and Protect Progress (for Democrats perceived as pro-crypto).
In Georgia and Kentucky, four Republican candidates and one Democrat won their respective primaries for U.S. Senate and House seats, while a Republican in Alabama advanced to a runoff. The successes underscore the willingness of crypto-affiliated committees to pursue both partisan angles in pursuit of policy-friendly outcomes.
“Fairshake’s 6-0 sweep tonight was a clear victory for pro-crypto leaders across the country,” Fairshake spokesperson Geoff Vetter told Cointelegraph. He added, “This powerful bipartisan mandate is being heard across America from Georgia to Alabama to Kentucky.”
According to Federal Election Commission filings, Protect Progress spent more than $4.2 million to back Jasmine Clark, who is running in Georgia’s 13th Congressional District. Defend American Jobs reported substantial media expenditures on Republican candidates: $455,000 for Clay Fuller in Georgia’s 14th district, $709,000 for Houston Gaines in Georgia’s 10th district, $431,000 for Jim Kingston in Georgia’s 1st district, and $7.2 million for Kentucky’s U.S. Senate seat. In Alabama, Barry Moore was backed with $7.4 million from Defend American Jobs in his run for the U.S. Senate, setting up a runoff against state Attorney General Steve Marshall and Republican candidate Jared Hudson after no candidate secured a majority in the primary.
Fairshake and its crypto industry backers are positioning their spending as a long-term strategy. A spokesperson indicated the aim is to mobilize support for pro-crypto leadership in 2026, with the group forecasting continued, substantial media expenditures to counter anti-crypto positions. The organization has reported a war chest of about $193 million, a figure far larger than its $130 million outlay in 2024 for media and advertising to influence congressional races. This scale reflects a broader strategy to shape policy conversations around regulation, taxation, and market structure in ways favorable to the industry.
Related reporting notes broader patterns in crypto PAC activity, including prior efforts that did not achieve expected influence. For example, Fairshake spent roughly $8 million opposing Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton in a U.S. Senate primary, yet Stratton won with more than 40% of the vote, illustrating the challenges of converting large media spend into decisive electoral outcomes.
Texas runoff tests crypto‑PAC influence
In Texas, Protect Progress has intensified its media investment to bolster Democratic candidate Christian Menefee in the race to unseat incumbent Al Green in Texas’ 18th Congressional District. Federal Election Commission filings indicate Protect Progress allocated more than $4.1 million to support Menefee and reported more than $2.8 million in media buys opposing Green, who has expressed anti-crypto views and supported votes against several crypto policy proposals, including the GENIUS Act (stablecoins) and the CLARITY Act (digital asset market structure).
Preliminary runoff dynamics in Texas reflect the complexity of crypto PAC strategy at the state level: Protect Progress previously spent more than $1.5 million opposing Green ahead of a March primary, but neither candidate secured a majority, triggering the upcoming runoff. The Texas contest adds to a broader narrative about crypto-aligned funding influencing candidate positioning on policy, regulatory oversight, and fintech innovation at the state level.
These developments appear within a wider regulatory frame. While the primary focus is electoral, the activity intersects with ongoing U.S. regulatory scrutiny of crypto markets—the SEC, CFTC, and DOJ remain central to enforcement and policy shaping. Observers note that such PAC activity can have implications for licensing, KYC/AML compliance, and cross-border policy alignment, particularly as U.S. states experiment with their own digital-asset frameworks while federal agencies assess uniform standards. In a comparative sense, regulatory trajectories abroad—such as the European Union’s MiCA framework—underscore a global significance to political economy decisions around crypto policy.
Historical context, risk considerations, and compliance implications
The crypto industry’s growing involvement in electoral politics reflects a strategic effort to influence policy direction in a landscape of evolving rules and enforcement priorities. The scale of spending—multimillion-dollar media buys and targeted district focus—highlights both opportunity and risk for participating firms. While such campaigns can advance policy priorities, they also elevate compliance considerations, including disclosure requirements, attribution practices, and the potential for heightened scrutiny from regulators and the public. Institutions engaging in or monitoring these activities should weigh the governance implications, including how such spending aligns with internal compliance frameworks and risk appetites in relation to regulatory expectations.
Looking ahead, the 2026 midterms loom as a critical inflection point. The continued deployment of pro-crypto messaging through PACs could influence candidate selection, committee assignments, and policy coalitions on issues such as stablecoin regulation, market structure, and the integration of crypto with traditional financial institutions. Analysts and compliance teams should monitor fundraising disclosures, media strategies, and endorsements to gauge how this activity may shape regulatory debates at both state and federal levels. The evolving policy environment will likely require ongoing assessment of political risk, licensing considerations, and cross-border regulatory alignment as the sector navigates a complex and rapidly changing framework.
Closing perspective: As crypto policy remains unsettled, the alignment of industry funding with specific candidates and district-level policy priorities will continue to draw attention from regulators, financial institutions, and legal professionals seeking to understand how electoral dynamics translate into practical regulatory outcomes and enforcement focus.
Crypto World
Clarity Act floor vote could come by August says Lummis
Senator Lummis says a Clarity Act Senate floor vote could come before August, with passage odds at 75%.
Summary
- Galaxy Research raised its 2026 Clarity Act passage probability to 75% following the Senate Banking Committee’s 15-9 bipartisan vote on May 14.
- Senator Lummis said she would love a June floor vote but called that timeline “probably pretty optimistic,” with August now the realistic target.
- Seven Democratic votes are needed to clear the 60-vote filibuster threshold, with an elected officials ethics provision as the key sticking point.
A Senate floor vote on the Clarity Act could come within 30 days, with Galaxy Research raising its 2026 passage probability to 75% following last week’s 15-9 bipartisan Senate Banking Committee vote.
Senator Cynthia Lummis struck a measured tone. “Nobody is popping the champagne quite yet. There’s still a lot of work to do,” she said. On timing she was direct: “I would love to have this bill on the floor in June. That’s probably pretty optimistic.”
What still has to happen before a Senate floor vote
The bill must first be merged with a Senate Agriculture Committee version that differs on CFTC jurisdiction provisions. After reconciliation, the combined text needs 60 Senate floor votes to clear a filibuster.
Crypto.news has tracked the compressed legislative calendar throughout 2026, with the Memorial Day recess now passed as an earlier hard deadline. Galaxy Research head of research Alex Thorn estimates a signing during the week of August 3 in the optimistic scenario.
What a Clarity Act signing would mean for crypto markets
Galaxy Research’s 75% probability is the highest institutional estimate on record for the bill. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt said Clarity Act passage would deliver roughly 90% of what the crypto industry needs from Congress.
Analysts at Standard Chartered have estimated passage could unlock $4 to $8 billion in additional XRP ETF inflows alone. The XRP price page tracks market reaction against the legislative backdrop in real time.
Why the ethics provision is the last major obstacle
Two Senate Democrats voted yes in the Banking Committee, but reaching 60 floor votes requires seven more Democratic crossovers. The primary sticking point is a conflict-of-interest provision covering elected officials participating in crypto markets.
Cody Carbone of the Digital Chamber told reporters a deal on the ethics provision would likely be completed before the bill goes to the floor. “I imagine the deal will be completed before this goes to the floor, because they’ll want to only bring it to the floor if they feel confident they’ve got 60,” he said.
Crypto World
SpaceX’s IPO filing shows Bitcoin holdings exceeding forecasts
SpaceX’s latest SEC filing reveals a Bitcoin position of 18,712 coins, valued at about $1.45 billion at current prices, with an average purchase price of $35,320 per BTC. The disclosure, embedded in the company’s S-1 registration statement, places SpaceX among the largest bitcoin-holding corporate treasuries and exceeds prior estimates from blockchain trackers.
The disclosure coincides with SpaceX’s bid to go public, a process that could see the company raise around $75 billion and reach an implied valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. In that scenario, owning SpaceX stock would also provide exposure to its Bitcoin stash, adding a crypto dimension to an otherwise aerospace- and AI-centric business lineup.
Key takeaways
- SpaceX reports 18,712 BTC in its S-1 filing, representing about $1.45 billion at current prices, with an average cost of $35,320 per BTC.
- The holdings position SpaceX as the seventh-largest BTC asset among public companies, surpassing peers like Tesla, which holds 11,509 BTC.
- Earlier estimates from trackers such as BitcoinTreasuries.NET and Arkham had placed SpaceX’s BTC at around 8,285, illustrating how official disclosures can differ from market tallies.
- SpaceX’s IPO plan aims to raise roughly $75 billion, with a valuation explored in the range of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, potentially enabling equity holders to gain crypto exposure alongside aerospace and AI ventures.
- The filing frames SpaceX as pursuing what it calls one of the largest actionable total addressable markets in history, a $28.5 trillion opportunity spanning AI, space, and connectivity.
SpaceX’s BTC position and the IPO pairing
The S-1 filing shows SpaceX’s 18,712 BTC stake was acquired at an average price of $35,320 per coin, a figure that helps contextualize the company’s willingness to hold crypto as part of its corporate treasury strategy. In the public markets, this level of Bitcoin exposure is rare for a private company that is now transitioning toward an offering that could bring the treasury into the limelight for public investors. The 18,712 BTC tally places SpaceX ahead of several large holders among publicly traded or soon-to-be-public entities, and it underscores how crypto assets have become a strategic asset class for corporate balance sheets.
The filing explicitly ties the Bitcoin position to SpaceX’s broader capital-raising plan. If the IPO proceeds as outlined, investors would gain not only a stake in a diversified aerospace-and-AI platform but also a direct link to Bitcoin through the equity instrument. This dynamic—crypto exposure embedded in a mega-cap tech/group IPO—highlights a growing appetite among high-profile private firms to leverage public markets as a funding channel while maintaining crypto exposure as a strategic asset.
SpaceX versus peers and the trackers’ estimates
The SEC document marks a notable shift from prior third-party estimates. Tesla, another high-profile corporate BTC holder, is reported to hold 11,509 BTC, which means SpaceX’s disclosed holdings exceed Tesla’s. The discrepancy with tracker estimates—BitcoinTreasuries.NET and Arkham had pegged SpaceX at roughly 8,285 BTC—illustrates the challenges of cross-verifying private treasury positions until formal filings surface. This gap between trackers and official filings is a reminder of how quickly crypto balances can move and how much is still opaque in private holdings until disclosed in regulatory documents.
Beyond the raw numbers, the comparison signals changing attitudes toward corporate crypto. SpaceX’s approach — acquiring a sizable BTC stake and seeking public-market liquidity — contrasts with earlier adoptions that treated BTC as an opportunistic diversification rather than a structural asset class embedded in corporate strategy.
Toward a massive addressable market and long-term implications
In the same filing, SpaceX frames its ambitions within a sweeping total addressable market, pegging a potential opportunity of about $28.5 trillion across AI, space, and connectivity. That figure reflects not only the company’s ambitions in satellite internet (Starlink) and orbital infrastructure but also the strategic leverage of AI-enabled systems and data services. If realized, the combination of a sizable crypto treasury and a public-market financing event could reshape how SpaceX funds next-generation projects—from Starlink expansion to orbital data centers and even long-term ambitions like interplanetary missions.
SpaceX is among a small cohort of highly valued private firms anticipated to pursue public listings in 2026, alongside AI-centric rivals. The IPO route could unlock billions in capital while bolstering investor access to a company that sits at the intersection of aerospace, communications infrastructure, and advanced AI development. For market participants, the key takeaway is not only the BTC balance but what the financing strategy reveals about SpaceX’s longer-term business model and growth trajectory.
The combination of a substantial Bitcoin treasury and a high-stakes public offering underscores a broader trend: crypto assets are increasingly integrated into the strategic DNA of large technology and infrastructure players. For investors, the implications are twofold. First, SpaceX stock could offer indirect exposure to Bitcoin through a widely traded equity instrument, potentially pairing crypto sensitivity with a diversified tech portfolio. Second, the IPO will spotlight how crypto assets are treated in valuation models for mega-cap issuers, particularly when those assets are integrated into a company’s strategic financing toolkit.
As SpaceX navigates the regulatory and market pathways to become a public company, observers will be watching how the treasury policy evolves, whether additional Bitcoin purchases surface before or after the IPO, and how the company articulates the role of crypto within its broader corporate strategy. The coming months will reveal how much of SpaceX’s crypto stance is a temporary hedge, a long-term treasury policy, or a signal of a fundamentally crypto-forward corporate culture.
What remains uncertain is how investors will price the interplay between SpaceX’s growth prospects, its ambitious connectivity and AI initiatives, and the Bitcoin position that now sits at the heart of its reported treasury. Readers looking for the next updates should track SpaceX’s regulatory disclosures and any further color on how the crypto holding aligns with the company’s stated mission and capital-raising milestones.
Crypto World
South Korea Funeral Firm Hit by $33M Loss on Crypto ETF Trade
TLDR
- A South Korean funeral company reported a $33 million unrealized loss from a leveraged Ethereum ETF investment.
- The firm used prepaid customer funeral funds to invest in a high-risk crypto-linked exchange-traded fund.
- The investment dropped from 59.5 billion won to 10.2 billion won by the end of 2025.
- The ETF aimed to deliver twice the daily returns of a crypto mining company tied to Ethereum.
- Company officials described the loss as temporary and linked it to global market volatility.
A South Korean funeral services company has reported a $33 million unrealized loss tied to an Ethereum ETF-linked investment. The firm used prepaid customer funds to buy a leveraged crypto-related ETF, raising concerns in South Korea. The loss highlights risks tied to holding leveraged Ethereum ETF products over extended periods.
South Korea Ethereum ETF Bet Triggers Major Loss
Bumo Sarang disclosed an unrealized loss of 49.3 billion won, or about $33 million. The company confirmed the figures in a recent financial update.
The firm had invested 59.5 billion won into a leveraged exchange-traded fund. That position fell to 10.2 billion won by the end of 2025.
The ETF tracks BitMine Immersion Technologies, a crypto mining company with exposure to Ethereum. It trades under the ticker BMNU and aims to deliver twice daily returns.
Bumo Sarang ranks as South Korea’s seventh-largest funeral service provider. The company manages prepaid funeral service contracts from customers.
Company representatives described the loss as temporary. They said it reflects “short-term unrealized loss due to global market volatility.”
The investment relied on a 2x leveraged ETF structure. This structure amplifies both gains and losses daily.
The ETF tracks BitMine Immersion Technologies, which trades under BMNR. The firm’s operations include Ethereum mining activities.
Leveraged ETF Structure Drives Losses
Leveraged ETFs rebalance daily to maintain target exposure. This design makes them unsuitable for long-term holding.
Daily compounding can erode value during volatile trading periods. This effect is widely known as volatility decay.
If the underlying stock rises 5%, the ETF targets a 10% gain. However, a 5% drop results in a 10% loss.
Over multiple days, price swings can reduce overall returns. This happens even if the underlying asset ends near its starting level.
Prepaid funeral funds require careful risk management. Customers expect those funds to remain stable until needed.
Using such funds for leveraged crypto-related investments creates a mismatch. The investment carries a higher risk than the obligation it supports.
The ETF involved is part of the T-REX leveraged product family. These funds include clear warnings about short-term usage.
Bumo Sarang has not reported realized losses yet. The company stated the position remains on its balance sheet as of late 2025.
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