Bitcoin’s onchain metrics are flashing their most constructive signals since early February, but underlying seller behavior and derivatives positioning suggest the road to new highs will not be easy, Bitfinex shared in an analyst note to CoinDesk on Thursday.

Long-term holders, whose bitcoin holdings have increased by 300% since the end of 2025 to nearly 4 million tokens, have started taking $180 million in profits per day since BTC rallied to the over the $82,000 level on May 11 before dropping from $81,000 to the lower $79,000s on Thursday.

“That is a moderate amount compared with past cycles and suggests current selling is controlled,” they said, explaining that the concern lies in daily realized losses, which they said still average $479 million. ”In quieter periods, this figure sits closer to $200 million. Until losses drop to the $200 million band, the onchain recovery is not fully confirmed.”

The gamma trap

Supporting this cautious outlook is a “gamma trap” identified in the derivatives market. Data from Glassnode shows nearly $2 billion in short gamma options positions clustered around the $82,000 strike price. As bitcoin trades within this zone, market makers are forced to hedge their positions, initially amplifying volatility and potentially “squeezing” the price toward $82,000, Bitfinex said in its note.

Jason Fernandes, co-founder at AdLunam, noted that this gamma concentration creates a deceptive environment. “Dealer hedging can accelerate price toward that level, but once the squeeze exhausts itself, the same positioning can suppress momentum and act as resistance,” Fernandes told CoinDesk. “In other words, gamma is currently amplifying the move, not necessarily validating it.”

While onchain data shows improvement, the analyst said, “corporate buyers, by contrast, have gone quiet. Major players bought very little bitcoin last week, with an 80% drop in purchase volume compared with last month.”

A major red flag is waving

Fernandes points to the divergence between price and institutional flows as a major red flag. Despite the recovery, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $635 million outflow on May 13, the largest single-day exit since January.

Mati Greenspan, a market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, noted that the current “cost-basis battlefield” between $79,000 and $85,000 looks more like a transition zone than a ceiling.

Beyond technicals, the broader economic landscape remains a hurdle. On May 13, the U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair amidst rising 3.8% inflation. Fernandes noted that the market is now pricing in a “higher for longer” reality.

“Kevin Warsh has already set expectations that there is unlikely to be a rate cut this year—it’s possible there may even be a rate hike,” Fernandes said. “I just don’t see BTC reaching a new ATH this year unless something radically changes geopolitically.”

Given the elevated realized losses and the lack of corporate support, which saw an 80% drop in purchase volume last week, Bitfinex analysts said they anticipate a quick jump to the $82,000 to $84,000 range, followed by a “period of neutralization.”

Fernandes concluded that the current structure looks like “incomplete capitulation.” Until the market can flush out the $479 million in daily realized losses and reclaim institutional conviction, the $85,000 level remains the cycle’s primary “fair-value battlefield.”

Analysts are assembling an early case for a renewed altcoin cycle entering 2026, pointing to a combination of rising altcoin activity on Binance, a strengthening AltSeason Index, and a macro structure that could support broader altcoin participation even as Bitcoin remains a dominant driver of the market.

While the signs are encouraging, observers caution that not all indicators have crossed into definitive “altseason” territory. The nuanced picture suggests a potential rotation of risk appetite within the crypto market rather than a guaranteed, wholesale shift away from Bitcoin.

Key takeaways

• Altcoin performance shows resilience: the percentage of coins trading above their 200-day moving average on Binance has climbed to around 21%, a level last observed in September 2025, signaling renewed investor interest but not yet a full-blown altseason.
• On-chain and exchange momentum build: rising altcoin trading volume on centralized exchanges, excluding the five largest cryptocurrencies, coincides with a crossing signal in the altcoin volume trend, suggesting possible capital rotation from Bitcoin into mid- and small-cap alts.
• AltSeason breadth remains limited: the 90-day AltSeason Index sits at 28.6, well below the 75% threshold historically associated with a full altseason, indicating that breadth across the top alts has yet to broaden meaningfully.
• Total market structure hints at a potential breakout: TOTAL2, the combined market cap of non-Bitcoin assets, appears to be breaking upward from a multi-year consolidation, with some analysts projecting a possible surge akin to post-2021 movements, though the path remains uncertain as Bitcoin dominance has firmed recently.

Altcoins waking up, but not yet in full gear

CryptoQuant Quicktakes presented a cautious read on altcoins: macroeconomic headwinds surrounding major geopolitical events contributed to a sharp correction in the sector, with altcoins falling more than 50% at a trough. Yet, observers noted a quiet “awakening” as risk sentiment stabilizes. Darkfost, a well-known on-chain analyst, highlighted that the share of altcoins trading above their 200-day moving average rose to 21%—the highest since September 2025—suggesting investors are quietly re-engaging with the space. He framed it as an important signal for traders seeking exposure to alts, while stressing that levels far above 21% seen in mid-2025 or late-2024 would be necessary to confirm a durable shift.”

“This represents a crucial indicator for those looking to gain exposure.”

Nevertheless, Darkfost cautioned that the current momentum is fragile. The 21% level remains well shy of the peaks observed in prior cycles, particularly during mid-2025 and late-2024 when a majority of altcoins traded well above their 200-day moving averages. The takeaway: investors should watch for sustained gains beyond the single-digit upswings to claim a confirmed shift in trend.

CryptoOnchain added that another pillar of momentum lies in exchange activity. The analysis highlighted a steady rise in altcoin trading volume on centralized venues—excluding the top five assets—over recent weeks. A crossover event in the 30-day moving average topping the 365-day moving average served as a visual cue for a broader rotation away from the largest market cap coins into mid- and low-cap alts. The pattern, if sustained, could act as a meaningful confirmation that a broader altcoin rally is taking shape.

Altseason index and market breadth: a slow burn toward breadth expansion

The 90-day AltSeason Index advanced to 28.6, its highest in months, indicating a shift in relative performance in favor of altcoins versus Bitcoin—but still far from the traditional altseason threshold. CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 characterized the move as a quiet prelude to a larger shift, warning that the real AltSeason may still lie ahead. The current reading implies only a minority of the top 50 coins have outperformed BTC over the past three months.

Looking at market breadth, a handful of standouts have delivered outsized gains over the quarter. ZCash (ZEC), Bittensor (TAO) and Morphor (MORPHOR) were cited as notable performers, rising 98%, 72% and 68% respectively over the last three months, in contrast to Bitcoin’s roughly 17% gain over the same period. While these outsized moves catch attention, they also underscore the uneven nature of any budding altseason and the risk that a few select coins lead rather than a broad-based rally.

Total market structure: TOTAL2 and the Bitcoin dominance dynamic

Several technicians tracked TOTAL2, the cumulative market capitalization of all non-Bitcoin assets, as it emerged from a multi-year pattern of consolidation. Data shared by traders showed TOTAL2 testing the lower boundary of a broadening wedge and subsequently bouncing, a setup that has historically preceded more substantial upside in the altcoin space. One popular narrative from observers such as cryptocupra suggested that a breakout from this structure could mirror the 2021 impulse that propelled TOTAL2 into higher territory, potentially reaching as high as $8 trillion in a favorable scenario.

Alongside this, others highlighted a different constraint: Bitcoin dominance has climbed back to its highest levels since November 2025. The uptrend in BTC dominance, observed since 2023, has been a persistent reminder that Bitcoin still controls a substantial portion of market activity and risk appetite. The juxtaposition of a strengthening BTC dominance with rising altcoin activity suggests a market in a transitional phase—one where capital could rotate into altcoins if macro or on-chain signals align, but where Bitcoin remains a significant anchor for risk and liquidity.

Analysts such as Nebraskangooner and GorkemCrypto have illustrated the possible downside and upside scenarios. Nebraskangooner described TOTAL2 as breaking above the upper boundary of an ascending-triangle pattern on the daily chart, arguing that this breakout could signal further upside for altcoins so long as the breakout holds. GorkemCrypto linked a 2021 fractal to a potential future where Bitcoin dominance could ease as fresh capital flows into altcoins broaden participation, a dynamic that would be favorable to a more sustained altseason, should it materialize.

Cointelegraph’s coverage also underscored the current regime: Bitcoin dominance has been firming higher, reflecting a period in which BTC continues to outperform on a relative basis. The meta-narrative suggests that while altcoins are showing improving momentum, the dominant market force still remains Bitcoin, which may temper the pace and breadth of any emerging altseason unless altcoins begin to outpace BTC more consistently across a wider set of assets.

What to watch next

Investors should monitor whether the observed rotation signals—rising altcoin volume on centralized exchanges, and the uptick in altcoins trading above their 200-day moving averages—can sustain beyond short-term bursts. A sustained uptick in the AltSeason Index toward or past 50% breadth, accompanied by a continued expansion in TOTAL2 and a broadening set of coins outperforming BTC, would be a stronger signal that altseason is arriving in earnest.

Additionally, the BTC dominance dynamic bears watching. If Bitcoin continues to hold or extend its lead, altseason could prove slow to gain traction, requiring improvements in macro sentiment or renewed risk appetite among traders and institutions. Conversely, a sustained rotation into altcoins could redraw relative performance for the rest of 2026, particularly if the total market cap for non-Bitcoin assets breaks decisively higher and maintains momentum.

For now, the signals are cautiously optimistic: altcoins are catching a bid on multiple fronts, but the breadth of that move remains constrained. The next several weeks will be pivotal in determining whether 2026 marks the year altcoins finally step into a clearer, more durable acceleration or whether they stall again as Bitcoin continues to exert outsized influence over market flows.

A new liquidity network backed by firms including BlackRock (BLK) and Janus Henderson (JHG) is aiming to make the $15 billion tokenized Treasury fund market function better than their traditional counterparts.

Grove, a blockchain-based credit infrastructure specialist, unveiled Thursday a facility designed to provide instant stablecoin liquidity for investors exiting tokenized real-world asset funds. The platform will offer up to $1 billion in committed daily liquidity at launch.

The product, dubbed Basin, targets one of the biggest shortcomings in the fast-growing tokenized Treasury market. While blockchain-based funds promise round-the-clock trading and near-instant transfers, many still rely on traditional settlement rails when investors redeem shares, often creating delays measured in days rather than minutes.

Basin is designed to bridge that gap by advancing stablecoin liquidity against approved redemptions or transfers while the underlying fund settlement continues through normal channels. The first two tokenized funds to benefit from the facility are BlackRock’s $2.2 billion BUIDL, issued by Securitize, and the $1.1 billion Janus Henderson Anemoy Treasury Fund (JTRSY), tokenized by Centrifuge.

BlackRock and Janus Henderson are joining Basin as launch asset managers, while Securitize and Centrifuge provide tokenization infrastructure. Anchorage Digital, Galaxy Digital and FalconX will connect institutional clients to the liquidity network.

The launch comes as the tokenized U.S. Treasury sector has become one of crypto’s fastest-growing markets, expanding over 130% over the past year to surpass $15 billion in assets. Global asset managers including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and JPMorgan have rolled out tokenized products over the past years as Wall Street pushes deeper into blockchain infrastructure. Institutions increasingly use these funds to park cash in blockchain-based versions of money-market funds.

Supporters say tokenization can modernize finance by making assets programmable, easier to transfer and available for use as collateral across digital markets. But many products still mirror traditional systems operationally, limiting some of the efficiency gains blockchain technology promises.

“There’s significant potential for tokenization to improve how capital markets operate, but unlocking real benefits for investors requires addressing the underlying infrastructure,” Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s global head of digital assets, said in a statement. “By reducing settlement friction and enhancing liquidity, solutions like Grove Basin represent an important step toward making tokenized funds more efficient and more usable for institutional investors.”

“We’ve seen a few smaller facilities, but none that have come close to the size and scale of Grove’s,” said Bhaji Illuminati, CEO of Centrifuge, one of Basin’s tokenization partners, in a statement. “This is a great step towards making onchain assets better than their offchain equivalents.”

Key Highlights

• POET shares climbed more than 24% during Thursday’s premarket session following a strategic partnership announcement with Lumilens.
• An initial purchase order valued at $50M was placed by Lumilens for POET’s Electrical-Optical Interposer (EOI) technology.
• Total purchase commitments could climb to $500M throughout the five-year agreement period.
• As part of the arrangement, POET issued a warrant enabling Lumilens to acquire up to 22.92 million shares at $8.25 each, valid for nine years.
• Development samples are slated for late 2026, with volume manufacturing targeting hyperscale data center customers in 2027.

Shares of POET Technologies (POET) experienced a dramatic surge exceeding 24% in Thursday’s premarket session after the company unveiled a comprehensive supply and collaboration agreement with Lumilens Inc.

POET Technologies Inc., POET

At the heart of this arrangement lies POET’s Electrical-Optical Interposer (EOI) platform — an innovative wafer-level manufacturing methodology for producing optical engines tailored to AI-driven data center infrastructure.

Lumilens initiated the partnership with a $50 million opening purchase order for EOI-powered engines. This inaugural commitment represents merely the starting point — the comprehensive agreement establishes a structure enabling cumulative orders potentially exceeding $500 million across a five-year horizon.

This collaboration extends beyond simple procurement. The arrangement includes joint development initiatives where both organizations will collaborate on advancing the EOI platform, merging POET’s wafer-level photonic integration expertise with Lumilens’ optical chipset technology and production infrastructure.

The strategic objective involves transitioning away from conventional active-alignment production methods toward wafer-scale fabrication — effectively applying semiconductor manufacturing precision standards to optical engine creation.

Understanding the Equity Warrant Terms

Complementing the supply contract, POET extended a warrant to Lumilens allowing the purchase of up to 22,921,408 common shares priced at $8.25 per share.

Approximately 2.29 million shares under this warrant are available for immediate exercise. The remaining portion vests incrementally based on Lumilens’ future order fulfillment — scaling toward the $500 million aggregate threshold.

The warrant maintains a nine-year validity period, providing Lumilens substantial flexibility to exercise the option as the commercial partnership matures.

Lumilens CEO Ankur Singla identified GPU interconnect bandwidth as the primary constraint limiting AI infrastructure expansion, emphasizing that this collaboration aims to resolve that limitation through advanced optical networking solutions.

POET Chairman and CEO Dr. Suresh Venkatesan characterized the agreement as validation for POET’s production methodology — introducing “semiconductor-style discipline” to large-scale optical engine manufacturing.

Development Timeline and Future Plans

The collaborative development roadmap encompasses multiple technology generations, beginning with 800G and 1.6T pluggable transceiver modules before advancing to Near-Package Optics and Co-Packaged Optics architectures.

Prototype samples resulting from the joint engineering effort are anticipated by late 2026. Volume production, focused on serving hyperscale cloud providers, is scheduled for 2027.

This projected schedule depends on successful module development and qualification processes, along with manufacturing capacity expansion — typical dependencies for nascent hardware development programs.

POET shares were trading approximately 16% higher during Thursday morning activity, moderating from the premarket spike while maintaining substantial gains for the trading session.

The Bank of England (BOE) is set to ease proposed restrictions on stablecoin holdings following pressure from digital asset industry participants, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Thursday.

Sarah Breeden, deputy governor for financial stability, said the central bank’s initial plans to restrict individuals to owning up to 20,000 pounds ($27,000) per coin may have been “overly conservative,” according to the FT.

The BOE is “looking very hard at whether there are different ways we can manage what we think is an important risk as stablecoins come into play,” Breeden said in an interview.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to the value of a traditional financial asset, usually a fiat currency, mostly the U.S. dollar. They have been at the forefront of the development of mainstream digital asset adoption, helped by the establishment of formal regulatory regimes in some major jurisdictions.

The BOE’s proposed restrictions risked preventing the U.K. from being competitive in the digital economy, crypto industry participants have said.

For its part, the central bank had described the proposed cap as “temporary.”

“What we have heard from industry is that the way we have proposed to implement limits is cumbersome operationally for a temporary measure,” Breeden said. “So we are genuinely open to thinking whether there are other ways of achieving our objective.”

The BOE is also ready to lower its planned requirement that at least 40% of stablecoin-backing assets should be deposited with the central bank, earning no interest, and 60% invested in short-term U.K. government debt — requirements that were more restrictive than in markets such as the U.S.

“Not surprisingly, the industry would prefer to hold more interest-earning assets, as that goes to their bottom line,” Breeden said.

“These are important signals from the Bank of England that it is prepared to revisit its stablecoin proposals,” Katie Haries, Coinbase’s head of policy for Europe said in an emailed comment. “We’ve said for a long time that a cap on stablecoin holdings is a cap on innovation, with real and significant risks for UK competitiveness.”

The BOE did not immediately respond to CoinDesk’s request for comment.

Key Highlights

• Tim Cook accompanied President Trump’s business delegation to Beijing, where Xi Jinping promised China would become increasingly accessible to American corporations.
• AAPL shares launched Thursday trading at $298.87, approaching the 52-week peak of $300.92.
• The tech giant delivered exceptional Q2 2026 results with $111.2 billion in revenue—a 16.6% annual increase—and earnings per share of $2.01, surpassing the $1.95 analyst forecast.
• Wealth Enhancement Trust Services initiated a substantial position valued at approximately $30.1 million, establishing AAPL as its third-largest investment.
• Wall Street maintains a collective “Moderate Buy” recommendation with an average target price of $305.74.

Apple (AAPL) shares commenced Thursday’s session at $298.87, hovering just beneath the 52-week ceiling of $300.92, propelled by multiple favorable catalysts surrounding the technology titan.

Apple Inc., AAPL

The Apple chief executive was part of a seventeen-member American business contingent that accompanied President Donald Trump to China’s capital this week. At the Great Hall of the People, President Xi Jinping addressed the delegation, emphasizing that China’s business environment “will only open wider and wider.”

During the encounter, Xi expressed that China “welcomes stronger mutually beneficial co-operation with the United States” and assured that American enterprises would find “even broader prospects” within Chinese markets. Cook displayed optimism to journalists, offering both a peace sign and thumbs-up gesture after the discussions concluded.

This high-level diplomatic engagement holds substantial significance for Apple, given the company’s considerable dependence on China as both a production center and crucial sales territory. Revenue from iPhone sales across Greater China and India markets proved instrumental in powering the corporation’s latest quarterly performance.

Apple’s second-quarter 2026 financial disclosure, unveiled April 30, revealed revenue totaling $111.2 billion—representing a 16.6% year-over-year climb and exceeding Wall Street’s $109.46 billion projection. Earnings per share reached $2.01, topping analyst expectations of $1.95.

The iPhone division alone contributed $57 billion in quarterly sales, propelled by robust consumer appetite for the iPhone 17 lineup. The high-margin Services division achieved a record $31 billion milestone, maintaining gross margins exceeding 70%.

Major Institutional Accumulation

Wealth Enhancement Trust Services Inc. revealed a fresh Apple stake during the fourth quarter, purchasing 110,808 shares with an estimated value of $30.1 million. This investment now represents 3.8% of the firm’s total portfolio—ranking as its third-largest allocation.

Numerous additional institutional investors expanded their existing Apple holdings throughout the identical reporting period. Institutional stakeholders collectively control 67.73% of Apple’s total outstanding shares.

Rokos Capital Management, directed by prominent hedge fund manager Chris Rokos, maintained 643,000 Apple shares as of Q4 2025—reflecting a 4% quarterly increase.

Apple additionally elevated its quarterly dividend distribution to $0.27 per share from the prior $0.26, disbursed on May 14. The annualized dividend yield currently registers at 0.4%, accompanied by a payout ratio of 13.06%.

Wall Street Price Targets and Investor Outlook

Robert W. Baird established a $310 price objective on May 1. UBS assigned a $296 target alongside a neutral stance, also dated May 1. Maxim Group elevated the stock to “buy” status in January with a $300 projection. The consensus analyst price target presently rests at $305.74.

Among analysts monitoring the stock, 22 have published buy recommendations, 11 suggest holding, and one advises selling. The overall rating reflects “Moderate Buy.”

Enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence capabilities has contributed to the bullish sentiment enveloping the stock. Forthcoming events including WWDC are drawing intense scrutiny from the investment community for indications of Apple’s software evolution and AI roadmap.

Regarding downside considerations, tariff ambiguity persists as a concern affecting Apple’s hardware production expenses. An appellate court recently upheld a 10% worldwide tariff, which could compress profit margins if implementation continues.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, another participant in the Beijing delegation, characterized the discussions as having “went well” and described both Xi and Trump as “incredible.” Huang seeks to restore Chinese demand for Nvidia’s H200 processors—underscoring that American technology access within China remains an ongoing dialogue.

Apple’s 50-day moving average currently positions at $263.92, while the 200-day average sits at $267.00, with the stock trading substantially above both technical benchmarks as of Thursday’s market open.

Strive (ASST) said that its preferred stock will begin paying cash dividends every single business day from June 16, a first in U.S.-listed securities history.

CEO Matthew Cole called the daily dividend structure a “zero-to-one innovation,” positioning SATA as a cash yield instrument designed to compete with and improve upon traditional money market alternatives.

“SATA will be the first listed security in the history of U.S. capital markets to pay cash dividends every single Business Day,” Cole said in a statement on Thursday.

The firm maintained the Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Shares (SATA) dividend rate is at 13% per annum, but the move to daily payments from monthly lifts the effective annual percentage yield to approximately 13.88%, a 7.6 basis-point improvement over monthly payment structures, according to the statement. The increase in yield is due to the more frequent compounding process across roughly 250 business days per year.

In addition, the company has retired all outstanding debt. Following the repurchase of its remaining long-term notes payable, Strive now carries zero short or long-term debt obligations, with no margin requirements and no encumbered bitcoin, the company said in the statement.

SATA is structured similarly to Strategy’s (MSTR) equivalent, Stretch (STRC), and trading above par allows the company to issue more through an at-the-market (ATM) sales channel, raising cash to bolster its bitcoin holdings.

Strive currently holds 15,009 bitcoin, ranking it as the ninth-largest publicly traded company globally by bitcoin treasury holdings.

The company’s shares have risen about 10% this year, while Strategy has climbed 15%. Bitcoin fell about 9% in the same time period.

Read more: Strategy’s STRC preferred series gets $50 million investment from fellow BTC treasury company Strive