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Rising Treasury Yields Trigger Selloff in Bitcoin (BTC) and Stock Markets

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin (BTC) plunged from approximately $90,000 to close to $60,000 in early 2026, while equities remained resilient — but that’s changing.
  • Following the outbreak of conflict with Iran on Feb. 28, Treasury yields have surged, pushing Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures down to September levels.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.41%, marking its highest point since August 1, climbing 48 basis points since hostilities began.
  • Both cryptocurrency and stock market sentiment indicators have plunged into “extreme fear” zones during late March.
  • Retail investor pessimism has reached 52% for the next six-month outlook — the most negative reading since May 2025.

Digital asset markets experienced severe turbulence at the beginning of 2026, with Bitcoin plummeting from approximately $90,000 to near $60,000 within a five-week period. During that same timeframe, U.S. equity markets showed remarkable resilience, hovering close to all-time peaks.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

That divergence is rapidly disappearing — and not for positive reasons.

Since military operations involving Iran commenced on February 28, concerns about inflationary pressures and diminishing prospects for Federal Reserve interest rate reductions have driven U.S. Treasury yields significantly higher. This shift has started dragging equities downward, mirroring the weakness that bitcoin telegraphed several weeks ahead.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield advanced to 4.41% during early Monday trading, marking its strongest level since the beginning of August. The yield has increased by 48 basis points from when the Iranian conflict initiated. Meanwhile, the two-year Treasury yield has surged 57 basis points to reach 3.94%.

Elevating yields carry significant implications because they increase borrowing expenses throughout the broader economy — affecting everything from home mortgages to business financing. This dynamic typically dampens enthusiasm for riskier assets in equity markets.

Nasdaq futures declined to 23,890 points during Monday’s early session, representing the weakest level since September 11. S&P 500 e-mini futures tumbled to 6,505 points, similarly marking their lowest position since September.

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E-Mini S&P 500 Jun 26 (ES=F)
E-Mini S&P 500 Jun 26 (ES=F)

Bitcoin Functions as an Early Warning System

Market observers have consistently monitored bitcoin as a forward-looking gauge for overall risk sentiment. Its sharp decline during early 2026 may have served as an advance warning of the turbulence equities are currently facing.

In a recent analysis, Bloomberg Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone highlighted that bitcoin occupies a position “at the top of the risk-assets iceberg,” suggesting its deteriorating price action could represent the initial phase of a broader market correction — especially if volatility in commodities spills over into stock indices.

Bitcoin has traded within a relatively narrow range in recent weeks, oscillating between $65,000 and $75,000. Monday morning prices hovered around $68,790. However, derivatives market indicators reveal profound anxiety, with an unprecedented skew toward put options — financial instruments designed to protect against additional price declines.

Anxiety Permeates Both Asset Classes

Measures of market sentiment indicate that fear has become pervasive. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has retreated to “extreme fear” status. A comparable gauge tracking stock market sentiment has likewise experienced a sharp deterioration.

Blockchain analytics provider Alphractal characterizes this simultaneous emergence of fear across both markets as an uncommon occurrence, advising investors to maintain heightened vigilance.

Data from the American Association of Individual Investors reveals that 52% of retail market participants maintain a pessimistic view for the upcoming six months. This represents the most bearish sentiment registered since May 2025.

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Donald Trump’s 48-hour deadline concerning the Strait of Hormuz continues ticking down, contributing additional uncertainty to market psychology.

Market analyst Tony Severino highlights a recurring historical phenomenon where bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 declines to -0.5 before experiencing a dramatic reversal upward — a configuration he suggests frequently precedes significant equity market declines. That correlation metric has recently shifted back into positive territory.

“Typically there’s an initial rally that amplifies the subsequent pain,” Severino noted.

Current market pricing reflects a modest probability that the Federal Reserve might actually increase interest rates instead of implementing the anticipated cuts.

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Crypto World

Faraday Future (FFAI) Clears SEC Probe: AIxCrypto (AIXC) Soars 70% on Regulatory Relief

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FFAI Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • Faraday Future (FFAI) has received confirmation that the SEC investigation has concluded without any enforcement action against the company or individuals involved.
  • The investigation focused on the company’s 2021 SPAC merger and PIPE financing transactions, including previously issued Wells Notices that have now been resolved without charges.
  • Management says the company can now concentrate on operational priorities and explore strategic funding opportunities and partnerships.
  • AIxCrypto (AIXC), with FFAI as its majority controlling shareholder, noted the conclusion eliminates significant regulatory uncertainty.
  • AIXC shares surged approximately 70% during premarket trading hours following the announcement.

Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFAI) just received potentially its most significant positive development in recent memory. The Securities and Exchange Commission has officially terminated its inquiry into the electric vehicle company without pursuing any enforcement measures against FFAI or its leadership team.


FFAI Stock Card
Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc., FFAI

The regulatory agency had previously delivered Wells Notices connected to FFAI’s 2021 private investment in public equity (PIPE) deal and its business combination through a special purpose acquisition company. Wells Notices represent formal indications that SEC staff may recommend enforcement proceedings — making a no-action conclusion particularly significant.

The electric vehicle manufacturer confirmed the development through an official disclosure, noting that the SEC’s extensive investigation spanning multiple years has reached its conclusion.

According to FFAI’s announcement, the company now operates with “regulatory clarity” and can dedicate full attention to core operational activities. Management emphasized the ability to pursue strategic capital raises and forge new business partnerships moving forward.

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This represents a considerably clearer path than the company has enjoyed recently.

AIxCrypto’s Response

AIxCrypto (AIXC), where FFAI holds a majority controlling stake, issued its own acknowledgment of the SEC’s determination. The firm indicated that this resolution eliminates uncertainty and creates a more favorable environment for executing its strategic roadmap.

AIXC reiterated commitment to its three-tier ecosystem architecture spanning infrastructure, protocol, and application components. This encompasses development in AI Agents, Embodied AI technologies, blockchain-based coordination systems, and digital connectivity linked to tangible assets.

Market participants responded decisively. AIXC stock rocketed approximately 70% higher in premarket session following the disclosure.

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FFAI shares, meanwhile, were trading down 10.34% at publication time, potentially indicating that some market participants had already anticipated a favorable resolution or are responding to broader factors affecting the security.

Investigation Scope and Context

The SEC’s inquiry examined transactions associated with FFAI’s public market entry. The company went public through a SPAC transaction in 2021, a pathway that attracted considerable regulatory examination throughout the electric vehicle industry.

PIPE financing — representing private capital invested in public companies — constituted another component of the SEC’s review. Such arrangements proliferated during the SPAC market surge and subsequently drew increased regulatory oversight.

The delivery of Wells Notices had signaled the investigation had reached an advanced phase, rendering the no-enforcement determination a particularly meaningful outcome for the organization.

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FFAI emphasized that with regulatory proceedings concluded, the company stands ready to execute on business objectives without the burden of pending regulatory matters.

The 70% premarket surge in AIXC demonstrates the market’s perception of how intimately that company’s prospects were connected to the regulatory standing of its majority owner.

Based on current available data, no enforcement measures have been pursued against FFAI, its management team, or any associated individuals regarding this investigation.

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AUD/USD Falls Below Key Support

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AUD/USD Falls Below Key Support

As the AUD/USD chart indicates, the Australian dollar is showing weakness against the US dollar at the start of the week. Notably, we are seeing a bearish breakout below the lower boundary of an important ascending channel that had been in place since December 2025.

Among the key bearish factors:

→ increased demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset amid the United States’ involvement in large-scale military actions against Iran. US President Donald Trump has threatened strikes on Iranian power infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, while Tehran has warned of potential attacks on key US and Israeli facilities;

→ a decline in Asian equity markets, which are sensitive to disruptions in energy supplies from the Middle East. In turn, the value of the Australian dollar is closely tied to commodity exports from Australia to China;

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→ traders’ expectations ahead of inflation data due to be released on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD

On 24 February, we confirmed the validity of the ascending channel, within which we:
→ identified signs of weakness during the formation of highs A and B;
→ suggested a potential break below the channel median with a move towards the psychological level of 0.7000.

Indeed, the price failed to surpass high B and moved into the lower half of the channel in early March. As shown by the first arrow, on 3 March it briefly dipped below the psychological 0.7000 level before quickly rebounding, signalling strong demand.

However, the underlying weakness near highs A and B persisted. Between 10–12 March, bulls attempted to break through these resistance levels but failed to hold above the new high. From a Smart Money Concept perspective, this resembles a liquidity grab in the buy-side liquidity (BSL) zone — a bearish signal.

In the short term, a rebound from the March low (around 0.6950) is possible. However, when considering a broader outlook, traders should not rule out:
→ the 0.7000 level turning into resistance;
→ further development of a downward trend within an increasingly well-defined descending channel.

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BTC’s most reliable crash signal has triggered again

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Bitcoin's daily price swings in candlestick format with the MACD histogram. (TradingView)

Bitcoin bulls should be on their toes: A key momentum indicator that has been disturbingly accurate at flagging selloffs since the largest cryptocurrency hit a record high in October has just triggered.

The indicator is the moving average convergence divergence histogram, better known as the MACD. It’s just crossed below zero for the third time, indicating a renewed bearish shift in momentum.

What is MACD anyway?

Before we dive into the market signal, let’s see how the MACD works.

The indicator uses two lines. The first is the MACD line, calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. The gap between the two helps indicate momentum.

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The other is the Signal line, which is the nine-day exponential moving average of the MACD line itself.

The really interesting part, though, is the histogram. That plots the difference between the MACD and Signal lines.

When the histogram turns positive, it signals bullish momentum; when it turns negative, as now, it signals bearish momentum. In both cases, the slope’s steepness indicates how strong the momentum is.

The indicator is popular because it cuts through market noise to provide a clear picture of trend strength and changes. And right now, it’s screaming “bearish.”

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Bitcoin's daily price swings in candlestick format with the MACD histogram. (TradingView)
Bitcoin’s daily chart with the MACD histogram. (TradingView)

BTC gets crushed when MACD turns red

Since bitcoin topped out above $126,000 in October, MACD has developed an almost-perfect track record. When it turned bearish, bitcoin crashed hard. When it flipped bullish, there were weak bounces that went nowhere.

The evidence is damning. Bitcoin’s weekslong back-and-forth trading above $100,000 came to an abrupt end after the histogram crossed below zero on Nov. 3. Prices plummeted from around $106,000 to $80,000 by Nov. 21.

A brief bounce followed, as the MACD turned positive. But it was short-lived. Just two months later, on Jan. 20, the MACD flashed bearish again with bitcoin around $90,000. The result was the same as before — a face-ripping decline to nearly $60,000 by Feb. 6, once again followed by a minor bounce, backed by a positive MACD with upside capped at around $75,000.

So far, every bullish MACD cross has produced nothing but disappointing bounces that quickly fade, paving the way for deeper selloffs once the indicator turns red. It’s a strong signal that sellers are firmly in control, capable of crushing any attempts by the bulls to regain momentum.

And now, the indicator is flashing red again. Sure, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. But when a signal with such a strong track record is flashing red, traders are better off paying heed than throwing caution to the wind. Bitcoin’s resilience during the war with Iran may be about to crumble.

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ZachXBT Exposes Fake Accounts Driving Crypto Scams on X

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ZachXBT Exposes Fake Accounts Driving Crypto Scams on X

Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT said Monday he uncovered a coordinated network of accounts on X using exaggerated or fake war and geopolitical posts to lure users into crypto scams.

The investigation identified more than 10 linked X accounts allegedly purchased with follower bases that pushed sensational content and scam links, according to an X thread and screenshots shared by ZachXBT.

The fake accounts used AI to impersonate prominent social media influencers such as Mario Nawfal, flooding X with “doomposts” and driving engagement before promoting fake crypto giveaways and pump-and-dump token schemes. “Onchain evidence suggests the scheme profited six figures,” ZachXBT said, adding that the group has been farming engagement and may be preparing another scam.

The report highlights the persistent problem of fake accounts and bot activity on social media platforms like X, even as the company says it is taking steps to combat such behavior.

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Scam mechanics based on viral geopolitical posts

According to ZachXBT, the scheme started with accounts that had existing followers. These accounts repeatedly posted exaggerated war or political content, often sensational or misleading, which quickly went viral and attracted millions of views.

Once attention peaked, the fake accounts pivoted to promote fraudulent token giveaways or scam tokens. One such promotion involved the pump-and-dump crypto scam referred to as Oramama on Feb. 22, ZachXBT noted.

Source: ZachXBT

ZachXBT spotted numerous large accounts in the replies and quotes that fell for the engagement bait, only to boost the post’s reach unknowingly.

Social media’s scam problem persists despite platform changes

The revelation comes as social media platforms like X have been trying to clamp down on bots and scam activity.

Last month, X’s product chief Nikita Bier announced enhanced anti‑bot detection and removal measures, along with user flags for AI‑generated content, as part of broader efforts to curb automated spam and misinformation.

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Source: Nikita Bier

Still, the ZachXBT findings expose how quickly coordinated accounts can build engagement and mislead users.

Related: Coinbase-backed CoinDCX founders questioned in fraud case: Report

The investigator suggested that platform manipulation should lead to bans and legal consequences, calling social media users to review recent posts and account details before engaging with any content.

ZachXBT also shared a list of X users he believes to be involved in the scam in case they change usernames or deactivate their accounts.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?

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